分析师认为没有，因为其 30 倍的远期市盈率看似并无风险，且这一倍数实际上比过去 5 年平 均值低 5%。那微软究竟出了什么问题？ 微软（MSFT）在发布 2026 财年第一季度财报后，股价下跌了 10%。尽管上周市场反弹， 但该公司此次未能跟上上涨步伐。 那么问题来了，微软仍处于 AI 泡沫中吗？ 多数 AI 相关公司（如微软）的走势，在很大程度上受 AI 增长或支出前景的短期情绪推动。 微软 2026 财年第二季度的营收预期与市场预估基本一致，投资者可能认为此后增长会放缓。 但云服务相关收入仍在加速增长。 我们知道，在第一季度资本支出大幅增加且第二季度支出预期上升后，微软计划在 2026 财年 加大投入。这对分析师来说并不意外。我们从谷歌（GOOGL）、亚马逊（AMZN）、元宇宙 （META）等其他头部 AI 企业那里，也听到了类似 "2026 年资本支出将增加" 的说法。 在 2025 财年第三季度的分析中，分析师对微软维持 "强力买入" 评级，理由是 AI 增长持续 加速且利润率保持稳健。 当时分析师还预计，资本支出增长将放缓，这可能会降低过度支出的 风险。但今年下半年 AI 需求激增，推动超大规模云 ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 美国总统特朗普心中已有了下一任美联储主席的人选，但目前尚未公布。预测市场似乎已达成共识，但领跑者也对此讳莫如深。 尽管人选的悬念预计将在未来几周内揭晓， 但远不确定的是，在美国经济处于潜在十字路口之际，这位新的央行领导者将面临何种环境。 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）被视为最明确的领跑者。此前彭博新闻社上周的一份报告评估了五位有望接替现任主席 鲍威尔的竞争者，哈塞特因此备受提振。鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月届满。 上周日被问及这一情况时，特朗普在空军一号上告诉记者："是的，我知道我要选谁。我们会宣布的。"除此之外，当被问及哈塞特时，他只 是笑了笑，补充道："我不会告诉你的，我们会宣布的。" 金十财经 . 候选人本人在上周末的访谈节目中露面，同样回避了关于其前景的问题。哈塞特是候选人之一，其他竞争者包括现任理事沃勒和鲍曼、前理 事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）以及贝莱德固定收益部门主管里克·里德（Rick Rieder）。 "能与一群非常优秀的候选人并列，我 ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership with Synopsys, investing $2 billion to acquire a 2.6% stake, aiming to integrate AI computing technology into industrial design and engineering, which is seen as a significant opportunity beyond consumer AI applications [2][6][7]. Investment Details - NVIDIA purchased approximately 4.8 million shares of Synopsys at $414.79 per share, reflecting a 0.8% discount from the previous closing price [9]. - This investment positions NVIDIA as Synopsys' seventh-largest shareholder [6]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Synopsys' stock surged over 6.9% at one point, closing with a gain of nearly 4.9%, marking a recovery from earlier losses this year [3]. - NVIDIA's stock initially dipped by 1.9% but later rebounded to close with a gain of about 1.7% [4]. Strategic Collaboration - The partnership involves a long-term collaboration that includes using NVIDIA's CUDA-X libraries and AI technologies to enhance Synopsys' computational applications across various domains, including chip design and physical verification [12]. - Both companies will work on digital twin technologies to improve virtual design, testing, and validation across multiple industries [12]. Non-Exclusive Agreement - NVIDIA's CEO emphasized that this partnership is non-exclusive, allowing Synopsys to continue collaborating with other semiconductor and EDA ecosystem players [14][19]. - This arrangement is distinct from NVIDIA's previous investments in AI, as it does not involve exclusive agreements or procurement terms for NVIDIA chips [7][18]. Market Potential - The industrial market represents a massive opportunity, with potential spending on engineering software tools being significantly higher than on product prototyping [16]. - The shift from CPU to GPU in supercomputing indicates a broader trend that NVIDIA aims to leverage in the engineering design sector [16]. Industry Context - The collaboration is viewed as a strategic move to enhance NVIDIA's influence in the AI-driven computing market, providing credibility and driving growth in the EDA sector [20].

