在宏观层面，达里奥近几个月的核心判断并没有发生根本变化。作为 "债务周期"理论的坚定信奉 者，他反复强调，美国经济正同时面临高债务、高利率与地缘政治不确定性叠加的复杂环境。在他 的框架里，这种组合在历史上往往对应着较低的长期回报率，甚至可能引发货币贬值和购买力下 降。他对"美国例外论"的警惕，也明显高于市场平均水平。 过去几个月，全球投资界的目光再次聚焦在雷 ·达里奥（Ray Dalio）身上。作为桥水基金 （Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，他的每一次公开表态都被视为宏观风向标。然而，这一 次，市场捕捉到了一种微妙的张力。 一方面，在媒体访谈和公开信中，达里奥不断提醒市场警惕美国债务问题的恶化、财政赤字的不可 持续性，以及长期货币体系面临的结构性压力。他的言辞恳切，甚至带着一丝预警的紧迫感，仿佛 在暗示风暴将至。 另一方面，桥水基金最新披露的 13F 文件却展示了另一番景象： 其在多个关键科技股上的配置正 在显著加码，尤其集中在 AI 与高端制造链条。 如果只看言论，达里奥似乎对美股保持高度克制； 但如果只看仓位，桥水却像是在为一轮结构性科技行情下重注。 这种 "口嫌体正直"的现象，让 ...

如果把时间拨回一年前，华尔街几乎形成了共识：只要是AI相关的资本支出，规模越大、投入 越激进，未来的护城河就越深。彼时的逻辑很简单——算力决定上限，模型决定胜负，而现金 流只是暂时性的牺牲。 但进入2026年，这套逻辑正在被市场亲手拆解。 亚马逊正式跌入熊市区间，微软成为Mag7中最早确认熊市的一员，Meta距离20%的技术性熊 市只剩一步之遥；与此同时，Alphabet的跌幅明显受控，英伟达则被推到了所有交易的"风暴 眼"。 这并不是一轮普通的科技股回调，而是一次 AI投资逻辑的阶段性结算 ： 市场第一次开始系统 性地追问——这些前所未有的AI资本支出，究竟能不能转化为可验证的回报。 七大巨头不再同涨同跌，正是这个问题被摆上台面的直接结果。 分化的起点：当AI资本 支出开始侵蚀现金流安全垫 真正的分水岭：不是投不投AI， 而是AI能否被"内部消化" 表面上看，最近一轮抛售似乎是情绪主导，但真正让市场产生分歧的，是 AI支出对财务结构的 冲击已经变得不可忽视 。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 以亚马逊为例。2026年高达2000亿美元的资本支出计划，在两年前会被视为"云计算+AI长期 护城河"的加码，如 ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase's recent quarterly report shows no positive aspects from a fundamental perspective, with declining trading volumes and income under pressure, indicating a highly sensitive business to digital asset prices and retail sentiment [1][16] Group 1: Market Reaction - Despite the disappointing earnings report, Coinbase's stock price rose unexpectedly, as some investors chose to buy at lower prices, indicating that the "failed report" did not trigger new panic [2][22] - The key issue is that when bad news no longer drives prices down, market focus shifts from whether fundamentals will worsen to whether the worst-case scenario has already been fully priced in [2][6] Group 2: Pre-report Dynamics - The decline in Coinbase's stock price occurred prior to the earnings report, as the volatility of Bitcoin and major crypto assets decreased, leading to reduced retail trading activity and lowered profit expectations for crypto exchanges [4][6] - The "weakness" presented in the earnings report was not a sudden event but rather a process that had been repeatedly discussed and priced in [6][7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The rebound in Coinbase's stock is not due to an improvement in fundamentals but rather a reflection of a market that has already priced in the worst expectations [16][22] - The current market sentiment indicates that the most aggressive pessimistic pricing phase may have passed, with Coinbase entering a bottoming phase characterized by a tug-of-war for new catalysts [17][19] Group 4: Trading Behavior - The recent rebound is driven by a change in funding logic, where the market has shifted from trend trading to position-based speculation, with a significant reduction in overall market positions and a defensive sentiment [10][12] - The remaining selling pressure decreases significantly after large-scale liquidation, allowing for a potential price stabilization as some investors perceive an improved risk-reward ratio [11][12] Group 5: Conclusion - The rebound does not signify a fundamental improvement but rather a calm confirmation of reality, where the market acknowledges that the pressures have been absorbed and traded repeatedly [21][22] - This phenomenon is not unique to Coinbase, as similar patterns can be observed in other high-volatility, cyclical industries, indicating a shift from one-sided sentiment to rational pricing [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus in the capital markets has shifted to the understanding that while AI continues to evolve rapidly, the methods of betting on AI are becoming systematically ineffective [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index experienced its worst weekly performance since November, stabilizing only after mild inflation data was released [2]. - The recent market volatility is not driven by macroeconomic data changes but by a deeper fear that AI is transitioning from a growth engine to a