A股复盘 | 端午红包 / 2025.05.29 哈哈哈，抖个机灵，今天一觉醒来，一个重磅消息砸来！ 美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并 裁定特朗普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。 我是特朗普，我的伟大关税计划遭遇贸易法院阻拦。消息传来，整个华盛顿像被 扔进了一颗重磅炸弹，媒体和反对派们纷纷跳出来，好像抓住了什么把柄。但我 知道，这只是暂时的挫折，我的计划是为美国的经济和产业谋利益，我的梦想 是"Make America Great Again"，我绝不会轻易放弃。 如果判决落地，除了4月2日宣布的对等关税外，此前就芬太尼问题，通过IEEPA 对中国、加拿大、墨西哥加征的关税也要取消。 我站在白宫的办公室里，看着那些反对的声音，心里只有一个念头：继续战斗！ 我拿起手机，开始给我的支持者们发消息。支持者们迅速响应，社交媒体上一片 支持的声音！ 而你，只需要V我50，我就会邀请你加入我的关税计划，一起见证美国的伟大复 兴！ 判决有何影响？特朗普政府又如何应对？ 高盛倒是挺乐观，首席政治经济学家亚历克·菲利普斯（Alec Phillips）认为这是 虚惊一场， ...

A股复盘 | 端午劫 / 2025.05.28 今天上午农药直接要把我送走！学了一晚上的氯虫苯甲酰胺，群里各种小表格， 卖方各种吹，怎么今天全跌了？ 跳水，从来不需要一小时，开盘半个小时就够了！ 还好下午喝了点黄酒、啤酒、鸡尾酒、乳酸菌、东鹏特饮，总之不是白酒的各种 新式饮料，才稍微回回血。 谁能想到，前几天"蠢蠢欲动"的无人物流车是今天最靓的崽！！中邮科技5月悄 摸得涨了128%了！ 卖方又看到千亿规模了！ 长江证券指出，2025年头部无人物流车公司总交付量 规模或达万辆级别，渗透率不足可替代市场的1%，经测算若无人车在末端配送 市场渗透率达17%以上，对应的市场规模有望超过千亿元。 下午临近收盘，黄金忽然又涨起来了，你以为是金价涨了！nonono~~~是黄金企 业开始与二次元 IP 联名推出系列黄金饰品，借用二次元"痛文化"的概念打造"痛 金"。 | | 图表5: A 股行业上 险负投资规模 | | | (仪统计削十大持有人,早征:亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 所属行业 | 20211231 | 20220630 | 202 ...

A股复盘 | 蜜雪泡金 / 2025.05.27 我发现新消费上涨的信号了，看准泡泡玛特就行，只要龙头一涨，A股新消费概 念绝对跟！！ 这次新消费概念又扩大了，黄酒、健康饮料、果汁、珠宝申请加入成功！ | 图片来源：网络 | 今天汽车又继续跌了，网上都吵翻天了！汽车界的"恒大"到底是比亚迪还是蔚来 | | --- | --- | | 啊？ | | 上周末，一段长城汽车董事长魏建军犀利发言刷屏， 最著名的那句还是"现在汽 车产业里边的'恒大'已经存在，只不过没爆而已"。 一时间大家都在猜测，到底是哪家公司？ 比亚迪恰逢降价大甩卖，而且老早就爆出压榨供应商等行径，大部分人觉得是比 亚迪，哈哈哈 还有人说是蔚来，自从去年开始，蔚来"现金流不行了"、"还在亏损"、"强制内 部员工买车"等负面舆论都不断。 此外魏建军还爆出汽车行业出现了销售"0公里二手车"的怪象。 看了一个公众号说，恒大化的一个典型特点是:"行业还在努力扩张，但利润已经 明显颓势了"。现在到处都是恒大，或者行业性的变成恒大。 魏建军还说，在市场竞争中，许多企业不遵守商业规则，"比如无限度逼使供应 商降价，以及拖欠供应商货款回款将近一年的时间，使供应商的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing extremely low volatility and shrinking trading volume, indicating a lack of market direction and potential upcoming volatility expansion [1][6]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.80% on the day, with total market turnover at 10,340 billion, a decrease of 1,487 billion from the previous day [7]. - Nearly 3,800 stocks rose, with 86 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and the maximum consecutive limit up was four [7]. Sector Highlights - The nuclear fusion concept stocks surged, with companies like Hahwa Huatong and Xue Ren Shares hitting the daily limit up [8]. - The autonomous driving sector also showed strength, with stocks like Jinjiang Online and Tongda Electric reaching their daily limit up [8]. - The IP economy rebounded, with stocks such as Jinghua Laser and Yuanzhu Network hitting the daily limit up [8]. Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a 3% appreciation of the RMB over the next year, which could drive a 9% increase in the stock market [10]. - Historical data suggests that when the RMB appreciates against the USD, Chinese stocks tend to perform well, particularly in non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and diversified financial sectors [12]. Industry Insights - The uranium market is expected to see long-term price increases due to supply constraints, with China National Nuclear Corporation reporting a significant increase in uranium sales and revenue [6][15]. - In the chemical sector, leading companies are expected to benefit from policy support and demand recovery, particularly in fluorine chemicals and vitamins [16]. - The 3D printing industry is advancing with new technologies that enhance the precision of human tissue modeling, indicating growth potential in this sector [17]. Capital Flow - Net inflow of main funds was 11.713 billion, with the electronics sector seeing the largest inflow [18]. - The automotive sector experienced significant net outflows, particularly from companies like BYD and Kweichow Moutai [18][19]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The media, computer, and environmental sectors are leading in valuation, while the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors are lagging [27]. - The trading heat in sectors like construction decoration and coal is increasing, while sectors like agriculture and non-bank financials are at historical low valuation percentiles [27].

