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小米YU7定价
数说新能源· 2025-06-26 07:35
关于YU7产品定价 众所周知YU7对标的就是特斯拉model y model y 起售价26.35万元 电池60度 YU7 起售价 ???? 电池全系列标配90度+ 按照雷总之前发布会提到的电池约占整体BOM 40% 计算。 简单估算一下,两家都按照毛利率80%计算 26.35*0.8*0.4/2=4.216 可以得出光电池一项, YU7成本就高出4.2万元,考虑电池降价等因素,按两万计算 定价28.35都是良心价格 以上是根据电池简单推导成本差异 24.59~.98万 超低价策略,会背刺 su7 pro车主 25.59~.98万 同上 26.59~.98万 打破市场行规 29.59~.98万 符合行业规矩定价 30万+ 豪华车高溢价定价 接下来考虑金融政策差异 小米官方没有推免息贷款,特斯拉提供5年免息 免息贷款其实就是营销套路,官方变相降价 按照小米2.5%的贷款利率,相当于特斯拉降价1.7万 28.35-1.7=26.65 记住这个是一个锚点价格 最可能定价的几个选项,雷总微博直接说了23.98万完全不可能 综上,我认为最大可能性是 26.98万 70%概率 雷总会在发布会拆解成本,就像我刚才说的对比特 ...
小鹏汽车逻辑
数说新能源· 2025-06-25 09:51
Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors focuses on long-term investment in intelligent technology, betting on the future of automobiles as software-defined smart terminals [1] Group 1: Profit Logic - Future profits are expected to come from software, with Xiaopeng investing heavily in intelligent driving (XNGP) to achieve high-margin software revenue similar to Apple or Tesla [2] - High brand premium potential exists as an exceptional intelligent driving experience can lead to higher vehicle prices and increased per-unit profits [3] - B2B revenue from technology licensing, such as collaboration with Volkswagen, creates a new business model that generates high-margin service fees, directly monetizing significant R&D investments [4] Group 2: Long-term Strategy - A strong technological moat is anticipated if Xiaopeng succeeds in high-level autonomous driving, potentially becoming the industry standard with unmatched bargaining power and longevity [5] - The ability to build a comprehensive smart ecosystem around intelligence, extending from vehicles to robots and flying cars, indicates limitless commercial boundaries and long-term value [6] - Xiaopeng is pursuing a challenging, capital-intensive path that, if successful, promises substantial returns, aiming for a "winner-takes-all" future [7]
周度销量 |6.16-6.22
数说新能源· 2025-06-24 03:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [6] - The article highlights BYD's expansion efforts in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to capture new markets [6] - It notes that the growth in the energy storage market is outpacing that of the power battery sector, suggesting a shift in industry focus [6]
特斯拉Robotaxi开启服务
数说新能源· 2025-06-24 03:42
Core Insights - Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, on June 22, leading to a stock price increase of over 10% on June 23 [1] Fleet Situation - The initial deployment consists of 35 vehicles, utilizing mass-produced Model Y, equipped with steering wheels and pedals, and each vehicle has a safety operator in the front passenger seat. The fully autonomous Cybercab is expected to be available by 2026 [1] Operational Scope - The Robotaxi service operates daily from 6 AM to midnight within a specific geographical area in South Austin, avoiding complex intersections to ensure safety and stability [1] Customer Base - Currently, the service is only available to a small group of invited Tesla users and fans, who can download the Robotaxi app upon receiving an invitation [2] Service Fees - The service charges a fixed fee of $4.2, which is competitive compared to Waymo's pricing of $3.5 per kilometer for distances between 4.3 to 9.3 kilometers [2] Future Plans - Tesla aims to rapidly expand the Robotaxi fleet to 1,000 vehicles within a few months, with a target of over 1 million autonomous Teslas operational in the U.S. by the end of 2026 [3] Key Innovations - The Robotaxi employs a pure vision L4 solution, upgrading from L2+ advanced driver assistance to L4 autonomous driving, significantly reducing hardware costs compared to competitors like Waymo that use redundant perception systems [3] - Tesla will also allow vehicle owners to join the Robotaxi network, enabling them to earn income from their vehicles when not in use [3]
396批重点车型梳理
数说新能源· 2025-06-23 08:46
