Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector has rebounded strongly after a brief correction, with significant inflows into Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs, indicating renewed investor interest and confidence in the sector [1][3]. Fund Flow and Market Activity - As of June 23, multiple innovative drug-themed ETFs saw trading volumes exceeding 3%, with the total inflow into Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs surpassing 3 billion yuan since June [1][3]. - The trading activity on June 23 was particularly high, with the GF Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF achieving a transaction volume of 9.228 billion yuan, ranking first among all equity ETFs [3]. - The net subscription amount for innovative drug-themed ETFs reached 3.54 billion yuan since June 1, with significant contributions from the Huatai-PB Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF and GF Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF [3]. Future Fundraising and Opportunities - More incremental capital is expected in the innovative drug sector, with several new funds being launched, including the Huabao Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF and the Xinyuan China Innovative Drug Index Fund [4]. - The current market sentiment suggests a focus on innovative drug companies with validated commercialization capabilities and breakthroughs in AI-assisted research [6]. Performance and Market Sentiment - Despite recent adjustments, funds heavily invested in the innovative drug sector have outperformed, with some funds reporting returns exceeding 60% year-to-date [6]. - The short-term adjustments in the innovative drug sector are attributed to market sentiment fluctuations and capital rotation, but the long-term fundamentals remain intact [6]. - The innovative drug sector is characterized by high risks, high barriers, high returns, and long cycles, reflecting a strategic pricing logic in the capital market [7]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with reliable management, sound equity structures, forward-looking pipeline layouts, efficient clinical progress, and suitable commercialization partners [8]. - The innovative drug sector is currently in a phase where performance is expected to continue improving, but caution is advised as the final stages of market cycles may lead to significant bubbles [8].

Market Overview - On June 24, the A-share market opened quietly but saw a continuous rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up over 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index up over 1%, and the ChiNext Index up over 1.6%, with more than 4500 stocks rising across the market [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a similar upward trend, with all three major indices rising by over 1.5% [3] Sector Performance - Non-bank financials, automotive, media, and computer sectors showed strong performance, while oil and gas, shipping, and defense sectors faced declines [1][11] - The stock of smart driving concepts surged, with notable stocks like Hengshuai Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit of 20% increase [6][8] Notable Stocks - In the automotive sector, several stocks reached their daily limit, including Hengshuai Co., Ltd. (up 20%), Jiaoyun Co., Ltd. (up 10.11%), and others [6][7] - Non-bank financial stocks were active, with Guosheng Financial Holdings and Hongye Futures both hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Xiangcai Shares and China Galaxy showing significant gains [8][9] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector faced significant declines, with stocks like Tongyuan Petroleum down 20.03% and Qianeng Hengxin down 13.05% [12][13] - The decline in the oil and gas sector was attributed to geopolitical tensions, specifically Iran's missile strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices [15][16] Defense Sector - The defense and military sector also saw a downturn, with stocks like Jieqiang Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit down and others like Beifang Longchuang and Xinguang Optoelectronics dropping over 10% [16]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in July if inflation pressures remain moderate, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman [3][4] - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a shift in focus towards potential labor market weakness [3] - Current data shows that Trump's tariffs have had minimal impact on inflation, allowing for a more favorable environment for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% probability of a rate cut at that meeting and a 78% probability for September [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential retaliation against U.S. military facilities, is causing market fluctuations but has not significantly impacted oil prices [6][8] - Despite rising geopolitical risks, analysts believe that the global oil supply remains sufficient, which helps to manage the associated risks [8][9]