risk amplifier for assets [2]. Group 2: Impact on Valuation - The emergence of AI is not a signal of its failure but a necessary evolution of investment logic [3]. - AI's impact is causing a decline in the marginal value of labor, affecting industries heavily reliant on high-skilled white-collar workers, leading to a revaluation of profit margins in sectors like software and financial services [7]. - The recent sell-off has primarily affected light-asset industries, where profit margins have been recalibrated due to AI's influence [7]. Group 3: Shifts in Investment Preferences - As AI disrupts high-paying white-collar jobs, sectors like energy, essential consumer goods, and U.S. Treasuries are emerging as new safe havens for capital [8]. - This shift is not merely a style rotation but a re-evaluation of "irreplaceability," with energy becoming more akin to a public good due to increased demand from data centers [8]. - Essential consumer goods are gaining strength as they remain stable in demand despite AI advancements, providing defensive value in uncertain times [8]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - The investment landscape in 2026 will not be about abandoning AI but rather about identifying asset forms that are least likely to encounter issues during AI's expansion [10]. - The focus will shift from companies that merely tell the best AI stories to those whose demand remains intact or grows passively, even with widespread AI adoption [10]. - Industries that are capital-intensive, resource-constrained, or have physical or regulatory barriers are re-entering the core asset category, while those relying on human premiums and complex processes face stricter scrutiny [10]. Group 5: Conclusion on AI's Role - The key takeaway for investors is not whether AI will continue to develop, but how it is differentiating the risk attributes of assets [12]. - AI is still a crucial long-term variable, but it no longer guarantees high valuations or returns, as it can create both winners and losers [12].

Group 1 - The article highlights key trading events to watch for in the upcoming week, particularly focusing on the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday on the consumer sector [2] - Notable companies affected by the holiday include Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO), Trip.com Group (TCOM), Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD), Pinduoduo (PDD), and Yum China (YUMC) [2] - The New York Consumer Analyst Group Conference will take place in Orlando, featuring major companies such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), General Mills (GIS), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Philip Morris International (PM), and Celsius Holdings (CELH) [2] Group 2 - On February 17, significant earnings reports are expected from companies like Medtronic (MDT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Energy Transfer (ET), and Devon Energy (DVN) [4] - The article notes that options trading indicates potential double-digit stock price fluctuations for Fluor Corporation (FLR) and Rush Street Interactive (RSI) following their earnings reports [4] - Companies entering ex-dividend dates next week include Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Hasbro (HAS), and Microsoft (MSFT) [4] Group 3 - On February 18, earnings reports are anticipated from Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Moody's (MCO), DoorDash (DASH), Blue Owl (OBDC), and Royal Gold (RGLD) [10] - Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) will hold an analyst day in Boston to discuss company strategy, growth opportunities, product technology advantages, and financial goals [10] - The article mentions that Noodles & Company (NDLS) will officially implement a 1-for-8 reverse stock split [11] Group 4 - On February 19, earnings reports are expected from Walmart (WMT), Deere & Company (DE), Newmont Corporation (NEM), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Dropbox (DBX), and Consolidated Edison (ED) [15] - A10 Networks (ATEN) will host an