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日本迎“闪电大选”预期!日债收益率飙升,对冲基金疯狂做空日元
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 10:26
Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond yields have surged to their highest levels in nearly 27 years, driven by market speculation that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will leverage a promise to cut food taxes as a bargaining chip for an early election [2] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.275%, the highest since February 1999, while yields on 5-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds also reached historical highs [2] - This surge in bond yields coincides with Kishida's plans to announce an early election, which is expected to provide a clear mandate for large-scale stimulus spending [2] Group 2: Tax Policy Considerations - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is considering suspending the current 8% value-added tax on food and beverages, which could result in an additional annual loss of 5 trillion yen (approximately $31.7 billion) for the Japanese government [2] - Kishida enjoys a support rate of up to 75% in some polls, and she is expected to clarify her reasons for calling the election earlier than most analysts anticipated [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Currency Impact - Investors are concerned that Kishida's policies may worsen public finances, with analysts noting that there is little evidence of real pressure on the Japanese government bond market despite rising yields [3] - Hedge funds have significantly increased their bearish bets on the yen, with net short positions rising by 35,624 contracts, the largest increase since May 2015 [3] - The yen has fallen to its lowest level since July 2024, as traders speculate on Kishida's potential victory and subsequent stimulus measures, raising concerns about an expanding fiscal deficit [3]
欧美“离婚”倒计时:特朗普欲夺格陵兰岛,欧洲盟友准备“单飞”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 09:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the deteriorating relationship between the US and Europe since Trump's return to power, with European officials feeling that a "divorce" is now inevitable due to Trump's aggressive policies, particularly regarding Greenland [1][2] - European officials are increasingly convinced that the US under Trump is no longer a reliable trade partner or security ally, prompting discussions on how to transition to a new reality without US support [1][3] - The potential consequences of this shift could lead to a complete restructuring of the Western world, affecting economic ties and security arrangements, with Europe needing to prepare for self-defense without US assistance [2][3] Group 2 - European diplomats are contemplating a future in a "post-American era," which could end 80 years of cooperation and significantly impact NATO, with some governments seeking to rebuild relations while others accept the new reality [3][5] - The "Willing Coalition," a group of European countries including non-EU members, has been operating effectively without US involvement, focusing on multilateral solutions and maintaining communication among leaders [3][5] - The crisis over Greenland has prompted European leaders to rethink their security alliances, with discussions about forming a new European security framework that does not rely on the US [6][7] Group 3 - The EU is determined to develop self-defense capabilities by 2030, with proposals for a 100,000-strong EU standing army and the establishment of a European Security Council involving multiple member states [7][8] - Upcoming EU summits aim to address the threats posed by Trump's policies, with leaders expressing a commitment to protect European unity and security in light of these challenges [8]
全球亿万富豪资产飙至18.3万亿美元,特朗普2.0是一大推手?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 08:29
Core Insights - Oxfam's report indicates that by 2025, the wealth of global billionaires is expected to grow at three times the average rate of the past five years, reaching a historic high of $18.3 trillion, with a 16% increase amounting to $2.5 trillion [1] - Since 2020, the wealth of billionaires has surged by 81%, marking the past decade as the "golden decade for billionaires" [1] - The report highlights that one in four people globally faces food shortages, while nearly half of the population lives below the poverty line [1] Group 1 - The concentration of political influence among billionaires is alarming, with their likelihood of holding public office being 4,000 times greater than that of ordinary citizens [1] - The report links the surge in billionaire wealth to policies from the Trump administration, including tax cuts and deregulation [1][3] - Oxfam calls for national wealth gap reduction plans and higher taxes on extreme wealth, emphasizing the need for a "firewall" between capital and politics [3] Group 2 - The rise in valuations of artificial intelligence companies has provided additional unexpected gains for wealthy investors, exacerbating the wealth gap [2] - Oxfam estimates that the $2.5 trillion increase in billionaire wealth by 2025 is equivalent to the total wealth of the world's 4.1 billion poorest people [3] - The number of billionaires is projected to exceed 3,000 by 2025, with Elon Musk becoming the first individual with a net worth surpassing $500 billion [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the expanding control of billionaires over traditional and digital media, with billionaires owning more than half of the world's mainstream media outlets [4] - Notable billionaires such as Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Vincent Bolloré are highlighted for their significant media holdings [4]
