作者 JR Research ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 不 确 定 性 随着优步技术公司（Uber Technologies, Inc.，UBER）在其商业模式中拥抱自动驾驶技术，投资者显然对其前路感到紧张。管理层对 2026 年的自动驾驶出租车推出持乐观态度（优步预计将进入超过 10 个 市场），在维持其平台护城河的同时，加速全栈式的合作伙伴关系。因此， 分析师认为，为了塑造 "这不是一个赢家通吃的市场" 这一叙事，尽可能多地抢占早期胜利符合优步的利益。 虽然其在过去一年仍取得了可观的超过 20% 的回报，但自 2025 年年中以来，它未能跑赢其工业板块同行（XLI）。 此外，加上特斯拉 （TSLA）在 2025 年底最近重新测试了其高点这一事实，优步投资者可以说正面临着一个令人不安的叙事：作为颠覆者的优步，正面临着来 自 Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下 Waymo 或埃隆・马斯克的特斯拉等重要挑战者的潜在长期颠覆，因为这些公司正日益建立其平台优势，这可 能会削弱市场对优步应对此类威胁能力的信心。 特 斯 拉 和 Wa y m o 是 强 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [3] - Apple has initiated its largest promotion in history for the newly launched iPhone Air, reducing its price by 2500 yuan to attract consumers [5] - Baidu's Wenxin Assistant is launching a cash red envelope campaign for the Spring Festival, offering a total of 500 million yuan in cash rewards [6] Group 2 - Shanghai AI unicorn Jiyue Xingchen has completed a B+ round financing, raising 5 billion yuan, setting a record for single financing in the large model sector over the past year [7] - Tencent's AI assistant Yuanbao has begun internal testing of a new social AI feature called "Yuanbao Club," allowing users to create or join groups for collaborative activities [9] - Tesla has suspended its basic Autopilot system in the US and Canada to promote its more advanced Full Self-Driving technology [11] Group 3 - Intel's latest financial report disappointed the market, leading to a 17% drop in its stock price, with analysts expressing concerns over supply constraints and profit margin pressures [12] - Apple has experienced an eight-week consecutive decline in stock price, the longest streak since May 2022, attributed to rising storage chip prices impacting profit margins [14] - Meta Platforms is facing a lawsuit for patent infringement related to smart glasses technology, which could disrupt the sales of its Ray-Ban products [15]

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 现货白银 盘初也再创新高， 首次突破106美元/盎司 。 与此同时，纳指期货周一盘初跌幅扩大至1.1%，标普500指数期货跌0.75%。受北极 寒流影响，美国 天然气 期货价格上涨16%。 最新的Kitco News每周黄金调查显示，华尔街对黄金的近期前景极为看好，而散户投资者的看涨偏见有所缩减。 Asset Strategies International总裁兼首席运营官Rich Checkan表示："在某个时候，我们会看到金价回调。我不认为本周会出现这种情 况。地缘政治比以往任何时候都更加紧张。对美联储政治影响力的担忧依然存在。对股票估值和大宗商品势头的担忧都表明金价将会走高。 趋 势是你的朋友...... " Forex.com高级市场策略师James Stanley表示看涨，他说："现在翻转偏见是没有意义的。5000美元水平可能会减缓运行速度，或暂停运 行，甚至可能带来回调，但仍然没有证据表明买家已经结束，而黄金在回调时对4900美元的反应方式向我表明，金价可能还有更多的上涨空 间。" ...

