Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the true beneficiaries of the AI revolution are not only the companies creating AI technologies but also those that effectively integrate AI into their operations to enhance efficiency and profitability, referred to as "second-order winners" [1][2][9]. Group 1: Historical Context and Examples - Historical examples illustrate that during technological revolutions, the greatest returns often come from companies that leverage new technologies rather than those that create them. For instance, the automotive industry saw more significant gains from downstream service providers than from car manufacturers [1][2]. - Gulf Refining's establishment of self-service gas stations exemplifies how companies can capitalize on technological advancements without being the creators of the technology [2]. Group 2: AI Integration in Companies - Companies like Shake Shack have successfully integrated AI and automation to enhance operational efficiency, reducing the time to prepare meals and lowering labor costs while increasing employee wages and profit margins [3]. - Ecolab's modeling indicates that it can automate approximately 50% of high-probability automation roles, leading to significant cost savings and improved profit margins without altering revenue [4]. Group 3: Chinese Companies Leveraging AI - JD Logistics has implemented the "Zhi Lang" system, which has tripled picking efficiency and significantly improved sorting accuracy, contributing to its profit growth [6]. - Ping An has effectively utilized AI in insurance processes, achieving rapid underwriting and claims processing, which has led to substantial cost reductions and enhanced customer experience [6]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that have embedded AI into their operations, as these firms are likely to provide more stable returns compared to high-valuation AI technology creators [7]. - The characteristics of promising companies include labor-intensive operations that can benefit from AI cost reductions, clear and repetitive business processes, and the ability to scale AI applications effectively [7]. Group 5: Macro Economic Impact - The integration of AI is expected to reshape overall productivity in China, with projections indicating a potential GDP increase of about 8% by 2030 due to AI applications across various sectors [8]. - Companies that can quickly adapt and utilize AI to enhance efficiency are likely to continue benefiting from the efficiency dividends in the coming years [8]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes that AI represents a revolution in efficiency, and investors should focus on companies that effectively integrate AI into their business models, as these "downstream" enterprises may yield better returns than those merely creating AI technologies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump in 2025, focusing on the implications for various asset classes including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold, amidst rising economic policy uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty - Since March 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, indicating significant uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly following the announcement of "super tariffs" [2]. - The index's daily average in Q1 2025 surpassed any quarter during Trump's first term, even exceeding levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of over 10% in early April 2025, marking the largest drop since 2020, but rebounded by 9.5% the day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs [2]. - Overall, despite volatility, the S&P 500 recovered and reached a historical high in June 2025 [2]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In April 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3.96% to 4.6%, a three-year high, contrary to typical behavior during risk shocks [4]. - This rise in yield was attributed to concerns over cost-push inflation, declining tolerance for U.S. fiscal deficits, and a liquidity squeeze due to leveraged fund sell-offs [4]. Group 4: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 104.2 to 96.8 by July 1, 2025, representing a decline of approximately 10.7% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Factors contributing to this decline included foreign capital selling U.S. Treasuries, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing doubts about U.S. policy stability [5]. Group 5: Gold - Gold prices surged to over $3,300 per ounce in mid-April 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of around 27% [6]. - The rise in gold prices was driven by significant inflows into global ETFs and increased purchases by central banks, particularly in China, India, and Russia [6]. Group 6: Comparison with Previous Trade War - The article compares the market reactions between the 2018-2019 trade war and the 2025 tariff conflict, highlighting differences in stock performance, bond yields, dollar strength, and gold prices [8]. - The 2019 trade war saw a "soft landing" due to rapid Fed rate cuts and a bilateral framework agreement, while the current situation faces more constraints due to persistent inflation and high interest rates [8]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future market direction heavily depends on the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and other countries regarding tariffs [9]. - A resolution could lead to a sustained stock market rally, while an escalation in trade conflicts may result in increased market volatility and a further decline in the dollar's safe-haven status, with gold remaining a reliable asset [9].