拿不到和平奖就要拿格陵兰岛?特朗普新信件曝光:我现在只顾美国利益
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 08:09
Group 1 - The core message of the news revolves around President Trump's letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Støre, linking his claim over Greenland to his failure to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, suggesting a shift in focus from peace to U.S. interests [1][2] - Trump expressed that without complete control over Greenland, the world is unsafe, indicating a strong stance on U.S. territorial claims and security concerns regarding Russia [1][3] - The letter has sparked reactions from European leaders, with the EU discussing potential tariffs on approximately €93 billion (about $108 billion) worth of U.S. goods in response to Trump's threats [1] Group 2 - Trump's comments on social media emphasized that NATO has failed to protect Greenland from Russian threats, reflecting a broader concern about European security capabilities [2] - The Nobel Committee clarified that the Nobel Peace Prize is indivisible and cannot be symbolically transferred, responding to Trump's claims regarding the award [2] - The letter was reportedly shared by Trump's National Security Council with several European governments, indicating its diplomatic implications [2][3]
特朗普北极野心扩张,加拿大成下一个目标!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 06:42
据两名美国现任官员、一名高级政府官员及三名前美国高官透露,美国总统特朗普近期私下将关注重点 转向西半球的另一个目标——加拿大,近几周来他频繁向助手抱怨,认为加拿大在北极地区极易受到美 国对手的攻击,尤其强调加拿大需要增加国防开支。 在特朗普的顾问团队为其收购格陵兰岛的目标努力之际,这位美国总统私下里愈发担忧加拿大同样无力 抵御美国对手的任何侵犯,官员们称。他们表示,特朗普的推动加速了关于更广泛北极战略的内部讨 论,并有可能在今年与加拿大达成一项协议,以加强其北部边境防御。 "特朗普真的很担心美国在西半球继续处于劣势,并且正专注于解决这个问题,"其中一名官员说。 现任美国官员表示,目前没有讨论在美国北部边境沿线派驻美军。高级政府官员及现任和前任美国官员 称,与格陵兰岛不同,特朗普并未寻求购买加拿大,也未表示可能通过美国军事力量占领加拿大。 特朗普对加拿大的批评可以追溯到他的第一个任期。去年,批评达到了白热化程度,他威胁要使用"经 济力量"占领加拿大,并将其从美国的北部邻国转变为第51个州。特朗普挑起了与加拿大的贸易战,并 公开与加拿大政府争执。最近,这些公开的紧张局势有所缓和。 高级政府官员及现任和前任美国官员 ...
特朗普时隔6年亲赴达沃斯论坛,携豪华代表团搅动全球地缘经济棋局!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 06:29
Group 1 - The World Economic Forum (WEF) is experiencing heightened interest this year, largely due to the presence of U.S. President Trump and his administration, marking a significant shift in the forum's dynamics [1][4][5] - Trump's agenda, including trade policies and geopolitical maneuvers, is expected to dominate discussions at the forum, overshadowing traditional topics like climate change and diversity [2][7] - The forum will feature a record number of attendees, including over 3,000 participants, 850 CEOs, and more than 60 heads of state, indicating a strong focus on global leadership and corporate influence [6][9] Group 2 - The official agenda includes discussions on innovation, economic growth, and balancing economic development with climate protection, but the focus may shift towards U.S. policies under Trump's administration [2][5] - The forum's theme, "Spirit of Dialogue," aims to address issues like polarization and the changing global power dynamics, reflecting the current geopolitical landscape [7][8] - The impact of artificial intelligence on employment and skills is anticipated to be a significant topic of discussion, highlighting the intersection of technology and labor markets [8] Group 3 - Companies are eager to shift focus from cost-cutting to growth strategies, with many CEOs expressing a desire to explore mergers and new investment opportunities at the forum [9][10] - The transformation of the venue, "America House," into a central hub for U.S. government activities reflects the increased involvement of American officials and the strategic importance of the forum this year [3][6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, are also expected to be key discussion points among global leaders [2][4]
贝森特直言欧洲“软弱”令美国必须掌控格陵兰岛,“去美元化”再被热议!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 06:09
贝森特在全国广播公司(NBC)《与媒体见面》节目中指出,在地缘政治棋局里,取得格陵兰岛的控 制权具有关键意义。就在前一天,美国总统特朗普誓言要对反对美国收购格陵兰岛的欧盟成员国加征关 税,其中就包括长期以来一直是美国最坚定盟友之一的丹麦。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特(Scott Bessent)于上周日表示,欧洲的"软弱"使得美国掌控格陵兰岛对 全球稳定而言至关重要。与此同时,部分美国议员正对特朗普政府试图收购这块丹麦所属北极领土的举 动发出警告。 "我们是全球最强大的国家,"贝森特称,"欧洲展现的是软弱,而美国展现的是力量。" 随着美国与欧盟的紧张局势在上周日不断升级,贝森特表示,他相信欧洲领导人最终会"接受"美国掌控 格陵兰岛的提议。"我认为欧洲人会明白,这一安排对格陵兰岛最有利、对欧洲最有利,同时也对美国 最有利。" 这位美国财长称,他最近没有与特朗普讨论过是否仍在考虑动用紧急权力以武力夺取格陵兰岛。但肯塔 基州共和党籍参议员、美国参议院国土安全委员会主席兰德・保罗(Rand Paul)认为,采取这种做 法"荒诞至极",因为格陵兰岛根本不存在所谓的紧急状态。 "财政部长声称这么做是为了防范紧急状态的发生 ...
