A股复盘 | 砸盘有力度 收割有温度 / 2025.12.23 标题是看了漫漫游资路的复盘文章起的！ 今天又是一个牵动千万股民心情的发射！过程 be like： 结果就是长征十二号甲一子级未能成功回收，为什么大家都关注能否回收成功？这事儿说白了就一个字——钱。 能回收就能省钱，发射成本就能下降，发射间隔可以大大缩短，很多地月任务会更加经济可行。 整体来说这相当于考试主科及格了，但附加题没拿到分，而附加题恰恰是拉开差距的关键。 中金指出，不必过度关注单次发射结果，中国可复用火箭技术突破，无非是今年底或明年的时间早晚问题。展望2026年，多款民营可复用火 箭将进入首飞阶段，同时，国家队的CZ-10A/B/C三型重型火箭也计划于明年首飞，其中CZ-10B为面向巨型星座组网的可复用型号。 昨天有人说要写金银，最近贵金属做多情绪确实高涨，内外盘共振上扬，不止黄金白银，铂金、钯金也大涨，铜铝等工业金属表现同步亮 眼。市场资金正加速向"金银铜"集中。 贵金属行情的爆发，核心在于宏观面暂时缺乏显著利空，且"弱美元"持续强化。最后，委内瑞拉等地缘政治紧张局势也推动贵金属上涨。 华西证券指出，4月22日以来，白银表现明显强于黄金 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant market activity surrounding Hainan Free Trade Port, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up following the official launch of the free trade policies on December 18, which includes zero tariffs and low tax rates [16][21]. - The article notes that the overall market saw a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69%, and over 2900 stocks increasing in value, indicating a broad market rally [15][16]. - The article mentions the strong performance of the optical communication sector, driven by news of significant orders and technological breakthroughs, contributing to the overall market enthusiasm [16][9]. Group 2 - The aerospace sector remains active, with the upcoming launch of the Long March 12A rocket scheduled for December 23, which is expected to stimulate investment interest in commercial space ventures [5][17]. - The article discusses the current state of China's commercial aerospace investment, which is characterized as being in a "from 0 to 1" phase, suggesting a high potential for growth and investment opportunities [6]. - The article provides a detailed cost analysis of the Long March 12A rocket, highlighting various components and their associated costs, which could inform investment decisions in related aerospace companies [8]. Group 3 - The consumer sector is facing challenges, with Bloomberg reporting that consumer stocks are on track for their longest annual underperformance, driven by weak retail sales and declining housing prices [11]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of potential recovery, as recent fiscal data indicates a conservative fiscal stance, with expectations for increased fiscal stimulus in 2026 to support economic growth [14]. - The article emphasizes the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand, as highlighted by recent government discussions on infrastructure and investment in consumer-related sectors [14].

摘要 / 主力又来满足愿望了！ 周五没更新，因为那个"左手平潭右手东百求虐"的故事火遍了大江南北，主力再 次在周五满足了一个小散的愿望。盘后平潭罕见上了微博热搜榜，那个炒股不用 曲面屏的段子也很火！ 现在这行情，怪不得大家抱团，其他票根本赚不到钱，可不就去这些妖股嘛？ 说是春季躁动行情，但缺乏启动条件，比如政策、增量资金、经济基本面。 不过也是有一些好消息，比如中证A500的放量，日本加息落地等。 看起来好像是一个抱团瓦解的叙事，不过平潭买一还有5.9亿，哈哈哈，搏一搏，单 车变摩托。 此外，私募一直高仓位运行。据澎湃新闻，截至12月12日，股票私募仓位指数攀 升至83.59%，较前一周环比上涨0.61个百分点，年内新高再度被刷新。 值得关 注的是，12月以来私募加仓意愿持续释放，已实现连续两周稳步加仓。70.34% 的股票私募仓位已大于80%，被明确视为"满仓状态"，为今年以来首次突破七成 关口。 下周进入"双旦"期间，市场较难出现明显放量，整体仍将处于震荡蓄势阶段，可 继续逢低布局。 机构指出，关注下一个可能有效开启躁动行情的信号，包括：1）岁末年初降准 降息落地的可能性，第一个观测窗口在下周初，第二个观 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in the stock market despite a strong Chinese yuan, indicating a shift in investment preferences towards foreign exchange and interest rate markets rather than equities [1] - A new consumption trend termed "reward economy" is emerging among young consumers, which is driving domestic demand and consumption [3] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively [11] - The total trading volume across the three markets was 16,770.09 billion, a decrease of 1,574.99 billion from the previous day [11] - Over 2,800 stocks rose, with 73 stocks hitting the daily limit up [11] Consumption Trends - The "reward economy" is characterized by consumers purchasing non-essential items or experiences to alleviate work-related stress and fulfill psychological needs [3] - This trend is particularly prevalent among young people, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [3] Industry Insights - The semiconductor storage sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with SK Hynix planning to raise SSD contract prices by 100% in Q1 next year [5] - The potential exit of Samsung from the SATA SSD market could significantly impact NAND SSD supply and pricing [5] Economic Policies - Suggestions from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs include providing mortgage interest subsidies to alleviate housing burdens and stabilize the real estate market [7] - A 1% reduction in mortgage rates could offset housing costs and improve rental yields [7] Sector Analysis - The lithium battery industry shows resilience with a planned production of 148.8 GWh, reflecting strong downstream demand [16] - The entertainment and tourism sectors are also highlighted, with companies like Nanjing Shanglv and Fengshang Culture providing cultural tourism and performance services [5] Technology Developments - Huawei's "HarmonyOS Starry Night" event is set to showcase its ecosystem, which includes over 1,200 categories and more than 27 million devices [17] - The launch of the ChatGPT application store marks a significant step in integrating AI applications into everyday use [18]

