Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizing the focus on reforming the central bank's operations and reducing its intervention in the economy, particularly under the guidance of Treasury Secretary Basant [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Reform - Treasury Secretary Basant aims to create a more streamlined and efficient Federal Reserve, moving away from extensive government bond purchases and environmental regulations [2]. - Candidates for the Fed Chair position are aligning with Basant's vision of a smaller, less interventionist central bank, shifting the focus from low interest rates to operational reforms [3]. - The upcoming candidate shortlist will be submitted to Trump between Thanksgiving and Christmas, with the last interest rate meeting of the year scheduled for December 10 [3]. Group 2: Candidate Perspectives - Candidates like Waller and Bowman advocate for interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's economic agenda, while also agreeing on reducing the Fed's footprint in financial markets [3][4]. - Some candidates express concerns that quantitative easing (QE) should only be used in crises and not as a regular policy tool, indicating a desire for less frequent communication from Fed officials [4]. - Waller's approach includes reducing the resources of regional Fed banks and centralizing operations in Washington, while also cutting approximately 350 Fed positions [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Trump's endorsement of Basant highlights the need for a candidate who can reassure the markets, contrasting with his own sometimes disruptive influence [2]. - The article notes that the market's acceptance of discussions around Fed reforms has increased, which may help alleviate investor concerns about potential aggressive actions from the White House [2]. - Candidates like Rieder express optimism about economic growth driven by AI, despite advocating for significant interest rate cuts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming FOMC meeting, with discussions on future rate paths and the timing of ending the balance sheet reduction plan highlighting internal divisions among policymakers [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is nearly 100% as the current overnight loan benchmark rate is between 4% and 4.25% [1]. - Economists predict that the Fed will continue to cut rates into 2026, potentially lowering rates to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [3]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - There are significant divisions among Fed officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others are hesitant [2]. - The recent voting dynamics show that only one member opposed the last rate cut, indicating a split in opinions on the committee [2]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the labor market are a primary reason for the Fed's inclination to cut rates, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4]. - The lack of recent economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding employment and inflation [4][5]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is expected to signal the nearing end of its quantitative tightening process, which involves allowing maturing securities to roll off its $6.6 trillion balance sheet without reinvestment [5]. - There are indications of liquidity tightening, prompting expectations for a statement regarding the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction [5].

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing expectation on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve will soon end its balance sheet reduction process, with some analysts predicting a potential restart of balance sheet expansion in the near term [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting Expectations - Economists are calling for the Federal Reserve to announce the termination of quantitative tightening (QT) at the upcoming two-day policy meeting, with a general market expectation for a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [1][4]. - The unexpected and sometimes severe rise in money market rates is a core reason for analysts urging the central bank to end the balance sheet reduction [1][4]. - The use of the Standing Repo Facility indicates that previously ample liquidity in the money market is tightening, further shifting expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Pressure and QT Implications - During the QT period, indicators show that the funds withdrawn from the financial system have reached a critical point, leading many economists to believe that the QT window is officially closed if policymakers wish to maintain control over the federal funds rate [4]. - Deutsche Bank strategists expect the FOMC to announce the end of QT at the upcoming meeting, while some analysts express uncertainty about whether this will happen [4]. - Federal Reserve officials have provided vague guidance on the future of QT, with Chairman Powell mentioning that QT may end in the coming months while emphasizing the need for flexibility in balance sheet management [4]. Group 3: Potential for Market Interventions - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current QT process has reduced its holdings from approximately $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [5]. - The Fed's previous aim to withdraw excess liquidity was to ensure sufficient cash in the financial system and maintain the federal funds rate at desired levels, but there are no clear indicators for when these goals will be achieved [5]. - Some analysts suggest that the current pace of QT is nearly stagnant, and even if an announcement to terminate QT is made soon, it may not stabilize the money market as needed [5]. Group 4: Future Actions and Predictions - Analysts from JPMorgan suggest that after terminating QT, the Federal Reserve should "immediately" implement temporary market interventions and lower the borrowing rate of the Standing Repo Facility to enhance its attractiveness [6]. - Evercore ISI predicts that the Fed will need to turn to net purchases of bonds earlier than planned, estimating monthly net purchases of about $35 billion in Treasury bonds starting in the first quarter of next year [7]. - There is a consensus that the Fed's future bond purchases will primarily focus on short-term Treasury bills, while the reduction of MBS holdings may continue due to challenges [7].

