Core Viewpoint - The future performance of Nvidia may be significantly impacted by its past performance, despite impressive historical results [1][3]. Financial Performance - Nvidia's revenue is projected to grow from $16.6 billion in 2021 to $130.5 billion by fiscal year 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) increasing from $0.17 to $2.94 during the same period [6]. - In Q1 2026, Nvidia's data center revenue reached $39.1 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase [6]. - Analysts expect Nvidia's EPS to grow by 43% in fiscal year 2026 and by 34% in fiscal year 2027 [7]. Market Position and Competition - Nvidia's high market valuation, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio potentially reaching 50, may not be a concern given its strong market position and expected profit growth [9]. - Google poses a significant risk to Nvidia's market dominance, particularly with the introduction of Google Cloud TPU, which could attract clients like OpenAI [11][12]. - Google Cloud TPU offers a seamless, one-stop solution for AI workloads, which may be more appealing to clients compared to Nvidia's offerings [13]. Revenue and Growth Projections - Nvidia's revenue for Q2 2026 is expected to be $45 billion, reflecting a 50% increase from $30 billion in Q2 2025, marking the lowest growth rate since Q2 2024 [16]. - Future revenue growth rates for Nvidia may decline to between 15% and 20% due to increasing competition and changing market dynamics [17]. Profitability and Margins - In Q1 2026, Nvidia's gross margin fell to 60.5%, with EPS at $0.76, significantly lower than the previous quarter [18]. - The company faces pressure on profit margins due to one-time costs and export restrictions, which have impacted revenue [19]. Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that investors should gradually divest from Nvidia and consider alternatives, with Google being highlighted as a strong option [19].

作 者 | Michael Del Monte 编译 | 华尔街大事件 相信 Cloudflare Workers 能够在未来几个季度推动显著增长，尤其是在企业寻求在其环境中利 用 AI 代理的情况下。Cloudflare 的安全平台可能会成为 AI 代理普及的驱动力，因为随着更复 杂流程的自动化，恶意 AI 代理的风险可能会增加。本质上，AI 代理是作为企业 用户 开发的， 为自主应用程序提供对内部数据的访问权限以执行其工作负载。如果没有得到适当的保护，这可 能会增加违规风险。例如，一些银行正在部署 AI 代理作为 数字工作者 ，它们将像普通员工一样 工作。这些数字工作者将能够通过电子邮件帐户和微软Teams 等应用程序进行通信。这还将涉及 登录，并且可能不可避免地会访问关键数据。 近期有一个重大动态：Cloudflare 宣布将成为首家阻止人工智能爬虫在未经许可或未支付报酬 的情况下访问内容的互联网基础设施提供商。尽管此举旨在惠及内容创作者，但部分原因也是为 了给客户提供一项新服务，从而使自身受益。 财务方面，分析师预测Cloudflare的净营收将达到5.01亿美元，调整后每 股收益为0.18美元。 预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for June, highlighting expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy [4][5][6]. Economic Indicators - Economists predict an increase of 110,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, a decrease from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [4]. - Year-over-year wage growth is anticipated to remain steady at 3.9%, while month-over-month growth is expected to slow from 0.4% in May to 0.3% [4]. Labor Market Trends - There are signs of a cooling labor market, with a notable increase in continuing unemployment claims, reaching nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [9]. - The ADP report indicates a surprising reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023 [9]. Unemployment Rate Predictions - There is a divergence among economists regarding the unemployment rate, with some predicting it could rise to 4.4% due to weak job growth and challenges in the summer hiring season for college graduates [10]. - Factors such as immigration policies and labor force participation rates are influencing unemployment metrics, with some analysts suggesting that the actual unemployment rate could be higher if not for a decline in labor force participation [10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Economists are closely monitoring various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, for signs of employment trends [12]. - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [12]. Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has recently reached new highs, driven by investor optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts and trade agreements [15]. - A disappointing jobs report could trigger a sell-off in the stock market, with predictions that a non-farm payroll figure below 100,000 or an unemployment rate of 4.4% could lead to at least a 1% decline in stocks [15]. Gold Market Outlook - The article suggests that if the non-farm payroll data is below expectations, it could lead to a new round of dollar selling and increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which would be bullish for gold prices [16]. - Conversely, better-than-expected employment data could alleviate concerns about the labor market and delay expectations for aggressive Fed easing, potentially putting downward pressure on gold [17].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has disrupted the previously stable market dynamics among major tech companies, forcing them to reassess their strategies and compete directly with one another [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - For the past 20 years, major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Apple have operated within their own niches without direct competition [1]. - The introduction of AI has led to a shift where companies are now focused on expansion, resulting in overlapping interests and direct conflicts [1][2]. - Apple's potential partnership with OpenAI poses a direct threat to Google's dominance in the search engine market, as Apple may abandon Google in favor of OpenAI's technology [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Google's stronghold in the information flow sector is at risk if Apple collaborates with OpenAI, which could lead to significant financial losses for Google [2][3]. - Microsoft, despite lacking its own AI, has successfully partnered with OpenAI, providing it with opportunities for product integration and market expansion [2][3]. - Apple's desire to incorporate AI into its products has created a competitive environment where Microsoft and OpenAI must respond to Apple's demands [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Apple is leveraging its vast user base to negotiate favorable terms with AI partners, positioning itself as a key player in the AI landscape [3][4]. - The stock performance of tech companies reflects the shifting dynamics, with Microsoft seeing gains while Google and Apple lag behind [4]. - The current market evaluation may be premature, as no comprehensive agreements have been finalized, and Apple's role remains pivotal [5][7]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Apple's integration of AI is expected to be selective, maintaining its proprietary technology while incorporating third-party solutions like ChatGPT [5][6]. - The potential for Apple to establish equal partnerships with OpenAI could threaten Microsoft's influence, as OpenAI is not solely owned by Microsoft [7]. - The tech industry is likely to experience ongoing conflicts, collaborations, and market redistributions as companies adapt to the evolving landscape of AI [7][8].

