尽管政府关门总会引发政治风暴，但从历史上看，它们对市场和经济来说一直都是无关紧要的事件。不 过，这一次可能会有所不同。 政府关门一般意味着非必要雇员将被强制休假，但一旦僵局结束，他们会被召回。特朗普上周日在接受 采访时威胁说，"我们将永久性地裁掉很多我们能够裁掉的人。" 野村证券经济学家David Seif写道，对月度非农就业报告的影响要到11月份发布10月份的数据时才会显 现，届时特朗普的威胁"可能会产生比通常更严重的近期影响"。 但这又带来了另一个难题：如果政府关门持续相当长的时间，它可能会推迟关键经济数据的发布。 这是因为美国总统特朗普威胁要将部分因政府关门导致的联邦政府雇员强制休假变为永久性裁员，这可 能会对本已岌岌可危的就业状况产生更持久的影响。 如果特朗普兑现这一威胁，并成功经受住几乎肯定会再次出现的、对其行政权力的法庭挑战，那将给过 去一直以来更多是政治性而非经济性事件的政府关门，带来一个大麻烦。 "我们有理由认为，这次的关门可能不会遵循过去的先例，"巴克莱银行的公共政策高级分析师Michael McLean在一份客户报告中说。如果特朗普兑现威胁，"这将是与过去做法的重大背离，并可能给关门的 经 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is heading towards a shutdown due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over funding issues, particularly regarding healthcare subsidies and tax cuts [1][2] - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated that significant differences remain between the parties, and the President could avoid a shutdown by accepting some Democratic demands [1][2] - Senate Republican leader John Thune criticized the Democrats for refusing to approve a short-term spending bill, equating it to "taking hostages" [1][2] Group 2 - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, including the monthly non-farm payroll report, and result in federal employees being furloughed or working without pay [2][3] - The Labor Department announced that it would not release economic data during a potential shutdown, leading to a decline in U.S. stock market gains [3] - If a shutdown occurs, it would be the first since the 2018-2019 period, which lasted five weeks [4] Group 3 - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries indicated that Democrats would not accept promises of future cooperation on healthcare policy in exchange for support of a short-term spending bill [7] - Democrats are advocating for a $350 billion extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for middle-class families to prevent premium increases [7] - The Democratic agenda includes reversing cuts to medical research and blocking the White House from rescinding previously allocated funds [7]

据知情人士透露，向美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表詹米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）提交的提案 中，瑞士精炼商将把利润最低的业务转移至美国。这些因谈判涉密而要求匿名的人士表示，包括将伦敦 交易的金锭熔炼重组为纽约市场偏好的小规格金条。 美国财政部未回应置评请求。 SHMET 网讯：为说服特朗普政府降低上月实施的39%进口关税，瑞士提出投资美国黄金精炼产业 的方案。这项发达国家中最高的关税税率已实际冲击瑞士对美出口，并迫使该国下调增长预期。在总统 卡琳·凯勒-祖特尔（Karin Keller-Sutter）早前对抗特朗普的策略适得其反后，瑞士官员正考虑在能源至 农业等多领域作出让步。 瑞士政府拒绝就黄金产业置评，但表示"已优化对美提案以期迅速达成协议"。瑞士政府在一份声明 中称："将继续通过外交和政治交流推动尽快降低附加关税。" 当瑞士因特朗普关税陷入困境时，全球最大黄金精炼中心提契诺州成为焦点。尽管与美国的金条贸 易通常保持平衡，但在特朗普可能对黄金征税的预期下，套利机会导致第一季度出现巨额顺差，彻底改 变了贸易格局。 黄金贸易占瑞士对美第一季度顺差逾三分之二的扭曲现象，引发了对黄金行业的批评。从斯沃 ...

德意志银行的分析师在一份给客户的报告中写道，"ETF需求如此强劲地重返舞台，意味着现在存在两种形式的'侵略性'黄金买盘，分别来自各国央行和ETF 投资者。" 过去连续四周一直有资金流入黄金ETF，使得ETF的总黄金持有量按吨位计算已接近疫情时期的历史高点。据黄金矿商的行业组织世界黄金协会称，9月份 的资金流入量正接近100吨，为4月份以来的最快月度增长率。 金价今年已上涨超45%，其炙手可热的涨势受到对政府债务水平和通胀的担忧，以及对美元作为储备资产地位的质疑所推动。 据分析师和市场参与者称，最近这轮飙升的一个主要驱动力，是西方投资者大量涌入黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）。 周一，迫在眉睫的美国政府潜在关门危机震动市场并导致美元走低，黄金再度刷新历史新高至3830美元上方。周二亚盘，黄金涨势不停，并上破3840美元。 法国兴业银行大宗商品研究主管Michael Haigh说，"他们没有撤回这些头寸，因为最近的政策讲话和通胀都指向更低的利率和持续的通胀。" 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师John Reade表示，"害怕错过"（FOMO）的情绪正开始蔓延，先前错过了金价上涨行情的对冲基金现在正试图入场。他指出， 最大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve has created a divergence from the mainstream stance, with Miran advocating for a significant reduction in real interest rates despite inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Independence - Miran voted against a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, suggesting a 50 basis point cut instead, and called for a further reduction of 1.25 percentage points by 2025, targeting a federal funds rate range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The Federal Reserve's independence is increasingly questioned, particularly in light of political influences and the role of Congress in confirming appointments [3][4] - The current political climate raises concerns about the balance of power between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch, with potential implications for monetary policy [3][8] Group 2: Congressional Oversight and Accountability - Congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve has been criticized as weak, with multiple inquiries from Senate Democrats going unanswered [4][6] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and Congress is described as interdependent, highlighting the need for congressional support to maintain the Fed's credibility [4][5] - There is a growing concern that the executive branch is stepping into a supervisory role, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [4][8] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Context - Inflation reached a peak of 9.1% in 2022, driven by supply chain issues and significant fiscal stimulus, which were beyond the Fed's control [5] - The Federal Reserve's delayed response to rising inflation signals has been a point of contention, with some economists attributing part of the blame to the Fed's new policy framework adopted in 2020 [5][6] - The political polarization in Congress has weakened oversight of the Federal Reserve, complicating the institution's ability to navigate economic challenges [8]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 然而，目前尚不清楚特朗普将依据何种法律权限对外国电影征收100%的关税。 白宫尚未立即回应路透社关于该关税将如何实施的置评请求。华纳兄弟探索公司（Warner Bros Discovery，WBD）、康卡斯特（Comcast，CMCSA）、派拉蒙天舞公司（Paramount Skydance， PSKY）以及网飞（Netflix，NFLX）也未立即对此作出回应。 今年5月，特朗普首次提出征收电影关税的想法，但未提供太多细节，这让娱乐行业高管们无法确定该 关税是针对特定国家还是所有进口电影。 电影公司高管今年早些时候曾向路透社表示，他们对电影关税的执行方式感到"困惑"，因为现代电影的 制作、融资、后期制作和视觉特效往往分布在多个国家。 这一举措引发了法律和贸易分析师的质疑。一些分析师认为，电影属于知识产权范畴，也是全球服务贸 易的一部分，而美国在服务贸易领域通常处于顺差状态，这使得征收关税的法律依据备受质疑。 此外，与外国电影公司的联合制作日益普遍，这进一步加剧了人们对这类电影如何分类的疑问。 美国总统特朗普周一表示，他将对所有外国制作的电影征收100% ...

