Core Viewpoint - There is a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the labor market and recent statements from key officials [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating labor market [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of "low hiring, low firing," suggesting it may be at a critical point of worsening [2]. - Economists express concerns that the current economic situation exhibits stagflation characteristics, with high inflation and high unemployment coexisting [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly advocated for a rate cut, stating there is still room for further adjustments [3][5]. - The market's interpretation of Williams' comments led to a surge in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 40% to over 70% [3]. - The communication from top Fed officials is carefully calibrated to convey clear policy intentions while avoiding excessive market reactions [5][6]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements - Despite the growing consensus for a rate cut, some Fed officials, like Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan, expressed hesitance, citing inflation concerns [7]. - There are fundamental disagreements within the Fed regarding whether current policy is tight or loose, with some officials worried about inflation while others argue that key sectors remain under financial stress [7][8]. - The upcoming vote on the rate decision is expected to be contentious, with the final decision likely made during the meeting [9]. Group 4: Contextual Factors - The upcoming meeting will occur in a "data vacuum" due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting the Fed's access to the latest employment and inflation data [10]. - The concept of "insurance rate cuts" is being considered, where the Fed may cut rates while monitoring the economic response [10]. - Officials opposing the rate cut are signaling that the Fed is not cutting rates merely for the sake of it, which could prevent higher inflation expectations in the bond market [10].

尽管一年前以色列和黎巴嫩真主党在美国斡旋下达成了停火协议，但据以色列军方称，以色列上周日在 贝鲁特南部郊区的一次空袭中，炸死了真主党的最高军事官员。 以色列军方在一份声明中表示，此次袭击是数月来首次针对黎巴嫩首都郊区的袭击，目标是伊朗支持的 真主党代理总参谋长阿里·塔布塔拜（Ali Tabtabai）。 真主党在一份声明中证实了塔布塔拜的死讯，称他为"伟大的圣战指挥官"，并表示他"在生命的最后一 刻仍在与以色列敌人作战"，以此彰显他的资历，但没有透露他的具体角色。 真主党官员马哈茂德·卡马蒂（Mahmoud Qmati）站在哈雷特·赫雷克郊区（Haret Hreik，真主党的据 点）被炸毁的建筑物附近。他说，以色列的袭击越过了"红线"。 他补充说，真主党领导层将决定该组织是否以及如何做出回应。 袭击致五人死亡 黎巴嫩卫生部称，此次袭击造成5人死亡，28人受伤。炸弹击中了一栋多层建筑，碎片飞溅到下方主干 道上的车辆上。 路透社记者称，人们担心遭到进一步轰炸，纷纷冲出公寓楼。 2016年，美国对塔布塔拜实施制裁，认定他是真主党的重要领导人，并悬赏500万美元征集有关他的信 息。 以色列军方声明称，塔布塔拜"指挥了 ...

四名美国官员向路透社透露，随着特朗普政府加大对尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）政府的施压， 美国即将在未来数日启动委内瑞拉相关行动的新阶段。 路透社未能确认新行动的确切时间或范围，也不清楚特朗普是否已做出最终行动决定。近几周来，随着 美国与委内瑞拉关系恶化、美军向加勒比海部署兵力，有关其即将采取行动的报道激增。 其中两名美国官员表示，秘密行动可能是针对马杜罗新一轮行动的第一部分。由于美国即将采取的行动 敏感性极高，本文援引的四名官员均要求匿名。 在联邦航空管理局发出警告后，三家国际航空公司于上周六取消了从委内瑞拉出发的航班。 美国国防部将相关问题转交白宫回应，美国中央情报局（CIA）则拒绝置评。 一名政府高级官员上周六表示，对于委内瑞拉问题"不排除任何可能性"。 该匿名官员称："特朗普总统准备动用美国力量的所有要素，阻止毒品涌入我国，并将相关责任人绳之 以法。" 特朗普政府一直在权衡与委内瑞拉相关的各类选项，以打击其所谓的"马杜罗在向美国供应致命非法毒 品中所扮演的角色"。而马杜罗否认自己与非法毒品交易有任何关联。 两名美国官员向路透社透露，正在考虑的选项包括试图推翻马杜罗。 2013年上台的 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美乌代表称日内瓦会谈"取得进展"，欧洲据悉针对28条提出反提案 美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯：仍认为近期存在降息空间 美联储在12月议息会议前将无CPI报告更新 为应对法院裁决，特朗普政府准备关税备用方案 美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动 储蓄国债（电子式）将纳入个人养老金产品范围 我国卫星物联网业务商用试验正式启动 蚂蚁集团灵光App上线4天下载量破100万 美国政府据称正考虑允许英伟达对华出售H200芯片 市场盘点 上周五，尽管美联储"三把手"鸽派发言令12月降息预期有所回暖，但美元指数维持坚挺，盘中创近6个月新高，最终收跌0.056%，报100.17；美债收益率全 线走低，基准的10年期美债收益最终收报4.068%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.518%。 现货黄金盘中跌超1%后一度转涨，但尾盘再度走弱，最终收跌0.28%，报4065.9美元/盎司，且录得本月来首次周度下跌；现货白银最终收跌1.13%，报50.04 美元/盎司。 