A股复盘 | 查查这句话谁说的 / 2026.01.29 狂跌五年无人问，一朝大涨天下知。 还是股王最有话题度，哈哈哈，茅台大涨8%，段子图嗖嗖就来了！ 想必大家都看到了那个"参与SpaceX上市A轮融资"的段子图。 关键是还真有媒体去求证了，哈哈哈！上证报记者对此进行了求证，贵州茅台方面回应记者称，此为"不实信息"。 近两日，飞天茅台价格出现了一轮持续上涨， 第三方报价平台显示，1月29日，2026年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回 升到1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570元/瓶，前几日茅台的批价还稳定在1550元/瓶左右。 据业内人士透露，目前茅台市场需求并未出现激增的情况， 但临近年末部分烟酒店提前备货和茅台采取的控量策略，或是推动价格上涨的主 要原因。 飞天茅台批发价在经历了23个月的下滑后，自12月中旬起已趋于稳定。随着公司在12月底/1月初宣布全面的营销渠道改革，其价格自那时 起已呈上升趋势。回顾上次类似情形，即2014年初，当时正是茅台股价的底部。 伯恩斯坦认为飞天茅台价格在未来数月有上涨空间，这将成为该股的积极催化剂。目前飞天茅台的渠道利润率约为25%，若飞天茅台批发价 ...

1月，白银价格暴涨超50%，价格刷新历史新高。花旗预计，受中国买盘与供应趋紧推动，未来三个月银价或冲击150美元，若金银比回落甚至指向170美 元。尽管ETF流出、期货抛售等利空仍在，但行情的高速度与高波动已引发市场对阶段性见顶的担忧。 | 2026 / | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 / | 2022 / 2021 / | 2020 / | 2019 | 2018 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 2012 | 2011 / | 2010 . | 2009 | | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 2003 | 2002 / | | 2001 / 2000 | | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 / 1996 | | 1995 / 1994 | / 1993 / 1992 / 1991 | | | | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1987 | 1986 1985 | 1984 | / 1983 | 1982 ...

当前，黄金波动率已成为全球跨资产中的"异常值"，白银亦是如此，不过该市场目前几乎处于失灵状态。 A股复盘 | 砸盘力度越来越小 / 2026.01.2８ 今天又是大赚的一天，先来看看麻麻的每日抛盘！ 又是被黄金"硬控"的一天，金价真是呈现出极其罕见的"末日式飙升"，一天之内连续击穿5200美元、 5300美元多重大关，单日涨幅突破 100 美元，将金价推向了前所未有的历史真空区。 瑞银发布报告指出，自2025年12月以来，至少75%的黄金价格波动来自美国政策。 瑞银用BIS提出的一种新模型（事件定向VAR模型），则可以解释黄金走势中的大部分涨幅。 其基本思想是：如果某一事件或政策冲击在某一天具有足够的主导性——例如"解放日"——我们就可以在该特定事件条件下反推出跨资产的 相关结构，并利用这一结构来拆分在其他任何时间点上，某一资产的市场回报中有多少可以归因于类似性质的冲击——例如其他关税公告。 瑞银识别出的三类冲击包括：关税（图中红色）、对美联储独立性的威胁（图中绿色），以及货币政策（图中黄色）。使用这一技术来看， 自2025年1月以来， 黄金价格走势中有68%是由于美国政策变化所致，而自2025年12月以来， ...

