以下文章来源于雪豹财经社 ，作者玄介卿 雪豹财经社 . faster , deeper and wiser 来源 | 雪豹财经社 小伙子比跑步速度。老人主观上可以有这个意愿，客观上也可以作出努力（堆配置等），但底 层限制（动力的传动形式、电子元气件的分布架构等），决定了它会在这场比赛里被逐渐甩 开。 5月8日，理想汽车L系列智能焕新版发布；9日，焕新版的全系车型就正式开启了全国交付， 实现了"发布即交付"的节奏。 发新车，就不免联想到销量。 理想今年的销量目标是70万辆，去年是50万辆。有一种观点是，理想今年要多卖20万辆车， 这个目标将异常艰难。原因在于，理想规划的新车型仅有下半年才发布的i8和i6，其他均为改 款焕新。冲量的主力，还是在L系列上。而L系列的竞争力正在逐渐被瓦解，经历了不同程度 的下滑。 短期视角或许没错。但今年能不能到70万辆，从投资视角看，并不是关键问题。对理想的成 长，可以按3年达成70万辆销量进行底线估值。 为什么2027年达成70万销量是一个底线估值？这里涉及由股价、预期PE、车辆销售均价、净 利润率等多个基本面指标搭建的评估模型，不在本篇文章展开。 简单说我的结论：只要理想汽车能 ...

整理 | 美股研究社 在这个快速变化的时代，人工智能技术正以前所未有的速度发展，带来了广泛的机会 。《AI日报 》 致力于挖掘和分析最新的AI概念股公司和市场趋势，为您提供深度的行业 洞察和价值 分析。 A I 快 报 1. 近期，日本经济新闻（NIKKEI）提到阿里通义千问大模型已成日本AI开发基础。 在日经新闻评测 的AI模型综合排名中，通义千问Qwen2.5-Max排名第六，超越了DeepSeek-V3和OpenAI o3-mini 等大模型。据了解，日本大量新兴企业正在基于千问开发企业大模型。 2.据新加坡《联合早报》网站5月9日报道，美国政府对英伟达的H20人工智能（AI）芯片实施出口限 制约一个月后，据报英伟达计划在未来两个月内，为中国市场推出降级版的H20。 路透社5月9日引 述三名消息人士的话报道称，英伟达已通知其主要中国客户，包括云计算领域的巨头公司，称计划在 7月推出修改版H20芯片。知情人士称，与原版H20相比，这些规格将使芯片性能显著降级，包括大 幅降低内存容量。 3. 一年多以来，谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.（GOOGL）的股东们一直担心人工智能会给公司"赚钱机 器"般的搜索 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the recent Federal Reserve meeting, where it was decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, primarily due to the unclear impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy and a stable job market. The market anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year. Additionally, it highlights three dividend-paying companies for further investor research [5]. Group 1: Tenaris SA - Tenaris SA, a Luxembourg energy company, will distribute a dividend of $1.12 per share to shareholders registered by May 20 [7]. - The company has consistently increased its dividend since 2020, indicating potential for future dividend growth [9]. - Tenaris SA has a solid financial position, supporting its ability to maintain ongoing dividend payments [11]. Group 2: Artisan Partners Asset Management - Artisan Partners Asset Management has a dividend yield of approximately 8%, with its stock price showing signs of recovery [14]. - The ex-dividend date is May 16, with the payment date on May 21, aligning with Tenaris SA [14]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 80.33%, with an annualized dividend amount of $3.22 per share, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [15]. Group 3: Universal Insurance Holdings - Universal Insurance Holdings has an ex-dividend date of May 9 and will pay dividends on May 16, demonstrating a history of stable dividend payments [18]. - The company's fundamentals are strong, and valuation models suggest a fair value increase of over 20% [21]. - The stock price is projected to test $51, indicating long-term potential for investors [17].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir has reported impressive quarterly earnings but has not seen a corresponding increase in stock price, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts despite its recent rise in market capitalization to become one of the top ten most valuable tech companies globally [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Palantir's revenue surged to $884 million, exceeding expectations, with U.S. commercial revenue growing by 71% year-over-year [3]. - The company's market capitalization is currently over $280 billion, placing it just above Salesforce [3]. - The "40 Rule" score for Palantir has increased to 83%, reflecting significant revenue growth of 55% year-over-year in the U.S. [9]. Valuation Concerns - Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio has risen to over 71 times expected revenue, highlighting a significant valuation discrepancy compared to peers like Snowflake and CrowdStrike [5]. - The stock's recent performance has formed a double top pattern, suggesting a potential bearish reversal and indicating that investors may need to see substantial price increases to achieve positive returns [7][13]. - The expected market cap for Palantir in 2027, based on projected revenue, could be around $86 billion, translating to a stock price of approximately $31, which is lower than current valuations [12]. Stock Dilution Issues - The diluted share count has increased from 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion shares, contributing to the high valuation and posing challenges for shareholders who have already paid a premium [7]. - The significant stock-based compensation (SBC) is a concern, as it can distort financial metrics and affect the perceived financial health of the company [9]. Market Position - Palantir's valuation appears inflated compared to its growth rate, which has led to its recent ranking among the top ten tech companies [13]. - The company is facing a high downside risk of 50% to 70%, similar to the situation experienced by Snowflake in the past [13].

