Core Viewpoint - Shopify has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past three years, and the recent decline of nearly 40% from its peak may present a buying opportunity [2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Shopify reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $123.84 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31.1%, exceeding market expectations of $119.96 billion by $3.88 billion [7]. - Revenue for the quarter reached $3.67 billion, up 30.6% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $3.59 billion by $0.82 billion [8]. - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) was $205 million, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year growth, also exceeding expectations of $199.05 million by $0.0595 million [8]. - Operating income was $631 million, a 35.7% increase year-over-year [9]. - Free cash flow amounted to $715 million, up 17.0% year-over-year, although the profit margin declined [10]. Yearly Financial Overview - For the year ended December 31, 2025, key financial metrics included: - GMV: $378.44 billion, up from $292.28 billion in 2024 [11]. - Revenue: $11.56 billion, compared to $8.88 billion in 2024 [11]. - Gross profit: $5.56 billion, up from $4.47 billion in 2024 [11]. - Operating income: $1.47 billion, compared to $1.08 billion in 2024 [11]. - Free cash flow: $2.01 billion, up from $1.60 billion in 2024 [11]. - The year-over-year revenue growth rate was 30% for 2025, compared to 26% for 2024 [11]. Margin Trends - The gross margin decreased from 48% to 46%, and the free cash flow margin fell from 22% to 19% [12]. - The decline in gross margin has been a structural trend since 2016, with a compound annual growth rate decline of -1.2% [12]. - The company attributes this trend to the growth of merchant solutions, which typically have lower margins than subscription solutions [13]. Operating Expenses - Over the past two years, the proportion of sales and marketing, research and development, and general and administrative expenses relative to revenue has decreased, indicating strong operating leverage [14]. - Transaction and loan loss provisions have increased, primarily due to financing-related merchant solutions, but are expected to normalize without significant value erosion [14]. 2026 Performance Guidance - Shopify expects revenue growth in Q1 2026 to remain above 30%, similar to Q4 2025 levels [18]. - Gross profit growth is anticipated to be in the high 20% range [19]. - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue are projected to be between 37% and 38% [20]. - Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the range of 10% to 15%, slightly lower than Q1 2025 [21]. Valuation - Shopify's current valuation appears to be below the historical median, which is high at 31 times gross profit [22]. - Using a five-year discounted cash flow model, assuming a 25% annual growth rate for free cash flow, the implied value is approximately $77 billion, indicating the current stock price may be overvalued by nearly 100% [22]. - In a highly optimistic scenario with a 25% growth rate over ten years, the reasonable equity value could be around $155.6 billion, suggesting a slight undervaluation at the current market cap of $149 billion [22]. Conclusion - Analysts view Shopify as a high-quality company with a strong market position and recurring revenue model, justifying a valuation premium [27]. - Despite a 40% decline, market growth expectations remain high, and pressures on profit margins and economic downturn risks have not been fully priced into the stock, potentially creating a buying opportunity [27].

微软云业务本季度再度实现亮眼增长，营收达 515 亿美元，年化运行率突破 2060 亿美元。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 微软数据中心算力规模新增近 1GW，并正式部署首批 Maia 200 AI 加速芯片，用于内部 AI 研发、Copilot 及 Foundry 平台。 作者Michael Del Monte，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本 公众号对文中观点结论认可。 过去一年，市场对微软在人工智能竞赛中的地位担忧加剧，公司股价承受了一定压力。 随着同行超大规模云服务商纷纷宣布下一财年资本预算大幅上调，微软则采取了更为保守的策 略以保障自由现金流，并未选择激进扩张。 在近期回调后，分析师认为微软的投资价值已显著提升，尤其相较于其他超算服务商存在明显 估值折价。因此，分析师将微软股票评级上调至强力买入。 本次观点的核心，主要围绕微软内外部 AI 开发的算力分配，以及微软与同行超算服务商的预 期资本开支。评级上调很大程度上源于价值重估，同时分析师的财务预测也是估值调整的重要 依据。 微 软 运 营 近 况 Foundry 是微软面向企业级 AI 开发的平台，支持超 1100 ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 来源 | 金十财经 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）表示，1月就业数据表现强劲确实出人意料，但这不意味着政策制定者应当推迟进一步降息。 米兰指出，放松商业监管等供给端改革计划已经提上日程，加上住房通胀预计放缓，这些因素将为决策层继续下调基准利率创造条件。自去 年9月加入美联储理事会以来，米兰在历次政策会议上均投下反对票，主张比同僚更大规模的降息。 "出于多种原因，我希望看到利率走低，" 米兰在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，"今天的就业数据确实令我对经济前景感到乐观，但坦率 地说，在供给端持续释放潜力的背景下，货币政策仍有空间采取配合姿态。" 米兰周三还表示， 如果被要求长期留任美联储，他将"非常乐意" ， 但决定权不在他。 米兰的任期已于1月31日届满，尽管在新任人选获得确认之前他仍可留任，但他所持的美联储理事席位，是目前唯一一个能让特朗普提名凯文 ·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席的席位——除非现任主席鲍威尔在5月中旬其主席任期届满时同时辞去理事职务。鲍威尔尚未透露他 将怎么做，他的美联储理事席位要到2028年1月才会到期。 金十财经 ...