Group 1 - The overall A-share profit growth is expected to accelerate from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, primarily driven by the non-financial sector [1] - The revenue growth of non-financial A-shares is closely related to China's nominal GDP growth and PPI inflation, with a projected nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 [1] - The net profit margin (NPM) of non-financial A-shares has rebounded in the first nine months of 2025, reversing a long-term downward trend since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The financial sector's profit growth is expected to remain stable, supported by solid asset quality in the banking sector and improved market sentiment [2] - The cumulative profit growth of industrial enterprises in China was only 0.1% in the first eleven months of 2025, but certain sectors like computer and electronic equipment manufacturing saw a 15% profit increase [2] - Investors should pay attention to potential revisions in profit growth expectations around April 2026, as historical data shows discrepancies in profit growth forecasts during that period [2] Group 3 - The current rolling P/E ratio of the Wind All A-share index has risen above the historical average, leading some investors to worry about overvaluation [13] - Despite concerns, the equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, indicating potential for further revaluation [13][16] - Factors such as clearer fiscal support, accelerating profit growth, and increased household savings reallocating to stocks are expected to drive A-share growth in 2026 [16] Group 4 - The Chinese central bank plans to moderately expand the deficit and maintain stable credit pulses, which is expected to support A-share revaluation [17] - The anticipated reduction in policy rates and reserve requirement ratios by the central bank may further enhance liquidity in the market [17] - A moderate expansion in P/E ratios is expected as profit growth accelerates, with historical data showing a correlation between profit growth and P/E ratios [21] Group 5 - The ongoing market capitalization management reforms are changing investor perceptions, leading to increased focus on shareholder returns [27] - A-share cash dividends reached 2.06 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase, while stock buybacks have also risen [27] Group 6 - Daily trading volume in A-shares has significantly increased in 2026, driven by improved investor risk appetite, with average daily turnover reaching 3.03 trillion yuan [28] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down excessive trading activity, with daily turnover ratios fluctuating [28][33] - The financing balance in A-shares reached a historical high of 2.7 trillion yuan, indicating increased leverage in the market [33] Group 7 - The trend of reallocating household savings towards stocks is evident, with a significant portion of household deposits still available for investment in A-shares [40] - Despite a recent uptick in the stock market, the influx of household funds into the market has not yet reached overheating levels [42][46] - The potential for further inflows into A-shares exists as investors may gradually shift from fixed-income products to equity investments [49] Group 8 - The issuance of active funds has been slow, but the performance of equity funds has improved, potentially leading to increased inflows as market conditions stabilize [53] - The ETF market has seen rapid growth, with A-share holdings in ETFs surpassing those in active equity funds for the first time [58] Group 9 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery, enhancing corporate profitability [64] - The narrowing and eventual recovery of PPI is crucial for the revenue growth of non-financial A-shares, which may lead to stock price revaluation [65] Group 10 - The growth style is expected to outperform the value style in the mid-term, with cyclical stocks likely to perform better than defensive stocks [66] - Tactical preferences lean towards sectors benefiting from innovation, ample liquidity, and narrowing PPI, such as electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [66] Group 11 - Despite recent declines in financing balances and market turnover, the technology sector's fundamentals remain strong, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [75] - Metrics for assessing trading congestion in technology stocks include the proportion of trading volume and financing balances relative to market capitalization [78]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with significant movements in various sectors, particularly in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, indicating a dynamic trading environment influenced by both market sentiment and specific corporate actions [1][3][6]. Market Performance - On January 27, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.71%. The total trading volume across the three markets was 29,217.07 billion, a decrease of 3,593.09 billion from the previous day [9]. - A total of 59 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 24 stocks closing at the limit and 16 stocks achieving consecutive limit up, the maximum being six consecutive limit ups [9]. Sector Highlights - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with companies like E-Tech and Dongxin Co. hitting the limit up. Reports indicated significant price increases for various semiconductor products, with price hikes of 10% to 80% announced by several firms [3][9]. - The AI sector also saw notable advancements, with several companies releasing upgraded models, including DeepSeek's new OCR model and Kimi's K2.5 model, which achieved state-of-the-art performance in various tasks [4][5]. Corporate Actions - Ant Group's Lingbo Technology announced the open-sourcing of a high-precision spatial perception model, LingBot-Depth, indicating a push towards enhancing AI capabilities [5]. - Zhizhu Company is progressing with its IPO plans after its recent listing in Hong Kong, continuing to pursue an A-share listing [6]. Financial Performance - Companies like Nanya New Materials and Zhenray Technology projected significant profit increases for 2025, with expected net profits growing by 337.20% to 416.69% and 529.64% to 642.26%, respectively [17]. - Zhongjin Gold announced an expected net profit increase of 41.76% to 59.48% for 2025, reflecting positive growth trends in the mining sector [18]. Investment Trends - The main capital outflow was observed in the electric equipment sector, with a net outflow of 103.54 billion, while the electronic and communication sectors saw net inflows, indicating shifting investor preferences [22][24]. - The market's valuation dynamics showed that sectors like non-bank financials and food and beverage are currently at historical low PE percentiles, suggesting potential investment opportunities [28].

