AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 俄罗斯周一表示，其军方正分析美国是否会向乌克兰提供"战斧"巡航导弹，以用于打击俄罗斯腹地。俄 官员称，此举可能引发局势大幅升级。 美国副总统JD·万斯（JD Vance）上周日透露，美国政府正考虑乌克兰提出的获取"战斧"导弹的请求。 美国总统特朗普尚未作出最终决定，且他一直警惕俄乌冲突升级为美俄直接对抗。但如今他权衡这一举 措的事实表明，自上月在阿拉斯加峰会接待俄罗斯总统普京以来，后者拒绝达成停火协议的态度已让特 朗普深感不满。 "战斧"导弹射程达2500公里（1550英里），若从乌克兰发射，足以击中莫斯科及俄罗斯欧洲部分的大部 分地区。乌克兰总统泽连斯基上周曾向克里姆林宫官员发出警告，称他们"应该知道防空洞在哪里"。 "运用远程打击能力，不存在所谓的'安全区'。"凯洛格向福克斯新闻（Fox News）表示。 "谁来决定这些导弹的打击目标？是美方还是乌克兰自己？"佩斯科夫补充称，"这需要进行非常深入的 分析。" 普京此前已发出警告，对于"允许乌克兰使用其导弹袭击俄罗斯"的国家，俄罗斯保留打击其境内军事设 施的权利。 俄罗斯国家杜马国防委员会主席安德烈· ...

Group 1 - The A-share storage chip sector experienced a strong surge, with significant gains in semiconductor stocks, indicating global market optimism towards storage chips [1] - In September, the storage market entered a second round of price increases, with SanDisk raising prices by over 10% and Micron notifying channel partners of price hikes between 20% to 30% [1][2] - The price adjustments are attributed to supply-demand imbalances, driven by industry giants' capacity adjustments and increased demand from AI applications [2] Group 2 - Market research indicates a 72% increase in the DRAM price index over six months, with consumer SSD prices rising by 40% in just over a month [3] - The rise in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driven by the growth of AI applications, with HBM2e prices increasing by 80% and HBM3e exceeding $100 per GB [3] - Storage module manufacturers are feeling the pressure from rising prices, leading to a pause in DDR4 pricing, while companies like Xiaomi are facing margin pressures due to unexpected price increases [3]

在今天的会议上，委员会决定将现金利率维持在3.60％不变。 周二，澳洲联储决定维持现金利率在3.60%不变。该行表示，当前通胀降速放缓，但仍处于目标区间 内，经济活动有所恢复，但前景仍不确定。该央行强调维持价格稳定和充分就业的优先性，将继续关注 数据和经济前景的变化，以决定未来的政策走向。 政策声明全文 基础通胀的下降已放缓 自2022年触顶以来，通胀水平已大幅回落，因为较高的利率正在推动总需求与潜在供给逐步接近平衡。 今年二季度，整体通胀和修正均值通胀均处于2％至3％的目标区间。但最新数据虽然具有一定的波动性 和不完整性，却显示三季度通胀可能高于8月《货币政策声明》时的预期。 国内经济活动正在复苏，但前景依然不确定 二季度数据显示，私人需求复苏速度略快于预期，逐渐取代公共需求成为增长的驱动力。尤其是私人消 费正在回升，因实际家庭收入提高、金融状况指标趋于宽松。房地产市场正在走强，显示近期降息措施 正在发挥作用。家庭和企业的信贷获取依然顺畅。 多项指标显示，近期劳动力市场整体保持稳定且仍略显紧张。就业增长放缓的幅度略超预期，但8月失 业率仍维持在4.2％不变。劳动力未充分利用率依然处于低位，企业调查和实地联络 ...

