Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of potential military actions by the United States against Iran on global and A-share markets, highlighting the volatility and investor sentiment in response to geopolitical tensions. Group 1: Market Reactions - A-shares experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.36% [9] - The total market turnover reached 12,810 billion, an increase of 591 billion from the previous day, indicating heightened trading activity amid market uncertainty [9] - Over 4,600 stocks in the market were in the red, reflecting widespread selling pressure [9] Group 2: Sector Performance - Oil and gas stocks saw a surge due to the potential for reduced Iranian supply, with companies like Shandong Molong and Zhun Oil achieving five consecutive trading limits [10] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors faced the most significant outflows, with a net outflow of over 700 billion [6][20] - The gaming sector showed resilience, with short drama game stocks leading gains, as Tencent launched a new short drama mini-program [10] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Reports indicated that U.S. President Trump approved plans for military action against Iran, which could escalate tensions in the region [1] - Iranian officials warned against U.S. intervention, stating that all military options were being considered [5] - Market predictions suggest a 65% probability of U.S. military action against Iran by July, while the likelihood of a nuclear agreement by 2025 stands at 50% [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential military involvement of the US in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, as President Trump considers options to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities [1] - The article mentions the recent Lujiazui Forum, where the market did not respond positively despite the presence of major industry leaders, focusing instead on infrastructure construction [1] - The article highlights the introduction of new policies for unprofitable companies to list on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a new foreign research report library that includes reports from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the steady progress of RMB internationalization and proposed eight financial policies to further open the financial system and promote RMB usage [3] - The article notes a significant phenomenon in the market where both ends of the "dumbbell" are simultaneously contracting, indicating extreme market conditions [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight increases across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.24% [4] - AI hardware-related stocks led the market, with several companies experiencing significant gains, driven by strong demand for ASIC chips [4] - Military stocks surged due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with companies like New Light Optoelectronics and North China Long Dragon hitting their upper limits [5] Group 4 - The article presents data from a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating a strong consensus among managers to short the US dollar, reflecting a significant market sentiment shift [9] - Investor sentiment has reportedly returned to levels reminiscent of a "golden girl bull market," with concerns over trade wars and recession fears easing [11] - The survey also reveals that 54% of respondents believe international stocks will perform best over the next five years, with a notable shift away from US assets [12]

A股复盘 | 又跌了 / 2025.06.17 一大早，看到华尔街日报的报道， 中东和欧洲官员表示，伊朗一直在发出紧急信 号，表明其寻求结束敌对行动并恢复有关其核项目的谈判，并通过阿拉伯中间人 向以色列和美国传递信息。 这些官员称，在以色列猛烈的空袭行动中，德黑兰已 告知阿拉伯官员，只要美国不加入攻击，伊朗方面就愿意重返谈判桌。 心想着，今天油气、核污染防治该消停消停了吧！ 结果又是霍尔木兹海峡起火、特朗普提前结束加拿大之行、警告撤离德黑兰啊， 一些资金又回到油气去了！ 这剧情真是扑朔迷离啊 伊朗现在骑虎难下， 被打得真落花流水， 必须得把核武器亮出来了！ 刚写完发现一条新闻，国际原子能机构：已发现伊朗纳坦兹铀浓缩设施遭受直接 打击。 里外一锅端了！ 再说说今天的行情，一个是创新药和新消费大跌，明星股泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、 老铺黄金集体杀跌超5%。 说实话，涨了那么多，该调整调整了！ 虽然昨天周报里写了那个创新药临床试验审批流程提速30日的消息， 但是这段 时间不少机构都在写新消费和创新药交易热度太高！ 周报写了东吴的， 昨天华安也指出， 创新药当前交易拥挤度当前处于2022年以 来的极致水平。 将申万二级行业 ...

