Short-term Insights - The order continuity for the ZunJie S800 has exceeded expectations, with significant orders recorded: 1600 for 24 hours, 2100 for 48 hours, 2600 for 72 hours, 3600 for 7 days, and 5000 for 19 days. The average daily sales are projected to be around 250 units for 72 hours to 7 days and 120 units for 7 to 19 days, indicating a stable monthly sales potential of approximately 1000 units [1]. Long-term Insights - The S800 is expected to be the first to break the foreign monopoly in the high-end sedan market, with ZunJie aiming for a 20% market share in the segment above 600,000. The market share of domestic brands in the 500,000 and above sedan market has been low, at 0.5%, 1.4%, and 5.7% for the years 2023 to 2025 [1]. - The high-end sedan segment is the lowest in market share for domestic brands due to factors such as consumer focus on brand strength and emotional value, as well as the technical challenges in sedan chassis and NVH compared to SUVs and MPVs [1]. - The domestic market for passenger cars priced above 600,000 is projected to have sales of 43,000, 42,000, 42,000, 48,000, and 41,000 units from 2020 to 2024, with a central estimate of 45,000 units. ZunJie is expected to capture a 15% market share in this segment, aiming for a sales volume of around 60,000 units [1].

Comparison with Maybach S680 - The S680 has a landing price of approximately 3.8 million, which is six times that of the S800 [1] - The customer base of Maybach overlaps significantly with S800, primarily used in business and administrative scenarios, making it a typical rear-seat vehicle [1] - The S680 is longer in body, mainly in the front, while the wheelbase and rear seat dimensions are close to those of the S800 [1] - The rear seat experience is similar, but the S800's zero-gravity seats have a larger adjustable range [1] - The S680 has a noticeable central floor hump in the rear, making the five-seat experience less comfortable in emergency situations [1] - There is a significant gap in smart cockpit features; Maybach's rear entertainment screen is relatively traditional with low actual usage, while the S800's co-driver screen offers a superior projection experience [1] Comparison with Rolls-Royce Ghost - The Ghost has a landing price of around 5 million [2] - Rolls-Royce does not primarily target business scenarios; the Ghost, as a representative of Rolls-Royce's four-door sedan, has a different positioning compared to S800 and Maybach, emphasizing front-seat experience and driving feel [2] - The Ghost's body length is similar to the S800, but the rear space is significantly smaller, and the seat adjustment range is also limited. The Ghost's seats are thicker and harder, not prioritizing passenger comfort [2] - The level of intelligence in the Ghost is lower than that of Maybach, featuring only a central control screen and a high number of physical buttons, which are finely crafted and tuned for a retro luxury feel [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [6] - BYD is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to tap into new markets [6] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that surpasses that of the power battery sector, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [6]

Market Overview - The market showed a "two-headed" trend during the May Day to Dragon Boat Festival period, but the customer flow (lead volume) gradually weakened after May Day, with a brief spike during the Dragon Boat Festival followed by another decline [1] - The passenger car sales off-season has returned to the pre-2020 model, with this year's off-season starting earlier in mid to late May, compared to early June in previous years [2] - The June market is expected to be weaker compared to May, with some brands potentially seeing short-term highlights due to new car launches or strong incentive policies, but the overall market is showing a clear downward trend month-on-month [3] Brand Sales Observations - BYD: Daily average orders have decreased by 10%-15% year-on-year, with retail pressure significant and main brand order volume maintaining at around 60,000 to 70,000 units [4] - Geely Galaxy: Achieved approximately 120,000 units in May, with a target of 120,000 units for June. Recent weekly orders are around 18,000 to 20,000 units due to pricing concerns [5] - Li Auto: The L6 new version launched in May, with weekly orders dropping to about 10,000 units after a spike during the Dragon Boat Festival [6] - AITO Wenjie: Recent orders mainly driven by the Greater Bay Area, with a decline in order volume when excluding orders from the Greater Bay Area and intermediaries [7] - Leap Motor: Orders remain relatively stable, with weekly orders around 8,000 to 9,000 units [8] - Zeekr: Orders are around 3,000 to 3,500 units [9] - XPeng: Total orders last week were about 11,000 units, with the MONA03 accounting for 6,000 to 7,000 units [10] - Tesla: Orders are highly volatile, with promotional measures leading to a rebound in orders [11] Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The industry needs to endure the off-season in June and July, with some brands adjusting their semi-annual targets [13] - Fuel vehicles, especially B-class sedans/SUVs, may see a surge in sales around the half-year assessment [14] - Negative factors include tightening or halting of vehicle trade-in subsidies in cities like Zhengzhou, which may lengthen consumer decision-making cycles [15] - Consumer behavior shows a clear trend of downgrading, with a significant increase in A0-class electric vehicles, while mid-to-high-end vehicle consumption remains cautious [16] New Energy Vehicle Penetration and Competition - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles fluctuates between 50%-55%, with traditional fuel vehicles still showing resilience [17] - Fuel vehicles are favored for their cost-effectiveness, long-term stability, and durability, while electric vehicles face challenges due to rapid technological iterations and concerns over second-hand value [18] - Brands like Leap Motor and Geely are primarily capturing market share from BYD, with BYD's market share dropping from nearly 40% to 25%-28% [19] Policy Impact on Vehicle Purchase Tax - The expected reduction of the vehicle purchase tax exemption from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan by 2026 will lower the taxable price threshold significantly [20] - The current average transaction price of passenger cars is around 168,000 yuan, with the new policy potentially covering about 75% of sales [20] Key New Vehicle Launches 1. XPeng G7: Positioned between G6 and G9, expected to sell 8,000 to 10,000 units monthly if priced reasonably [21][22] 2. Xiaomi YU7: High initial interest with a projected monthly sales of over 25,000 units [23][24][25][28] 3. Li Auto i8: Aiming for over 5,000 units monthly, with a competitive pricing strategy [29][30][31] 4. Li Auto MEGA Home Edition: High demand for the top configuration, with a unique market position [32] Export and Market Dynamics - BYD has shown strong export performance in regions like Europe, America, and South Asia due to its competitive pricing and parameter advantages [33] - The competition in the 300,000+ mid-to-large SUV market is primarily targeting the share of joint venture and foreign fuel vehicles [34] - The market capacity for fuel vehicles in 2024 is estimated at around 530,000 units, with new energy vehicles expected to capture an additional 100,000+ units [35]