由于政府停摆，劳工统计局未能发布9月非农就业报告——这一数据对评估特朗普政府收紧移民政策背 景下的就业市场活力与劳动力供给变化至关重要。截至8月（政府10月1日停摆前发布的最后一份就业报 告），美国失业率已从特朗普第二任期伊始1月的4.0%缓慢攀升至4.3%，同时招聘节奏大幅放缓，外籍 求职者数量减少在一定程度上抑制了失业率的进一步飙升。 路透社调查显示，受访经济学家几乎一致预测美联储将实施此次降息。然而，这一决定在一定程度上源 于政策惯性，而非美联储官员常强调的"数据驱动"原则。 尽管美联储官员认为当前劳动力市场供需仍基本平衡，但对经济增长前景的担忧让他们警惕企业可能进 一步削减招聘或实施裁员。亚马逊近期宣布的裁员计划以及各州失业救济申请人数的上升，均凸显了这 一风险。目前，各州就业机构仍在持续收集和发布每周失业救济申请数据，成为衡量劳动力市场健康状 况的少数可用指标之一。 通胀数据方面，上周在白宫指令下发布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告显示，物价涨幅低于预期。 受住房通胀疲软的抵消作用，汽油价格上涨及关税影响下进口商品成本上升并未推动通胀大幅走高。 值得注意的是，这份报告因涉及社会保障福利调整计算而成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly influence the independence of the Fed and its policy direction, impacting market expectations and economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Profiles - Waller is viewed as a strong candidate due to his familiarity with the Fed and strong economic forecasting abilities, making him a suitable choice [4]. - Waller is characterized as hawkish and relatively conservative, indicating a preference for tighter monetary policy [6]. - The market perceives Waller's potential appointment as a positive for dollar assets, with reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [15]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If Waller is appointed, the market is likely to interpret this as a sign of Fed independence, which would be bullish for dollar assets and diminish rate cut expectations [15]. - Should Washington be appointed instead, the market reaction would be similar to Waller's, but with slightly less intensity [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical lessons, such as Nixon's pressure on Burns, highlight the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence to avoid adverse economic consequences [19].

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced new partnerships and dismissed concerns about an "AI bubble," stating that the company's latest chips could generate up to $500 billion in revenue [2] - The GTC conference in Washington showcased Nvidia's expanding collaboration network, including partnerships with Uber, Palantir, and CrowdStrike, and highlighted the launch of a new system connecting quantum computers with AI chips [2][3] - Nvidia's flagship AI accelerators, "Blackwell" and its updated model "Rubin," are expected to drive unprecedented sales growth by 2026 [2][3] Partnerships and Collaborations - Nvidia plans to invest €1 billion (approximately $1.2 billion) in a data center in Germany in collaboration with Deutsche Telekom and has recently signed an investment agreement with Nokia [2] - The company is also working with Lucid to develop an autonomous driving platform and with CrowdStrike to create an AI cybersecurity system [5] - A partnership with Eli Lilly aims to build a powerful supercomputer for the pharmaceutical industry, utilizing over 1,000 Nvidia Blackwell AI accelerator chips [4] Market Position and Competition - Nvidia's latest generation of chips is expected to ship 20 million units, a significant increase compared to the 4 million units sold of the previous "Hopper" chip [3] - Despite Nvidia's dominance in the AI accelerator market, competition is intensifying with AMD and Broadcom entering the field, and companies like Qualcomm announcing plans to enter the AI accelerator market [4][6] - Nvidia's stock rose 5% following the conference, closing at a record $201.03, while AMD's stock has more than doubled this year, indicating investor optimism about AMD as a competitor [3][6] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Huang emphasized that AI is reshaping the global economy and that current investments in computing infrastructure are justified [6] - The company is seeking assistance from the White House and Congress to restore AI chip exports to China, which have resulted in significant revenue losses [6] - Nvidia's efforts to position itself as a key supplier for sovereign AI systems globally reflect its ambition to expand its influence beyond the U.S. market [6]