6月23日，据中国建设银行消息， 该行成功向特定对象发行A股股票，发行对象为财政部，募集资金总 额为1050亿元，在扣除相关发行费用后，全部用于补充建设银行核心一级资本 。 建设银行表示，此次发行是落实国家"一揽子增量金融政策"的重要组成部分，有利于建设银行资本实力 进一步增强和资本结构进一步优化，为提升金融服务实体经济质效、增强风险抵补能力、巩固稳健经营 发展能力提供坚实保障。 此前，6月13日，交通银行1200亿元定增认购资金到账，中国银行定增募资1650亿元落地；6月17日，邮 储银行成功完成1300亿元A股定向增发。 至此，四大行注资事项均已落地。 财政部发行特别国债注资四大行 今年的政府工作报告提出，拟发行特别国债5000亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。 此前，中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行四家国有大行于3月30日同步发布定增预案，合计募 资金额达5200亿元。其中，财政部认购中国银行、建设银行全部新发行股份，并认购交通银行、邮储银 行逾九成新增股份，合计出资规模达5000亿元，用以夯实资本实力，拓展未来发展空间。 此外，交通银行的定增认购对象中，除了财政部，还有中国烟草和双维投资（中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery with all three major indices rising, and over 4,400 stocks experiencing gains, particularly in the new energy and banking sectors [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The banking sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a 12.73% increase, making it the best-performing sector [6][12]. - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has achieved six consecutive days of gains, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization of 2.68 trillion yuan [9][12]. Investment Trends - Analysts predict a potential upward trend in the A-share market for the second half of the year, driven by a new round of supply-side reforms [5]. - The banking sector's rise is attributed to high dividend yields and low valuations, attracting continuous capital inflow amid increasing risk aversion [13][22]. Institutional Insights - The Chinese government has announced the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support major banks, which is expected to mitigate the impact of interest rate cuts on net interest margins [14]. - Public funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks, with the market value reaching 184.15 billion yuan, up nearly 100% from the end of 2023 [16]. Foreign Investment - Southbound capital has also been actively investing in Hong Kong bank stocks, with net inflows exceeding 700 billion yuan this year, including 136.5 billion yuan specifically in bank stocks [19]. Valuation Analysis - The banking sector's valuation has dropped below 5 times earnings, indicating a potential for upward adjustment similar to past trends observed in 2014 [21]. - The current average valuation of the banking sector stands at 7 times earnings, suggesting room for growth [21]. Strategic Recommendations - In a narrow trading range, a "dividend + technology" strategy is recommended, focusing on low-valuation, stable-earning stocks for safety, while also investing in technology sectors that are experiencing rapid innovation [28].

为促进长期投资、价值投资、理性投资，诚邀您参加由中证金融研究院和西南财经大学中国 家庭金融调查与研究中心联合开展的 "投资者行为与储蓄投资转化研究" 问卷调查。本问卷为 匿名填报，填写约需 10分钟。我们承诺，问卷数据仅用于科学研究及政策优化，不会泄露您 的个人信息。 填完问卷您将获得一份您个人投资行为的简要测评，作为您观察自身投资习惯 的参考。 长按下方二维码或点击底部阅读原文即可填写问卷。 长按下方二维码填写问卷 根据问卷填写质量，会得到金额不等的微信红包，弹出二维码后领取即可。 以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性和完整性做任何保证。 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相关 戳阅读原文，立即填写问卷！ 分享、点赞、在看 顺手三连越来越有钱 感谢您的参与，祝您健康愉快！ 免责声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has significantly outperformed other industries in the A-share market, with 19 bank stocks reaching historical highs this year, representing 45.24% of all bank stocks, and the banking index rising by 12.73% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Performance - On June 20, multiple bank stocks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, reached historical highs [1]. - Jiangsu Bank set a record with 24 historical highs this year, the most among bank stocks [1]. - The banking sector's index has increased by 12.73%, while the CSI 300 index has decreased by 2.24% [1]. Comparison with Other Industries - The automotive sector had only 19.06% of its stocks reaching historical highs, with the most frequent being Redick at 19 times [1]. - The machinery equipment sector had a historical high stock percentage of 15.96%, with Haomai Technology also reaching 19 times [1]. - Other sectors like telecommunications, beauty care, and electronics also showed a notable number of stocks hitting historical highs [1]. Factors Supporting Banking Sector Growth - Financial analysts believe that the uncertain external environment and low inflation will lead to continued loose domestic monetary policy, which aims to lower real interest rates and support the real economy [2]. - As risk-free yields decline, the stable dividend value of bank stocks remains attractive [2]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, are expected to flow into the stable, high-dividend banking sector due to policy guidance and asset scarcity [2]. - Public fund reforms may also prompt some products to consider increasing allocations to bank stocks, which have historically been underweighted [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in resilient companies that can adapt to market fluctuations rather than attempting to predict policy changes or market movements [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Since the introduction of the reciprocal tariff policy in April, global markets have experienced significant volatility, with the S&P 500 index dropping approximately 20% from its peak before recovering most of the losses, resulting in positive returns year-to-date [1]. - Investment experts like Chris Davis and Bill Miller advocate for a long-term investment approach, focusing on companies with strong adaptability to navigate market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2: Characteristics of Great Companies - Great companies that can weather economic cycles typically exhibit three key traits: 1. A management team with a genuine long-term vision, as exemplified by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, who fostered a culture of continuous innovation [3]. 2. Strong adaptability to changing environments, allowing companies to adjust proactively rather than reactively, which is a significant advantage of stocks over bonds [4]. 3. Valuation based on free cash flow, with a focus on future growth potential rather than just current earnings, to avoid "value traps" [5]. Group 3: Investor Psychology and Cash Risks - Investors often face psychological challenges during market downturns, where fear can lead to poor decision-making. Effective communication from investment advisors can help clients maintain a long-term perspective [5]. - The article highlights the risk of holding cash, noting that the purchasing power of the dollar has decreased by 89% since the author's birth, suggesting that cash may not be a safe haven but rather a hidden risk [6].

