Group 1 - The Peruvian government has acknowledged the existence of large-scale informal copper mining and warned that high prices may lead to an increase in such activities in the near future [1] - Energy and Mines Minister Jorge Montero stated that the government is vigilant about informal mining, particularly in areas where mining rights belong to China Minmetals Corporation's Las Bambas copper mine [1] - The informal mining site named Apu Chunta, operated by the indigenous Pamputa community, has an estimated annual production of 30,000 tons, valued at approximately $300 million at current prices [1] Group 2 - Informal operators have encroached on exploration projects operated by Southern Copper Corp. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd., with the Zafranal project of Teck Resources also affected [2] - Despite the presence of informal mining, the overall copper production from these informal activities remains negligible compared to formal production [2]

根据最近批准的一项维护保养计划，First Quantum Minerals将每月花费约2,000万美元来维护其闲置的 Cobre Panamá铜矿。 巴拿马矿业商会会长Roderick Gutiérrez表示，将通过出售储存在矿场的铜精矿来支付成本。该公司目前 拥有12.1万吨精矿，尽管在近两年的闲置后，一些精矿已经变质。Gutiérrez在接受当地媒体采访时指 出，重新处理这些降级的材料在经济上可能不可行。 该矿的维护计划包含了最新的环境和法律规范，并预计需要六到十二个月的时间来实施，具体时间取决 于设备状况。监督工作将由十个政府部门负责，其中包括巴拿马环境部。 Cobre Panamá是一个投资达100亿美元的露天矿场项目，于2023年末因总统下令而关闭。在关闭之前， 该矿约占巴拿马GDP的5%，并为First Quantum公司贡献了约40%的年收入。该矿场的关闭对该公司以及 国家经济都造成了严重的影响。 现任总统José Raúl Mulino表示有兴趣在优先考虑国家所有权的模式下重新谈判该矿的未来。 Mulino在5月份表示："咱们要聪明些，从我们已经拥有的矿场中获取最大收益，这对我们巴拿马人来说 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have rebounded due to market corrections after a significant decline, despite ongoing supply constraints and uncertain recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [1][2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Tin prices rose by 3.14%, closing at 257,940 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of supply recovery from Myanmar, although these expectations remain unconfirmed [1] - Domestic supply of tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remains at historical lows, nearing smelter cost lines, which severely squeezes profit margins [1] - In May, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply chain [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate of domestic smelters has slightly declined due to ongoing supply chain constraints, with some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning maintenance shutdowns in June [1] - The tightening of tin concentrate and scrap supply continues to impose rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains stable, but future expectations are weak, with consumption growth in the tin end market driven by national policy support and product upgrades in the first four months of the year [1] - After a policy retreat in May, the photovoltaic market's consumption began to face pressure, while mid-year promotional activities are expected to boost demand in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - However, entering the traditional off-season in July and August, combined with high finished product inventories, may slow down the growth rate of tin terminal consumption [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent price declines have improved market sentiment for stocking up, although end customers maintain a cautious approach with general order situations [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while supply expectations have not yet materialized, the current situation remains tight, and low operating rates at smelters persist [2] - Domestic inventory has significantly decreased, while overseas stocks remain low, providing some short-term support for prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is keeping U.S. copper prices elevated compared to London Metal Exchange (LME) prices [1][3] - As of June 3, LME three-month copper closed at $9,634 per ton, up $17.50 or 0.18% [1][2] - COMEX copper contracts fell by 0.17% to $4.85 per pound, with a premium of $1,058 per ton over LME prices [3] Group 2 - The LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons or 3.10%, reaching a one-year low of 143,850 tons, providing support for LME copper prices [3] - The latest spot copper premium over three-month copper is reported at $51 per ton, indicating concerns over recent supply in the LME system [4] - China's manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 50.3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is currently experiencing supply tightness due to various factors, including the suspension of mining in Myanmar and geopolitical tensions affecting production in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The market is sensitive to any supply-related news, which can lead to significant price fluctuations. Supply Situation - The tin supply has been under pressure since the suspension of mining in Myanmar on August 1, 2023, leading to a tight global supply situation. The import volume of tin ore to China has sharply declined since the second quarter of last year due to depleting inventories [1][3] - The Alphamin Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is a significant source of tin for China, has faced production interruptions due to local conflicts, resulting in a supply gap of approximately 2,000 to 3,000 tons [3][4] - The processing fees for tin concentrate in China are at historical lows, indicating severe profit margin pressures for smelting companies [4][6] Production and Processing Challenges - The production of refined tin in China has decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year as of May 2025, with smelting plants operating at reduced capacity due to raw material shortages [6][7] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in key tin-producing provinces like Yunnan and Jiangxi remains low, with some companies entering seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures [6][7] Demand Dynamics - The demand for tin is expected to face challenges as the market enters a seasonal slowdown, with potential declines in consumption in the second half of the year [8][13] - The semiconductor industry, which has been a significant driver of tin demand, is experiencing cyclical changes, with sales expected to slow down after a peak in late 2024 [9][13] - The solar energy sector has seen increased demand for tin solder, but the growth rate may slow down after the implementation of new market rules for distributed solar projects [11][12] Future Outlook - The tin market is anticipated to remain slightly tight in the short term, with limited increases in supply expected in June. However, the situation may improve as the supply from African mines and the resumption of mining in Myanmar are monitored [7][13] - Long-term demand for tin may see an uptick if the AI industry continues to grow, potentially leading to a mismatch between supply growth and demand resilience [13]