Core Viewpoint - The pursuit of happiness is often overshadowed by more concrete and realistic aspects such as family health, life security, and financial stability, rather than happiness itself [1][2]. Group 1: Research Findings - The study found that "children's health" has a marginal utility 67 times the average, indicating that respondents are willing to make significant sacrifices for even a slight improvement in their children's health [2]. - Other top welfare dimensions include "children's happiness," "ability to provide economic support for the family," and "personal health," while "life satisfaction" has a marginal utility of only 1.6-2 times the average, indicating a lower priority [2]. - The research suggests that happiness is not the ultimate goal but rather a byproduct of fulfilling responsibilities, health, and stability [2]. Group 2: Philosophical Perspectives - Historical perspectives from philosophers like Aristotle and Mencius align with the study's findings, emphasizing that happiness arises from a life of virtue and moral integrity rather than mere sensory pleasure [3][4]. - Both Western and Eastern philosophies converge on the idea that happiness is achieved through the realization of moral values rather than the accumulation of emotional gratification [4]. Group 3: Individual Preferences - The study highlights that individual preferences are shaped more by personal experiences, resources, and mental states than by demographic factors such as age, gender, or income [4][5][6]. - Personal experiences, including childhood environment and significant life events, significantly influence what individuals prioritize in life [5]. - Resources such as wealth, health, and social relationships determine the potential for achieving various welfare dimensions, affecting how individuals perceive value in different aspects of life [5]. Group 4: Psychological Factors - A person's cognitive state, including their emotional regulation and comparison mechanisms, profoundly impacts their happiness experience [6]. - There is often a discrepancy between what individuals claim is important and what they are willing to sacrifice for it, indicating that subjective happiness is a result rather than a goal [6][7]. - The study concludes that when individuals focus on stability, close relationships, and health, happiness naturally follows, rather than being a direct pursuit [7].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, 2024, has quickly become a focal point in the financial market, attracting over $75 billion in inflows within the first year despite regulatory challenges [1][4]. Market Performance - The first ten spot Bitcoin ETFs launched have shown exceptional performance, with IBIT, GBTC, and FBTC capturing the majority of market share. IBIT has accumulated over $60 billion in assets under management (AUM), while FBTC has around $20 billion. GBTC, despite its higher management fee of 1.5%, still holds nearly $20 billion in AUM [4]. - All spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately 80% annual returns since inception, primarily due to the relatively low Bitcoin price at launch ($42,000) compared to its price in early May 2025 (around $100,000) [8]. Advantages of Spot Bitcoin ETFs - **Liquidity and Convenience**: Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a convenient investment method for cryptocurrencies, mitigating storage and security risks associated with direct Bitcoin ownership, especially for institutional investors [10]. - **Cost Efficiency**: Spot Bitcoin ETFs generally have lower fees compared to futures ETFs, with HODL offering a 0% fee strategy, enhancing cost-effectiveness [11]. - **Low Correlation with Mainstream Assets**: The correlation of spot Bitcoin ETFs with global stock indices (MSCI ACWI) is around 0.25, providing diversification benefits for stock portfolios [12]. - **High Market Acceptance**: The direct tracking of Bitcoin prices by spot ETFs aligns with market expectations, leading to significant investor interest and trust in products like IBIT and FBTC [13]. Disadvantages of Spot Bitcoin ETFs - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: The SEC's cautious stance on the Bitcoin spot market poses long-term challenges for the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs, as opposed to futures ETFs which are based on regulated futures contracts [15]. - **High Market Volatility**: Bitcoin's inherent price volatility presents risks, with annualized volatility for GBTC reaching 56.9%, similar for IBIT and FBTC [16]. - **Complex Arbitrage Mechanisms**: Spot Bitcoin ETFs may occasionally trade at prices deviating from their net asset value (NAV) due to liquidity and arbitrage constraints, as seen with GBTC's previous significant discount [17]. Future Outlook - The successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a significant shift in cryptocurrency investment methods, with IBIT and FBTC emerging as preferred choices due to their lower fees and high market acceptance. However, regulatory changes and increased market competition may introduce new uncertainties [18].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 2025 Singapore general election is a critical examination of the country's governance model, focusing on issues such as global competitiveness, political transparency, and social cohesion [15]. Political Landscape - The election will feature 211 candidates vying for 97 elected parliamentary seats across 33 constituencies, with the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) and the main opposition Workers' Party (WP) being the key players [2][4]. - The PAP, led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, has been in power since Singapore's independence in 1965, while the WP aims to secure at least one-third of the seats to enhance parliamentary checks and balances [4][5]. Party Positions - The PAP advocates for a continuation of globalization and economic openness, emphasizing order, efficiency, and elite governance, while providing limited support to disadvantaged groups [6]. - The WP promotes constructive checks and gradual reforms, focusing on living costs, housing affordability, and employment security, while maintaining fiscal sustainability [6]. - Other smaller opposition parties, such as the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), prioritize local citizen welfare and advocate for tighter foreign labor policies [6]. Voter Demographics - The PAP primarily attracts "winners" from the globalized economy, including well-educated individuals with stable jobs who benefit from economic growth [7]. - Conversely, some voters support the WP to ensure a healthy debate in parliament and to hold the PAP accountable for its decisions [9]. - A segment of the electorate, comprising those who feel left behind by globalization, may lean towards more populist opposition parties seeking greater government support and welfare [9][10]. Governance Debate - The election raises questions about the balance between freedom and order, with criticisms of the PAP's governance style focusing on political and speech freedoms [11]. - The success of Singapore's governance model is contrasted with other nations, such as Mauritius and Taiwan, highlighting the potential risks of centralized governance and the need for adaptability [12][13]. Future Considerations - The 2025 election serves as a reminder for voters to consider Singapore's ability to maintain its global competitiveness while fostering a more open and responsible civil society [15]. - The PAP must demonstrate its commitment to the public interest and effective governance to retain voter support amidst rising scrutiny [14].

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今天这篇⽂章，想与⼤家共同探讨⼀个话题：⼀个⼈能⾛多远，取决于什么？ 我想从⾃⼰⾝边的⼏个真实案例谈起。 案例⼀：来⾃伦敦集团总部的董事总经理 A 案例⼆：新加坡实习⽣ B B 是新加坡⼈，曾在本⼈公司实习过六个⽉。他出⾝于新加坡普通组屋家庭，兄弟三⼈，成绩⼀般，初中毕业后进⼊新加坡⼀所⼤专。【注：新加坡教育分 流机制如下：前 10% 的学⽣进⼊直通⻋中学（免中考，初⾼连读）；中考成绩前 20% 进⼊⾼中；其余约 50% 进⼊⼤专；剩下 20% 进职校。】 B 没有就此⽌步，⽽是从⼤专努⼒申请并成功进⼊南洋理⼯⼤学，主修物理（该校分数线最低专业）。在⼤四期间，他来到我公司实习。起初对⾦融投资⼀ ⽆所知，但他勤奋踏实，每天第⼀个到、最后⼀个⾛，完成任务⼀丝不苟，深受同事好评。实习结束后，他也很快从南洋理⼯⼤学毕业，然后进了⼀家新加 坡的基⾦公司。后来他特地发信给我们，告诉我如果没有这段实习经历，以他的成绩和物理专业背景，完全不可能进⼊基⾦公司。在基⾦公司⼯作两年后， B 跳槽去了德意志银⾏投⾏部。德银的投⾏部是⾮常难进的，是很多顶尖⼤学⾦融专业学⽣梦寐以求的职位。 案例三：我⾃⼰ 与 A 和 B 不同，我的起点 ...

