Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures declined due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to widespread market sell-offs [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 14, LME three-month copper fell by $104, or 0.95%, closing at $10,852.00 per ton [2]. - Other industrial metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $38.00 (1.31%), zinc down by $34.50 (1.13%), lead down by $14.00 (0.67%), and tin down by $445.00 (1.20%) [2]. - Despite the recent drop, LME copper recorded an approximate 1.3% increase for the week, having briefly surpassed the $11,000 mark on Thursday [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The sell-off was driven by reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as concerns about "overheating" inflation were expressed by Kansas City Fed President Esther George [5]. - The St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated that the current policy stance is closer to "neutral" rather than "mildly restrictive," suggesting limited room for further easing [5]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted signs of economic weakness in the U.S., with fourth-quarter GDP growth expected to fall below the previously predicted 1.9% due to government shutdown impacts [5]. Group 3: Production Data - In October 2025, China's primary aluminum production was reported at 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with cumulative production from January to October reaching 37.75 million tons, up 2.0% [5]. - Additionally, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals in October 2025 was 6.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, with cumulative production for the first ten months at 68.14 million tons, an increase of 3.1% [5].

Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October 2025 reached 3.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Cumulative production from January to October 2025 totaled 37.75 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - In October 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.95 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Cumulative production for the first ten months of 2025 was 68.14 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1]

Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October 2025 reached 3.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Cumulative production from January to October 2025 totaled 37.75 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - In October 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.95 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Cumulative production for the first ten months of 2025 was 68.14 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to demand concerns, with investors awaiting delayed U.S. economic data to assess the health of the global economy [1] Group 1: Copper Market - LME three-month copper dropped by 0.90% to $10,857 per ton, but has risen 1.31% for the week [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract for December closed down by 430 yuan or 0.49% at 86,900 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported stable economic performance in October, with ongoing transformation and growth of new economic drivers [1] - However, external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures pose challenges to stable economic operation [1] Group 3: Other Base Metals - Other base metals also experienced declines: - Shanghai aluminum for January fell by 0.68% to 21,840 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai lead for December decreased by 1.05% to 17,495 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai zinc dropped by 1.02% to 22,425 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 1.48% to 117,080 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 1.77% to 291,450 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 1.45% to $2,854.50 per ton [2] - LME zinc dropped by 1.42% to $3,011.50 per ton [2] - LME lead decreased by 0.38% to $2,070 per ton [2] - LME nickel fell by 1.01% to $14,830 per ton [2] - LME tin decreased by 1% to $36,860 per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, closing up by 0.95%, driven by improved market risk appetite and a decrease in domestic copper social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The easing of the U.S. federal government shutdown crisis has led to improved expectations for dollar liquidity, resulting in a noticeable warming of market risk appetite [1] - The hawkish stance of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic, who announced his retirement in February, has shifted expectations towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper mining sector remains tight, with ongoing attention to its impact on the smelting sector [1] - Recent downstream demand for copper has been relatively stable, and domestic refined copper social inventory has not continued to accumulate [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts, the macroeconomic outlook has turned positive, suggesting that copper prices will maintain high-level fluctuations without significant downward pressure in the short term [1] - The fundamental aspect to monitor is whether the impact from Indonesian mines can lead to a reduction in non-U.S. refined copper inventory [1]

对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，短期锡价仍将以宏观因素和供应扰动为主导。基本面端，印尼前期打击 非法锡矿导致出口短期承压，后续预计11月该国精炼锡出口量有望稳步回升。综合来看，宏观面与基本 面呈现分化格局，短期锡价预计延续偏高位震荡运行。 （文华综合） 沪锡大幅上行，主力合约最高上探299980元/吨，续创阶段新高，尾盘涨幅有所收窄，截止收盘，主力 合约收涨2.27%，报298140元/吨。锡市供应受限贯穿全年，缅甸复产进度缓慢，国内锡矿供应仍然紧 张。叠加印尼打击非法锡矿及6家被查封冶炼厂移交国企PT Timah，使得10月印尼锡锭出口锐减，引发 市场对供应担忧，刺激锡价大幅走高。 尽管缅甸佤邦地区的锡矿开采许可已获批准，但由于雨季影响和实际复产进度不及预期，当地锡矿出口 规模仍显著低于往年正常水平。今年前三季度，从缅甸进口的锡矿实物量累计同比大幅下滑约70%。与 此同时，国内冶炼企业虽积极从其他地区补充锡精矿资源，但整体供应仍显紧张，冶炼环节的锡精矿库 存持续走低，加工费长期处于低位区间，对原生锡的生产形成明显制约。此外，江西、安徽等地的再生 锡产量也同步受限，进一步加剧了国内锡原料供应的结构性压力。后续继续 ...

Group 1: Copper Inventory - The current LME copper inventory stands at 136,175 tons, with a decrease of 75 tons from the previous day [1][3] - The registered warehouse receipts for copper are 126,050 tons, while the canceled warehouse receipts amount to 10,125 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 7.44% [1][3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory has increased to 553,200 tons, reflecting a rise of 9,125 tons from the previous day [1][5] - The registered warehouse receipts for aluminum are 521,525 tons, with canceled receipts totaling 31,675 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 5.73% [1][5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - The zinc inventory has risen to 37,800 tons, showing an increase of 1,925 tons [1][9] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc are 33,900 tons, with canceled receipts at 3,900 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 10.32% [1][9] Group 4: Nickel Inventory - The current nickel inventory is 251,970 tons, which is a decrease of 144 tons from the previous day [1][13] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel are 238,086 tons, with canceled receipts amounting to 13,884 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 5.51% [1][13] Group 5: Lead Inventory - LME lead inventory is reported at 223,975 tons, reflecting a decrease of 1,250 tons [1][7] - The registered warehouse receipts for lead are 128,650 tons, with canceled receipts totaling 95,325 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 42.56% [1][7] Group 6: Tin Inventory - The tin inventory remains stable at 3,055 tons, with no changes reported [1][11] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin are 2,965 tons, with canceled receipts at 90 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 2.95% [1][11]

以下为秘鲁9月主要金属产量： | 六量 | 铜(吨) | 金(克) | 锌(吨) | 银(千克) | 铅(吨) | 锡(吨) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | をお | 240, 995 | 9, 314, 156 | 127,555 | 326, 746 | 27, 791 | 3,009 | | | -0. 7% | -4.6% | -13.0% | -6. 3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | | 同比 | 3.7% | -1.0% | 25. 5% | 11.3% | 18. 7% | 13.4% | | 1-9月累计 | 2, 048, 395 | 80, 475, 617 | 1, 117, 876 | 2, 778, 168 | 233, 191 | 25, 423 | | 同比 | 2. 7% | 0. 1% | 17.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 秘鲁能源与矿业部发布的数据显示，秘鲁9月铜产量同比增加3.7%，至240,995吨。 2025年前9个月，秘鲁铜产量约为204.8万吨，同比增长2.7%。 秘鲁为全 ...

（文华综合） 沪锡夜盘大幅上行，主力合约最高上探298500元/吨，续创阶段新高，随后维持高位震荡格局，今日盘 初涨幅仍在2%以上。锡市供应受限贯穿全年，缅甸复产进度缓慢，国内锡矿供应仍然紧张。叠加印尼 打击非法锡矿及6家被查封冶炼厂移交国企PT Timah，使得10月印尼锡锭出口锐减，引发市场对供应担 忧，刺激锡价大幅走高。 ...