以下文章来源于字母AI ，作者苗正 字母AI . 聚焦前沿科技，抢先看到未来。 这让全球游戏产业正在经历一场前所未有的危机。 祸不单行，AI技术的革新换代，也让游戏开发者们感到了危机。 生成式AI正以超出预期的速度替代游戏开发的每一个环节。从美术素材到NPC对话，从关卡生成到音效配 乐，AI工具正在大规模替代传统人力。 谷歌发布Genie 3世界模型的那一天，甚至直接引起了游戏公司股价集体暴跌。 如果AI能在一分钟内生成"类塞尔达"游戏，那么开发一款游戏就需要好几年的游戏厂商们，还有存在的必要 吗？ 正是这两股力量同时作用，才让整个行业出现了重塑的先兆。 来源 | 字母AI（ID:faceaibang） 作者 | 苗正 过去三十年，英伟达的显卡一直在推动游戏产业向前发展。《赛博朋克 2077》、《荒野大镖客 2》这些 3A 大作，都建立在显卡性能不断进步的基础上。 没有英伟达这三十年的持续研发，就没有今天规模超过3000亿美元的全球游戏产业。 但这个故事突然停止了。英伟达宣布无限期推迟新一代游戏显卡的研发，官方给出的理由是"内存供应受限， 优先供应数据中心"。 然而，恐慌之下，游戏行业真正的护城河也在显现，因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent internal rotation in the U.S. stock market, highlighting a shift from a few large-cap stocks leading the market to a broader participation across various sectors, while also addressing the impact of AI on traditional business models and the resulting market volatility [5][7][8]. Market Performance - On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell by approximately 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by about 0.1%, reaching a new historical high [5]. - The equal-weighted S&P index also reached a record high, indicating a shift in market dynamics with around 300 stocks in the S&P 500 rising [7]. Retail Sales Data - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales were flat month-over-month, significantly below the expected 0.4% growth, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [9]. - Core retail sales, excluding autos and gas, even showed a decline, reflecting weakened consumer spending momentum during the holiday season [9]. Interest Rate Expectations - The weak retail data led to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices and a decline in yields, with the futures market increasing the probability of three rate cuts within the year, with two already priced in [9]. - Historical trends suggest that rate cut expectations typically support risk assets, but the current market shows a divergence where rates are falling but stocks are not rising, particularly in the tech sector [11]. AI Impact on Market Sentiment - Market participants are shifting their interpretation of AI's impact from a growth narrative to concerns about short-term disruptions, leading to a "sell first, think later" mentality [12]. - Investors are moving from an "AI is a panacea" mindset to a more pragmatic "performance realization" phase, anticipating greater differentiation between winners and losers in the market [12]. Institutional Perspectives - There is a noticeable divergence in institutional views on the tech sector, with Goldman Sachs warning about the risks of overestimating AI's growth potential and emphasizing the need for actual earnings and cash flow improvements to support tech valuations [13]. - UBS downgraded its rating on the U.S. tech sector from "overweight" to "neutral," citing key risks while still acknowledging the long-term potential of AI [14]. Wealth Management Sector - The wealth management sector has come under scrutiny following the launch of an AI tool by Altruist Corp., which automates tasks traditionally reliant on human expertise, raising concerns about the core revenue models of wealth management firms [17][18]. - The market reacted sharply, with significant declines in stocks of major wealth management firms, indicating fears about the long-term competitive structure of the industry under AI pressure [19][21]. Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off in the market has been attributed to fears that AI tools could undermine the intermediary value of insurance brokers, leading to a significant drop in the insurance brokerage sector [22]. - The recent downturn in the software sector has seen substantial market capitalization losses, with estimates indicating a combined loss of approximately $611 billion across software, financial services, and asset management sectors [26]. Conclusion - The current market environment reflects a transition from viewing AI as a beneficiary narrative to recognizing potential victims, with traditional software companies facing heightened scrutiny and volatility [27]. - The article suggests that this phase serves as a valuation and business model stress test, prompting a reevaluation of which revenue models are based on irreplaceable value versus those reliant on information asymmetry [34].

