2025年，全球石油市场遭遇了多起黑天鹅事件——包括以伊战争和乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击——但 市场几乎未受影响。即便世界正变得愈发危险，但在这个能源充裕的时代，平静或许将成为新常态。 无论从何种角度衡量，2025年都是地缘政治混乱的一年，核心事件包括美国总统特朗普1月重返白宫， 以及他密集推出的一系列政策、贸易与外交举措。 能源市场的关键转折点出现在6月12日，当日以色列轰炸了伊朗境内的多处军事、政府及核设施。6月22 日，美国加入行动，发起"午夜铁锤行动"（Operation Midnight Hammer），目标直指伊朗加固的核设 施。 长期以来，美国打击伊朗一直是石油交易员眼中最主要的"末日场景"之一。外界曾预计，一旦遭到袭 击，这个伊斯兰共和国将采取报复行动，试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡——这一海湾狭窄航道承载着全球近五 分之一的石油和天然气运输。 按照以往的理论，此类灾难性事件的威胁本身就会导致油价飙升至三位数区间。 尽管在这场持续12天的以伊战争爆发初期，原油波动率指数（OVX）一度飙升至2022年初俄罗斯坦克 首次进入乌克兰以来的最高点，但此次油价的反应却异常平静。 全球基准布伦特原油期货价格从6月1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a stagnation in upward momentum as it approaches the end of the year, but analysts believe that the anticipated "Santa Claus Rally" may still occur, which typically happens during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Indicators - Historical data suggests that the absence of a year-end rally often serves as a warning signal for market conditions, as noted by the late market analyst Yale Hirsch [1]. - The S&P 500 index has the potential to reach new historical highs by year-end, with the index having set a record closing high on December 11, above 6900 points [2]. - Economic reports from the past week indicate a cooling in inflation and a slowdown in job growth, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to lower interest rates, thereby increasing investor interest in risk assets like stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Breadth and Sector Performance - The current market rebound is not limited to a few large tech stocks, as bank stocks have shown strong performance, indicating a broader market rally [4]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index has outperformed the S&P 500, and equal-weighted indices are also performing better than their market-cap-weighted counterparts, suggesting an expanding breadth of the rally [4]. - The performance of cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary stocks is closely tied to investor sentiment regarding economic strength, which is viewed positively if these stocks can rise alongside or replace underperforming AI stocks [5]. Group 3: Concerns Regarding AI Stocks - Despite optimism for a year-end rally, there are concerns regarding the valuation of AI-related stocks, particularly due to the significant capital expenditures required to support AI infrastructure [6]. - A warning signal was raised when Blue Owl Capital withdrew from a $10 billion data center project with Oracle, citing concerns over the company's rising debt levels and substantial AI spending [6].

尽管市场交投清淡，黄金价格仍在周一突破历史新高，凸显潜在趋势的强劲势头。 当前季节性因素构成支撑，但年末流动性迅速萎缩，市场焦点现已转向：多头能否将涨幅延续至年末最后几个交易日——或是获利了结将开始限制上行空 间。 过去50年，黄金在12月的季节表现 截至Simpson撰稿时，12月黄金已上涨逾4.5%，而年内实际交易时间仅剩一周左右，多头或许需要保持谨慎。 不过，Simpson认为，仅从价格走势来看，目前并无即将见顶的迹象。相对强弱指数（14日，RSI (14)）刚刚步入超买区间——这恰恰是健康上行趋势中该指 数应处的位置。 季节性因素也构成支撑：12月的日均回报率显示，黄金在圣诞前后的交易时段明显倾向于上涨，且上涨的概率相对较高。这为年末获利了结开始前的进一步 上行打开了空间。除此之外，整体前景仍具建设性，任何回调都可能遭遇强劲的逢低买入兴趣。 ............................... - - - - - - .......................... ....... ... Gold tends to perform well in the second half of ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule favorably for the White House regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) despite lower court rulings deeming them illegal [1] - Approximately $90 billion of the $174 billion in tariff revenue generated by late September came from IEEPA tariffs [2] - Companies, including Costco, are preparing to seek refunds in case the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, indicating a significant level of uncertainty in the market [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration's alternative to the tariffs, if struck down, is expected to be less flexible and slower to implement, potentially impacting national security [4]

