Core Viewpoint - The European Commission plans to impose restrictions on the export of scrap aluminum to prevent significant outflow and ensure the availability of materials necessary for decarbonization in the industry [1] Group 1: Export Trends - The export volume of scrap aluminum from the EU is projected to reach a record 1.26 million tons in 2024, an increase of approximately 50% compared to five years ago, with most exports directed to Asia [1] - The situation has worsened due to the U.S. imposing a 50% import tariff on aluminum while only charging 15% on scrap, leading to increased U.S. imports of scrap aluminum and reduced exports from the EU [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The European Commission began monitoring exports in July and is evaluating the necessity of taking action regarding scrap aluminum exports [1] - A new measure to address the issue of scrap aluminum outflow is being prepared, which is expected to be implemented in spring 2026, aiming for a balanced approach that considers the interests of producers, recyclers, and downstream industries [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Scrap aluminum plays a crucial role in the decarbonization efforts of the industry, as recycling aluminum consumes 95% less energy compared to producing aluminum from bauxite ore [1] - The European Recycling Industries Confederation (EuRIC) opposes the restrictions, arguing that the export of scrap aluminum is a result of low regional demand and insufficient capacity for processing mixed waste within the EU [1]

国投期货高级分析师 吴江：镍和不锈钢条线是有色金属和黑色系中偏空头较为明显的两个品种，在 2024-2025年长达七个季度处于较为窄幅的低位震荡走势，中间炒作过印尼矿业政策的扰动，有色金属 整体的金融属性抬升，但无论怎样的利好，镍价和不锈钢价格始终保持着稳定的空头趋势行情，近期更 是再度击穿下方支撑12万元关口，再创多年新低。产业本身的因素仍然是贯穿多年的主导因素：①镍元 素供应过剩，中国厂商在印尼大量建厂，印尼镍矿和镍铁产能多年维持两位数增速，并最终体现为全产 业链过剩；②技术路线打通，镍铁，纯镍，硫酸镍三条路线低成本互通，产品之间无溢价；③需求平 淡，不锈钢虽有制造业提振，但地产继续拖累整体需求，三元路线受到磷酸铁锂技术路线挤压。 在以12万为震荡区间下沿，宽幅震荡了逾四个月后，沪镍期货终于作出了方向性的抉择。期价在11月的 第二个交易日放量下行，如今已下挫至五年低位。 近期镍价屡创新低，主要受哪些因素影响？镍成本支撑逻辑是否仍然有效？后市价格将怎样运行？文华 财经【机构会诊】板块邀请沪镍期货专家为您深入阐述。 【机构会诊】：近期镍价屡创新低，主要受哪些因素影响？ 一德期货投资咨询部高级分析师 谷静：从供 ...

Core Point - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended the ban on trading minerals from conflict-affected artisanal mining sites in North and South Kivu provinces for an additional six months, increasing compliance pressure on the global supply chain for tin, tantalum, and tungsten, which are critical raw materials for the electronics, automotive, and aerospace industries [1] Group 1 - The ban was originally implemented in February and is based on evidence that illegal supplies from these mines are funding armed groups in the eastern region [1] - The order, signed by Mining Minister Louis Watum Kabamba on November 3, applies to 38 mining sites in Masisi (North Kivu) and Kalehe (South Kivu) that produce coltan, tin, and tungsten ores [1] - The extension of the ban highlights ongoing challenges in ensuring ethical sourcing of minerals in conflict zones [1]

Core Points - LME copper prices fell for the second consecutive day, influenced by a slight strengthening of the US dollar, diminished hopes for further Fed rate cuts, and various macroeconomic concerns [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price decreased by $73.5, or 0.68%, closing at $10,778.5 per ton [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - Basic metal fundamentals remain unchanged, with the market awaiting delayed US economic data and more clues regarding monetary policy [4] - The strengthening US dollar makes metals priced in dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies, impacting market sentiment [4] - Current demand outlook is limited, with copper prices constrained within a narrow range and other signals appearing to deteriorate [4] Group 2: Specific Metal Performance - LME spot copper is trading at a $29 per ton discount to the three-month copper, indicating weak short-term demand [4] - LME zinc shows a $100 per ton premium for spot zinc over three-month zinc, highlighting tight supply with LME zinc inventories below 40,000 tons [5] - LME three-month aluminum fell by $45, or 1.57%, closing at $2,813.5 per ton, reaching its lowest since October 23 [5]

