高盛表示，目前预计印尼三座年产量为50万吨的冶炼厂将于2026年中期投产，早于之前的预期。 高盛预计，2026年印尼将出现100万吨的过剩，将为2020年以来最大过剩规模。 该行表示："随着氧化铝和能源价格仍然疲软，成本通缩也将在2026年增加铝价的下行压力，限制铝价 持续上行的趋势。" 随后，特朗普在其社交媒体上表示，他将把铝进口关税从目前的25%上调至50%。钢铁和铝的关税上调 都将于6月4日生效。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月指标期铝上涨0.8%，报每吨2,463美元。 高盛预计，铝价将在2026年初跌至每吨2,100美元的低位，预计2026年和2027年的平均价格分别为2,230 美元和2,500美元，低于之前预测的2,540美元和2,800美元。 6月2日（周一），投行高盛（Goldman Sachs）将2025年下半年的铝价预测上调140美元，至每吨2,280 美元，称因市场供应过剩规模小于预期，但预计2026年初铝价将会下跌。 该行表示，贸易冲突对全球活动的影响没有预期那么严重，这促使其将对2025年全球铝需求同比增幅的 预测从1.1%上调至1.8%。 据中新社纽约5月30日电，美国总统特朗普 ...

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $118.50 or 1.25%, closing at $9,616.50 per ton on June 2 [1][2] - COMEX copper contracts reached a high of $4.9495 per pound, with the latest July contract up 3.74% at $4.8525 per pound [3] - The increase in U.S. aluminum and steel import tariffs to 50% announced by President Trump is impacting market dynamics, although copper was not directly mentioned [4][5] Group 2 - COMEX copper premium over LME copper expanded from $772 per ton to over $1,000 per ton [5] - Morgan Stanley reported that approximately 200,000 tons of additional copper have been imported into the U.S. over the past eight weeks, tightening the market outside the U.S. [6] - LME copper inventories have decreased by 45% since mid-February, reaching 148,450 tons, the lowest in nearly a year [7] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for the third consecutive month, with the PMI at 48.5% in May, down from 48.7% in April [8][9] - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight recovery in economic output [10] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for aluminum prices in the second half of 2025 by $140 to $2,280 per ton, citing smaller-than-expected market oversupply [12]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell under pressure from a stronger dollar but recorded the largest monthly gain in eight months due to tightening short-term supply, with a 4.1% increase in May [1] - LME three-month copper closed at $9,498 per ton, down $70 or 0.73% on May 30 [2] - LME registered copper inventories have decreased by 45% since mid-February, reaching 149,875 tons, the lowest level in nearly a year, supporting copper price increases [3] Group 2 - The premium of LME spot copper over three-month contracts reached $51.6 per ton, the highest since November 2022, indicating concerns over short-term supply [3] - The strong dollar and the reinstatement of tariffs by the U.S. government have dampened market optimism, putting overall pressure on industrial metals [4] - The focus is on the upcoming official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from China, a major metal-consuming country [5] Group 3 - The Yangshan copper premium, which measures China's willingness to import copper, fell by 6.5% to $86 per ton this week [6] - The Chinese commodity futures market will be closed on Monday due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of tight supply and seasonal demand weakness, with the main contract closing down 2.87% at 250,300 yuan/ton [1] - Short-term tin ore supply remains tight, but expectations for recovery are increasing as tin mines in Myanmar and Africa resume production [1] - The downstream sector is currently in a seasonal consumption lull, leading to a gradual shift towards a more relaxed fundamental outlook for tin [1] Group 2 - The supply situation in major production areas like Yunnan remains tight, and if raw material supply does not improve soon, some smelting companies may halt production for maintenance [1] - Market reactions to rumors about the resumption of production in the Wa region have been intense, but few companies have completed the payment for mining permits, indicating a cautious stance [1] - The strict border checks between China and Myanmar complicate the entry of large machinery and mining personnel, further delaying the expected recovery in production [1] Group 3 - After the May Day holiday, some downstream processing companies have gradually resumed operations, leading to a release of low-price replenishment demand, although high-price transactions remain weak [1] - Despite adjustments in U.S. tariffs supporting marginal consumption, actual export orders are still weakening on a month-on-month basis [1] - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth after last year's rapid expansion, which is directly impacting tin demand due to weak end-consumer consumption [1] Group 4 - Market sentiment has returned to rationality after initial emotional reactions, with concerns about rapid recovery of raw material supply alleviated due to slow progress in the Wa region [2] - The recent decline in market risk appetite has contributed to further downward pressure on tin prices, although prices are nearing the psychological support level for downstream buyers [2] - Attention is now focused on integer support levels as the downward trend in tin prices is expected to slow [2]

5月29日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价持稳，此前美国联邦法院制止了特朗普总统对来自美 国大多数贸易伙伴的进口商品征收全面关税的举措，市场乐观情绪支撑了铜价。 在谈到铜价前景时，Manthey指出，下行风险包括贸易不确定性等。他说，从好的方面来看，在精矿供 应持续紧张的情况下，精炼铜产量可能减少，这可能使铜价受益。 市场关注的焦点仍然是华盛顿正在进行的对潜在铜进口关税的调查，这使得COMEX期铜相对于LME指 标铜的溢价居高不下，并刺激金属流入COMEX 自有仓库的激增。 美国COMEX期铜下跌0.1%，至每磅4.70美元，使COMEX期铜对LME的溢价达到每吨792美元。 荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品分析师Ewa Manthey表示，多数基本金属价格上涨，因最高法院的裁决 提振了风险偏好，不过随着政府反对该裁决，市场可能仍会波动。 在特朗普征收所谓的对等关税后，LME期铜在4月份触及8,105美元的17个月低点，目前已反弹了近 19%。 美元走软也为市场提供了支撑，美元走软使得以美元计价的大宗商品价格对使用其他货币的买家来说变 得不那么昂贵。 伦敦时间5月29日17:00(北京时间5月30日00: ...

