过去几年，辜朝明是国内金融圈绕不过去的一个名字。在股市、楼市的各种鬼故事里， " 日本式的资产 负债表衰退 " 一度是最为撩拨的话题。 但天弘基金的姜晓丽并不跟从这种叙事的引力，她养成了一个新的习惯 —— 每天研读《人民日报》。 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 在探索绝对收益方法论的最开始的起点上，天弘与几乎所有公募绝对收益团队一样，瞄准债券市场，做 好固收投资。可实际上，一旦遇到债券熊市，就算满仓配置货币，还是没有办法抵抗下跌。 通过报刊史料，在微观文本和宏观结构之间建立桥梁，是不少研究中国近现代史的历史学者所常见的方 法。但在投资领域，这条理解宏观的分析路径在大部分时间里称不上主流。 作为债券出身的基金经理，姜晓丽在此前大部分从业时间里也并不是一个会把投资胜率建立在政策分析 上的人。但身处 2022 年的波动中，她明确地感受到，现实世界里一些底层的框架和规律正在发生深刻 的变化： 政策对经济和市场的影响力正在日益增强，政府对特定产业的重视往往决定了市场的方向。 在这种脉络下，权威媒体的印刷物成为了她不能忽视的参考资料，政府对经济运行、产业方向的调整意 图，显露 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is undergoing a significant transition from being primarily an automotive manufacturer to focusing on artificial intelligence and software capabilities, but this shift is accompanied by challenges and a decline in traditional automotive sales [5][17][30]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla reported its worst quarterly results, with net profit plummeting by 71% and automotive revenue dropping by 20% year-over-year, leading to a state of substantial losses [3][5]. - The company's market value has seen a dramatic decrease, with $500 billion evaporating during a quarter of declining vehicle deliveries [3][17]. Group 2: Transition Challenges - The transition period for Tesla is marked by a stabilization in automotive business growth while preparing for AI-related ventures, which is causing significant "growing pains" [5][14]. - Despite ambitious plans for AI and autonomous driving, Tesla's actual business progress has lagged behind its high valuation, leading to a disconnect between market expectations and reality [14][17]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - The Cybertruck, despite high pre-order numbers exceeding 2 million, has faced production delays and disappointing sales, with only 6,406 units sold in the first quarter of 2023 [21][24]. - The anticipated Model 2/Q, a budget vehicle aimed at a price point of $25,000, has not yet materialized, raising concerns about Tesla's ability to maintain sales momentum as existing models show signs of fatigue [23][24]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - Tesla's reliance on the Chinese market is increasing, with China being the only market showing positive growth for Tesla in 2024, although its market share has significantly declined from 15.8% in Q1 2021 to 5.6% in the same period this year [24][30]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly with the emergence of numerous affordable electric vehicle models from Chinese manufacturers, which poses a threat to Tesla's market position [24][30].

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of China's home appliance industry is shifting from a focus on speed and scale to a deeper transformation centered on industry chain reconstruction, value narrative upgrades, and future demand exploration. The new formula for sustainable value growth emphasizes insight into human nature and technological leadership [1]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The home appliance industry is moving away from the old script of cheap products for market access to a new era defined by high-end innovation and technology barriers [1]. - The transition from "technical OEM" to "standard-setting" represents a significant power shift in the industry, with companies like Fotile leading the way in establishing international standards [3][4]. - Fotile's journey from being a follower to a standard setter in the kitchen appliance sector illustrates the importance of innovation and the need for Chinese voices in global standards [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The home appliance market has shifted from a growth phase to a competition for existing market share, with two main battlegrounds: replacement wars based on experience upgrades and demand creation through scenario innovation [6]. - The evolution of high-end brands from merely meeting basic needs to creating immersive experiences reflects a significant shift in consumer expectations and market strategies [8]. Group 3: Fotile's Innovations - Fotile's new generation of high-end integrated refrigerators exemplifies the brand's commitment to creating a "true freshness" experience, utilizing advanced nitrogen preservation technology [10]. - The integration of AI technology into Fotile's kitchen ecosystem aims to enhance user experience through smart cooking and health management solutions [10]. - Fotile's approach to innovation is characterized by a deep understanding of local consumer needs, leading to significant market share in high-end segments [10]. Group 4: Chinese-style Innovation - The concept of "Chinese-style innovation" emphasizes continuous evolution and optimization based on real user needs, contrasting with Western innovation that often seeks groundbreaking discoveries [15]. - Fotile's development of integrated cooking centers addresses common pain points in Chinese kitchens, showcasing a practical response to consumer demands [13]. - This approach highlights the importance of understanding and solving everyday problems, leading to rapid iterations and effective applications in the market [15]. Conclusion - The transformation of the home appliance industry in China is marked by a shift from cost-driven success to innovation and experience-driven value creation, with Fotile serving as a prime example of this evolution [17][18].