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro Computer (SMCI) reported an impressive quarterly earnings performance, yet its stock price showed little rebound, indicating market skepticism despite a significant reduction in AI sector risks. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, supported by strong quarterly results [1]. Group 1: Quarterly Performance - Supermicro's revenue for the second fiscal quarter reached $12.7 billion, exceeding expectations by $2.4 billion and setting a historical record, driven by a prior order of $13 billion for Blackwell Ultra GPUs [2]. - The company experienced a year-over-year revenue increase of 123% and a quarter-over-quarter surge of 153%, with third-quarter revenue guidance set at $12.3 billion, significantly above market expectations of $10.2 billion [5]. Group 2: Profit Margins and Future Expectations - Despite the strong revenue growth, the non-GAAP gross margin fell to 6.4%, leading to only a slight increase in EPS, which exceeded expectations by $0.20 [5]. - The company aims for gross margins to rebound above 20% with its DCBBS product line, which is expected to enhance profitability due to its unique offerings [5][6]. - Management previously set an overall gross margin target of 14%-17%, indicating that current low margins are a temporary effect of initial customer discounts [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Accounts Receivable - Supermicro's inventory nearly doubled to $10.6 billion, while accounts receivable surged from over $8 billion to $11 billion, reflecting the preparation for substantial orders [6]. - A significant portion of sales is linked to a major client, which is set to merge with SpaceX and aims for a valuation of $1.2 trillion, minimizing the risk of payment defaults [6]. Group 4: Revenue Guidance and Market Perception - The revenue target for fiscal year 2026 has been raised to $40 billion from $36 billion, which appears conservative given the annualized revenue nearing $50 billion for the second and third quarters [8]. - The company’s guidance suggests that only about $10 billion in revenue is needed in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target, with a single client contributing 63% of the second-quarter revenue [9]. Group 5: Earnings Projections - Current market expectations for EPS are low, with the second-quarter EPS at $0.69, leading to an annualized EPS of approximately $2.76, closely aligning with analyst forecasts for fiscal year 2027 [9]. - Under a baseline scenario with a 10% gross margin, EPS could reach $3.63, while an optimistic scenario with a 20% gross margin could see EPS rise to $9.67 [11]. Group 6: Valuation and Risks - Supermicro's current valuation corresponds to a 10x multiple of the baseline EPS, contrasting sharply with competitors like Tianhong Electronics, which has a higher valuation despite lower profit margin targets [12]. - The primary risk remains the potential for renewed accounting scandals or failure to meet financial targets, which could further erode market trust and lead to stock price declines [12].

作者 Daniel Schönberger ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味 着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 当下很难对谷歌给出明确判断并为投资者提供清晰指引。 一方面，谷歌盈利能力强劲，在未来 可能达万亿美元规模的 AI 市场中，具备成为领军者并占据主导地位的实力；即便持续大手笔 投入，公司资产负债表依旧稳健，债务规模有限，手握巨额现金及短期投资储备，自由现金流 表现亮眼。另一方面，头部 AI 企业的竞争日趋白热化，我们不禁要问：数万亿美元的 AI 投资 是否具备合理性？这些投入终有一日能否转化为同等规模的营收和利润？ 即便 AI 泡沫破裂，谷歌无疑会是幸存者之一，公司经营状况良好、资产负债表扎实。但市场 情绪的转向可能导致几乎所有企业股价下跌，AI 概念股首当其冲，投资者或将面临巨额账面亏 损。若 AI 炒作热潮戛然而止，谷歌暴跌 50% 甚至更多，并非没有可能。 尽管分析师对谷歌的投资态度趋于谨慎，但市场显然有不同看法：近三个月里，谷歌不仅大幅 跑赢同期仅上涨 3% 的标普 500 指数，其自身涨幅也十分可观。