过去一周黄金遭遇猛烈抛售，而随着美联储即将下调基准利率，投资者可能正错失逢低吸纳这一贵金属 的良机。鉴于市场预期美联储将在年底前再次降息，他们或许还将获得新的入场机遇。 资产管理和关键材料公司Sprott Inc.高级执行合伙人瑞安·麦金泰尔（Ryan McIntyre）指出，价格回调虽 难以避免，但黄金"仍处于长期增长的有利位置"。他强调："全球信任体系持续瓦解，正推动对独立于 其他资产与机构的资产需求。" 他在接受MarketWatch采访时进一步表示，许多西方经济体（尤其是赤字高企、联邦债务庞大的美国） 的财政前景岌岌可危，随着主权风险上升，这可能在中长期内继续"支撑黄金走势"。 周二，纽约商品交易所最活跃的12月黄金期货合约收报每盎司3983.10美元，下跌0.9%，连续三个交易 日走低。自10月20日创下4359.40美元历史收盘高点以来，金价已回调近9%。道琼斯市场数据显示，本 月黄金累计涨幅仍接近3%，年内涨幅更是高达51%。 他向MarketWatch阐释："全球资本意识到自身对美元配置过度而对黄金配置不足，因此我们预期，在经 过近期泡沫挤压后，以所有法币计价的黄金价格将继续攀升。" 美联储最 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：美联储主席鲍威尔不是无能就是坏，将在"几个月内"离职 美国商务部长：将在日本签署4900亿美元投资协议 欧洲主要股指涨跌不一，法国CAC40指数收跌0.27%；德国DAX30指数收跌0.12%；英国富时100指数收涨0.44%；欧洲斯托克50指数收跌0.12%。 港股走势震荡，恒指收跌0.33%，报26346.14点。恒生科技指数收跌1.26%，报6093.44点。截至收盘，恒指大市成交额2427亿港元。盘面上，黄金股领跌， 体育用品板块下跌；香港本地银行股上涨，水务板块涨幅居前。个股方面，四只上市新股悉数收涨，滴普科技(01384.HK)涨150.56%，八马茶业(06980.HK) 涨86.7%，剑桥科技(06166.HK)涨33.86%，三一重工(06031.HK)涨2.82%。哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)涨5.3%，汇丰控股(00005.HK)、信义光能(00968.HK)涨超4%， 友邦保险(01299.HK)、金山软件(03888.HK)涨超3%；紫金矿业(02 ...

Group 1 - ADP Research will begin releasing weekly U.S. employment data to provide high-frequency insights into the labor market, supplementing its monthly reports [2][3] - The average new employment figure for the four weeks ending October 11 was 14,250, covering about 20% of the U.S. private sector workforce [3] - The release of this data comes amid a government shutdown, making third-party data sources increasingly valuable as official statistics are paused [3][4] Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson stated that the new weekly employment data will offer a clearer picture of the labor market during this critical economic period [4] - There is a general expectation that Federal Reserve officials will lower interest rates in response to a cooling labor market, as hiring has slowed and demand for workers has eased [4] - ADP's data is compiled in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, based on weekly payroll data from over 26 million private sector employees [4]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has reached a historical high of 6875 points, driven by positive trade negotiation signals, strong expectations for interest rate cuts, and robust corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Continuous inflow of funds is providing solid support for the stock market, with retail investors maintaining a net buying position for 23 out of the last 27 weeks [4] - Hedge funds have shifted to become net buyers of U.S. stocks following favorable inflation data that reinforced rate cut expectations [4] - Corporate stock buybacks have resumed, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a period of high buyback activity [4] Group 2: Technical and Seasonal Factors - The next resistance level for the S&P 500 index is near 7000 points, with a potential target range of 7500-7700 points if this level is breached [4] - Historical data shows that the last week of October has been one of the best-performing periods for stocks over the past 75 years [5] - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative increase of 38% since April, raising concerns about high valuations approaching bubble levels [5] Group 3: Earnings Reports and Central Bank Policies - Five of the "Big Seven" tech giants are set to report earnings this week, which will significantly impact market direction as they collectively represent about a quarter of the S&P 500 index's market capitalization [5] - There is a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a nearly 98% probability indicated by market tools [6] - Despite strong rate cut expectations, there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy paths due to persistent inflation concerns [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - The interplay of multiple favorable factors and key risks creates a battleground for the S&P 500 index as it approaches the 7000-point mark [7] - Successful navigation through the earnings season and central bank policy decisions could allow the market to continue its upward trend, while any disappointing signals could trigger a market pullback [7]