当投资世界的注意力几乎被关税所垄断的时候，中国公募基金行业还需要面对更多内生的问题。 在吴清主席履职证监会的一年零三个月之后，讨论多时的《公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 （下称《方 案》） 终于出台。行业内许多从业者对《方案》有一个直击本质的简称： 公募改革 。 相比于2022年4月证监会发布的《关于加快推进公募基金行业高质量发展的意见》 （下称《意见》） 里的十六条表述，如今正式推出的《方案》，总计发布了25条举措。华创证券在一篇研报中总结为，" 中国公募基金行业成立近三十年来最深入的一次'体检'及最大范围的一次配套改革 [2]。" 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 从时间点来看，改革并非没有压力。 外部——许多基金投资者，尤其是主动权益基金的持有人，在过去四年承受着不尽如人意的投资体验， 排山倒海的信任危机压在公募行业声誉之上；内部——积重难返的经营治理、人才建设、规模导向等问 题，在行业下行期里愈发外显。 才走了二十多年发展历程的中国公募基金，过去所面临的核心矛盾是行业体量太小。很大程度上，规模 为王的排名方式和评价体系，是一种高效的解决方式，也最终带来了今天中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is undergoing significant changes, with companies like NetEase facing challenges in mobile game development and shifting focus back to PC and console games, indicating a potential market realignment. Group 1: Game Development Challenges - NetEase has shut down 12 mobile games in a year, including the short-lived "Tianqi Action," which lasted only 45 days, reflecting a negative birth rate of new games [1][3] - The company is experiencing a decline in user retention and game engagement, with "Egg Party" seeing a 40% year-on-year drop in user retention by July [5][6] - The rising costs of game development and user acquisition are making it increasingly difficult for new projects to break even, with the cost to acquire a single paying user reaching 500 yuan [6][7] Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Management Changes - The return of founder Ding Lei and the dismissal of several high-level executives signal a strategic overhaul within NetEase, reminiscent of past significant changes in the company's direction [3][4] - Ding Lei has emphasized a more rigorous approach to game projects, stating that all projects will be evaluated equally, with some being scaled up and others halted [3][4] Group 3: Performance of PC Games - Despite challenges in the mobile sector, NetEase's PC games have shown promising performance, with titles like "Yan Yun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Showdown" achieving significant user engagement and revenue projections [12][13] - The PC gaming market is experiencing growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.88% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing the mobile gaming sector [12][20] Group 4: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The gaming market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Tencent and ByteDance adapting their strategies, including reducing reliance on user acquisition spending [10][20] - The trend of cross-platform games is rising, with the number of cross-platform titles increasing eightfold since 2021, indicating a shift in how games are developed and marketed [20][25]

以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者徐珊珊/李墨天 远川科技评论 . 2024年，国内降价车型多达227款，是2023年1.5倍，2022年的2.3倍。 新能源爱好者买到了便宜的新能源汽车，旧能源拥护者买到了便宜的旧能源汽车；车企一边声嘶力竭地呼吁"从卷价格到卷价值"，一边给供应商发邮件要求降价。 在"内卷"的语境下，"价格战"从一个商业现象变成了一个时代情绪的宣泄通道。但至少在汽车行业，惨烈的价格战在当下愈演愈烈，更多是产业发展的必然结果。 内卷是一个社会问题，价格战是一个市场行为。汽车价格战的开始和结束，很难用"内卷"两个字完全概括。 和平戛然而止 制造业几乎所有价格战的出现，都源于 市场集中度 的变化。 大部分市场从群雄争霸走向寡头林立的过程中，价格战都无法避免。而当大鱼吃小鱼的游戏变成几条大白鲨大眼瞪小眼，价格战就会偃旗息鼓。 内存芯片曾是价格战的重灾区，由于内存芯片高度标准化，竞争力完全锚定于成本，价格战往往极度惨烈，开销不亚于一场军事行动。 上一次大规模内存价格战发生在2008年金融危机期间，三星依靠越亏越投的"反周期扩张"四处乱砍，日本尔必达和德国奇梦达相继退场。最终，全球内存生产商只 剩下了三星 ...

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张伟栋 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 2022年11月，OpenAI 发布了全新对话式AI大模型ChatGPT，密切关注海外科技行业动态的王鑫晨知道AI的 时代来了，而此时距离ChatGPT用户破亿、并引爆人工智能投资热情还有一个多月时间。 作为一项革命性技术，人工智能的发展并非一帆风顺。在ChatGPT之前至少已经历三轮浪潮，而早在2012年 AlexNet在图像识别竞赛夺冠标志技术质变，到2016年基于深度学习的AlphaGO战胜李世石引燃公众的兴 趣，AI便开始从实验室走向了更广阔的天地。 也正是从十年前开始，嘉实基金投研团队就意识到AI时代的步步逼近。他们建立了AI产业链专题研究的大 课题，等待着产业奇点时刻的出现。 这种漫长而连贯的努力，在人类科学技术的进步中，和科技的投资里 总是必要，因为足够高的学习成本投入，才能在机会出现的一瞬间有果断出手的底气。 从2016年到2022年，耗时六年的AI产业跟踪似乎始终没有带来大规模的投资机会，嘉实科技研究产业"六 化"趋势里，继互联网化、电子化、信息化、云化、5G化，"全面AI化"已然在列。OpenAI在11月末发布的 ...