澳新银行研究部称："美国贸易官员目前正在评估美国铜进口对当地产业的影响，未来几周将有报告出 炉。" 美元指数在盘中稍早触及的六周低点附近徘徊。 据证券时报网报道，6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个 百分点。 其他金属方面，LME三个月期铝跌0.89%，至每吨2,444美元；三个月期锌跌0.44%，至2,686美元；三个 月期铅跌0.58%，至1,969.5美元；三个月期镍跌0.98%，至15,385美元。三个月期锡下跌0.52%，至 30,550美元。 SHMET 网讯： 伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下跌，因市场担心美国可能对铜加征关税，不过美元走软限制跌势。 北京时间16:47，LME三个月期铜下跌0.69%，至每吨9,550美元。 上海期货交易所主力期铜合约下跌0.13%，至每吨77,650元。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进 口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日起生效。 这再次引发市场对铜可能被征收关税的担忧。 沪铝报每吨19,860元，下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market outlook for the second half of 2025 is characterized by a paradox of sufficient supply but potential localized shortages due to the form and location of the copper available [3][4]. Supply Dynamics - Global mine copper production is expected to increase by approximately 2.3% in 2025, exceeding 23.5 million tons, driven by projects like Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia [1]. - Refined copper production is projected to jump nearly 3% this year as smelters expand capacity, particularly in China [1]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025, more than double last year's surplus, indicating a third consecutive year of supply exceeding demand [1]. Refining Challenges - There is a bottleneck in the supply of copper concentrate, which is necessary for refining, leading to negative treatment charges for smelters [2]. - The shutdown of the Cobre Panama mine has exacerbated the concentrate supply tightness, potentially causing refined copper production to decline by 1.5% by 2026 unless scrap recovery increases [2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the apparent surplus, traders remain bullish due to historical underinvestment in large mines and the reallocation of global copper inventories due to trade policies [3]. - The U.S. warehouse inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2018, while futures exchange inventories have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating a complex supply situation [3]. Price Outlook - Experts anticipate that copper prices will continue to fluctuate rather than follow a single trend, with an average price expected to be around $9,500 per ton this year [4]. - Prices are projected to hover between $4.40 and $4.50 per pound in the latter half of the year, which is manageable for many manufacturers [4]. Potential Upside - Some analysts believe there is potential for copper prices to rise, particularly if global economic recovery, especially outside of China, gains momentum, potentially pushing prices above $10,000 per ton by 2026 [5]. - Resolution or easing of U.S.-China trade disputes could act as a bullish catalyst, releasing pent-up demand and narrowing price gaps [6].

Teck公司在周一发表的声明中称，此次非计划停产——由SAG磨机维护停机引发——不会对2025年产量 产生重大影响。Teck表示，Carmen de Andacollo矿将通过重新安排部分工厂维护工作以配合停产，来缓 解此次中断的影响。 Teck预计，Carmen de Andacollo（占2025年铜产量约10%）今年将生产4.5万至5.5万吨铜，与此前预测 一致。 National Bank Financial矿业分析师Shane Nagle在报告中指出，一个月的计划外停产可能使2025年息税折 旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）减少不到2000万美元。他称，重新安排的维护工作应有助于在下半年弥补 缺口。 Teck还宣布，智利北部Quebrada Blanca港口设施的装船机发生与上述事件无关的临时停机。Teck表示， 装船机的维修工作也预计需要约一个月时间。 6月2日（周一），Teck资源公司表示，其位于智利的Carmen de Andacollo露天铜矿因机械故障将被迫暂 停生产约一个月。 Teck表示，Quebrada Blanca矿山和加工厂的运营正常进行。由于可通过替代港口发货，此次不会对销售 产 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President plans to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, leading to a surge in aluminum premiums in the U.S. spot market [1] - The Midwest premium for duty-paid aluminum reached $0.58 per pound, or $1,279 per ton, marking a 54% increase from the previous week and a 164% rise since early 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that premiums need to rise to between $0.68 and $0.70 per pound to fully reflect the 50% import tariff [2] Group 2 - The three-month aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 0.9% to $2,466 per ton [3] - The U.S. has not built a primary aluminum smelter in 45 years, and aluminum production heavily relies on competitive pricing and secure electricity supply [3] - Emirates Global Aluminum plans to invest $4 billion to build an aluminum plant in the U.S., expected to produce its first metal by the end of the decade with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons [3]

Group 1 - Indonesia's progress in converting illegal tin mining assets to legal operations may help alleviate global supply tightness for tin, a critical material for lithium-ion batteries [1] - The Indonesian government seized five smelting plants involved in illegal mining in April, which accounted for half of the country's refining capacity [1][2] - The expected resumption of operations at these smelting plants is anticipated to increase supply in the tight market, with production projected to recover through 2025 and beyond [1][4] Group 2 - Due to the seizures, Indonesia's refined tin production is expected to decline by 30.7% in 2024, reaching 49,900 tons, marking a 20-year low [2] - Prior to the crackdown, Indonesia's annual refined tin production was at least 72,000 tons from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The government has expanded the SIMBARA tracking platform to monitor tin from mines to exports, indicating a significant shift in the industry [4] Group 3 - Analysts emphasize that while the government's recent actions are a positive step, sustained and effective enforcement will be crucial for lasting impact [5] - Regulatory hurdles are limiting producers' ability to increase output, as the new RKAB system has slowed the approval process for mining production and sales quotas [5][6] - The developments in Indonesia are expected to increase volatility in the tin market, with a projected global refined tin supply deficit of 7,600 tons by 2025 [7][8] Group 4 - Despite the recovery in Indonesian supply, other regions still face supply disruptions, indicating ongoing challenges in the global tin market [9]