在美国力促俄 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index strengthened this week, rising for four consecutive days and surpassing the 100 mark, reaching a two-week high, driven by cooling expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, increased risk aversion, and mixed employment data [1] - Spot gold experienced volatility, initially pressured by the strong dollar, with a significant drop of nearly $100 on Monday, followed by a rebound due to weak ADP employment data [1] - International oil prices weakened overall, influenced by the resumption of exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port and rumors of US-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [1] - US stock markets faced pressure, with significant declines in technology stocks and overall market adjustments [1] Investment Bank Insights - Morgan Stanley retracted its prediction for a December rate cut, citing the resilience of the US economy [4] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that central banks may significantly purchase gold in November, maintaining a year-end gold price forecast of $4900 [4] - JPMorgan's trading division believes it is an opportune time to buy US stocks, suggesting that technical corrections may have ended [4] Major Events of the Week - The release of the September non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, complicating the outlook for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed intense internal debate regarding the necessity of a December rate cut, with many officials expressing skepticism about the need for further cuts [5] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, despite a significant increase in non-farm employment, leading to mixed signals regarding future monetary policy [6] Nvidia Earnings Report - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI chips [9] - The company's AI chip business saw a 66% revenue growth, reaching $51 billion, with fourth-quarter sales expectations set at $65 billion [9] - Despite strong earnings, US stocks experienced a significant market reversal, with concerns about overvaluation in AI stocks leading to substantial sell-offs [11] Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated a cautious approach to raising interest rates, with a focus on data-driven policy decisions [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package, raising concerns about the country's fiscal health and the yen's depreciation [12] US-Saudi Relations - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited the White House to discuss military and economic cooperation, including a strategic defense agreement [15] - The US approved the export of advanced semiconductor chips to Saudi AI companies, indicating a strengthening of technological ties [16] Trump's Political Landscape - Trump's approval ratings have declined, with recent polls indicating dissatisfaction with his handling of economic issues and the Epstein case [17] - Trump has threatened military action in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia, signaling a shift in foreign policy stance [18]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has room for further interest rate cuts due to a weakening labor market and easing inflation risks, according to New York Fed President Williams [1] - Williams believes that monetary policy is currently in a moderately restrictive state and suggests adjustments to the federal funds rate target range to align closer to neutral [1] - Following the second consecutive rate cut in October, there is uncertainty among officials regarding support for a third cut in December, with market expectations indicating a 50% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting [1][2] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% over the past year, raising concerns among officials about inflation [2] - Williams emphasizes the need to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably while avoiding excessive risks to the labor market [2] - He anticipates that tariffs will continue to push prices higher next year, but expects inflation to return to the path towards 2% by 2027 [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 据CNN报道，白宫正在为内阁可能出现的人事更迭做准备，多名知情人士称，一旦美国总统特朗普的 本届任期满一周年，内阁的变动可能会打破这一团队此前相对稳定的格局。 报道还指出，到目前为止，由各部部长、署长和主任组成的特朗普内阁整体相对稳定，这是有意为之， 因为接近总统的官员希望避免重演特朗普第一任期内人事更迭频繁的形象。不过，随着特朗普在明年1 月完成重返白宫后的首个完整年度，这种情况可能会发生变化。 然而，白宫新闻秘书莱维特回应报道称："内阁不会发生变化，无论CNN多么希望看到这种情况。这家 媒体靠戏剧性事件来生存。" 可能的人事变动 据CNN报道，至少一个可能出现变动的联邦机构是国土安全部，这一由克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem） 领导的联邦机构负责落实特朗普在竞选期间提出的"大规模驱逐"承诺。 消息人士还表示，能源部也可能出现人事变化，该部门目前由前科罗拉多州水力压裂行业高管克里斯· 赖特（Chris Wright）掌舵，而他与白宫的关系在近几个月中已经出现裂痕。 尽管相关讨论仍在进行中，但官员们强调，尚未作出任何决定，预计至少到明年年初，内阁 ...