整理 | 美股研究社 截至 6 月底，英伟达市值达到 3.86 万亿美元 （IT之家注：现汇率约合 27.65 万亿元人民币）， 超过微软的 3.69 万亿美元（现汇率约合 26.43 万亿元人民币）约 4.3%。 不过，英伟达市值仍未突破 苹果 2024 年 12 月创下的约 3.92 万亿美元 历史高点。苹果以 3.1 万亿美元市值位居上月底第三。 Meta 平台、博通和亚马逊的市值上个月 分别上涨 14%、13.9% 和 7% ，达到 1.86 万亿美元、 1.3 万亿美元和 2.33 万亿美元。特斯拉市值则下跌 8.3%，至 1.02 万亿美元，马斯克与白宫的 争执成为主因。 Wedbush 证券分析师丹尼尔・艾夫斯表示，"我们预计英伟达和微软今年夏天将迈入 4 万亿美 元 （现汇率约合 28.65 万亿元人民币） 市值俱乐部 ，未来 18 个月市场焦点将转向 5 万亿美元 市值…… 这轮由人工智能革命推动的科技牛市仍处于初期阶段。" 在这个快速变化的时代，人工智能技术正以前所未有的速度发展，带来了广泛的机会 。 《AI日 报 》致力于挖掘和分析最新的AI概念股公司和市场趋势，为您提供深度的行 业 洞 ...

字母榜 . 让未来不止于大 来源 | 字母榜 小米YU7发售后的汹涌订单，给了所有车企一个大大的震撼。 6月26日，小米YU7正式开售，售价25.35万元起，3分钟大定突破20万辆，1小时大定突破 28.9万辆，18小时锁单量突破24万台。这一成绩不仅远超小米SU7同期表现，也创下了新能源 汽车销售的新纪录。 小米YU7的冲击波，开始快速向外扩散。 6月27日，理想汽车发布内部公告，宣布组织架构调整：原"研发与供应群组"和"销售与服务 群组"整合并入新成立的"智能汽车群组"，对理想汽车智能汽车业务的战略到经营闭环负责； 总裁马东辉将担任智能汽车群组的负责人，向董事长兼CEO李想汇报。 李想在内部信中称，智能汽车群组成立后，将通过研发、供应、销售、服务的端到端经营与 深度协同，更有力地支撑面向用户的价值创造、价值传递与经营闭环，为理想汽车构筑面向 下一个阶段的领先优势。 以下文章来源于字母榜 ，作者于潇 将研发、供应、销售、服务整合到一个板块，并统一交给马东辉负责，显然是为了打好接下 来的纯电SUV硬仗。 工作日，小米汽车门店的进店客流络绎不绝。图源：字母榜 下半年，理想即将推出两款纯电SUV i8和i6。这两 ...