Group 1 - The Japanese government is concerned about the recent one-sided and sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, particularly after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, indicating a potential need for intervention if the yen continues to weaken towards the 160 level [1] - Following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 7.5 basis points to 2.095%, the highest level since February 1999, while the 2-year bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.12%, the highest since 1997 [1] - Nomura Securities reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is becoming aware that the continuous depreciation of the yen could impact his political stability, suggesting that Japanese authorities may be close to taking strong action [4] Group 2 - Market participants acknowledge the possibility of further interest rate hikes but do not fully accept a rapid or aggressive rate increase path, indicating a cautious approach to trading the yen [5] - Speculative positions in the dollar-yen pair have been affected by the U.S. government shutdown, with data showing a significant decline in long positions on the yen, approaching neutral levels [5] - Analysts believe that while the Japanese Ministry of Finance can temporarily halt the yen's decline by selling dollars, this strategy may not be sustainable, especially without a shift towards a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the U.S. stock market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2026, driven by investor fears of missing out on AI-related gains while also worrying about a potential bubble burst [2][3][4] - The past 18 months have been characterized by significant sell-offs and rapid reversals, a trend likely to continue until 2026, with some strategists predicting that the AI boom will follow historical cycles of boom and bust [2][3] - Technology companies at the center of the AI investment boom have a substantial impact on the market, with their performance potentially offsetting declines in other sectors, thereby influencing the realized volatility of the S&P 500 [2][4] Group 2 - Strategists anticipate that stock volatility will be supported in 2026 due to the instability often associated with asset bubbles, predicting occasional declines exceeding 10% but also record rapid rebounds as traders realize the bubble has not burst [3][4] - UBS strategists emphasize that the question of whether the AI boom will continue or collapse makes holding contracts that increase volatility in the Nasdaq 100 index crucial for betting on both scenarios [3][4] - The VIX index is expected to maintain a median around 16 to 17 in 2026, but it could spike significantly during risk-off periods, influenced by both technical and macroeconomic factors [4][5] Group 3 - The popularity of dispersion trading, which bets on individual stock volatility rising while index volatility remains low, is expected to increase, with some funds taking contrary positions due to overcrowding in this strategy [5][6] - A fundamental volatility mechanism model proposed by strategists suggests dynamic switching between long and short volatility trades, indicating that a flattening yield curve signals buying volatility [6] - Overall, the low leverage in the U.S. corporate sector is seen as a precursor to a new AI-driven re-leveraging cycle, which could lead to higher credit spreads and stock volatility [6]

美国特使威特科夫上周日表示，过去三天在佛罗里达举行的美欧乌三方会谈旨在结束俄乌冲突，重点在 于协调各方立场，并称这些会议以及与俄罗斯谈判代表的单独会谈是富有成效的。 威特科夫在社交媒体上发文称，上周日的会谈"富有成效且具有建设性"，重点关注"乌克兰、美国和欧 洲之间的共同战略方针"；在另一篇措辞相似的帖子中，威特科夫表示他与德米特里耶夫的会谈也同 样"富有成效且具有建设性"。 "俄罗斯仍完全致力于在乌克兰实现和平，"威特科夫在帖子中说道。"俄罗斯高度重视美国为解决俄乌 冲突及重建全球安全所做的努力和支持。" 美国总统特朗普一直在向乌克兰和俄罗斯施压，要求尽快达成协议以结束这场持续近四年的冲突，但俄 罗斯希望保留其已占领的乌克兰地区，而基辅方面则拒绝割让土地。 克里姆林宫外交政策助理乌沙科夫上周日早些时候表示，乌克兰和欧洲对正在讨论的和平提案的投入并 没有改善和平前景，但他表示德米特里耶夫定于周一返回莫斯科，并将向普京汇报会谈结果。 在上周六会见俄罗斯总统普京的特使德米特里耶夫后，威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳于上周日会见了来 自乌克兰和欧洲的官员，随后又单独会见了由高级官员乌梅罗夫率领的乌克兰代表团。 "在那之后 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair indicated that the low CPI data is due to technical factors and there is no urgency to adjust monetary policy [3][10] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.38%, S&P 500 up 0.88%, and Nasdaq up 1.31% [4] - Chip stocks experienced significant gains, with Nvidia rising nearly 4% and Micron Technology up nearly 7% [4] Group 2 - WTI crude oil rose by 1.12% to $56.48 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.27% to $60.65 per barrel [4][7] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.75%, with a trading volume of HKD 221.86 billion [5] - A-share indices showed slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.66% [6] Group 3 - The Japanese central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75% [11] - The U.S. intercepted a third oil tanker near Venezuela, which may disrupt the market [13] - The Chinese government is taking steps to regulate false information related to the capital market [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing accelerated depreciation, with traders pushing it towards levels that may trigger official