以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者专注科技产研的 AI时代，快人一步~ 随着人工智能领域竞争进入深水区，行业顶尖研究人员正对现有的模型训练范式提出质疑。 来源 |硬AI 硬AI . 来自OpenAI、Thinking Machines Lab以及亚马逊的研究人员正在探讨一种根本性的转变： 放弃目前通用的"先预训练、后后训练"的标准流 程，转而采用针对特定任务更早引入精选数据的训练模式，以解决现有模型的效率低下和"裂脑问题"等缺陷。 这一潜在的转变由亚马逊的David Luan等人大力倡导。其核心观点在于，目前的通用训练路径——即先赋予模型广泛的世界知识（如诗歌或园 艺），再针对特定任务（如代码编写或客户退款）进行微调——在逻辑上并不总是合理的。研究人员认为， 如果模型的最终用途已经确定，那 么在预训练阶段就应引入与任务高度相关的精选数据，从而更直接地为最终目标服务。 这种方法论的调整若付诸实践，将深刻改变AI行业的开发格局。这不仅意味着开发团队可能不再需要按照预训练和后后训练进行人为分割，更 预示着市场将从"一个通用模型适应所有场景"走向"基于不同数据集构建专用模型"的时代。这种转变将迫使开发者在训练初期就对数据进 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has transformed from a struggling electric vehicle startup in 2015 to a major player in the S&P 500 with a market capitalization of $1.39 trillion, despite initial skepticism about its valuation [1] Group 1: Investment Perspective - Tesla's investment outlook is complex, requiring an evaluation of its various segments: automotive, energy, and future growth areas like Full Self-Driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and Optimus [2] - Analysts initially expected to be bearish on Tesla due to limited contributions from FSD and Robotaxi, but found that short- and medium-term growth targets appear achievable [2] - Despite a valuation around $435, analysts believe there is significant potential for Tesla to meet or exceed market expectations in the upcoming quarters [2][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive sales for Q3 2025 were $20.359 billion, with total revenues from sales and services reaching $27.532 billion, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year growth [7][8] - The energy business has become a significant growth driver, with sales of $3.281 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 43.5% year-over-year increase [8][10] - The traditional automotive business, including FSD, generated $24.7 billion in revenue, accounting for 87.8% of total revenue, despite facing cyclical headwinds [8][10] Group 3: Future Growth Segments - Future business segments like Robotaxi and Optimus are still in early monetization stages and have not yet contributed to Tesla's sales [9] - Analysts project a valuation of $175 billion for Robotaxi and $522.5 billion for Optimus, indicating a significant portion of Tesla's market value is based on unproven future products [11][12] Group 4: Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Outlook - Short-term expectations for Q4 2025 are set at $24.75 billion in revenue, with analysts anticipating a slight beat against conservative estimates [15][18] - Medium-term projections for 2026 estimate revenues of $107.4 billion, driven by growth in energy and FSD, while traditional automotive sales need to stabilize [22][23] - Long-term growth expectations hinge on the successful rollout of Robotaxi and Optimus, with significant revenue increases required to meet future targets [24][25] Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Analysts currently hold a "hold" rating on Tesla, leaning bullish in the short term due to potentially low expectations for upcoming earnings [4][27] - The outlook becomes increasingly uncertain as the timeline extends, with the need for substantial growth from new technologies to justify current valuations [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Anthropic is aggressively seeking a $25 billion funding round to enhance its competitive edge in the AI programming tools market, where developer experience and agent capabilities are becoming crucial [5][43]. Group 1: Anthropic's Position and Strategy - Anthropic's Claude Code holds a 52% market share in the AI programming tools sector, demonstrating its dominance over competitors [5]. - The company has developed Cowork, a desktop application that allows Claude to access user files and execute complex tasks, expanding its application beyond mere programming [22][25]. - Anthropic's revenue growth is significant, with projected annual revenue increasing from $1 billion in 2025 to $15.2 billion in 2026, indicating a 15-fold growth rate [45][46]. Group 2: Google's Competitive Landscape - Google is positioned as a challenger in the AI programming space, with its Antigravity tool set to launch in late 2025, which emphasizes agent-first design [6][8]. - Antigravity's adoption rates are reportedly lower than established tools like Cursor and GitHub Copilot, indicating a struggle to gain traction in the developer community [13][14]. - Despite its resources, Google's full-stack advantages have not translated into competitive strength in the programming tools market [20][26]. Group 3: Hardware and Infrastructure - Anthropic has secured a deal to purchase nearly 1 million Google TPU v7 chips for $42 billion, which will provide over 1GW of computing capacity [30][31]. - The TPU v7 offers significant cost and performance advantages over NVIDIA GPUs, with a 30-44% reduction in total ownership costs and a nearly 10-fold performance increase compared to its predecessor [33][34]. - This partnership allows Anthropic to reduce dependency on NVIDIA and ensures a stable supply chain for its AI model training needs [38][39]. Group 4: Investment and Market Dynamics - Anthropic's valuation is projected to reach $350 billion following its upcoming funding round, a significant increase from $61.5 billion in March 2024 [43]. - The investment landscape is shifting, with firms like Sequoia Capital diversifying their bets across multiple AI companies, indicating a belief in a multi-winner scenario in the AI sector [50][52]. - The capital-intensive nature of AI development is creating high barriers to entry, with only companies capable of securing substantial funding able to compete effectively [53][54]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The competition between Google and Anthropic is characterized by different strategic focuses, with Google leveraging its infrastructure and Anthropic concentrating on developer tools [59][60]. - The battle for dominance in AI programming tools is critical, as developers are key to shaping the future of software production [61].