作 者 | Noah's Arc Capital Management 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Palantir 科技公司（纳斯达克代码：PLTR）开发的大数据分析软件平台，能帮助 美国 政府和企 业做一些棘手的决策。它的产品有 Palantir Gotham 和 Foundry，能为安全机构以及金融、制 药等行业的商业客户整合和分析敏感信息。Gotham主要用于情报机构和军方打击恐怖主义，而 Foundry则帮助企业进行数据处理。该公司正乘着人工智能的浪潮。 Palantir目前估值过高，尤其是考虑到市销率 (P/S)。Palantir 的市销率为 110.30 。作为参考， 高增长股票的市销率应在 10 到 20 之间。 => 100 相当不常见，表明估值过高。 该股从2024年的12.45美元上涨至2025年6月的140美元。市销率（FWD）从13升至79.20，证 明股价涨幅远超市销率，因此以目前的增长数据来看，估值过高。即使在如此高速的增长之后， Palantir也必须实现销售额的指数级增长，才能维持目前的估值。 报告的 经营现金流： 13.35亿美元。 - 减去以股份为基础的支付（SBC）：7.2 ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 下半年的首个交易日，美股风格大变脸，投资者从上半年表现强劲的科技股向医疗保健等防御性 板块轮换。 市场正在期待美国与其贸易伙伴之间达成协议，因为特朗普对最高关税的90天暂缓期将于下周到 期。特朗普周二晚些时候表示"不考虑延长7月9日后的关税暂停期"，这一消息拖累所有主要指数 走低。 此外据高盛交易部门的观察，市场轮动主要受第三季度开始后资金重新布局、鲍威尔最新讲话以 及投资者在就业数据发布前获利了结等因素驱动。 科 技 巨 头 遭 抛 售 A I 交 易 遇 冷 在过去两个月，投资者热衷于追逐具有强劲增长动力的人工智能和科技股。 周二，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨400点，而纳斯达克综合指数重挫0.82%，年内涨幅领先的科技巨 头跌幅领先。美国科技股七巨头指数跌1.15%，Sea Limited、Spotify、Roblox、英伟达、博通、 AMD、Netflix和Meta等上半年"大赢家们"均出现显著下跌。 交易数据显示， 这是自今年1月DeepSeek冲击以来最大规模的动量股平仓，AI相关交易遭遇大幅 抛售，而此前表现落后的关税受损股和房地产股则大幅上涨。 美联储主席鲍威尔在葡萄牙欧洲央行 ...

虽然 Waymo 现在可能 深陷亏损 ，但到 2040 年，其估值有可能达到 5000 亿美元（或更 高）。 当然，如果情况不太好，估值跌很多也有可能。毕竟 在新兴市场中运营，竞争日益激 烈，甚至存在像特斯拉这样的潜在主导者，这造成了巨大的长期市场不确定性，这是必然趋势。 鉴于此，如果您正在考虑投资谷歌，不要指望 Waymo 会很快改变该公司的股票总回报率，但在 未来，Waymo 可能会带来巨大的回报 。 作 者丨Bay Area Ideas 编译 | 华尔街大事件 谷歌( NASDAQ: GOOG ) ( NASDAQ: GOOGL ) 那种暴涨的日子好像已经过 去了， 但除了人工 智能，Waymo 或许是长期来看最有上涨潜力的。 根据计算，在中期（2030 年）牛市情况下，Waymo 的估值有望达到 2000 亿美元。这将是该公 司 2030 年近 4 万亿美元市值的 5%。谷歌目前的市值约为 2.15 万亿美元。到 2040 年，分析师 认为 Waymo 最终可能会占到 谷歌 总估值的 10% 左右（或更多）。 Waymo 采用的是激光雷达、雷达、摄像头和高清地图相结合的技术路线，可靠性确实不错，但 特 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meta's stock is considered a buy due to its significant investments in artificial intelligence, with a notable increase in stock price over the past month and year [1][10]. Investment Strategy - Meta is committing "tens of billions" to AI infrastructure, with an impressive capital expenditure plan of $60 billion to $72 billion for data centers and hardware in 2025 [1]. - The company is building a "superintelligence" team to enhance its AI capabilities, indicating a serious effort to compete with OpenAI and Google DeepMind [2][4]. Competitive Landscape - Meta's open science approach, including the open-sourcing of models like LLaMA, aims to build a good reputation and drive developer adoption [2]. - The recent price cuts by OpenAI and advancements by Google and Anthropic highlight the competitive pressures in the AI space, making Meta's strategy crucial for maintaining its AI advantage [3]. Talent Acquisition - Meta's acquisition of a 49% stake in Scale AI for $14.3 billion and the recruitment of key executives like Alexander Wang are seen as significant catalysts for its AI ambitions [4][5]. - The company is actively recruiting top AI researchers, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing its talent pool [6][9]. Financial Metrics - Meta's expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share over the next five years is approximately 16.77%, significantly higher than the industry median of 11.26% [7]. - The company's projected non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio relative to growth is 1.71, slightly above the industry median of 1.44, suggesting that its growth justifies its valuation [7]. Future Outlook - If Meta's AI research is successful, the premium on its valuation could further increase [8]. - Analysts express strong confidence in Meta's ability to navigate the AI landscape, drawing parallels to its past successes in overcoming competitive threats [10].