Group 1 - The core selling points of the Ideal i6 include a length of 4950mm and a wheelbase of 3000mm, which is larger than the current range-extended L6, focusing on pure electric with more space [1] - The Ideal i6 will have a single motor rear-wheel drive version, moving away from the previous all-double-motor strategy, with an expected starting price below 250,000 yuan [1] - The new model is expected to launch in September, with optimistic monthly sales projections of up to 15,000 units, and currently, there are no clear competitors in the market [1] Group 2 - The Geely Galaxy M9 is positioned as the flagship large six-seat SUV within the Galaxy series, with dimensions of 5205mm in length, 1999mm in width, and 1800mm in height, and a wheelbase of 3110mm [2] - The M9 features a high space utilization rate of 88% and includes a GEA-Evo architecture with a maximum of three motors achieving 0-100 km/h in 4.5 seconds, powered by CATL lithium iron phosphate batteries [2] - The expected launch is in Q3, with a base price projected to be below 200,000 yuan, and it has significant potential to achieve monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [2] Group 3 - The Fangcheng Leopard Titanium 7 has dimensions of 4999mm in length, 1995mm in width, and 1865mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2920mm, and is designed as a large five-seat configuration [3] - It adopts a plug-in hybrid powertrain with three versions available, enhancing its suitability for urban light off-road scenarios, with an expected starting price between 250,000 to 300,000 yuan [3] - The new model is set to officially launch in Q3 [3] Group 4 - The NIO third-generation ES8 has dimensions of 5280mm in length, 2010mm in width, and 1800mm in height, with a wheelbase of 3130mm, marking its evolution into a large six-seat SUV [4] - The new ES8 will feature the NT3.0 system with a full suite of three-electric technology and design language, expected to be unveiled in Q3 and launched in Q4, with pricing anticipated to remain consistent with the current ES8 [4] - The Leidao L90 will also be introduced with both five and seven-seat configurations, with a price expected to exceed 300,000 yuan, while the L80 is set for a Q4 launch [4] Group 5 - Other models mentioned include the Wuling Bingo S EV, Wuling Starlight 730 MPV, and the new generation Audi Q5L [4]
理想i8六大用户价值点
数说新能源· 2025-06-23 08:46
1. 30-40万区间同时提供长续航+大空间+6座,以及不妥协动力、抓地力(标配400kW四驱+四轮265轮 胎)。 i8内部空间与续航将同时超Model X/问界M9纯电/蔚来ES8,其中后两者外部尺寸大于i8。i8 最大续航Cltc 720km,后三者最大续航700/630/605。后三者含税落地价均会超50万。 比亚迪出海:发力东南亚 2.较Model X,取消前备箱获得更大内部空间,B柱后溜背下降率缓很多,获得比Model X大得多的三排垂向 空间。 3.L9/MEGA/i8外形都是基于增程SUV/5.35m低分阻MPV/低风阻纯电SUV 产品用户价值正向设计的,前三者 外观都曾饱受争议,前二者已获得用户与市场认可,i8即将获得。 往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购:兼顾性能和成本 A柱延伸线和一排窗户的视觉重心才是区分SUV和MPV的关键,作者看过N次实车,目前出街素材 大都是广角拍的,会造成很大畸变。实车视觉比例,关键特征与分割点都是SUV。 4.i8有大型6座SUV中超低的质心,对于舒适、操控都有很大加成。 5.非常好的前排驾驶视野,带来很好的架势体验。 CATL : 储能市场增长高于动力 加入社群 本公 ...
亿纬锂能近期交流
数说新能源· 2025-06-20 03:35
Core Viewpoints - EVE Energy is advancing its battery technology across various applications, including electric vehicles, medical devices, and energy storage, with a focus on enhancing performance, safety, and sustainability. Group 1: Battery Technology Advancements - EVE's LMX battery technology is set to accelerate the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, offering significant advantages in range (≥ 500 km), low-temperature performance (operational at ≤ -20 ℃), and safety [1] - The company has accumulated over 20 years of experience in cylindrical battery technology, with 2,702 patents and a projected shipment of 1.2 billion units of its flagship 18650 battery in 2024 [1] - EVE's cylindrical batteries boast three core competitive advantages: standardization, zero expansion, and high strength, with strength improved by 560% compared to traditional aluminum shell square batteries [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - EVE's cylindrical batteries achieve a 6C fast charge capability, with power output increased to 100C, and can operate in a temperature range of -35 to 80 ℃, with a cycle life of 6,000 to 8,000 times [1] - The company is targeting a 300 GWh production capacity, with expectations for market share to continue increasing [2] - EVE's LMX2.0 cell has achieved an energy density of 215 Wh/kg, a 5% improvement over the first generation and a 13% improvement over LFP batteries [3] Group 3: Medical Device Applications - EVE's lithium batteries for medical devices have a lifespan of 5 years, reducing treatment costs by 50% for imported devices, and a new generation of batteries with titanium metal packaging can last up to 20 years [2] - The company's AED device batteries can achieve millisecond-level high energy