Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global zinc market surplus of 72,000 tons for the period of January to July 2025, a decrease from a surplus of 185,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Summary by Category Production and Consumption - Global refined zinc production for January to July 2025 is recorded at 7,915,000 tons, slightly up from 7,864,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined zinc consumption for January to July 2025 reached 7,843,000 tons, an increase from 7,679,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Supply-Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for global refined zinc shows a surplus of 72,000 tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 185,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - The overall supply-demand balance for the year 2024 was a deficit of 156,000 tons, while in 2023, there was a surplus of 284,000 tons [1]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a surplus of 30,000 tons in the global lead market for the period of January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,000 tons during the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Summary - Global refined lead production for January to July 2025 is projected at 7,702 thousand tons, an increase from 7,537 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined lead consumption for January to July 2025 is estimated at 7,672 thousand tons, slightly up from 7,527 thousand tons in the previous year [1] - The supply-demand balance for global refined lead shows a surplus of 30 thousand tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 秘鲁矿业公司Minsur的一名高管周三表示，该公司将于10月启动通往一座地下铜矿的隧道爆破工作，预计将耗资约5亿美元，这是Justa矿山扩张计划的一部 分。 Minsur首席执行官Juan Luis Kruger在秘鲁南部阿雷基帕与矿业高管举行的论坛上表示，该地下矿场的目标是成为该国第二大矿场。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a 15-month high due to Freeport's announcement of force majeure at its Grasberg mine and a significant reduction in 2026 production guidance [1][3] - As of September 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,336.50 per ton, up $362.00 or 3.63% [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan expects a 4% decrease in copper sales volume for Q3, raising concerns about tightening supply [3] Group 2 - The Grasberg Block Cave mine experienced a fatal landslide on September 8, leading to a suspension of operations, with a phased restart not expected until mid-2026 [3] - The market has absorbed some supply tightness, but Freeport's statement indicates a potential 35% reduction in 2026 output compared to previous estimates, contributing to a 3.9% increase in copper prices [3] - The strong US dollar has put pressure on the market, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3] Group 3 - In the US, spot aluminum premiums reached a historical high of $0.74 per pound (equivalent to $1,631 per ton), nearly doubling since the increase of aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% [3] - Minsur, a Peruvian mining company, plans to start tunnel blasting for an underground copper mine in October, with an estimated cost of $500 million as part of its Justa mine expansion [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in copper prices in the Shanghai market, reaching a new high since March 26, 2025, driven by the upward trend in London copper prices [1] - Freeport-McMoRan has projected a decline of approximately 4% in consolidated copper sales volume for the third quarter, intensifying concerns over supply tightening [1]

（截至9月24日23:08分，伦铜行情走势） | 分时 | 5日 ▲ | 5分钟 | 15分钟 30分钟 60分钟 | 日线 | 周线 | 月线 | 更多周期 ▼ | | 竟价 ▼ | 畳加 ▼ | ម្រើ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合铜03 分时 成交量 持仓量 | | | | | | | | | | | 10341.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10288.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10236.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10183.9 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10131.6 | | | | | | | | W | MAI | | | | 10079.2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10026.9 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9974.50 | | | | | | | Antony | | | | | | 9 ...

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals show fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 200 tons (-0.14%) to 144,775 tons, while aluminum increased by 3,300 tons (+0.64%) to 517,150 tons [1][2] - Zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 tons (-3.00%) to 44,400 tons, while tin saw an increase of 120 tons (+4.66%) to 2,695 tons [1][2] - The registered warehouse receipts for aluminum are at 407,375 tons, with a cancellation of 109,775 tons, indicating a cancellation ratio of 21.23% [5] Group 2 - Specific locations show varied inventory changes, with Rotterdam's copper inventory decreasing by 150 tons to 17,200 tons, while Kaohsiung's aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 45,300 tons [4][5] - The registered and cancelled warehouse receipts for zinc indicate a cancellation ratio of 30.80%, with a total of 30,725 tons registered [9] - Tin inventory in various locations shows a total increase, with the registered warehouse receipts at 2,340 tons and a cancellation of 355 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 13.17% [11]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存呈区间波动格局，最新库存水平为2575吨，位于逾三个月相对高位。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，9月19日当周，沪锡库存有所去化，周度库存减少11.51%至6988吨，降至两个半月新低。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年9月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） （文华综合） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/23 | 2, 575 | | | 2025/9/22 | 2, 580 | | | 2025/9/19 | 2, 505 | 6, 988 | | 2025/9/18 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/17 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/16 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/15 | 2. 645 | | | 2025/9/12 | 2, 620 | 7,897 | | 2025/9/11 | 2, 385 | | | 2025/9/10 | 2, ...

Group 1 - Copper prices experienced slight fluctuations, closing up by 0.03%, supported by supply and demand dynamics despite cautious remarks from Powell [1] - Hudbay Minerals announced a temporary closure of its Constancia copper mine in Peru due to safety issues, but stated that this would not impact the company's annual production levels significantly [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, and recent declines in sulfuric acid prices necessitate monitoring of domestic copper smelting operations [1] Group 2 - Jin Yuan Futures noted that Powell's recent comments maintain a hawkish stance, indicating that the current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, complicating the assessment of the job market's tight balance [2] - Codelco has lowered its production guidance for the Teniente mine, and the Panama copper mine is unlikely to resume production this year, contributing to a negative outlook for spot TC [2] - Domestic refined copper is expected to see production cuts in September, with social inventories remaining low, leading to a forecast of stable copper prices with limited downside adjustment [2]

9月23日（周二），印尼国有媒体Antara周二援引该国矿业部副部长Yuliot Tanjung的话报道称，该国已 暂停了190个煤炭和矿业开采许可证，因为这些许可证未能履行修复矿山受损土地的义务或遵守生产配 额。 Yuliot Tanjung称，"这是基于矿产和煤炭总局进行的全面评估。" 数据显示，截至2024年底，该国已经发放4,600多个采矿许可证。 该国总统Prabowo Subianto曾誓言打击非法开采自然资源，其中包括采矿部门。 他称，许可证暂停与对矿产商开采后土地复垦义务的评估以及开采超过配额等问题有关。 目前尚不清楚暂停开采将对这个资源丰富的国家的煤炭和矿产产量产生多大影响。 ...