Economic Data Summary - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2] - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant increase of 53% year-on-year [2] - The "national subsidy" has been suspended, which may impact future retail sales growth [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In May, housing prices continued to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.7% month-on-month drop in second-hand housing prices, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The investment in real estate has seen an expanded decline in the first five months of the year [4] - Recent data indicates that new home transaction volumes in 30 cities have fallen below seasonal norms, reaching new lows for the same period in recent years [4] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.66% [9] - The total market turnover was 12,438 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,603 billion yuan from the previous day [10] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market experienced gains, with notable increases in stablecoin-related stocks due to positive sentiment around policy and capital [10] Capital Flow in Hong Kong Market - Southbound funds have been the main driving force behind the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative net inflow of 151.45 billion HKD from April 8 to June 9 [14] - International intermediaries have reduced their holdings, while southbound funds have significantly increased their presence in the market [14][15] Digital Economy Trends - The digital human sector is gaining traction, with notable companies involved in AI digital human technology seeing increased market interest [19] - The launch of new digital products and services is expected to enhance the digital economy landscape [19] Financial Sector Developments - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum will focus on enhancing cooperation between Shanghai and Hong Kong as international financial centers [20] - Discussions will include global monetary policy coordination and the sustainable development of capital markets [23]

摘要 / 以伊冲突对A股有何影响？ 送走了关税，没想到又迎来了以伊战火这个黑天鹅，周五A股毫无疑问又为中东 买单了。 | 图2、伊以冲突爆发后(6月13日)全球大类资产涨跌幅 | | --- | | 股市指数&股指期货 | 1 11 1 | UNIVAL / LITT | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 大英资产 | | | 全球重要指数 | 涨跌幅,% | 债券市场 | 变动幅度,bp | | 俄罗斯MOEX | 0.6 | 美国国债收益率-2年期 | 6.0 | | 英国富时100 | -0.4 | 美国国债收益率-10年期 | 5.0 | | 巴西IBOVESPA | -0.4 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅,% | | 恒生指数 | -0.6 | 美元指数 | 0.3 | | 印度Senssex30 | -0.7 | 欧元兑美元 | -0.3 | | 上证指数 | -0.8 | 高岸人民币兑美元 | 0.1 | | 韩国综合指数 | -0.9 | 日元兑美元 | -0.4 | | 日 经225 | -0.9 | 大宗商品 | 涨跌幅, % | | 法国CAC40 | -1.0 ...

A股复盘 | 是谁在保卫3400点？ / 2025.06.12 折腾了一天，沪指竟然守住了3400点，是哪位勇将护卫着大A？ 当然是我们的保险和银行啦。详情请看 《今天谁在"护航"3400点？》 今天还有一个讨论的事情——恒生AH股溢价指数创阶段新低。 6月11日，AH股溢价指数创下5年来新低，跌至127.84点，今天稍微回升了点。 这是否意味着一些投资者会开始买入更便宜的内地股票。 AH股溢价指数反映的是在中国内地和中国香港两地同时上市公司的股票价格差 异。AH股溢价指数下跌，显示H股相较于A股折价有所收窄，背后的直接原因在 于其间H股表现好于A股。 从2024年4月份至今，恒生指数已经历了四轮技术性牛市，底部中枢不断抬升。 再就是今天IP经济大涨，主要是一篇报道。继初代藏品级薄荷色的LABUBU以 108万元拍卖成交后，澎湃报道说，泡泡玛特春节开始紧急找工人复工，扩充产 能，但是"把缝纫机都踩冒烟了也跟不上需求"。 光大证券指出，LABUBU隐藏款年均收益率超300%，部分联名款二手溢价达30 倍 。 惊了！感觉还有得炒！ "年轻人的茅台"——泡泡玛特股价不断刷新纪录，而茅台今天广泛传播的新闻是 飞天跌破 ...

A股复盘 | 以退为进 / 2025.06.11 今天一大早， 跟昨天跳水完全相反的剧情出现了， 不但没有谈崩，还谈得不 错，大致是框架方案出来了，要给各自老大过目审核！ 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢当地时间6月10日向记者表示，经 过2天的谈判， 中方与美方团队已经在原则上达成了一个协议框架。 美国商务部长霍华德·勒特尼克（Howard Lutnick）周二在伦敦为期两天的激烈 谈判结束时表示，中美官员已就一项框架协议达成一致，以使双方的贸易停战重 回正轨， 并解决中国对稀土矿物和磁体的出口限制问题。 勒特尼克在记者会上表示，该框架为上个月在日内瓦达成但因中国对关键矿产出 口的限制而陷入僵局的削减报复性关税协议"增添了实质内容"。他说， 该协议 还将取消美国最近实施的部分出口限制。 "我们已经就落实日内瓦共识以及两国元首通话的内容达成了一个框架，"勒特尼 克说。"我们要回去跟特朗普总统沟通，确保他批准。如果批准了，我们就会开 始实施这个框架。" Lutnick表示，预计特朗普将最快在周三或周四批准该协议。 看中国的通稿！ 5月12日（日内瓦）：会谈是坦诚、深入和建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成 ...