以伊战争升级，全球金融市场笼罩在悲观情绪之中。然而，在投资中，悲观者永远正确，只有乐观者才 能赢得未来。 事实上，悲观主义往往更能引起关注，因为悲观主义显得更有新意，只要看到最近发生的事情，悲观主义 就有说服力；乐观主义却需要回顾漫长的历史和事物发展的进程，而人们总是会忘记这些事，并需要花很 大的力气才能将分散的事实联系起来。 回顾过去一个世纪，股市就是一个披着股市外衣、年化息票率为12%的债券，它比任何其他大类资 产都能产生更多的回报。但股市的特性是波动性，当股市走势连续疲弱之时，人们往往会忘记股市 的长期高收益特征。 《金钱心理学》的作者摩根·豪泽尔说，悲观主义比乐观主义更容易出现，还有一些其他的原因： 第一个原因是，金钱在生活中无处不在，所以金融领域的消极事件往往会影响到每一个人，吸引每 一个人的注意。在1929年美国发生大萧条股市崩盘之前，尽管只有2.5%的美国人持有股票，但绝 大多数美国人——甚至可以说全世界都在惊愕地旁观这次崩盘过程，心想着这对自己生活意味着什 么。 "因为其他人也都密切关注着市场，并将其看作自己个人命运的参照物，他们也很快停止了大部分经 济活动，人们感到自己脚下的地面正在崩塌。" ...

机构分析认为，后市指数下跌风险或相对可控，创业板指数反弹潜力较大。 从配置角度看，中报季即将到来，中报业绩好且估值相对合理，或持仓出清较彻底的一些行 业可关注；中期看，A股仍将沿着中国制造主线演绎，看好科技成长、新消费等方向。 影响后市投资事件 跨境支付通于6月22日上线运行 6月22日，在中国人民银行和香港金融管理局共同推动下，跨境支付通正式上线，标志着内地 与香港快速支付系统已实现互联互通，今后两地居民可实时办理跨境汇款。当日，全国首笔跨 境支付通内地居民南向、港人北向汇款业务落地深圳。 全国一般公共预算支出持续增长 财政部网站6月20日发布的2025年1月至5月财政收支情况显示，1月至5月，全国一般公共预 算收入96623亿元，同比下降0.3%；全国一般公共预算支出112953亿元，同比增长4.2%。 证监会同意大商所纯苯期货和期权注册 6月20日，证监会发布通知，同意大商所纯苯期货和期权注册。业内人士表示，作为芳烃产业 链重要原料产品，纯苯期货和期权的上市将进一步丰富化工产业风险管理"工具箱"，对赋能 企业高质量发展、保障产业链安全稳定、提升国际价格影响力具有重要意义。 机构后市投资观点 中信证券：两 ...