Group 1 - PIMCO's CEO Emmanuel Roman indicated that the effects of Trump's tariff policies have yet to materialize, potentially dragging down the outlook for the U.S. stock market [2] - Despite highlights in the U.S. economy, such as the AI data center boom, the industrial sector is facing challenges, with corporate revenues showing no growth [2] - PIMCO forecasts a return of approximately 6% for the U.S. stock market over the next three years [2] Group 2 - PIMCO is optimistic about opportunities in the asset-backed financing sector, recently leading a $26 billion debt transaction to support Meta Platforms' data center construction in Louisiana [3] - The data center market is characterized by significant demand for capital and equity, with expectations of numerous financing transactions and construction projects globally [3] - PIMCO is also bullish on natural gas due to the energy-intensive nature of data center operations, highlighting substantial investment opportunities in the fixed income market [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced plans to impose high tariffs on countries that do not produce furniture in the United States, aiming to revive the furniture industry in North Carolina [1] Industry Summary - The furniture business in North Carolina has been significantly impacted by international competition, leading to a decline in local production [1] - The proposed tariffs are intended to protect domestic manufacturers and encourage local production, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape of the furniture industry [1]

Core Insights - The current surge in gold prices is driven by two main forces: central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - Gold prices reached a new historical high of $3,830, marking a year-to-date increase of over 45% [1] - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the influence of ETFs on gold pricing has increased by 50% over the past three years, supporting their bullish target price of $4,000 for gold [1] Group 1: ETF Influence - ETF investors are experiencing one of the highest gold holdings years since the product's inception, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF being particularly popular [1] - The assets under management (AUM) for ETFs in dollar terms are 70% higher than in 2020, yet the current gold holdings of 15 million ounces are still below the 17 million ounces seen in 2020, indicating potential for growth [1][2] - A recent analysis using the Granger causality test revealed that changes in gold prices drive ETF fund flows, rather than the other way around [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Official demand from central banks is less sensitive to price changes, with an annual increase of 400 to 500 tons of gold demand over the past three years coinciding with significant price increases [4] - In contrast, jewelry demand is highly sensitive to price fluctuations, with rising gold prices leading to decreased jewelry demand, and increased jewelry demand potentially signaling a bearish outlook for gold prices [4] - ETF investors exhibit lower demand elasticity, which may explain why gold prices have consistently exceeded analyst predictions [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Recent data from Michael Hartnett's weekly fund flow report indicates a record inflow of $17.6 billion into gold funds over the past four weeks, highlighting strong demand for gold ETFs [5] - Hartnett attributes the rise in precious metal prices to inflation policies and a "war bull market," suggesting that despite being overbought from a tactical perspective, gold should be held long-term due to its structural underallocation in portfolios [5]

Core Insights - DeepSeek Company released its new model architecture DeepSeek-V3.2, which has garnered significant industry attention [1] - Cambricon announced its adaptation to DeepSeek-V3.2 and open-sourced the large model inference engine vLLM [1][2] - The DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model introduces DeepSeek Sparse Attention, optimizing training and inference efficiency for long texts [1] Company Developments - DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp is an experimental version built on V3.1-Terminus, focusing on sparse attention mechanisms [1] - The official DeepSeek applications and APIs have been updated to V3.2-Exp, with significant price reductions to encourage user testing and feedback [1] - Cambricon's adaptation to DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp indicates prior collaboration and technical communication between the two companies [2] Industry Trends - The rapid adaptation of Cambricon to the new model reflects a significant signal of deep collaboration among top Chinese tech companies [2] - The large model has a substantial size of 671GB, requiring approximately 8-10 hours to download under ideal bandwidth conditions [2] - The collaboration between leading companies in the AI chip and model sectors is seen as a strong example of innovation and cooperation in China's tech industry [2]