Policy Dynamics - Major cities like Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have implemented road rights policies, with Shanghai planning to gradually release more road rights [1] - Cities have opened routes for testing from human-operated to fully autonomous, allowing for commercial charging after obtaining autonomous demonstration operation licenses [1] Key Players - **Intelligent Driving Technology Leaders**: Companies like Pony.ai and Baidu focus on intelligent driving technology and are gradually developing fleet operations. Pony.ai has high test drive performance but the highest single-vehicle cost [1] - **Automaker Background Companies**: Companies like Cao Cao T3 have automaker backgrounds, allowing them to compress single-vehicle costs to around 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, making commercial operation feasible [1] - **New Entrants**: New players like JD.com and Hello have entered the market, representing different capital interests in the sector [1] Cost Structure - The cost structure includes licensing fees, vehicle costs, personnel costs, energy costs, and other expenses [2] Commercialization Status - **Pricing Strategy**: For example, Luobo Kuaipao in Wuhan uses a high discount strategy, resulting in high order volumes with passenger prices close to or lower than T3 economy ride-hailing [2] - **Profitability Expectations**: Luobo Kuaipao aims to achieve profitability in Wuhan by the end of the year through reduced vehicle costs and improved operational efficiency. For instance, Baidu's RT6 mobile version has a single-vehicle cost of just over 200,000 yuan, with daily comprehensive costs between 150 to 200 yuan, requiring 20 orders at an average selling price of 20 yuan to break even [2] Business Models - **Automaker Model**: Automakers like SAIC, GAC, and Geely will launch customized L4 level mass-produced vehicles, reducing costs through downgrading features and selling to third parties after platform validation [2] - **Baidu Model**: This model involves technology licensing and operational revenue sharing, where Baidu sells the RT6 along with its platform and dispatch system to TSP companies, with operational management companies recruiting personnel for offline operations [2] - **Technology Company Model**: Companies like Pony.ai and WeRide select regional partners to form joint operational teams through technology equity, aiming for expansion strategies, such as WeRide's goal to establish operations in 50 cities across ten countries by 2025 [2]

9月进行中期验收、验收指标较为严苛。工信部9月对六家单位进行中期审查，电芯尺寸要求60Ah级别，从至 少300支电芯中随机选取100支进行检测，验收指标和方式较为严苛，能量密度要求350Wh/kg+，叠加其他电 芯测试数据，各家性能要求或略有区别。此外，工信部项目或有淘汰机制，不排除有新中标单位进入。产业 链进展快于项目预期，头部厂商已建立超低露点车间，单次进行公斤级投料，单次生产电芯30-50支，其余电 池厂均在全力推进。 往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ： 储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [6] - BYD is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to capture new markets [6] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing the growth in the power battery sector [6]

1、性能上，循环寿命，90%SOC内已经达到300-400次，按80%SOC测算已经可以达到商用目的，能量密度达 到350Wh/kg-350Wh/kg； 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ： 2、材料选择上，电解质选用硫化物路线，正极选用高镍体系，负极采用人造石墨+硅碳负极，少部分采用无 负极技术； 往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 3、工艺上，选用等静压设备解决固固界面问题，目前采用湿法工艺，后续可能采用干法工艺； 4、进展上，目前中试线已搭建完成， 储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the contrasting sales performance of Li Auto's Mega Home and NIO's vehicles, highlighting the reasons behind the success of Mega Home despite the initial struggles of the Mega model [1][2]. - Li Auto's Mega Home has seen over 10,000 orders and is experiencing growth, while the first generation Mega had monthly sales of less than 1,000, with many vehicles being internally consumed [1][2]. - The article suggests that the unique design and features of Mega Home, such as the rotating seats, appeal to affluent consumers, driving its sales despite the lack of industry-leading updates [1][2]. Group 2 - Li Auto has established significant brand power in many regions, countering the narrative that it has never won in online sales [2][3]. - Following the initial struggles of the Mega model, Li Auto responded with large-scale layoffs, early launches of the L6 model, supplier changes, and price reductions [2][3]. - NIO is facing a "death spiral" with negative cash flow and limited cash reserves, compounded by rapidly declining used car prices [2][3]. Group 3 - Consumer hesitation towards purchasing NIO vehicles is increasing due to concerns about the company's future operations [3][4]. - NIO's brand strength has not translated into sales, with the L6 model serving as a successful example of brand power converting to sales, while other models have not regained previous high sales levels [3][5]. - NIO's high marketing management expenses are noted as a concern, especially in the absence of corresponding sales growth [5].

1.从2025年5月第二周起，订单量开始出现止跌回升迹象。 2.新车型计划于7月初上市之前，将进行一个月左右的市场预热活动。这包括通过监测互联网声量与话题热度 等数据，为最终定价提供参考依据。 3.新车型与SU7共享部分零部件，这种通用性理论上可以通过规模效应降低成本并提升毛利率。SU7低配版当 前的BOM成本相较YU7中的BOM成本更低。 往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 加入社群 市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ：储能 ...