Group 1 - Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound made in February [1] - The organization expressed cautious optimism regarding copper price prospects, acknowledging tighter global supply conditions than previously expected and strong demand fundamentals [1] - The recent agreement between the US and China to reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days has significantly alleviated trade barriers, improving global trade confidence [1] Group 2 - Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals, the largest copper producers, reported increased production in the first quarter, with Codelco's output rising by 5.2% in April [1] - Despite the increase in domestic production, global supply growth is expected to be much lower than previously anticipated, with a revised forecast of 1.3% growth this year, down from 4.7% [1] - Cochilco predicts a 3% increase in Chile's copper production this year and a continued 3% increase in 2026, reaching 5.84 million tons [2]

5月28日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价回落，因美元走强和需求放缓的迹象抵消了LME系统 内短期供应趋紧的支撑。 然而，洋山铜溢价周三下跌5%至每吨89美元，为4月24日以来最低。 铜本月迄今已上涨了 5%，因为与4月份美国宣布对等关税时相比，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。 LME注册仓库的铜库存自2月中以来下降了43%，降至15.43万吨，为近一年来的最低水平，这为该金属 提供了支撑。 LME现货铜与三个月期铜合约之间的溢价为每吨47美元，一周前为3美元，表明短期供应趋紧。 与此同时，华盛顿仍在继续调查是否征收新的铜进口关税，这使得COMEX期铜对LME指标期铜的溢价 居高不下，并吸引更多金属进入COMEX旗下的仓库。 伦敦时间5月28日17:00(北京时间5月29日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收低31.5美元或0.33%，收报每吨9,565 美元，盘初触及两周高点9,655美元。 法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）分析师在一份报告中表示："如果征收关税，将铜运往美国的动力将停 止，我们认为这将促使更多实物流入LME。" | 5月28日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | - ...

SHMET 网讯： 征稿(作者：国海良时期货 何燕艳）--铜价反弹趋缓，产量数据同比趋缓或体现在5月，而价格下跌后消费体现出较强的韧性。因贸易谈判是长期的过程，远 期需求回落仍有隐忧。长期逻辑来看，铜金比显示目前已经创出历史新低，显示衰退预期交易充分，极端铜金比亦不可长期持续。后市应该做多铜金比，因 此铜价或可以逢低做多。回撤至74500-75600仍是买点。 一、短期TC重新回落，铜精矿供应偏紧不变 1.铜精矿供应偏紧 SMM将2025年全年新增铜精矿供应由63.8万吨下调为32.7万吨，相应的铜精矿产量增速由3.25%下调至1.15%。主要原因今年是矿山谈判大年，叠加矿品位下 降。下调的31.1万吨被摊销至26-27年，总量上看，铜精矿在本轮2017-2025年一直未能有效扩张，因矿山老龄化、资源濒临枯竭、品位下降等因素。因此 1.15%的增速在历史中仍处于相对低位，对铜价仍有支撑作用。中金公司也下调25年的铜矿增速从2.4%下降至1.8%，对应增量仅34万吨。 增量预期下调的项目包括：1）Quellaveco投产进度不及预期，我们预计2025年铜产量下滑5.37万吨。2）Grasberg Mine矿山处 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - On May 27, LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with prices reaching a two-week high earlier in the session [1] - LME three-month copper closed down $13.50 or 0.14% at $9,596.5 per ton, after hitting a peak of $9,640 since May 14 [1] - U.S. Comex copper dropped 2% to $4.74 per pound, with a premium over LME copper reaching $855 per ton [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Ivanhoe Mines announced a suspension of its production forecast due to seismic activity at its giant mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is Africa's largest copper producer [6] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicated that if the Kakula mine remains closed for the rest of the year, it could lead to a supply reduction of approximately 150,000 tons, potentially increasing copper prices [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market surplus of 17,000 tons in March, down from an 18,000-ton surplus in February [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to April, profits of large industrial enterprises in China totaled 21,170.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6] - In April, profits of large industrial enterprises in China grew by 3.0% year-on-year [6] - ICSG noted that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons in the first three months of the year, compared to a surplus of 268,000 tons in the same period last year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations for nearly two months, with a focus on whether the supply from mines can meet demand in the future [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April, zinc has faced widespread selling due to escalating international trade tensions, remaining below 22,500 points [2]. - Recent maintenance at zinc smelting plants has been higher than usual, despite stable processing fees for zinc ore [3][4]. - A significant zinc smelting plant in southern China extended its maintenance period, impacting production by an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which led to a price increase [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in social zinc inventory continues, although the demand from downstream sectors remains resilient [5]. - The real estate sector's weakness has slowed the destocking of galvanized inventory, with new construction area starting in the first four months of 2025 down 23.8% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic zinc imports have reached historical highs, contributing to a stable supply environment for smelting plants [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The mid-term outlook suggests increasing pressure on zinc supply due to the resumption of production at smelting plants and the seasonal slowdown in demand [7]. - Analysts predict that the zinc market may experience a shift towards a bearish trend as supply begins to outpace demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation starting in mid-June [7][8]. - The processing fees for zinc ore are expected to remain strong in the third quarter due to high demand, despite an anticipated oversupply of zinc ingots [8].