Group 1 - China's actual GDP growth rate reached 5.2% in the first half of the year, slightly exceeding targets, but nominal GDP remains relatively weak due to ongoing deflation in CPI and PPI [2] - Fiscal policy has been front-loaded with measures such as local debt replacement, subsidies for trade-ins, and increased social security spending, resulting in faster expenditure growth from January to May compared to previous years, potentially overextending growth for the remainder of the year [2] - The upcoming high-level meeting in July is expected to adopt a more moderate and observational tone, with no significant fiscal stimulus likely until after the trade pause between China and the U.S. ends in August [2] Group 2 - Additional policy measures are anticipated in the fall, likely waiting for clearer data in the third quarter, with expectations set for late September or October [2] - Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this year, significant cuts are expected in the future, potentially totaling 175 basis points over the next two years [2] - The U.S. dollar is projected to depreciate by another 10%, following a previous 10% decline, leading to a cumulative depreciation of 20% [2] Group 3 - China's promotion of stablecoins is not aimed at making them investment tools or exchange instruments, but rather focuses on cross-border trade settlement [2] - It is suggested to combine export controls on strategic resources like rare earths with stablecoin pilot programs, involving state-owned enterprises and banks to issue stablecoins specifically for rare earth trade, thereby strengthening financial autonomy [3] - A humanoid robot contains an average of 1 kg of rare earths, 2 kg of lithium, 3 kg of graphite, and 6.5 kg of copper, with China currently holding 88% of global rare earth supply, 93% of graphite, and 75% of lithium refining market [3] Group 4 - By 2050, the demand for strategic mineral resources in the global robotics industry is estimated to reach $800 billion [4]

Group 1 - Genting New Year (01952) rose over 3% after showcasing excellent data on its AI+mRNA platform for reversible BTK treatment of membranous nephropathy [1] - China Southern Airlines (01055) fell 1.79%, while China Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped 2.88% [1] - Rongchang Bio (09995) increased by 8.48%, while Kangfang Bio (09926) rose by 6.5% [2] Group 2 - Gold stocks collectively declined, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) down 4.64% [2] - Now Medical Technology (02225) rose over 3% after announcing a partnership with David Medical to expand in the global endoscope market [2] - Data center stocks saw gains, with GDS Holdings (09698) up over 7% [2] Group 3 - NIO Inc. (09868) fell over 4% as the price of its G7 model was reduced to 195,800 yuan [2] - A-share listed company Datadog (DDOG.US) opened significantly higher, up nearly 10%, after being added to the S&P 500 index [6] - Lucid Group (LCID.US) reported a 38% year-on-year increase in second-quarter sales, reaching 3,309 vehicles [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite short-term challenges from Douyin's traffic impact on food delivery and local life, as well as profit pressure from JD's food delivery, Meituan's high organizational efficiency and significant scale advantages suggest that it may represent a long-term investment opportunity over a two to three-year horizon [1] Financial Performance - In Q1, the company's revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, exceeding market expectations of 85.4 billion yuan; adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46.2% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the market forecast of 9.73 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.6% [2] - Core local business revenue grew 17.8% year-on-year to 64.3 billion yuan, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% respectively; the healthy growth in food delivery was driven by a reduction in subsidies [5] Business Segments - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to 22.2 billion yuan, although the growth rate slowed compared to the previous quarter; operating losses in new businesses narrowed by 18% year-on-year to 2.3 billion yuan, but widened quarter-on-quarter due to overseas expansion [5] - The management expects a slowdown in core local business revenue growth in Q2 due to intensified competition, with delivery order growth potentially decreasing from 15% in Q1 to 10%-11% [6] Competitive Landscape - The core competition in the food delivery sector is shifting towards instant retail, with the Ministry of Commerce predicting that the instant retail market will exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [7] - Meituan's strategy combines both defensive and offensive elements, with its flash purchase business serving as a key growth driver in instant retail [9][11] - JD's entry into the food delivery market is seen as a defensive move to protect its user base from Meituan's encroachment [12] Market Share and User Dynamics - Meituan's average order value is higher than that of its competitors, focusing on high-frequency essential food consumption, which results in a healthier order structure [14] - As of mid-June, Meituan's daily payment orders remained above 90 million, while JD and Taobao reported peak daily order volumes of over 25 million and 40 million respectively, maintaining a market share ratio of approximately 7:2:1 [16] Cost Structure and Cash Flow - Meituan maintains a significant advantage in delivery costs, with an average fulfillment cost of 4.2 yuan compared to JD's estimated cost of 11.5 yuan [17] - The company reported a robust cash flow of 10.1 billion yuan in Q1, with cash reserves of 115 billion yuan, significantly higher than JD's cash flow and reserves [17] Subsidy Strategies - JD has adjusted its subsidy policy, shifting a larger burden onto merchants, indicating the unsustainability of high subsidies and potentially alleviating competitive pressure on Meituan [18][19] Long-term Outlook - Meituan's scale advantages and logistics capabilities in instant retail are expected to support its market share and competitive strength, with a potential stock price turning point anticipated in the second half of 2025 [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong U.S. labor market and solid economic fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with May's figure revised from 139,000 to 144,000 and April's from 147,000 to 158,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, significantly lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [2]. - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, slightly below expectations and the previous value of 62.4% [2]. - Hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.9% [2]. - The overall employment growth and declining unemployment rate suggest a strong labor market, although the private sector saw a decrease of 63,000 jobs when excluding government job additions [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the non-farm data, the market now anticipates a 93% probability that the July interest rate will remain unchanged, with expectations for rate cuts starting in September, totaling two cuts within the year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's need to lower rates is supported by the actual interest rate being 1.78%, which is higher than the natural rate of 1.0% by 0.78 percentage points [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has previously hindered the Fed's ability to cut rates, but as this uncertainty diminishes, the likelihood of rate cuts increases [3]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently declined too quickly, potentially leading to a reallocation opportunity if rates rise due to increased bond supply and temporary inflation spikes [4]. - The potential passage of significant fiscal legislation could result in approximately $1 trillion in bond issuance from July to September, which, along with inflationary pressures, may drive interest rates higher [4]. - The stock market is also expected to face challenges in the third quarter, but any volatility could present reallocation opportunities, maintaining a non-pessimistic outlook [4].