作者 | Steven Fiorillo 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) 的价值被严重低估了。 Meta的股价在全年持续创下新高，直至4月市 场 迅速下跌。 Meta的股价最高达到 740.91 美元，在 2 个月的时间内下跌 -34.59% 至 484.66 美 元，没有任何证据表明其营收和利润会受到影响。分析师认为它的股价现在深受打击。 面对经济不确定性， Meta 在其第一季度收益报告中打破了普遍预期，其第一季度收入和净收入 分别同比增长 16.07% 和 34.56%。 META 第一季度营收 423.1 亿美元，比市场普遍预期高出 9.5258 亿美元；每股收益 6.43 美元，比华尔街预期高出 1.22 美元。 Meta的股价本应上涨至新 高，但目前仍徘徊在 600 美元以下，较历史高点下跌逾 20%。随着时间推移以及 Meta人工智能 故事的展开，其估值将会上升，因为关键的商业机会将开始被纳入新的估值中。 从2月份起， Meta股价与标准普尔 500 指数相比下跌了 -14.94%，下跌了 -7.43%。以 2025 年收 益的 27.55 倍进行交易，并且从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, faces a challenging "lose-lose" situation due to the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation, compounded by the tariff policies of the Trump administration [1][5][6]. Policy Dilemma - The tariff policies exert downward pressure on economic growth while posing upward risks to inflation, severely constraining the Federal Reserve's policy options [5][6]. - Dan North emphasizes that Powell's best course of action is to do nothing, as any decision made now could be wrong due to the high uncertainty in the current policy environment [6]. Historical Context - Historical precedents show that Federal Reserve leaders have often been criticized for their hesitance in adjusting interest rates, leading to missed opportunities to act before economic downturns [3][9]. - The tendency to wait for overwhelming data before taking action has been a consistent pattern, resulting in delayed responses to economic shifts [3][11]. Labor Market Signals - The labor market is often the last to signal an impending recession, which suggests that the Federal Reserve's reliance on labor market indicators may lead to delayed policy adjustments [11]. - Powell's previous reluctance to raise interest rates in response to rising inflation in 2021 exemplifies the risks of acting too late, as the Fed is still struggling to bring inflation back to the 2% target [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 34% since April 6, despite the announcement of needing a license to export its H20 GPU to China, indicating strong market confidence in the company's valuation and future performance [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a strong buy rating for Nvidia, expecting the company's performance at the end of the month to exceed that of the first quarter, despite some export challenges related to the H20 GPU [3]. - Following the 8-K report, Nvidia's stock experienced a 7% sell-off, but analysts remain unperturbed, viewing the stock as undervalued compared to its historical performance and peers like AMD [1][3]. - Since the announcement on April 15, Nvidia's stock has risen by 5% [7]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Market Dynamics - Analysts estimate that selling 1 million H20 GPUs in 2024 could generate $12 billion in revenue, which may contribute to a decline in overall profit margins since the second quarter of 2024 [4]. - Major Chinese clients, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, ordered over $16 billion worth of H20 chips in the first three months of the year, indicating strong demand [8]. - Nvidia's stock remains lower than its peers in most valuation ratios, suggesting potential for future appreciation as the market recognizes this undervaluation by 2025 [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Competitive Landscape - The recent withdrawal of AI diffusion rules by the Trump administration has introduced uncertainty for the U.S. semiconductor industry, potentially benefiting Nvidia [8]. - Nvidia's ability to adapt to export regulations is demonstrated by the development of new chips (H20, L20, and L2) that comply with these regulations, with a planned release in early 2024 [3]. - The pricing of the H20 chip is reported to be over 10% cheaper than Huawei's Ascend 910B, which may impact profit margins [3].