investor day in San Francisco to present its long-term growth framework in traditional and next-generation networking and security [15] - Meta Platforms (META) will have its Chief AI Officer, Alexandr Wang, speak at the AI Impact Summit in India [15] Group 5 - On February 20, the core PCE price index for January is set to be released, with economists expecting a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [20] - The article notes that the March WTI crude oil futures will expire, which typically leads to additional volatility on the expiration date [18] - The Dallas Federal Reserve President, Raphael Bostic, will deliver opening remarks at the Banking Industry Outlook Conference [19]

来源 | 华尔街见闻 亚马逊股价九连跌， 创下了近20年来最长的连跌纪录。 继周四进入技术性熊市，成为Mag7中第二家跌入熊市的公司后， 亚马逊股价 周五继续下挫。 投资者对科技巨头激进的人工智能支出计划发起强烈抵制，导致这些明星股票大幅下挫。 投资者在Mag 7内部轮动，自由现金流压力凸显 Apex Fintech Solutions风险副总裁Mike Treacy表示，近期抛售凸显出Mag7成员之间日益扩大的分化。 自去年秋季以来，投资者已从与微软、英伟达和甲骨文相关的OpenAI交易中撤出，转而青睐Alphabet和博通生态系统。 Treacy指出，Alphabet垂直整合的技术堆栈在一定程度上抵消了过度支出的担忧，使该股免受科技股抛售的最严重冲击。Alphabet股价周 四收盘时较近期高点下跌9.2%。 Treacy表示，谷歌的自给自足能力应该获得相对其他公司的溢价，后者可能受到产业链中某一环节的不利影响。 周五，亚马逊股价收于198.79美元，较近期高点下跌超23%，前一天周四正式跌破熊市门槛。 在四大超大规模云服务商中，亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高，达到2000亿美元。 亚马逊、微软、Meta ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [3] - Baidu App has officially integrated OpenClaw, an AI tool that can be deployed locally or in the cloud, allowing users to manage tasks such as scheduling and document organization [5] - Legal AI startup Legora is in talks for a new funding round that could triple its valuation to $6 billion, indicating strong investor interest in AI applications in the legal sector [6] - Military AI unicorn Shield AI is negotiating a $1 billion funding round at a valuation of approximately $11-12 billion, reflecting increased government defense spending and interest in AI-driven technologies [7] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is intensifying its investigation into Microsoft to determine if the company is illegally monopolizing parts of the enterprise software market through its cloud and AI services [9] - Google has launched a YouTube app for Apple's Vision Pro, allowing users to watch videos in various formats, including 8K resolution, which enhances the user experience on the new device [10] - AWS CEO Matt Garman stated that concerns about AI replacing large software companies are exaggerated, emphasizing the need for innovation among SaaS providers to avoid being disrupted [11]

以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者专注科技产研的 硬AI . AI时代，快人一步~ 来源 | 硬AI 市场押注的核心在于 ， 全球资金正在从"烧钱"的AI先锋，转向具备定价权的硬件与上游供应链，且亚洲在先进芯片制造、代工与组装环节占 据关键位置。 美光关于存储芯片供应趋紧的最新表态，以及英伟达关于支出可持续性的评论，进一步巩固了这种配置逻辑。据彭博援引多位机构人士表 态，随着市场开始定价"AI agents的ChatGPT时刻"， 基础设施需求可能更先兑现到亚洲资产上。 资金从"AI颠覆交易"撤离， 美股承压与亚洲受益同步发生 本轮美股波动的导火索， 是投资者担心AI模型会威胁部分软件、法律以及房地产服务提供商的商业模式 ，相关股票遭遇抛售。彭博称，这 一"AI Scare Trade"还波及美国房地产服务股与保险经纪板块。 与之相对，亚洲市场的科技敞口更多集中在上游环节。宝盛集团香港研究主管Richard Tang表示："美国主要担心的是超大规模企业的支出 问题。亚洲大部分科技敞口在上游。 无论最终谁获胜，上游仍将从下游参与者那里获得收入。" 存储芯片价格上涨强化了硬件端的景气信号，三星等区域龙头从中受益。台积电 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bill Ackman, a well-known hedge fund manager, is betting on Meta's success in the AI race, with his fund Pershing Square establishing a position of approximately $2 billion in Meta, representing 10% of its capital, making it one of the fund's largest holdings [3][4]. Investment in Meta - Pershing Square disclosed this investment during its annual investor meeting, having started building the position in November last year at an average cost of $625 per share [4]. - Concerns over Meta's significant spending in AI led to a 13% decline in its stock price over the past six months, creating an entry opportunity for Pershing Square [5]. - The fund believes that Meta's business model is one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI integration, enhancing content recommendations and personalized advertising capabilities, and potentially opening new opportunities in wearable devices or enterprise AI digital assistants [5]. Other Investments - Pershing