A股复盘 | 滴！A股满减消费券 / 2025.06.10 今天最热闹得就是莫名其妙的跳水，在没有明显的利空的情况下，A股午后直线 跳水，随后美国三大股指期货也转跌了！ 又到了熟悉的找原因环节！ 一个说量化涉及洗钱，要加强监管 ，不过有一个值得关注的，三大交易所加强程 序化交易监管新规将于7月7日正式实施。 大部分都猜是双方谈崩了， 但我一直觉得不太可能，一是第一轮谈完，特朗普反 馈说"不错"，上午A股根本没有动静，怎么下午就直线跳水了？ 第一轮谈判主要聚焦稀土和出口管制， 大概率是拿芯片出口限制换稀土资源！ 据外媒报道， 美国总统特朗普授权财长贝森特的团队就取消近期对华多种技术及 其他产品销售的限制进行谈判。美国国家经济委员会主任哈西特(Kevin Hassett) 周一早些时候表示，美国团队希望与中国在稀土问题上握手言和，美国方面期望 中方会立即放宽出口管制，并大量释放稀土资源。 第二轮今天下午5点才开始，跳水的时候伦敦是凌晨呢，没谈怎么就崩了？不过 稀土、农业这些防御性板块又动了，真是丈二和尚，摸不着头脑！ 群友分享了一个图片，我看了下视频，特朗普说他的目标是开放中国市场，"我 们想开放中国，也许我们什 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant mismatch in the goals of the US and China during trade negotiations, with the US seeking tactical agreements for political gain, while China aims for a comprehensive framework covering trade, technology, and geopolitical stability [1] - Morgan Stanley's weekly strategy meeting indicates that the current trade negotiations may only provide tactical relief rather than a structural consensus [1] - High-frequency data from May shows a decline in China's export growth, with a year-on-year increase of only 4.8%, which is below expectations [2][7] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts a 7% year-on-year increase in May exports based on shipping data, but the actual figure fell short of expectations [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China decreased by 3.3% in May, marking the lowest level since August 2023, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month [15] - The article notes a divergence in price trends, with some service and high-tech product prices rising, indicating a potential release of new economic momentum [18] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market, with the Hang Seng Index rising 21% from its April low [19] - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities expect further upward movement in Hong Kong stocks, driven by domestic policy support and reduced external disturbances [22] - The A-share market showed positive performance, with major indices rising and significant trading volume, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [24][34] Group 4 - The pharmaceutical sector has seen substantial inflows, with the industry experiencing the largest net inflow of funds [34] - The article discusses the potential for Chinese innovative drugs to achieve commercialization globally between 2025 and 2030, with significant projected sales and market value increases [28][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical trial success rates in estimating future sales potential for authorized projects [28]

摘要 / 五穷六绝七翻身 兄弟姐妹萌，之前被关小黑屋一周，这几天都是在群里发一些简单的复盘PDF！ 周五全球吃瓜，马特口水战，但是马斯克真把特朗普宝宝给整生气了，哈哈哈， 虽然删除了相关帖子，其父亲也下场劝架，但是特朗普7日接受美国全国广播公 司电话采访时说，他与特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的关系已经结束。特朗 普同时警告马斯克不要资助民主党，否则将产生"严重后果"。 特朗普还说近期没有计划同马斯克对话。"我太忙了。"特朗普说，"我也不打算和 他说话。" "搅吧！搅吧！你们就搅吧！搅得美军没钱造飞机，边境变成筛子，搅得通胀飙 升、股市崩盘，美国不再伟大！老子无非跟你们拼了！我回来就是要清洗你们， Make America Great Again！" 再就是中美的通话，虽然A股没啥反应，感觉是前几天上涨透支了。不过通话真 是立竿见影，周末，商务部宣布，国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8日至13日访问英 国期间，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 此外，据路透社援引三位消息人士称，中国已向三家主要美国汽车制造商授予稀 土临时出口许可。获得稀土出口许可的三大美国汽车制造商分别是：通用汽车、 福特汽车以及Stell ...