标普500指数自4月低点已反弹18%，眼看就要进入技术性牛市。 高盛交易员指出市场经历了一场轮回：年初的乐观情绪在三四月被恐慌取代，但如今股指又 回到了原点。这轮过山车行情中，真正的赢家只有散户——他们成了唯一的"逢低买入"主力 军。 但高盛发出 警告， 美国经济衰退风险正在逼近。而 衰退一旦发生，可能会迫使美联储从当 前水平下调利率多达200个基点。 从短期来看，美股仍面临"下行风险不对称"的局面。 接下来如何进行投资布局对冲风险？ 每一个细微的市场信息都能成为决胜的关键！ 除了必须要看的美股研究社外， 这几个硬核账号也可以赶紧关注起来： 老徐聊海外 十年美股期权玩家，从财报套利到组合风控，只讲能落地的实战策略： 各类套利、波动率交易等策 略拆解，期权链深度分析，以及美股中线交易。 每周实盘复盘 + 干货输出，适合想系统学美股和期 权的投资者。 周期雪爷 点击名片关注啦 对于短线情绪流和主升感兴趣，想精准踏准柿场节奏的可以关注"周期雪爷"。一位职业女选手，擅长情 绪和趋势周期。对大A短线和主升方面有一定深入研究。 价投老鬼 关注价值投资的朋友可以关注。不追涨杀跌，专注企业价值与长期福利。作者曾亲历多次财富大 ...

作者 |Gary-alexander 我在今年2月就对Match集团（NASDAQ: MTCH）发出过看空预警，当时其股价还徘徊在33美元左右。此后该股持续走低，估值倍数倒是随之 改善。值得关注的是，新任CEO斯宾塞·拉斯科夫（互联网行业资深高管，曾任Zillow CEO、Hotwire创始人）正大刀阔斧推进改革，包括裁员 13%的大动作。虽然这些节流措施算得上利好，但付费用户大规模流失的残酷现实仍难以忽视。基于此，我维持对该股的"卖出"评级。 在我看来，问题的核心在于Match集团很可能继续让市场失望。需要提醒的是，该公司在2024年12月的投资者日上曾公布三年增长计划，提出到 2025财年实现4%-6%的年均复合收入增长率，并将调整后运营利润率目标定在39%。但现实情况是...... 在经济下行周期中，消费者对付费产品本就已产生抵触情绪，Match集团实现长期增长目标的难度进一步加大。需要指出的是，该公司4-6%的复 合年增长率目标，建立在Tinder恢复至个位数低段增长（1-3%）、Hinge实现约20%复合年增长率的基础之上。 但公司一季度在这两项指标上均未能达标，而Tinder的运营利润率下降，表明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is creating extensive opportunities in various sectors, particularly in AI concept stocks and market trends [1]. Group 1: AI Technology Developments - Quark is set to launch "Deep Search Pro," which aims to tackle complex tasks in professional fields, comparable to top global products like DeepResearch [3]. - NVIDIA plans to introduce a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip in China within two months to comply with new U.S. export control measures, which will significantly reduce the chip's performance [3]. - SambaNova Systems announced a layoff of 77 employees, about 15% of its workforce, as it shifts focus from AI training to AI inference [4]. - Elon Musk's xAI has fully operationalized its Memphis supercluster, which will draw 150 megawatts of power from local sources and utilize Tesla Megapack batteries for backup [4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Trends - CITIC Securities highlights opportunities in the media sector related to AI and IP, emphasizing favorable policy environments, technological transformations, and positive earnings expectations as key drivers for valuation increases [6]. - Bill Gates announced plans to donate 99% of his remaining wealth, valued at approximately $107 billion, to the Gates Foundation, which is set to close in 2045 [8]. - Google rebounded in stock price after refuting concerns raised by Apple executives regarding declining search volumes, asserting that overall query volume continues to grow [9]. Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Apple is reportedly developing chips for wearable technology, including smart glasses and AI servers, with production expected to begin by late 2026 or 2027 [10]. - Apple is exploring the addition of AI search options in its Safari browser, with potential candidates being Perplexity AI and Anthropic's Claude chatbot [11].