Square has also increased its stake in Amazon, citing its dominant position in cloud services and retail e-commerce [6]. - As of the last market close, Meta's stock price was $669, reflecting a 14% increase since Pershing Square's initial investment [7]. Investment Strategy - Ackman is known for a highly concentrated investment style, with Pershing Square holding only 13 stocks as of the end of 2025, including major tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon [11]. - Recently, the fund has exited two long-term positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill and Hilton Worldwide [11]. - Meta has become the fund's third-largest tech stock holding, indicating Ackman's preference for a few high-conviction investments rather than a diversified strategy [12]. Performance and Future Outlook - Pershing Square achieved a return of 20.9% last year, outperforming the S&P 500's total return of 17.9%, with significant contributions from Alphabet, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac [12]. - However, the fund experienced a decline of 2.5% in January of this year [12]. - Since the establishment of the Meta position, the stock has risen by 11%, with an additional 3% increase as of February 9 this year, supporting the overall returns of Pershing Square [13]. - In addition to Meta, the fund made other significant investments in 2025, including $900 million in Howard Hughes Holdings and up to $1 billion in support for the acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings [13]. - Ackman aims to transform Howard Hughes into a diversified holding company similar to Berkshire Hathaway, indicating a shift in investment focus towards deeper corporate value restructuring [13].

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [3] - The AI report aims to uncover and analyze the latest AI concept stocks and market trends, providing in-depth industry insights and value analysis [3] Group 2 - Qianwen reported that in the first six days of its "Spring Festival 3 Billion Free Orders" campaign, users made 4.1 billion requests to "Qianwen help me," resulting in over 120 million AI orders [5] - The data indicates that nearly half of the AI orders came from county-level cities, with 1.56 million users aged 60 and above experiencing food delivery for the first time [5] - National users ordered over 1,000 tons of eggs, more than 2,300 fitness equipment items, and 1,500 books through AI [5] Group 3 - Meituan announced the upgrade of its "Ask Xiaotuan" AI assistant, which will provide local dining and entertainment recommendations during the Spring Festival [6] - Users can access various Spring Festival coupons and receive intelligent recommendations for optimal ordering solutions across multiple scenarios, including takeout and dining [6] Group 4 - Zhiyu's latest flagship model, GLM-5, has significantly outperformed its predecessor GLM-4.7 in programming tasks, with an average improvement of over 20% [8] - GLM-5 can autonomously complete long-term planning and execution, backend reconstruction, and deep debugging tasks with minimal human intervention [8] - The model achieved top performance in several evaluation benchmarks, including BrowseComp and MCP-Atlas [8] Group 5 - Meta Platforms Inc. announced an investment of over $10 billion to build a data center in Lebanon, Indiana, marking one of its largest AI infrastructure investments to date [10] - The data center will cover 4 million square feet and is expected to be operational by the end of 2027 or early 2028, with a power capacity of 1 gigawatt to support AI projects and core social media operations [10] - The construction peak will support over 4,000 workers and create 300 long-term jobs, along with an investment of $120 million to improve local infrastructure [10] Group 6 - Google is integrating AI shopping features into its search engine and Gemini chatbot, allowing consumers to purchase products directly while receiving AI-driven answers [11] - This initiative is part of Google's broader strategy to monetize user interactions with AI [11]