A股复盘 | 来，朝这儿砸 / 2026.01.26 谁这么会总结？建议去 SpaceX上班！ 今天咱妈又教育熊孩子了。早上先是ETF放量，尾盘又来压，紫金矿业卖一超40亿元 。 主要是，黄金白银真的涨疯了！早上还没开盘就直线冲破了5000美元，突破重要关口之后直线加速，午后一度涨超5100美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 受此影响，申万一级有色金属行业今日大涨4.57%，而今年以来有色金属行业大涨24%，其中紫金矿业大涨14.59%。 美银分析师迈克尔·哈特尼特（Michael Hartnett）在一份致客户的报告中写道："历史虽不能完全预示未来，但回顾此前四轮黄金牛市，金价在约43个月内平 均上涨达300%。 这一规律暗示，金价有望在2026年春季升至每盎司6000美元。"若该目标实现，意味着金价将较当前历史高位再上涨逾20%。 再说存储，有个传闻，咱们群友跑得快！ | 立昂微v | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605358 融 沪股通 L1 | | | | | | 42.63 | 高 | 44.20 | 市值 286.21亿 | 量比 1.35 | | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant net outflow of 323.7 billion, reversing the previous trend of continuous net inflow, with ETFs accounting for a major portion of this outflow at 325.2 billion [1] - The trading volume of major broad-based index ETFs reached a historical high of 152.5 billion on January 23 [1] ETF Analysis - East Wu Securities interprets the current market as a need to stabilize the index and repair volatility, noting that the 20-day volatility index for the Shanghai Composite Index reached 95.2, indicating a need for a correction [3] - Citic Securities suggests that the rapid reduction of broad-based ETF holdings is primarily due to profit-taking in a strong market environment, rather than a direct impact on the overheating of small-cap stocks and thematic trading [5] - The remaining holdings in major ETFs include approximately 647 billion in the CSI 300 ETF and around 236 billion in the ChiNext ETF, indicating substantial institutional investor presence with about 1 trillion in total ETF holdings [5][6] Fund Management Insights - In Q4, active equity funds significantly increased their positions in resource sectors, with a record allocation of 13.3% in resource stocks, particularly in non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals [14] - Approximately 40% of existing active equity funds have net values exceeding their highs from 2020-2022, indicating a strong recovery among mid to high net worth individuals [8] Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with significant developments such as the completion of the listing guidance for Zhongke Aerospace and advancements in reusable rocket technology by SpaceX [22][23] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by demand for AI applications and advanced manufacturing technologies [20][21] Commodity Market - Precious metals have seen a substantial increase, with gold prices reaching 4,991.4 USD/ounce, marking the largest weekly percentage gain since 2020, while silver prices also hit record highs [34] - The copper price has rebounded to 13,000 USD, nearing its earlier monthly peak, indicating strong demand in the commodities market [34] A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market saw a net inflow of 82.8 billion, with the top sectors attracting capital being electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals [41] - Northbound trading volume decreased to 1.69 trillion, down from 2 trillion the previous week, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [42]

A股复盘 | 来，朝这儿砸 / 2026.01.22 真没招了啊！网友真是什么沙雕图都有！ 锋龙17板了？还不关小黑屋？ 国晟出狱了，一个涨停，维权群变宠粉群！利欧明天开？ 国晟科技维权群(241) 所有原告听令,立刻撤诉,立刻叛变,马上梭哈,马上封板 Philip 所有原告听令,立刻撤诉,立刻叛变,马上梭哈,马上封板 所有原告听令,立刻撤诉,立刻叛变,马上梭哈,马上封板 令,立刻撤诉,立刻叛变,马上梭哈,马上封板 所有原告听令,立刻撤诉,立刻叛变,马上梭哈,马上封板 xdm,不封板都得死,快点加单 兄弟们,马上20个点了,怎么花 = (法) ,立刻撤诉,立刻叛变,马上梭哈,马上封板 G 8 13:22 员 国晟科技 603778 LT 12.25 18.00 市值 115.04亿 量比 高 17.52 17.11% 14.73 流通 112.63亿 (HE 换 1.15 7.03% 14.73 亏损 16.44亿 开 市盈 TTM 额 同排顺 龙虎榜:01-21入选,净买入-241.9万元;买入总计5 ... 雷诺 分时 日K 日K 五月 图K 国交 (0) /J HJ 均价: 14.94 最新: 17.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting significant gains in technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, driven by supply shortages and price increases in CPUs and memory chips [1][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 21, the three major indices in the A-share market collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.70%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.53% [18]. - The total trading volume across the three markets was 26,240 billion, a decrease of 1,804.27 billion from the previous day, with over 300 stocks rising [18]. - A total of 91 stocks hit the daily limit up, with the maximum consecutive limit up reaching 16 [18]. Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a significant rebound, with domestic chip stocks surging. Notably, Longxin Technology hit the daily limit up, and several other stocks like Yingfang Micro and Tongfu Microelectronics also reached their daily limits [18]. - The increase in stock prices is attributed to a shortage in memory chips, with U.S. companies like Micron, Seagate, and SanDisk hitting record highs [18]. - Intel and AMD are expected to raise server CPU prices by 10%-15% in 2026, further driving interest in the semiconductor supply chain [2][18]. Group 3: CPU Demand and AI Impact - The demand for CPUs is projected to increase significantly due to the rise of AI agents, with estimates suggesting a need for up to 1,760,899 CPUs in optimistic scenarios for 2024, compared to a global shipment of 3,200 million CPUs [3]. - The article emphasizes that CPUs may become a bottleneck before GPUs in AI applications, as they are crucial for generating and evaluating tasks in reinforcement learning [11]. - A new paradigm proposed in the DeepSeek paper highlights the importance of CPU memory in handling large parameters, suggesting a shift in how AI models are structured [11][12]. Group 4: Material Costs and Industry Outlook - Japanese semiconductor material manufacturer Resonac announced a price increase of over 30% for PCB materials starting March 1, which could impact the overall cost structure in the semiconductor industry [12]. - Goldman Sachs projects a compound annual growth rate of 34% for optical modules from 2026 to 2028, with expected shipments reaching 94 million units by 2028, indicating a positive outlook for the optical communication sector [18].

Core Insights - The sentiment among fund managers is extremely optimistic, with a significant shift in macroeconomic expectations from "recession" to "prosperity" [1][2] - Global growth expectations have risen to 38%, an increase of 20 percentage points, marking the highest level since July 2021, while the probability of recession has dropped to 9%, the lowest since January 2022 [1] - Profit expectations are also high, with a net 44% of managers optimistic about EPS over the next 12 months, the highest since July 2021 [2] - Concerns about stagflation have decreased from 58% to 39%, with 34% anticipating a "prosperity" scenario and 18% a "golden age" [3] - Inflation expectations driven by tariffs have significantly declined, with a net 3% believing CPI will decrease [4] Asset Allocation - There is a strong preference for equities and commodities, while bonds are being abandoned [5] - Stock allocation is at a net overweight of 48%, the highest since December 2024, and commodity allocation is at 26%, the highest since June 2022, while bond allocation is at a net underweight of 35%, the highest since September 2022 [12] - The banking sector has become the most overweight industry, while consumer staples are at their largest underweight since February 2014 [12] - High-yield bonds are expected to outperform investment-grade bonds for the first time [12] - The most crowded trade is long gold, with 51% of managers favoring it, surpassing the "Seven Sisters" trade at 27% [12] Risk Landscape - The primary risks identified are geopolitical tensions and the potential for an AI bubble, with geopolitical conflict cited by 28% of respondents and AI bubble concerns by 27% [5][6] - Credit events are anticipated to be triggered by private equity/private credit (39%) and large-scale capital expenditures in AI (35%) [6] - Political expectations for the 2026 midterm elections are nearly evenly split between "red wave" and "blue wave" scenarios [7] - There is a notable division regarding AI stocks, with 55% believing they are "not in a bubble" [8] Market Sentiment - The bull-bear indicator stands at 9.4, indicating a deep "sell" zone, with cash levels at 3.2%, a historical low [11] - A record 48% of respondents are "zero hedged" against market downturns, the highest since January 2018 [11] - Risk appetite is above normal by 16%, the highest in four years, with 49% of managers expecting an "impossible landing" scenario for the global economy [11] Strategic Insights - Michael Hartnett warns that in a world filled with good news, low hedging may seem harmless, but any unexpected negative turn could amplify impacts, highlighting current market fragility [9]