discharge, with a standby life of over 10 years and a self-discharge rate of less than 1% at room temperature [2] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Development - EVE aims to launch its first generation of solid-state batteries in 2026, achieving 350 Wh/kg energy density and over 1,000 cycles, with a second generation targeting 1,000 Wh/L by 2028 [4] - The company is optimistic about solid-state battery technology, focusing on safety and performance improvements through innovative material designs [4] Group 5: Battery Recycling Initiatives - By 2030, an estimated 400 GWh of power batteries will be retired, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% from 2026 to 2030, allowing for the extraction of significant amounts of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate [5] - EVE is developing a battery recycling platform with a recovery rate of over 96% and plans to integrate online and offline recycling methods [5] Group 6: Future Outlook - EVE anticipates significant developments in 2026, including the mass production of large square batteries exceeding 60 GWh and the delivery of over 10 GWh of large cylindrical batteries [6] - The company is also exploring opportunities for overseas projects and cautious about the potential for a Hong Kong listing to support funding needs [2]
理想近期销量解读
数说新能源· 2025-06-19 02:35
Core Viewpoint - The recent sales figures for Li Auto are lower than expected, with a reported 7,874 units sold last week, which is below the monthly delivery guidance of 48,205 units provided by the company [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Low Sales - The implementation of stricter commission policies at the end of May and early June has led to a significant short-term impact on sales, although this could be beneficial in the long term if effectively enforced [2]. - Recent changes in sales operations have not been fully streamlined, leading to unclear divisions of responsibilities among sales, product, and brand teams, indicating a lack of top-level design [3]. - The cancellation of high-interest and high-commission incentives has also contributed to the decline in sales [4]. - A portion of potential customers is currently waiting to see the performance of the Yu7 and i8 models, with a notable percentage of L6 potential users specifically observing the Yu7, although exact numbers are difficult to quantify [5].
零跑汽车逻辑
数说新能源· 2025-06-19 02:35
Core Viewpoint - The core business model of Leap Motor focuses on "extreme cost control + global B2B2C," aiming to become a profitable "super OEM" and "technology supplier" before building a strong brand [1]. Group 1: Profitability Logic - Visible profits (hardware profits): Leap Motor's "full self-research" strategy targets cost reduction from the start, achieving a remarkable gross margin of 14.9% by Q1 2025, surpassing competitors like Xiaopeng [2]. - Anticipated scale effects: The extreme "price-performance ratio" allows Leap Motor to dominate the market, leading to a positive cycle of increased sales, reduced costs, and better pricing [2]. - Guaranteed overseas model: The joint venture "Leap International" with Stellantis provides a low-risk, quick-return revenue source through B2B sales and profit sharing, leveraging existing channels [2]. Group 2: Longevity Logic - Strong cost moat: In the competitive EV market, cost advantages serve as the ultimate moat, allowing Leap Motor to maintain a competitive edge in price wars and ensuring longer survival [3]. Group 3: Strategic Certainty - Clear strategic path: Leap Motor's strategy involves capturing market share domestically through high cost-performance and leveraging Stellantis for global product and technology distribution, significantly reducing systemic operational risks [4].
5月汽车销量榜 | 自主车企发力,油电对决的终极pk
数说新能源· 2025-06-18 09:20
2025年5月仅有19个工作日,与去年5月相比少2天,尤其是端午节在5月31日,不利于月度车市产销平稳增长。 由于外部贸易环境改善,因此5月的市场走势较强。 一、整体情况 根据终端销量数据,2025年5月中国乘用车终端销量184.5万辆,同比增长10.9%,环比上涨10%;2025年5月新 能源乘用车总销量97.2万辆,同比增长23%,环比增长11%。具体能源类型来看:纯电车型销量58.4万辆,同比 增长19%,环比增长5%;插混车型销量27.3万辆,同比增长21%,环比增长16%;增程车型销量11.5万辆,同比 增长49%,环比增长30%。 二、品牌榜: 受"两新"政策的拉动,春节后车市热度持续走强。在国家促消费政策推动下,很多省市出台并逐步落实了相应的 地方促消费政策,叠加车展等线下活动的全面启动,5月车市走势良好。今年直观的降价价格战稍显温和,但年 款增配、调整车主权益等隐形优惠措施层出不穷,5月新能源促销环比增长达到11% 展望六月,随着2024年报废更新政策启动,2024年5-6月乘用车市场逐步恢复,今年6月的增长基数会相对较 高。叠加银行存贷息差下降,高息高返的车贷政策受到控制,原有的银行高返给经 ...