intervention, following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike without clear guidance on future rate paths [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading above the 157 mark, potentially marking the largest single-day increase since early October and reaching its highest level in nearly a month [1]. - The EUR/JPY exchange rate hit a record high, increasing by 1.2% during the day [1]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Responses - Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki indicated that Tokyo will take appropriate measures to address any excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market, acknowledging significant one-sided fluctuations within short time frames [3]. - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, a move that had been anticipated by policymakers, yet traders sold off the yen following the announcement [3]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda remained vague about the timing and pace of future rate hikes, leading to further depreciation of the yen [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - Since the yen/USD exchange rate surpassed the 155 mark in November, traders have begun to consider the possibility of official intervention in the currency market [4]. - The last time Japanese authorities intervened was in July 2024, when the USD/JPY rate reached 161.96, the highest level since the mid-1980s [4]. - With the upcoming Christmas holiday likely leading to thinner market trading, the volatility of the yen may increase, raising the risk of intervention becoming a more realistic possibility [4].

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a decline followed by a rebound, initially dropping below the 98 mark due to mixed non-farm data and fluctuating inflation expectations, but later recovered as US Treasury yields stabilized [1] - Gold prices maintained a high volatility pattern, attempting to breach the $4,350 to $4,370 range but failing to hold, indicating profit-taking at high levels [1] - Silver outperformed gold, reaching historical highs and showing a nearly 130% increase this year, although volatility increased significantly at these levels [1] - International oil prices continued a downward trend, influenced by concerns over oversupply and potential peace agreements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with prices hitting a four-year low before a slight rebound [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market showed significant divergence and increased volatility, initially pressured by technology stocks but rebounding mid-week due to individual stock performance and improved risk appetite [2] - Despite a collective rise in major indices on Thursday due to favorable inflation data, the overall trend for the week remained one of consolidation with structural market characteristics evident [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will soar to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, while also expressing a bearish outlook on oil prices and favoring copper as the preferred industrial metal [5] - ANZ Bank suggests that in a bullish scenario, gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered anticipates new highs for gold prices in the same year [5] - Morgan Stanley expects a slowdown in gold price increases next year, with silver lagging behind [5] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent US economic data revealed a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [6] - The November CPI data was below expectations, with overall CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January [6] - Federal Reserve officials displayed differing views on monetary policy, with some advocating for aggressive rate cuts while others suggested a more cautious approach [7] International Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the first increase in 11 months and the highest level in 30 years, indicating a shift towards tightening monetary policy [9] - The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%, the lowest in nearly three years, amidst internal policy disagreements [11][12] - The European Central Bank maintained its deposit rate at 2%, while raising inflation and economic growth forecasts for the coming years [12] Corporate Developments - Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected a hostile takeover bid from Paramount, citing concerns over the financing structure and risks associated with the proposal, while supporting a merger agreement with Netflix [24]