摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师表示，美国总统特朗普决定将铝进口关税提高一倍至50%，这可 能会推高铝价格及其用户的成本。 分析师表示，以每磅20美分作为消费者在美国实物市场购买铝的溢价基准水平，将关税上调至50% 将"意味着未来铝价格将进一步上涨，以保持金属流入"美国。 高盛分析师表示，溢价必须上升至每磅0.68美元至0.70美元之间，才能充分反映关税上调的影响。 摩根士丹利在给客户的报告中写道，特朗普加征的关税还可能对美国的现货铝采购产生影响，因为消费 者可能会等待观望，看是否会有所逆转或者该政策是否会有所豁免。美国进口大量的铝。 他们补充称，如果过剩的金属被转移到其他地区，其他地区的溢价也可能受到抑制。美国政府最初对铝 征收25%的关税，导致一些生产商将铝转移到欧洲，引发了欧洲铝溢价自2025年初以来下跌，并支持了 废铝从欧盟流向美国。 策略师们表示，市场似乎也在押注铝关税的上调将增加对铜进口征税的可能性，特朗普政府目前正在根 据1962年《贸易扩张法》第232条对铜进口征税进行调查。这可以作为针对特定行业征收关税的理由， 这些关税旨在促进对国家安全至关重要的商品的国内生产。 不过，摩根 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $100 or 1.03% to $9,793 per ton on June 9, supported by declining inventories and optimistic sentiment regarding US-China trade talks [1][2] - LME reported a decrease in copper inventory by 10,000 tons to 122,400 tons, marking a reduction of over 50% since February [3] - The highest copper price since March 31 was reached at $9,809.5 per ton due to concerns over mine supply and reduced LME registered warehouse stocks [3] Group 2 - China's copper imports in May were 427,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 2,169,000 tons from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [3] - The copper premium at Yangshan port fell to $41 per ton, the lowest in three months, down from a peak of $103 per ton in early May [3] - Overall, industrial metals were supported by a weaker US dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for users of other currencies [3]

SHMET 网讯： 近期全球宏观市场氛围明显缓和，市场主题依旧是外贸环境，不过，英美和中美关贸协议达成令全球宏观市场情绪转暖，并对铜价形成了一定的积极影响。 在经历美国对外贸环境的极端施压后，5月初英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，市场对于全球贸易环境改善开始抱有期待，美元也由此小幅向上修复。5月 12日，商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，表示美国将修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行 政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。中美贸易谈判达成 重要共识推动市场短期乐观情绪，美股大幅跳空上行，市场风险情绪明显回升，铜价也一度受到此积极氛围提振。 此外，美联储5月议息会议召开，本次会议继续暂缓降息，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变，与市场预期一致。联储自去年9月起连续三次会 议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月以来，美联储一直暂停行动。美联储主席鲍威尔称，高关税可能导致通胀和失业率上升，当前货币政策有适度限制 性，潜在的通胀前景良好，观望是很明确的决 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined on Friday due to a stronger US dollar, but concerns over short-term supply and ongoing inventory drawdowns limited the losses [1][3] - As of June 6, LME three-month copper closed at $9,693 per ton, down $46.50 or 0.48% [2][3] - LME copper inventory decreased by 5,600 tons or 4.06%, reaching a one-year low of 132,400 tons [3] Group 2 - The US labor market showed better-than-expected job growth in May, with 139,000 new jobs added, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [3] - The US Department of Labor revised down employment data for March and April, which offset the positive outlook for May [3] - The market is awaiting results from an investigation into copper imports by Washington, which may lead to tariffs on copper imports [3] Group 3 - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1.5% increase in copper inventory this week after a period of low levels last month [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $27.50 or 1.11%, closing at $2,450.50 per ton [5] - Following President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum, the aluminum premium in the US market surged to a record high of $1,378 per ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has stabilized around $1,000 per ton, with COMEX copper showing stronger performance recently. The continuation of this premium status is under scrutiny [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Price Differences - The initial decline in the premium of COMEX copper over LME copper in early April was influenced by two main factors: the implementation of tariffs by the U.S. and concerns over global trade disruptions affecting economic growth and inflation [4]. - The strong performance of COMEX copper this year has been driven by expectations of potential increased tariffs on imported copper by the U.S., particularly following the initiation of a national security investigation into copper imports [4][5]. - Recent improvements in the global trade environment, including a warming U.S. trade stance and ongoing negotiations for tariff exemptions, have contributed to a rebound in both COMEX and LME copper prices [5]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - The premium of COMEX copper has led to a continuous increase in COMEX copper inventories, which have risen from 93,000 tons at the beginning of the year to approximately 187,000 tons, marking a 100% increase [6]. - Conversely, LME copper inventories have decreased significantly from over 270,000 tons to just above 130,000 tons, also reflecting a reduction of more than 100% [6]. - The recent tightening of the LME 0-3 spread indicates a strengthening in the market, with the spread turning into a premium structure by the end of April, reaching over $70 per ton [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ongoing influx of copper into the U.S. is expected to continue until the U.S. government finalizes its tariff measures, maintaining the high price differential [8]. - The expiration of the tariff exemption period in early July and the uncertain outcomes of trade negotiations with various countries could pose risks to copper prices [8]. - The current low inventory levels in non-U.S. regions are primarily due to the cross-regional flow of copper rather than strong demand, suggesting that the market may need to adjust to real supply and demand dynamics after the current speculative phase [8].