摘要 / 新一轮不确定性来临 周五又偷懒了，哈哈哈，见谅见谅 当天最刺激的是午后指数莫名的下跌，事后大家也都在找原因，比如G7对中国低 价产品征税啊，美伊谈判啊，我觉得这些都比较牵强，前者周三就出了。 要不就是有人提前知道晚上特朗普又要作妖了！哈哈哈！不过我觉得可能性不 大，发推其实就是一个随性的事情，很难去提前预测。 从趋势来看，这段时间ETF一直是净赎回的状态， 近四个周每周都是上百亿的赎 回规模， 上周 股票型ETF场内净赎回324亿元，可能主要指数收复"解放日"以来 的失地后还是缺乏方向，先卖为敬。 另外我看到还有分析说， 指数期货与现货贴水较大， 可能有一些现货的多头资金 在做套保，但也不能排除一些空头在套利。 下周估计还是震荡的走势，四月经济数据显示经济复苏步伐有所放缓，特别是物 价指数依然低迷，显示经济内生动能有待提升；尽管中美关税谈判取得实质性进 展，但同时也意味着短期内政策逆周期对冲的力度可能减缓。因此当前进入政策 观察期，预计未来一段时间依然维持宽幅震荡、结构性行情为主的格局。 哈哈哈，五穷六绝七翻身！！ 核能/核聚变 特朗普周五签署行政令，要求能源部促进10座大型反应堆在2030年前开工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, highlighting the contrasting performance of bank stocks amidst a broader market decline, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On May 22, A-shares experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96%. The North Star 50 index fell significantly by 6.15% [5]. - The total market turnover was 11,398 billion yuan, a decrease of 747 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks in the market showing losses [5]. Sector Analysis - Bank stocks showed resilience, with Qingdao Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains [5]. - The article notes a significant drop in previously hot sectors such as pet economy and solid-state batteries, while innovative drug concepts remained active, with Sanofi's stock hitting a four-day limit up [5]. - The AI sector saw activity with Kunlun Wanwei's stock also hitting the limit up after the launch of its Skywork Super Agents product [5]. External Influences - The article mentions that the A-share market's decline was influenced by external factors, including significant risks in Japanese and U.S. bonds, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 5.09% and the 10-year yield to 4.60% [2]. - Bitcoin has emerged as a preferred asset for global investors amid uncertainty, reaching a new high of over $110,000, reflecting a 60% increase since Trump's election [3]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that foreign investors are increasingly reluctant to purchase U.S. assets, indicating rising fiscal risks in the U.S. economy [3]. - The article also notes that the Chinese central bank is taking measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a planned 500 billion yuan MLF operation [6]. Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds reached 470.82 billion yuan, with the basic chemical industry experiencing the largest outflow [8]. - The banking, defense, media, light manufacturing, and comprehensive sectors saw net inflows, while basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, computing, and electronics faced net outflows [8].

A股复盘 | 中毅客车 / 2025.05.21 夏天来了，A股拿出了自己绝技——电风扇。一天一个热点，眼花缭乱，学得挺 好但赚钱效应不太行。 请看别的up的完美总结！ 这几天写早报，估计要被骂死，哈哈哈，一个也押不上，真是太难了，轮动得太 快了！ 感觉AI筹码短时间内难以出清，这几天从英伟达到苹果，从OpenAI到谷歌，要么 释放消息，要么发布新品，但都毫无反应。机器人也是，对一些什么格斗大赛啊 都免疫了。 AI起不来，当前经济也不太支持顺周期，成交又一直缩量，资金又找不到方向 了，三天打鱼两天晒网。一些比较猛的短线就抱团，上周是成飞集成，这周会是 丽人丽妆还是郑中设计？ 今天中毅达无疑成为话题！上一次盘中发风险提示是22年的中通客车，当天就见 顶。 哈哈哈，有没有秀一秀今天操作的？ 近期外资投行纷纷上调中国GDP增长预测。 摩根士丹利预计2025年和2026年GDP同比增长分别为4.5%和4.2%，高于此前 预测的4.2%和4.0%。 此外，摩根士丹利将其对恒生指数的"基准情景"预测上调至2026年中达到 24,500点， 相当于2026年6月预测市盈率为10.6倍，并预计2026年公司盈利将 在自上而下 ...