【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 Netflix （纳斯达克代码：NFLX）或许可以说是一只颇具争议的公司 —— 市场上既有坚定的 支持者，也有强烈的质疑者。 但随着近期市场波动性上升，分析师的投资兴趣开始浓厚。按照 分析师的交易风格，近期价格下跌开始寻找潜在的逆向交易机会。 估值对比：增长与盈利优势显著 第三季度业绩：盈利不及预期，营收与现金流表现稳健 第三季度，网飞的业绩呈现明显的疲软迹象。市场负面反应主要源于每股收益（EPS）大幅不 及预期 —— 仅为 5.87 美元（净利润 25.5 亿美元）。不过，与巴西税务部门的持续纠纷对 这一令人失望的表现产生了重大影响（涉及 6.19 亿美元的一次性支出）。遗憾的是，这导致 每股收益同比增长率不足 9%—— 考虑到当前估值，这一增速本身就相当平淡。根据业绩指 引，巴西税务问题预计还将导致全年运营利润率下降 1 个百分点。因此，过去两周市场抛售该 股的反应具有一定合理性。 当前真正的问题是，此次下跌是否为网飞创造了新的进入机会？从积极方面来看，第三季度营 收达 115 亿美元，同比增长 17%，轻松达到市场共识预期。营收的稳定增长得益于网飞的广 告业务（其关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where following Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering interest rates could result in severe market consequences [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights two potential paths for the Federal Reserve: adopting a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or facing increased equilibrium interest rates due to significant capital expenditures [2][8]. - If the Fed lowers interest rates based solely on the expectation of AI enhancing productivity, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past, particularly given the current inflationary environment [2][5]. - Conversely, if the Fed does not lower rates, it may inadvertently push the market into a crisis, especially if inflation resurfaces as a primary concern by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Greenspan's strategy of "cleaning up rather than intervening" suggests that the Fed may not actively burst asset bubbles but will respond post-factum [3][15]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair are positioning themselves as successors to Greenspan, citing the AI revolution as a justification for lowering rates, despite historical lessons indicating caution [5][6]. - The dual legacy of Greenspan illustrates the Fed's challenge in balancing the benefits of technological advancements against the risks of rising equilibrium interest rates [6][8]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - The report identifies three critical questions that will shape the Fed's policy direction: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector will be inflationary [10]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains similar to those seen in the 1990s [12]. 3. Who will benefit from the productivity improvements brought about by AI [13][14]. Group 4: Economic Implications of AI - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [8][12]. - However, a surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may elevate equilibrium interest rates, necessitating a careful approach from the Fed to avoid overly loose monetary policy [8][10]. - Historical data suggests that during the 1990s, wage growth outpaced productivity growth, indicating that workers may benefit more from productivity gains than corporations [12][13].

【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 英 特 尔 产 品 业 务 及 代 工 业 务 · 消费级产品部门 ： 营收达 85 亿美元，较去年同期实现可观增长。考虑到当前全球消费情 绪并非特别强劲，这一表现相当令人印象深刻。如前所述，Windows 11 升级和人工智能 PC 需求等因素为其带来了显著红利，但需注意的是，该部门营业利润实则下滑，营业利润率同比 大幅收缩。这似乎表明，英特尔为了扩大芯片销量而牺牲了短期盈利能力 —— 尽管这会带来 一定的短期阵痛，但该策略可能有助于其显著提升市场份额，长期来看或能带来回报。 · 数据中心业务 ： 营收同比持平，这或许略令人失望。尽管公司称至强（Xeon）芯片需求受 人工智能推动，但营收未增长意味着其在市场份额方面尚未取得重大突破。不过，该部门的盈 利能力已开始显著提升：营业利润率同比飙升超过 1400 个基点。尽管在提升产品采用率方面 仍有工作要做，但业务效率显然正处于强劲上升轨道。企业转型不仅仅关乎需求，这种显著的 利润率扩张表明，英特尔内部正在进行积极改善。就在最近，英伟达（NVDA）和英特尔宣布 合作，"将联合开发面向超大规模、企业和消费市场的多代定制数据中心和 ...