2012年，天津北宁公园东门附近的绿化带里，种植了一批新的景观植物。这种观赏植物因为形似"大白 菜"，才种上3-4天，就被人挖走了近百棵。 眼瞅着绿化带就要被薅秃了，当地园林部门，赶紧找到本地都市报的记者，面向市民们做起了科普： 所谓的"大白菜"，其实是一种观赏花，"它有个十分好听的名字，叫作 羽衣甘蓝 "。 虽然长得像"大白菜"，但"目前的花卉研究资料中，并没有这种花的食用记录"。因此，园林部门提醒广 大市民—— "不要擅自采摘，更不要用于做菜，以免出现不良反应，造成不必要的损失" [1]。 园林工人在绿化带里清理羽衣甘蓝，威海，2023年 但谁能想到，到了2025年，羽衣甘蓝不仅成功从绿化带翻身跃上了餐桌，还活成了领先普通蔬菜几个 版本的 —— 超级食物 。 在社交媒体的相关讨论中，羽衣甘蓝不是一种食物，而是一种对标"保健品"的存在。相比吃起来，味道 咋样？大家讨论的重点往往是——吃了，人会咋样？ 围绕着"超级食物"富含营养这一个核心，在社交媒体上，羽衣甘蓝被赋予了太多神奇功效——抗氧化、 抗炎、促进消化、去火、补钙，甚至是——抗癌。 可以说，能引起现代人"健康焦虑"的常见痛点，羽衣甘蓝几乎都轻松拿捏 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Laopu Gold into a luxury brand, highlighting its unique pricing strategy and market positioning, which has led to significant growth in revenue and valuation despite the challenges faced by the luxury goods market. Group 1: Company Overview - Laopu Gold sought to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2020 but faced scrutiny over its high gross margin of nearly 40%, which led to its decision to pursue a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange instead [3]. - In November 2023, Laopu Gold's founder initiated a Pre-IPO round, with the company's revenue from its Beijing SKP store surpassing 100 million yuan, achieving a store efficiency comparable to luxury brands [4]. - After its listing, Laopu Gold's market capitalization increased tenfold, challenging the traditional valuation perceptions in the Hong Kong market [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Positioning - The jewelry industry, particularly gold, is characterized by low profit margins, with major players like Lao Fengxiang and China Gold consistently reporting gross margins below 10% [6]. - Laopu Gold has managed to maintain a gross margin above 40% and a net margin that reached 17% last year, significantly outperforming its competitors [8]. - The company has adopted a luxury brand strategy, including high-end store locations and a unique customer loyalty program, which has contributed to its elevated market perception [11]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - Laopu Gold has successfully implemented a pricing strategy that allows it to maintain high prices for its products, with average prices nearly doubling from 2017 to 2022 [16]. - The company has increased its prices multiple times in recent years, aligning its pricing strategy with the rising gold prices, which has contributed to its revenue growth [19]. - Despite the luxury market's downturn, Laopu Gold has expanded its store presence, indicating a strong market positioning and willingness to capitalize on opportunities during challenging times [22][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The founder of Laopu Gold has expressed ambitions for the company to achieve an average store efficiency exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [25]. - The luxury market's dynamics suggest that Laopu Gold's expansion may continue to thrive even as traditional luxury brands face challenges, as high-end malls may lower their selection criteria during downturns [23]. - The company's luxury positioning will need to withstand fluctuations in gold prices to validate its market strategy fully [32].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者沈晖 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 5月4日，现已94岁高龄的巴菲特宣布年末交棒，迎来经久不息的掌声。地球的另一边，正值壮年的"中 国巴菲特"但斌却稍显落寞。 在举行这届股东会的前一个交易日，伯克希尔市值创下历史新高。在会上，巴菲特对库克不吝赞美，表 示"库克为伯克希尔赚的钱，比我为伯克希尔哈撒韦赚的还多"。但实际上，2024年底以来，伯克希尔对 苹果的大幅减持，使得一季度账上现金和短期国债总额突破3477亿美元，同样也创下历史新高。 与之对比，但斌去年一举夺下国内百亿私募业绩第一，今年以来东方港湾代表产品马拉松17号亏了 22.50%，亏损的直接原因是采取了与巴菲特相反的操作——加仓美股科技股。 中美巴菲特对美股科技股不同的看法，映射在投资业绩上造成了两种截然不同的结果。但这并不是但斌 第一次经历这样的落寞时刻，作为近20年长期活跃在一线的私募代表，但斌一直是独特的存在： 但斌工作很勤奋 。 自2009年9月9日发布第一条微博到今年被禁言，但斌一共写了290533条微博，平 均每天53条，发的微博里很大一部分是转发别人的赞美，然后回复一个"玫瑰"的表情。 但斌风评很分 ...