澳洲联储周二维持其关键利率不变，同时警告称第三季度的通胀可能会强于预期，这促使交易员们削减 了对近期政策放松的押注。 澳洲联储委员会周二将其现金利率维持在3.6%不变，该央行今年已进行了三次降息。澳洲联储重申， 其对前景保持谨慎，未来的举措将由经济数据决定。 澳洲联储委员会在一份声明中说，"鉴于有迹象表明私人需求正在复苏，有迹象表明通胀在某些领域可 能具有持续性，且劳动力市场状况总体保持稳定，委员会决定将现金利率维持在当前水平是合适的。" 交易员们将对澳洲联储11月降息的押注削减至不足50%。澳元兑美元小幅回升，而对政策敏感的三年期 政府债券收益率则微升至3.60%。 委员会说，"房地产市场正在走强，这表明最近的降息正在产生效果，家庭和企业都能随时获得信贷。" 上周澳大利亚发布的一项月度通胀指标在8月份连续第二个月加速，达到了澳洲联储2%-3%通胀目标的 上限。经济学家们警告说，通胀数据的连续上涨表明通胀压力正在更广泛地重新加速。该央行使命的第 二部分，即充分就业，似乎已步入正轨，8月份的失业率稳定在4.2%。 这一决定出台之际，一些经济学家已将他们对澳洲联储第四次降息的预期推迟至明年，而此前他们曾预 计会在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, but concerns are growing that the upward trend may be nearing its end by 2025, with signs of overheating and potential corrections emerging [2][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has increased by 13% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have risen by 9% and 17%, respectively [2]. - The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small companies, recently hit its first historical high since 2021, benefiting from lower borrowing costs [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with a cooling but stable job market and no significant inflation spikes from trade wars, which has alleviated fears of a recession triggered by tariffs [2][3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to 4.14%, down from levels seen in June, indicating easing pressure in the bond market [3]. Speculative Trends - There are concerns about a speculative wave similar to 2021, driven by retail investors, with stocks like Opendoor Technologies surging 413% this year [3]. - The revival of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) is notable, with over 90 SPACs raising approximately $20 billion this year, the highest since 2021 [3]. IPO Performance - Newly listed companies have seen an average first-day trading increase of about 34%, marking the best performance since 2000 [4]. Sector Concerns - The transportation sector, which includes rail and air freight companies, has shown lackluster performance, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average down 0.8%, indicating declining expectations for demand [5]. - Gold and silver futures are performing well, with silver up 61%, suggesting a strong interest in inflation hedges [5]. Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 companies are currently the most expensive on record based on various valuation metrics, raising concerns about overextended stock valuations [5]. - Investors are beginning to seek undervalued stocks, particularly in sectors with stable earnings and low price-to-earnings ratios, such as financials [5].

尽管政府关门总会引发政治风暴，但从历史上看，它们对市场和经济来说一直都是无关紧要的事件。不 过，这一次可能会有所不同。 政府关门一般意味着非必要雇员将被强制休假，但一旦僵局结束，他们会被召回。特朗普上周日在接受 采访时威胁说，"我们将永久性地裁掉很多我们能够裁掉的人。" 野村证券经济学家David Seif写道，对月度非农就业报告的影响要到11月份发布10月份的数据时才会显 现，届时特朗普的威胁"可能会产生比通常更严重的近期影响"。 但这又带来了另一个难题：如果政府关门持续相当长的时间，它可能会推迟关键经济数据的发布。 这是因为美国总统特朗普威胁要将部分因政府关门导致的联邦政府雇员强制休假变为永久性裁员，这可 能会对本已岌岌可危的就业状况产生更持久的影响。 如果特朗普兑现这一威胁，并成功经受住几乎肯定会再次出现的、对其行政权力的法庭挑战，那将给过 去一直以来更多是政治性而非经济性事件的政府关门，带来一个大麻烦。 "我们有理由认为，这次的关门可能不会遵循过去的先例，"巴克莱银行的公共政策高级分析师Michael McLean在一份客户报告中说。如果特朗普兑现威胁，"这将是与过去做法的重大背离，并可能给关门的 经 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is heading towards a shutdown due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over funding issues, particularly regarding healthcare subsidies and tax cuts [1][2] - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated that significant differences remain between the parties, and the President could avoid a shutdown by accepting some Democratic demands [1][2] - Senate Republican leader John Thune criticized the Democrats for refusing to approve a short-term spending bill, equating it to "taking hostages" [1][2] Group 2 - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, including the monthly non-farm payroll report, and result in federal employees being furloughed or working without pay [2][3] - The Labor Department announced that it would not release economic data during a potential shutdown, leading to a decline in U.S. stock market gains [3] - If a shutdown occurs, it would be the first since the 2018-2019 period, which lasted five weeks [4] Group 3 - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries indicated that Democrats would not accept promises of future cooperation on healthcare policy in exchange for support of a short-term spending bill [7] - Democrats are advocating for a $350 billion extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for middle-class families to prevent premium increases [7] - The Democratic agenda includes reversing cuts to medical research and blocking the White House from rescinding previously allocated funds [7]