A股复盘 | 暴赚 / 2025.12.17 哈哈哈，写文章之前看到这张图，给我笑死，群总被做局了！ 昨天刚把那张帝王股图表发给别人，也写在早报里了，希望一切都好 都别骂我！ 今天上午大家还是"任人宰割"的态度，下午GJD打卡上班了，指数大反弹，沪指都涨一个点，势要把3900点收复了！ 群友评论，是白宫炸了还是日本沉了，涨得不踏实！ 大家忙不迭得开始找原因，宽指ETF放量，应该是GJD的手法！ 说到GJD，盘中传出一个消息。但 汇金的消息一般都是官网发布，然后各大媒体转，这个消息哪里都找不到，大概率是假的，或者是内幕！ 12月以来，新生代核心宽基中证A500主题ETF资金流入显著活跃。根据中证报统计，从盘中表现来看，A500ETF华泰柏瑞（563360）今日 成交额罕见突破140亿元，创下历史新高。 截至12月16日，中证A500主题ETF本月已净流入超220亿元， 其中A500ETF南方（159352）、A500ETF华泰柏瑞（563360）、 A500ETF基金（512050）净流入额位居前三，分别为91.24亿元、82.05亿元、48.85亿元。 除了GJD的托底外，日本央行前副行长、政府小组成员若田部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with major indices declining and various sectors showing mixed performance, particularly in aerospace and digital currency [1][3][6]. Market Overview - On December 16, the three major indices collectively fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.10%. The total trading volume for the day was 17,482.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 462.59 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 4,300 stocks declining [14][15]. Sector Movements - The aerospace sector rebounded after initial declines due to rumors about the Long March 12 rocket's launch delay. The sentiment improved following confirmation that the launch target remains set for the end of the month, contingent on weather conditions [3][15]. - The digital currency sector saw activity due to news regarding the digital yuan's management system and its potential reclassification from M0 to M1, which could enhance its operational framework [6][15]. - The retail sector was active following a significant article in a prominent magazine advocating for expanded domestic demand, leading to notable gains in related stocks [15]. Investment Sentiment - According to CITIC Securities, the current bull market's sentiment index peaked at 78.7%, significantly lower than the previous peak of 95.5%. This indicates a structural bull market, with a need for improved funding, valuation, and risk premium sentiment to transition to a full bull market [9]. - The report suggests that further strengthening of funding sentiment may require additional macroeconomic policies or positive economic data to boost investor confidence [9]. Key Industry Developments - The digital currency sector is expected to benefit from new operational institutions as the People's Bank of China aims to optimize the digital yuan's management [6]. - The aerospace sector is witnessing renewed interest, with stocks like Aerospace Electronics experiencing significant gains following the clarification of launch schedules [15]. - The retail sector is also gaining traction, with specific companies achieving consecutive trading limits due to favorable policy signals [15]. Capital Flow - There was a net outflow of 669.51 billion yuan from major funds, with the electric equipment sector experiencing the largest outflow. Conversely, sectors like retail and food and beverage saw net inflows [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected downturn in the A-share market, highlighting the impact of external factors such as the performance of overseas tech stocks and domestic economic indicators, which have shown significant weakness [2][4][5]. Economic Indicators - November economic data in China has been disappointing, with retail sales growing only 1.3% year-on-year and real estate development investment continuing to decline at double-digit rates [2]. - Industrial added value growth has slowed to 4.8%, the lowest since August 2024, while the service production index has also decreased to 4.2%, marking the second-lowest level in 2023 [2]. - The GDP growth rate for the current quarter is reported at 4.8%, with cumulative GDP growth at 5.2% [6]. Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.55%, Shenzhen Component down 1.10%, and ChiNext down 1.77% on December 15 [14]. - The article notes a shift in market dynamics, with a high-cut low trend ending and a potential for a new mainline to emerge as the market experiences disorderly rotation [14]. Sector Performance - The aerospace sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Huazhong Technology and Leike Defense seeing significant gains [14]. - The insurance sector is also highlighted, with China Ping An experiencing a nearly 5% increase, driven by a shift towards low guaranteed return products [14]. Investment Opportunities - The article mentions potential policy measures to support the real estate sector and stimulate investment, with expectations for government bond issuance to accelerate and new subsidies to be introduced [5]. - The AI sector is noted for its significant capital expenditure, with major companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon expected to invest over $400 billion in data center construction over the next 12 months [9][12]. Industry Developments - The article reports on the establishment of a central research institute by Unisoc, focusing on AI chip architecture and algorithms for applications in autonomous driving and robotics [23]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted approval for the first batch of L3-level autonomous driving vehicles, marking a significant step towards commercialization [21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by significant macroeconomic events, including inflation and foreign trade data releases, as well as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below 3900 points this week [1]. Semiconductor Industry - Intel is testing chip manufacturing tools from a well-connected equipment manufacturer, which may be used for its advanced chip manufacturing process expected to begin production in 2027 [1]. - The semiconductor sector saw a sudden rise on Friday, although the reasons for this increase remain unclear [1]. Financial Data - In November, China's social financing increased by 24,885 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan, marking a return to positive growth after three months of decline [6]. - New RMB loans amounted to 3,900 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 1,900 billion yuan, with a notable drop in household loans [7]. Market Trends - The technology sector is expected to see a rebound as geopolitical risks ease and policy expectations improve, with a focus on AI and semiconductor industries [6]. - The stock market is currently in a cautious phase, with significant net selling observed in sectors such as computing, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [32]. Investment Opportunities - The upcoming economic policies and data releases are anticipated to create investment opportunities, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [6]. - The semiconductor and AI sectors are highlighted as areas of potential growth, with specific attention to the TPU industry chain and related technologies [6]. Industry Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to see advancements with the emergence of new technologies, such as silicon-based and perovskite solar cells [11]. - The commercial aerospace sector is preparing for significant IPOs, with SpaceX planning to raise over $30 billion [12]. Consumer Sector - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost consumer spending, including adjustments to personal consumption loan policies [16]. - Guizhou Moutai is expected to introduce a volume control policy, impacting the production and pricing of its products [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need for a balanced relationship between an effective market and a proactive government, as well as the importance of addressing economic challenges through policy support and innovation [1][2]. Economic Challenges - The current economic environment faces significant challenges, including weak domestic demand and risks in key sectors, but the long-term positive trends in China's economy remain intact [1][2]. Policy Direction - The conference highlighted the necessity of a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a budget deficit around 4%, and addressing local government financial difficulties [9][10]. - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with limited room for interest rate cuts [9][10]. Technological Innovation - Emphasis was placed on leading new quality productivity through technological innovation, with plans to strengthen regional innovation centers in major areas like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [10][11]. Social Welfare - The conference outlined initiatives to enhance social welfare, including increasing job opportunities for key demographics and improving healthcare and education access [11][12]. Real Estate Market - The need to stabilize the real estate market was underscored, with strategies to control supply, reduce inventory, and encourage the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [12][13]. Agricultural Policy - The importance of maintaining reasonable prices for essential agricultural products was highlighted, alongside efforts to ensure food security and support farmers [12][13]. Environmental Policy - The conference called for a comprehensive green transition, focusing on reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy sources [12][13]. Regional Development - Plans to optimize the layout of free trade zones and advance the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port were discussed, aiming to enhance regional economic integration [12][13]. Consumer Demand - Initiatives to boost domestic consumption were emphasized, including actions to increase residents' income and improve the supply of quality goods and services [12][13].

A股复盘 | 都要违约了还涨停 / 2025.12.10 万科下午竟然直线拉涨停了？又有什么小作文？且听我娓娓道来！ 早上，彭博报道， 万科今天召开持有人会议，争取债券展期，以避免违约。我没在意这条消息，上午地产也没什么太大动静。 下午万科忽然就要涨停了，赶紧找"小作文"。 一个没有找到原文了解的彭博消息出来了，说是据知情人士透露，中金再度参与万科 shukun，shukun方案已提交 。 但是仔细观察发现，这与11月26日REDD报的差不多， 当时的报道是，两名人士称，SZ 已将一份由中金参与建议的万科报告提交至省，省 将报告转呈至ZY。 就在我准备发的时候，地产小作文哐哐又出来了！不知道的还以为又要四万亿呢 关键是，后来彭博也发了地产异动的文章，但是原因中没写那条号称来自彭博的"小作文"，所以大概率是"炒冷饭"！ 不过临近收盘，万科今日持有人会议内容也流出，主要包括：12月15 日到期的20亿元人民币债券讨论展期一年，如果投资者不投票赞成， 公司将利用宽限期继续与投资者进行谈判。 会上万科强调，其流动性压力"一直在不断升级"，并指出， 该公司的房屋销售已从2021年的水平下降了78%而在此期间，该公司交付 ...