Group 1 - RBC Capital Markets analysts noted that copper inflow into the U.S. has supported a price surge of approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming global copper prices [1] - North American copper stocks have risen about 9% year-to-date, with Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals identified as the most favored stocks in the sector [1] - The announcement of a potential investigation into new tariffs on copper imports by President Trump in February has contributed to the increase in copper prices, as copper is essential for various products from electric vehicles to power grids [1] Group 2 - The U.S. copper imports totaled over 123,000 tons in March, significantly higher than 58,000 tons in February and 76,000 tons in January [1] - RBC strategists indicated signs of weakening demand and supply for copper, suggesting that if tariffs are not continued, it could act as a negative catalyst for prices [1] - Short-term risks to copper prices are highlighted due to the potential continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and a slowdown in the construction industry during the summer [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-month high, driven by speculative buying after breaking technical levels, declining inventory, and production halts at a major mine in Congo [1][3] - As of June 5, LME three-month copper closed at $9,739.50 per ton, up $118 or 1.23%, with an intraday high of $9,809.50, marking the highest level since March 31 [1][2] - LME copper inventory decreased by 3,350 tons or 2.37% to 138,000 tons, the lowest in nearly a year, with a nearly 50% decline year-to-date [4][5] Group 2 - The increase in copper prices was supported by concerns over the recent production halt at the Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [6] - COMEX copper for July rose 0.89% to $4.93 per pound, with a premium of $1,129 over LME prices [4] - The U.S. has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has reignited concerns over potential new tariffs on copper imports, influencing market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The global nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied in the coming years due to capacity expansion and slowing demand for nickel used in batteries and stainless steel [1] - Indonesia, the largest nickel producer with a market share of approximately 63%, has seen a surge in new nickel supply, leading to a 50% drop in benchmark prices over the past three years [1] - Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon predicts that the oversupply will continue until 2027-2028, with the three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange currently at $15,500 per ton [1] Group 2 - Nickel demand growth is being hindered by the increasing use of cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries, with Lennon revising the 2030 nickel demand forecast for the battery industry down to 967,000 tons from a previous consensus of 1.5 million tons [2] - Approximately one-quarter of global nickel producers are experiencing losses on a cash cost basis due to oversupply and falling prices [2] - Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters are facing profit margin compression, which may lead to reduced output and potential widespread cutbacks or shutdowns among smaller smelters in the near future [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - LME three-month copper price fell by $12.50 or 0.13%, closing at $9,621.50 per ton on June 4 [1][2] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,500 tons or 1.74%, reaching a near one-year low of 141,350 tons [4] Group 2: Trade Developments - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025 [3] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office sent a letter to trade partners reminding them of the upcoming deadline for trade negotiations [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics - COMEX copper price rose by 1.21% to $4.8925 per pound, with a premium over LME copper of $1,164.6 per ton [7] - LME tin led the gains among base metals, rising by $640 or 2.04%, closing at $32,018 per ton due to supply concerns [8]

Group 1 - Indonesia is preparing to establish a domestic metal trading market for nickel and other metals, with plans to launch in the first half of 2026 [1] - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer and holds the largest nickel reserves globally [1] - The government has banned nickel ore exports since 2020 to attract smelting investments and aims to exert greater influence over nickel prices, which are projected to drop to a four-year low by the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has proposed the establishment of a metal exchange, which has received government approval [1] - The initial phase of the exchange will focus on nickel pig iron contracts, with plans to expand to other nickel products and metals [1] - The APNI is studying the concept and structure of the exchange based on existing systems used by the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Group 3 - The goal of the initiative is to control the global nickel market [1] - Eric Koh from LME welcomed the plan, emphasizing the need for a regional pricing mechanism based on local supply and demand to complement global pricing [1] - Daniel McElduff from Abaxx Exchange highlighted the importance of considering the timing and regulatory environment for the plan's success [2]