乌克兰总统泽连斯基告诉议员，尽管因日益扩大的腐败丑闻而面临要求其罢免叶尔马克的巨大压力，但 他仍将支持这位位高权重的幕僚长。 据不愿透露姓名的知情人士透露，继上周两名内阁成员辞职后，泽连斯基誓言要惩罚所有涉案官员，但 他同时也警告议员们，如果在战时向乌克兰领导层施加压力从而破坏稳定，他们将为此承担责任。 叶尔马克是泽连斯基的亲密盟友，在基辅拥有巨大的权力，他并未卷入此次腐败丑闻，但议员们认为他 应对7月份一项失败的计划负责，该计划旨在取消乌克兰反腐败机构的独立性，此举曾引发基辅盟友的 一致批评。 泽连斯基与议员们的这次交流发生在他最亲密的盟友之一蒂穆尔·明迪奇（Timur Mindich）被指控的一 周多之后。明迪奇被指控经营一个涉及多名部长的贪污网络，旨在从国营核能运营商乌克兰国家核能发 电公司（Energoatom）窃取资金。明迪奇已逃离该国。 泽连斯基正在应对来自美国的一份和平计划草案，该草案与俄罗斯为结束这场已进入第四个年头的冲突 所设定的条件相符。这份包含28点的和平蓝图将迫使该国割让大片被俄罗斯占领的领土，限制其军队规 模，并随着时间的推移解除对莫斯科的制裁。 据知情人士透露，在周四晚些时候与本党 ...

Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment report has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold during the December meeting, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][4] - Gold prices are currently consolidating, with a stronger dollar making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3] - The U.S. labor report showed a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50,000 [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the employment report is favorable for both hawkish and dovish factions, with many Fed officials leaning towards maintaining interest rates [5] - Swap traders see only a 40% chance of a rate cut next month, down from previous expectations of a 25 basis point cut [6] - Despite a pullback from historical highs, gold has risen over 50% year-to-date, supported by ETF inflows and central bank purchases [6] Group 3 - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Ukraine's peace plan, are also being monitored by traders [7]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 全球基金管理巨头先锋集团（Vanguard） 表示，随着人工智能领域的"大规模"支出热潮推动经济强劲 增长，美联储的降息幅度将远低于华尔街的预期。 掌管着2.8万亿美元资产的先锋集团固定收益主管Sara Devereux在接受采访时表示，继今秋两次降息25 个基点之后，她预计美联储只会再降息一到两次。这一预测与市场普遍押注的到2026年底降息三到四次 形成鲜明对比。 "目前市场定价中计入了太多的美联储降息预期。市场对此过度依赖，"Devereux指出，"也许我们只会 再看到一到两次降息。" Devereux补充道，美联储可能会在"明年年中"达到利率的"中性"水平，即借贷成本既不加速也不减缓经 济增长的状态。 Devereux对芯片、数据中心和其他基础设施AI支出的乐观态度，与近期投资者的焦虑情绪相左，后者担 心科技股的涨势已经过度。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数本月下跌了约7%，大型科技集团发行的 债券价格也有所下跌。 Devereux警告称，随着市场消化包括亚马逊、Meta、Alphabet和甲骨文在内的公司发行的大量债券，企 业债价格可能会在未来几 ...