美元下跌,黄金狂飙!知名经济学家:这像极了08年次贷危机前夜
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 05:52
Core Viewpoint - A looming dollar crisis is approaching, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals like gold and silver [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with interest payments exceeding the annual defense budget [1] - The dollar index is projected to decline over 10% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance in nearly a decade [1] - In contrast, gold prices are expected to surge by 60% in 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The impending crisis is anticipated to impact the stock market, real estate bonds, and cryptocurrencies, with gold and silver being the only assets likely to thrive [1] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has significantly dropped from 72% in 1999 to 57% [2] Group 3: Political Commentary - Criticism is directed at former President Trump's trade views, particularly his assertion that the U.S. subsidizes other countries through a lack of tariffs [2] - The rising national debt, aggressive tariff policies, and increasing military threats are pushing the U.S. dollar's privileged status towards collapse [2]
特朗普扬言“不卖岛就加税”,欧盟多国斥其勒索、酝酿930亿欧元对美反制
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-19 01:55
Core Viewpoint - Major EU countries, including Germany and France, condemned President Trump's tariff threats regarding Greenland as "extortion" and proposed a series of untested economic countermeasures in response [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Threats and Responses - Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, which will increase to 25% on June 1 until an agreement for the "complete and total purchase of Greenland" is reached [1]. - The eight countries are already affected by existing tariffs of 10% and 15% from the U.S. and have deployed a small military presence to Greenland amid escalating disputes with the U.S. [1]. - EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion or restricting U.S. companies' access to the EU market as a countermeasure to Trump's tariffs [2]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Statements - Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed satisfaction with the unified message from other countries, stating that "Europe will not be extorted" [2]. - Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts despite the threats, noting the existence of checks and balances in U.S. society [3]. - French President Macron is pushing for the initiation of an "anti-coercion tool" that could limit U.S. access to public procurement, investment, or banking activities, particularly in sectors where the U.S. has a trade surplus with the EU [3]. Group 3: UK and Other EU Leaders' Positions - UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy stated that allies need to work together to resolve the dispute, emphasizing that the UK's position on Greenland is non-negotiable [4]. - The U.S. tariff threats have raised questions about the trade agreements reached with the UK and the EU, which are criticized for being unbalanced [4]. - The European Parliament is likely to suspend its work on EU-U.S. trade agreements, with the largest party's leader indicating that approval of the agreement is currently impossible [4].
金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2026年1月19日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-18 23:01
男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普因格陵兰岛向欧洲8国加税,欧盟将举行紧急会议 欧盟多国考虑对930亿欧元输欧美国商品加征关税 叙政府与"叙利亚民主力量"达成协议 特朗普:想让哈塞特继续留任原职位 载人飞船着陆缓冲技术获成功验证,为中国商业航天首次 上期所调整白银、镍期货相关合约交易限额 国投白银LOF:19日开市起至当日10:30停牌 市场盘点 上周五,特朗普表示希望让哈塞特继续留任原职位,市场猜测哈塞特出任美联储主席的机会降低,美元指数扭转跌势,最终收涨0.02%,报99.38点;基准的 10年期美债收益率最终收报4.227%,对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.592%。 投资者在近期金价创下新高后获利了结,同时地缘政治紧张局势缓和的迹象进一步削弱了黄金的避险吸引力,现货黄金最终收跌0.43%,报4595.03美元/盎 司;现货白银最终收跌2.3%,报90.08美元/盎司。 尽管美国打击伊朗的可能性已经下滑,但伊朗潜在的政治风险仍未消除。WTI原油最终收涨0.12%,报59 ...