作者 Deep Value Investing ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 随着 2026 财年第二季度财报将于 1 月 28 日发布，分析师将微软公司（MSFT）的评级下调至 "持有"（Hold）。 分析师的下调主要基于两个因素。 2.公司动态。 让我们先看看华尔街对未来几个季度每股收益（EPS）的普遍预期。 一言以蔽之：自 2026 财年第一季度财报发布后的大涨以来，预期一直保持不变。看看华尔街对未来 12 个月的营收预测，自第一季度以来， 预期也保持不变。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 首先，近期的抛售主要由公司无法控制的外部压力驱动。 科技板块自去年 10 月以来一直承压，而软件基础设施行业（微软是该行业市值最高 的公司）是主要拖累之一。 虽然许多只看基本面的投资者认为这是逢低买入的机会，但分析师认为未来仍有进一步的下行风险。鉴于云业务毛利率承压（上季度为 68%，预计第二财季为 66%）且资本支出（CapEx）仍在增加，分析师认为第三财季的利润率指引可能会发出预警。分析师不再认为提高资 本支出指引对超大规模云服务商是利好。 因此，分 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and its potential opportunities in the market [3] - U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren and three other Democratic senators have urged an investigation into the risks posed by large debt financing for AI companies, warning of potential financial crises if these companies fail to generate sufficient revenue [5] - The demand for clean and stable electricity is increasing due to AI-driven workloads, leading to accelerated development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, particularly in Texas and the Midwest [6] Group 2 - Public mutual funds have updated their top ten holdings, with new entries including Cambricon Technologies and Dongshan Precision, while companies like Industrial Fulian and SMIC have exited the list [8] - South Korea has implemented the world's first comprehensive AI law, aimed at promoting healthy industry development while addressing potential downsides, though concerns remain among small and medium enterprises regarding compliance [9] - Alphabet's Google is enhancing its AI search capabilities by personalizing responses based on user data from Gmail and Google Photos, allowing for more tailored search results [11] Group 3 - Intel reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, with a 9% year-over-year increase in its data center and AI business, but provided a weak first-quarter guidance due to supply constraints, leading to a significant drop in stock price [12] - Apple has expanded the responsibilities of hardware chief John Ternus, signaling his potential succession as CEO Tim Cook's successor, which emphasizes the importance of design in Apple's product strategy [13]

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 最新公布的通胀数据显示， 美联储青睐的通胀指标在去年11月基本符合预期 ， 但这并未为政 策制定者提供太多参考依据，这让他们难以确定何时再次降息才是合适的时机。 美国经济分析局周四报告称， 剔除食品和能源后的核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数11月 环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%；整体PCE环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，均复合市场预 期。 数据公布后， 现货黄金 短线波动不大。 值得注意的是，这些数据受到创纪录长的政府停摆影响而推迟发布，因此这些数字反映的是去 年11月的情况，也就是几个月前的数据。 虽然PCE是美联储首选的通胀指标， 但 报告的滞后性意味着官员们对此数据的看重程度可能 会低于正常情况。 即便如此， 这些数据表明通胀仍然具有粘性但保持稳定，并维持在近期水平附近 。 鉴于更具 时效性的去年12月和2026年初的数据尚未出炉，美联储似乎已准备好保持耐心，并在1月27 日至28日的政策会议上维持利率不变。此前他们在2025年底连续三次降息，许多官员指出劳 ...

作者 Julian Lin ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众 号对文中观点结论认可。 美光科技（MU） 如今成了 AI 概念股里的香饽饽。公司发布的 财报亮眼到堪称 "英伟达式高 光时刻" ，引得投资者趋之若鹜。 但在一片狂热之中，建议大家先冷静下来，好好琢磨一个关键问题： 这份亮眼业绩到底能不能 持续？ 在分析师看来，当前价格早已透支了业绩峰值的利好，不少投资者却盲目乐观，觉得行业逻辑 已经彻底改变。因此，分析师将美光科技的评级下调至 卖出 。 美光是一家专注于存储芯片的半导体企业。公司最新一季度交出了一份惊艳的成绩单：营收同 比大增 57%，达到 136.4 亿美元。 这已经是公司营收增速连续第二个季度加快。看多的投资者认为，这足以反驳 "美光业绩具有 周期性" 的质疑 —— 毕竟即便在 2024 年营收增速达到 93% 的峰值后，增长势头依旧强 劲。 | | | Nov 2025 | Aug 2025 | May 2025 | Feb 2025 | Nov 2024 | Aug 2024 | May 2024 | Feb 2024 | Nov 2023 | Aug 20 ...