据知情人士透露，向美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表詹米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）提交的提案 中，瑞士精炼商将把利润最低的业务转移至美国。这些因谈判涉密而要求匿名的人士表示，包括将伦敦 交易的金锭熔炼重组为纽约市场偏好的小规格金条。 美国财政部未回应置评请求。 SHMET 网讯：为说服特朗普政府降低上月实施的39%进口关税，瑞士提出投资美国黄金精炼产业 的方案。这项发达国家中最高的关税税率已实际冲击瑞士对美出口，并迫使该国下调增长预期。在总统 卡琳·凯勒-祖特尔（Karin Keller-Sutter）早前对抗特朗普的策略适得其反后，瑞士官员正考虑在能源至 农业等多领域作出让步。 瑞士政府拒绝就黄金产业置评，但表示"已优化对美提案以期迅速达成协议"。瑞士政府在一份声明 中称："将继续通过外交和政治交流推动尽快降低附加关税。" 当瑞士因特朗普关税陷入困境时，全球最大黄金精炼中心提契诺州成为焦点。尽管与美国的金条贸 易通常保持平衡，但在特朗普可能对黄金征税的预期下，套利机会导致第一季度出现巨额顺差，彻底改 变了贸易格局。 黄金贸易占瑞士对美第一季度顺差逾三分之二的扭曲现象，引发了对黄金行业的批评。从斯沃 ...

德意志银行的分析师在一份给客户的报告中写道，"ETF需求如此强劲地重返舞台，意味着现在存在两种形式的'侵略性'黄金买盘，分别来自各国央行和ETF 投资者。" 过去连续四周一直有资金流入黄金ETF，使得ETF的总黄金持有量按吨位计算已接近疫情时期的历史高点。据黄金矿商的行业组织世界黄金协会称，9月份 的资金流入量正接近100吨，为4月份以来的最快月度增长率。 金价今年已上涨超45%，其炙手可热的涨势受到对政府债务水平和通胀的担忧，以及对美元作为储备资产地位的质疑所推动。 据分析师和市场参与者称，最近这轮飙升的一个主要驱动力，是西方投资者大量涌入黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）。 周一，迫在眉睫的美国政府潜在关门危机震动市场并导致美元走低，黄金再度刷新历史新高至3830美元上方。周二亚盘，黄金涨势不停，并上破3840美元。 法国兴业银行大宗商品研究主管Michael Haigh说，"他们没有撤回这些头寸，因为最近的政策讲话和通胀都指向更低的利率和持续的通胀。" 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师John Reade表示，"害怕错过"（FOMO）的情绪正开始蔓延，先前错过了金价上涨行情的对冲基金现在正试图入场。他指出， 最大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve has created a divergence from the mainstream stance, with Miran advocating for a significant reduction in real interest rates despite inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Independence - Miran voted against a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, suggesting a 50 basis point cut instead, and called for a further reduction of 1.25 percentage points by 2025, targeting a federal funds rate range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The Federal Reserve's independence is increasingly questioned, particularly in light of political influences and the role of Congress in confirming appointments [3][4] - The current political climate raises concerns about the balance of power between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch, with potential implications for monetary policy [3][8] Group 2: Congressional Oversight and Accountability - Congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve has been criticized as weak, with multiple inquiries from Senate Democrats going unanswered [4][6] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and Congress is described as interdependent, highlighting the need for congressional support to maintain the Fed's credibility [4][5] - There is a growing concern that the executive branch is stepping into a supervisory role, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [4][8] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Context - Inflation reached a peak of 9.1% in 2022, driven by supply chain issues and significant fiscal stimulus, which were beyond the Fed's control [5] - The Federal Reserve's delayed response to rising inflation signals has been a point of contention, with some economists attributing part of the blame to the Fed's new policy framework adopted in 2020 [5][6] - The political polarization in Congress has weakened oversight of the Federal Reserve, complicating the institution's ability to navigate economic challenges [8]