来源 | 新智元 OpenAI是历史上最烧钱的初创公司！ OpenAI没有上市，因此也无需公开其营收。 不过，根据其和微软达成的一项协议，微软分享了OpenAI总收入的20%，同时公布的还有针对Azure服务的模型推理成本。 据此，图1看到展示了，从2024年第一季度至2025年第三季度，OpenAI在微软Azure上的季度推理支出（红色实线）与基于微软20%分成反 推的隐含收入（绿色虚线）。 基于微软数据估计的OpenAI的收入与推理成本 OpenAI的推理支出的增长速度远超收入，两者之间的「成本-收入剪刀差」在2025年后急剧扩大： 2024年Q1支出仅略高于收入。 但到025年Q3，支出已飙升至约36.5亿美元，而同期隐含收入仅为20.6亿美元。 这意味着每赚1美元收入，OpenAI需要花费近1.8美元用于推理计算，亏损幅度持续恶化。 推理成本的增速远高于收入，这揭示了 OpenAI 为何需要持续融资方可维持运营。 在采访中，奥特曼宣称OpenAI的「年收入将远超130亿美元」，但按照上图给出的估计，这是完全不具备可行性的。 从年度对比来看，更能看出问题: 2025前9个月推理支出（86.7亿）已是20 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, highlighting the broad opportunities it presents in the market [3] - Emerging markets are expected to face their first monthly decline in 2025, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down 0.2% as of November 28, leading to a cumulative decline of 2.5% for the month [5] - Despite the losses in November, the MSCI index has shown an overall increase for the year, with analysts remaining optimistic about emerging markets due to improving fundamentals and the expanding benefits of AI [5] Group 2 - Beijing's AI industry is projected to exceed 450 billion yuan in 2025, with the core industry size expected to reach 215.22 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.3% [6] - According to a report by CICC, the current risk of overcrowding in the AI sector has decreased, indicating that long-term opportunities still exist, although short-term value styles may have an advantage [8] - The launch of the Doubao mobile assistant by ByteDance, which integrates advanced AI capabilities, marks a significant development in AI applications within mobile technology [9] Group 3 - Intel is expected to begin shipping Apple's lowest-tier M processors using advanced 18AP process technology as early as Q2-Q3 2027, following improved visibility in their partnership [11] - The introduction of Google's TPU has altered the landscape of computing chips, prompting North American cloud service providers to engage with Intel for advanced packaging solutions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence ecosystem is transitioning from the training phase to the inference phase, becoming a strong revenue engine for large tech companies and providing structural growth benefits for Broadcom's custom chips and networking products [1][22]. Group 1: AI Demand and Market Trends - There is a significant increase in demand for AI inference, which is expected to drive custom chip demand in the second half of 2026, leading to revenue growth in AI business [1][5]. - Major tech companies, including Google and ByteDance, are increasingly adopting Broadcom's custom chips, which are more cost-effective compared to Nvidia's GPUs [2][4]. Group 2: Custom Chip Advantages - Broadcom's custom accelerators are significantly cheaper than Nvidia's GPUs, with performance improvements in each generation [2]. - Google's upcoming seventh-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) Ironwood is designed specifically for inference, showcasing the trend towards more efficient custom solutions [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Broadcom reported a 22% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching $15.95 billion, driven by strong performance in custom AI accelerators and networking switches [11]. - The AI semiconductor business saw a 63% year-over-year revenue increase, contributing significantly to overall revenue [13]. Group 4: Future Projections - Broadcom anticipates a substantial increase in AI business revenue, projecting it could reach nearly $54 billion by FY2027, accounting for about 50% of total revenue [5][12]. - The company expects to see a 34.9% year-over-year revenue growth in FY2026, reaching $85.4 billion [12]. Group 5: Networking Solutions - Broadcom is focusing on its Tomahawk 6 switch, which is the first Ethernet switch with a capacity of 102.4 Tbps, facilitating the deployment of large-scale AI accelerator clusters [9][10]. - The shift from Nvidia's GPU+InfiniBand ecosystem to Ethernet is beneficial for Broadcom, as demand for Ethernet solutions is on the rise [8]. Group 6: Cash Flow and Valuation - Broadcom has a strong cash flow generation capability, converting 44% of revenue into free cash flow, which supports its valuation premium [18][19]. - The company maintains a competitive valuation compared to Nvidia, with a forward P/E ratio of 36.9, indicating strong profit margins and growth potential [19][20].

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 美联储最新发布的褐皮书调查显示， 美国经济活动在近几周几无变化 ，但除高端消费群体外， 整体消费者支出进一步下滑 。根据这家美国央 行于周三发布的针对地区商业联络人的褐皮书调查， 就业水平略有下降，物价则适度上涨 。 "总体而言，经济前景基本保持不变，"美联储表示，"部分联络人指出未来数月经济活动放缓的风险上升，而制造业领域则流露出一些乐观情 绪。"该报告依据美联储12家地区联储截至11月17日收集的信息编制，由达拉斯联储汇总完成。 包括纽约、亚特兰大和明尼阿波利斯在内的多个地区报告称，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭的消费能力明显疲软。明尼阿波利 斯联储引用一位联络人的观察指出："高收入客户未受制约，但财务状况处于中低水平的顾客正在收紧开支"。 对于12月会议应维持利率不变还是下调利率，美联储政策制定者之间存在分歧。这份报告为当前政策辩论的双方均提供了依据。 招聘冻结隐现 近几个月工资涨幅总体符合美联储通胀目标，但制造业、建筑业和医疗保健领域企业仍面临"温和"的薪 ...