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 即便如此，分析师仍需重申：对谷 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and its implications for various industries, particularly focusing on investment opportunities and market trends in AI-related companies [3]. Group 1: Financial Sector Impact - The launch of a new AI tool by Altruist Corp. for tax strategy formulation has raised concerns about the future of traditional wealth management firms, leading to significant stock declines. Notable drops include Charles Schwab down 8.1%, Raymond James Financial down 8.5%, LPL Financial down 8.4%, and Stifel Financial down 7.2% [5]. Group 2: AI Investment and Growth - Blackstone Group is increasing its investment in AI company Anthropic PBC, raising its stake to approximately $1 billion. The investment includes $200 million in a current funding round, valuing Anthropic at $350 billion, with the company potentially doubling its initial funding target of $10 billion due to strong investor demand [6]. - Alibaba Cloud's market share in China's cloud market has grown from 34% to 36%, maintaining its leading position for three consecutive quarters. AI is identified as a key driver for new demand in cloud infrastructure services, with Alibaba's AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit year-over-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [8]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Alibaba Qianwen and Fliggy have announced AI collaborations with over 40 global travel brands, providing exclusive subsidies and value-added benefits to users of their AI applications. Partner brands include major airlines and hotel chains, enhancing the travel experience through AI integration [9]. Group 4: Corporate Financial Activities - Alphabet Inc. (Google's parent company) is set to raise nearly $32 billion through bond issuance, breaking records with strong demand, including over $100 billion in subscriptions for its dollar bonds and nearly ten times the subscription for its £1 billion century bond [11]. - Amazon disclosed a 5.3% stake in electric aviation company Beta Technologies, holding approximately 11.8 million shares. This investment aligns with Amazon's focus on climate initiatives, although Beta's stock has seen a 51% decline over the past three months [12]. Group 5: Leadership Changes - Tesla has appointed Joe Ward, the head of its European operations, to oversee global electric vehicle sales, marking a significant leadership change as the company navigates challenges in its automotive business [13].

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) has faced significant valuation challenges, with analysts warning of substantial downside risks despite strong business performance. The company's stock has dropped nearly 50% due to market concerns that AI could disrupt its core business [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Stock Decline - The recent decline in Intuit's stock is attributed to market sentiment rather than fundamental performance, with valuation multiples compressing from approximately 30x to 19x, a reduction of over 50% [4]. - The sell-off aligns with a broader pullback in the software sector, reflecting a market perception that if software development costs approach zero, the value of Intuit's software business will significantly decrease [8]. Group 2: Business Resilience and Growth - Despite the stock decline, Intuit's business remains robust, with several segments showing accelerated growth. For FY24, total revenue is projected to be $16.285 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 13% [11]. - TurboTax, a key revenue driver, is expected to see growth despite AI advancements, as users trust its established solutions for maximizing tax returns and minimizing risks [9][20]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Intuit's non-GAAP operating margin improved by 3.4 percentage points, and GAAP operating income nearly doubled, indicating strong operational performance [12]. - The current valuation of Intuit at $443 reflects a price-to-earnings ratio below 20x, which is 48% lower than its five-year average, suggesting a significant undervaluation [15]. - Analysts emphasize that the current valuation based on GAAP earnings guidance is only 28x, a critical metric for assessing the company's financial health [17].

来源 | 华尔街见闻 美国财政部长贝森特周日表示， 即便是在此前批评央行债券购买计划的沃什被提名美联储主席的情况下，他不认为美联储会迅速采取行动缩 减资产负债表。 据报道，贝森特在福克斯新闻频道的"周日早间期货"节目中指出， 美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对其资产负债表作出决定。 这一表态为市场提供了关键的政策预期指引，暗示货币当局在资产负债表管理上将采取审慎和观望的态度。 贝森特强调， 资产负债表的调整取决于美联储自身的意愿，如果转向"充裕（储备）机制"政策，实际上需要维持较大的资产负债表规模。 他 预计美联储"可能会先退一步，至少花一年时间来决定他们想要做什么"，这表明短期内大规模的量化紧缩加速或急剧转向的可能性较低。 然而，在去年12月，美联储开始通过购买国库券的技术性操作，再次增加了债券持有量。此举旨在确保金融系统拥有充足的流动性，从而有 力地控制其利率目标区间。 审 慎 的 政 策 路 径 与 时 间 表 贝森特明确表示，沃什将是一位非常独立的美联储主席，关于资产负债表的具体操作将完全由美联储决定。但他同时给出了较为明确的预期 管理，即不应期待任何快速的行动。 贝森特指出，如果美联储决定采取所谓的" ...