瑞银（UBS）重申了其对铜的建设性立场，认为即使市场在短期内经历了供需疲软期，铜的结构性紧缩 状况仍然未改。 以Daniel Major为首的瑞银分析师团队认为，现货市场"平衡但并不紧张"，一些细分市场的需求疲软， 以及与关税相关的预购积压，打压了市场情绪。 然而，矿山生产中断、评级下调和投资者对硬资产重新燃起的兴趣使投机性头寸居高不下。 瑞银团队认为，铜的配置在2026年仍然有利。他们预计需求将增长约3%，而矿山和精炼供应增长不到 1%，他们认为这将导致供应短缺、库存减少和基本面更加稳固。 然而，该团队警告称，目前的环境不太可能在短期内支撑铜价持续突破每吨11,000美元。 "由于需求不太可能在短期内产生影响，精炼产量保持不变，LME净头寸上升，我们认为，基本面收紧 不太可能为LME铜在短期内持续突破11,000美元提供催化剂。" 在精炼铜方面，尽管精矿供应紧张，且废铜可用性有限，但产量仍保持惊人的韧性。据中国国家统计局 发布的数据显示，1-9月中国精炼铜产量同比增加10.0%。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 包括菲律宾、纳米比亚和智利在内的其他国家的减产不足以抵消这一增长。瑞银 ...

以下为主要港口铝库存明细： (单位：吨) | 港山 | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | 2024年10月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 横滨 | 139,600 | 144,700 | 147,400 | | 名古屋 | 170,400 | 176,900 | 143,200 | | 大阪 | 19,100 | 19,700 | 20,800 | | 常计 | 329,100 | 341,300 | 311,400 | 日本丸红株式会社公布，2025年10月底，日本三大主要港口的铝库存下滑至329,100吨，较前月减少 3.6%。 丸红收集的数据来自横滨、名古屋和大阪港。 ...

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 325 tons to 136,050 tons, reflecting a 0.24% rise [1][4] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 550,200 tons, showing a 0.39% decline [1][5] - Zinc inventory rose by 1,000 tons to 39,975 tons, marking a 2.57% increase [1][9] - Nickel inventory increased by 5,604 tons to 257,694 tons, representing a 2.22% rise [1][13] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 150 tons to 13,425 tons [4] - In Kaohsiung, zinc inventory increased by 1,050 tons to 4,275 tons [9] - In Singapore, aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 275 tons [5] Group 3: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - Registered copper receipts stand at 126,575 tons, with cancelled receipts at 9,475 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 6.96% [2][4] - Registered aluminum receipts are at 522,800 tons, with cancelled receipts at 27,400 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 4.98% [2][5] - Registered zinc receipts are at 36,550 tons, with cancelled receipts at 3,425 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 8.57% [2][9]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices in Shanghai opened lower and continued to decline, closing down by 0.91% due to weakened macroeconomic sentiment and cooling expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent hawkish statements from some Federal Reserve officials have contributed to a decline in interest rate cut expectations for December, leading to weakened risk appetite in the market [1] - Precious metals have seen significant corrections, and non-ferrous metals are generally softening as a result of the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain around -40 USD per dry ton, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to improve significantly [1] - Despite high copper prices, social inventory depletion has been limited, and the recent drop in copper prices has led to an expansion of spot premiums [1] - Feedback from downstream sectors indicates some improvement in consumption performance, but the extent and sustainability of this improvement remain uncertain [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The financial reports from mining companies suggest limited adjustments in copper mine increments, maintaining the logic of raw material tightness [1] - The smelting sector is expected to see a continued month-on-month decline in production [1] - Import and export dynamics indicate a potential slight decrease in arrivals in November, while domestic exports may continue [1] - The market outlook suggests a high-level fluctuation in copper prices in the short term, with no significant downward pressure anticipated [1]

Group 1 - LME copper futures weakened amid a general decline in the base metals market, influenced by hawkish comments from some Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate decisions in December [1] - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 790 yuan or 0.91% to 86,450 yuan per ton [1] - As of 16:30 Beijing time, LME three-month copper dropped by 0.24% to $10,825.50 per ton, reflecting market pressures from expectations that the Fed may not lower rates [1] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced declines, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.14% to 21,725 yuan per ton, lead down 1.39% to 17,355 yuan per ton, zinc down 0.33% to 22,465 yuan per ton, nickel down 0.92% to 116,750 yuan per ton, and tin down 1.32% to 290,360 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 0.33% to $2,849 per ton, zinc decreased by 0.23% to $3,013.50 per ton, lead dropped by 0.41% to $2,055.50 per ton, and nickel declined by 0.38% to $14,835 per ton, while tin saw a slight increase of 0.08% to $36,815 per ton [2]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存整体有所回落，最新库存水平为135,725吨，位 于逾三个月相对低位。 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，11月14日当周，沪铜库存继续下滑，周度库存减少4.89%至109,407 吨。国际铜库存增加2199吨至16,583吨。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 以下为2025年11月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为381,296吨，增至2003年3月以来新高。 | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/14 | 381, 296 | 135, 725 | 109, 407 | | 2025/11/13 | 379, 439 | 136, 175 | | | 2025/11/12 | 378, 303 | 136, 250 | | | 2025/11/11 | 376, 631 | 136, 250 | | | 2025/11/10 | 372, 304 | 136, 275 | | ...