A股复盘 |人的成见是A股 / 2025.05.20 看看，是不是每天都要认真看我的复盘， 昨天刚发了新消费概念的专题， 今天 大爆发了吧！而且今天微盘股又双叒叕新高了， 周报的含金量还在上升！！ 今天520，不管是谁忘了你，大A都会在520当天给你发红包！ PS：封面图别急，后面有详细的研报！！ 话题一转，哈哈哈，今天来说一个大摩的预测——鉴于经济的韧性和关税战的暂 停， 中国 额外的财政的扩充会比预想的来得更迟，并且规模可能也更小。 大摩分析师在每周策略会上指出，关税对于中国毫无疑问是一个比较显著的需求 冲击，它会降低产出和价格。当然硬的数据会有一定的滞后性。以五一出行来 看，它很多的长途出行，都是在关税在升级之前就已经定下的。而在投资端，一 些很大的项目它一旦开启了也不会立刻的叫停。再包括一些抢出口、抢转口，再 包括一些政策宽松的滞后的效应，都使得一些硬数据的下滑至少在初期可能是比 较平缓的。 因此短期经济数据可能还比较有韧性，再叠加关税谈判的不确定性可能会维持到 7月底，甚至更长更久。 这些都意味着之前两会定下的政策空间，额外的财政的 扩充会比我们之前预想的来得更迟，并且规模可能也更小。 我们之前是预 ...

A股复盘 |周末吹爆的题材好像不错呢 / 2025.05.19 今天这周末吹爆的题材倒是还可以！不过整体行情有点子无聊，早上买入后就没 管了！ 行情无聊到群里都鸦雀无声，只有早安、午安、晚安。 今天4月经济数据出来了，工业增加值和社零还是可以的，但房地产全面转弱， 销售遇冷， 投资降幅扩大， 价格下跌，连一线城市都涨不动了。这也印证了4月 金融数据信贷需求的疲软。 具体来看： 4月工业增加值同比增长6.1% 较前值下滑1.6个百分点 4月社零同比增长5.1% 较前值下滑0.8个百分点 前四月固定资产投资同比增长4.0% 较前值下滑0.2个百分点 前四月房地产开发投资同比降幅扩大至10.3%，前值9.9% 之前高盛就在调研中指出， 关税和出口下降可能导致未来几个月房地产市场再次 面临下行压力。 在出口活动更集中的地区（如长江三角洲和珠江三角洲），出口 导向型中小企业主可能会遇到现金流困难，被迫出售房产。 广发证券总结4月经济数据亮点： 一是在外生冲击下，实际增长虽有放缓但仍韧 性较强，一些新兴产业领域产品扩张较快；二是产销率没有显性变化，供求关系 没有因为外生冲击大幅承压；三是消费修复速度略超预期，不含汽车的4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the significant rebound in small-cap stocks and the impact of new regulations on major asset restructuring, which is expected to invigorate market activity. Group 1: Market Performance - Following the first round of US-China negotiations, global risk assets rebounded significantly, while gold prices fell sharply. The A-share market remained relatively stable, fluctuating around the 3400-point mark [1] - Since April 8, small-cap stocks and the North Securities 50 index have rebounded by 22% and 36%, respectively, while larger indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 saw smaller rebounds of only 10% and 8% [1] - The trading volume of small-cap indices has been steadily increasing, indicating a shift of risk capital towards these stocks as larger stocks face concerns over declining trading volumes [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced new major asset restructuring regulations, including simplified review processes and the ability to pay for acquisitions in installments, significantly reducing the pressure on companies [5] - The new regulations are expected to lead to an 11.6-fold increase in major asset restructuring transaction volumes this year, with the number of restructurings on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board surpassing the total for the previous year [5] - The introduction of private equity "reverse linkage" arrangements is anticipated to release over 5 billion in liquidity, further stimulating market activity [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a "barbell strategy" for the upcoming week, suggesting a faster rotation in investment strategies [6] - The financial re-inflation phase of the current bull market is expected to support the growth potential of small-cap stocks, while stable cash flow and dividend capabilities of dividend assets remain advantageous [3] Group 4: Sector Insights - The military sector gained attention with the successful combat performance of China's J-10CE fighter jets, which has implications for defense-related investments [14] - The unveiling of the "Jiutian" drone at the 15th China Airshow, which features advanced capabilities, is expected to attract interest in the aerospace and defense sectors [15] - The technology sector is seeing significant developments, including Nvidia's strategic reassessment of its market approach in China due to export restrictions [16]