当市场中的避险情绪上升，比如当美国总统特朗普忽然宣布对全球大部分国家征收关税时，股市整体都会下跌，绝大部分股票都会受其影响而被抛售。哪怕 一个公司的业绩和进出口贸易无关，其价格也会被大盘带动而下跌回撤。在这个时候，有些投资者会觉得他需要一些"避险资产"，或者"投资保险"，来保 护他的投资组合，维持他的理智，帮助他在价格暴跌时不至于被迫出售那些长期看好的股票。 那么问题来了：哪些资产可以帮助投资者达到"保险"的功能呢？ 第一个选项是 政府国债 。 这里的国债，主要指那些信用评级比较高的发达国家政府国债，比如美国、英国、澳大利亚、德国等。由于发行这些国债的国家政府信用评级比较高，市场 对他们比较信任，几乎不用担心他们像阿根廷政府那样违约，因此这些国家的政府国债是很多投资机构最青睐的"保险资产"之一。 前摩根士丹利策略师 Stephen Jen 曾提出过一个金融理论，叫做 美元微笑曲线 ，来解释美元在不同经济环境下为何能表现强势的现象。在全球风险上 升、经济衰退或金融市场动荡时，投资者寻求 " 避险资产 " 。美元因其全球储备货币地位以及美国国债市场的深度和流动性，被认为是最安全的资产。此 时，资本流入美国，美元升 ...

特朗普对于俄罗斯和普京的态度，一直以来都是比较温和友好的。在他的第一任总统期间，经常被人诟病对俄罗斯的态度过于友善，甚至被怀疑有"通俄"的 嫌疑，并引发了前ＦＢＩ局长罗伯特·穆勒对于特朗普的特别调查。在经过长达２年时间的调查后，穆勒得出结论：没有证据显示特朗普在２０１６年总统选 战时和俄罗斯勾结，但是特朗普可能犯下妨碍司法公正之罪。然后在２０１９年，穆勒宣布结束调查并退休，此案不了了之。 穆勒对于特朗普的调查，背后很大一部分主因是美国两党之间的党争，但说特朗普和普京之间完全没有干系，恐怕也说不过去，毕竟无风不起浪。在公开场 合的演讲和采访中，特朗普曾多次赞美普京，并用普京的例子来贬低拜登。在过去几天，特朗普和普京的友谊再一次升华：特朗普公开指责乌克兰总统泽连 斯基为"独裁者"，批评泽连斯基故意拖延乌克兰的总统选举，同时派特别代表去乌克兰和泽连斯基见面，要求泽连斯基签字代表乌克兰出售该国未来的矿产 收入，以向美国偿还高达５０００亿美元的战争援助款。同时，美国政府直接和俄罗斯在沙特就停战条件开始谈判，将乌克兰和欧盟排除在外。 特朗普做出的这些决定，和前任拜登相比可谓１８０度大转弯，美国在俄乌冲突中的立场，一下子从 ...

从本质上来说，任何投资决策都是预测未来。无论你决定购买股票，卖出债券，或者坐拥现金，其实都是基于你对未来做出的判断之上的决策。因此有很多 人认为，如果想要获得好的投资回报，投资者一定要有超凡的预测未来的能力。那么问题来了：事实确实是这样么？ 在分析这个问题之前，我们先来看张图。 图表 1 ：市场对美联储基准利率的预测总是错 数据来源：彭博社，Apollo Chief Economist 上图展示了自2008年以来美联储基准利率的历史（绿色实线）。站在现在回头看，我们可以看到一条非常清晰的历史路径：美联储在2008年金融危机后，立 刻大幅度降息至零，并将零利率水平一直保持到2016年。在2016到2020年间，美联储慢慢逐步升息。然后到了2020年，COVID疫情发生后，美联储再次将利 率降到零。从2022年开始，为了应对通胀压力，美联储又快速将基准利率提到5%左右。 很多人可能没有意识到的是，市场对于美联储未来利率的预测（上图中虚线）， 从来没有正确过 。举例来说，在2008到2016年间，美联储利率始终保持在 零，然而同期市场的共识是：美联储很快就会升息。很少有人会预料到，零利率会整整持续8年。 接下来，让 ...