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose over 3% as Mali Lithium's Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase one officially commenced production [1] - Delin International (01126) increased by over 6% due to capacity expansion in China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, benefiting from the trend of popular toys [1] - Global New Materials International (06616) surged over 7% following the announcement of the acquisition of Merck's surface solutions business [1] - Leapmotor (09863) rose over 3% after announcing a carbon credit transfer agreement worth 1.5 billion on July 1 [1] - Zai Lab - B (01672) increased over 6% as ASC30 completed its first dosing in trial participants, with expected data in Q4 [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan International (01788) rose over 5% after receiving approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading [2] - Giant Star Legend (06683) increased over 6% after its subsidiary invested 8 million USD in the Starlight New Economy Industry Fund [2] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 4% as it announced the commercialization of Ma Shidu Peptide following its recent approval [2] - Kangfang Biologics (09926) surged over 7% after announcing the clinical enrollment of its first dual-antibody ADC drug AK146D1 [2] - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China (02282) up 3.1%, New World Development (00200) up 3.06%, Sands China (01928) up 1.96%, and Wynn Macau (01128) up 1.91% [2] Group 3 - Xinyi Energy (03868) surged over 56% after announcing the listing of its solar power station REIT, which is expected to improve its financial condition [3] - GAC Group (02238) rose over 4% as GAC Aion awaits the right timing to advance its capitalization process [3] - Honghua Group (00196) increased over 7% after signing a sales agreement for drilling rigs worth over 100 million USD with a Middle Eastern client [3] - Steel stocks fell sharply, with Chongqing Steel (01053) down 19.19% and Ansteel (00347) down 2.69% [3] - Real estate stocks collectively rose, with R&F Properties (02777) up 6.86% and Agile Group (03383) up 5.95% [3] Group 4 - Jingji Financial International (01468) rose over 20% after investing 12 million USD in Amber International shares [4] - Duodian Smart (02586) soared nearly 90% amid reports of its preparation to apply for a Hong Kong stablecoin license [4] - WanGuo Data - SW (09698) opened nearly 7% higher as it plans to issue a total of 800 million shares in its C-REIT IPO [4] Group 5 - BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI.US) rose over 13%, experiencing an 80% surge over the past seven trading days [5] - Adobe (ADBE.US) fell over 3%, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 16% [5] - Cyngn (CYN.US) surged over 11% after raising 32 million USD and securing financing until 2027 [5] - Bitcoin-related stocks rose, with Robinhood (HOOD.US) up over 6% and CleanSpark (CLSK.US) up over 12% [6]

Group 1 - S&P Global announced that Datadog will replace Juniper Networks in the S&P 500 index, effective before the market opens on July 9 [1] - Following the announcement, Datadog's stock surged nearly 11% in after-hours trading [1] - HPE completed its acquisition of Juniper Networks for $13.4 billion, and reached a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding the transaction [1] Group 2 - The technology sector has a significant weight in the S&P 500 index, and its exposure is increasing as tech companies penetrate more areas of society [2] - Datadog went public in 2019 and reported a net profit of $24.6 million and revenue of $761.6 million in Q1 2025 [2] - Competitors of Datadog include Cisco, which acquired Splunk, as well as Elastic and cloud infrastructure providers like Amazon and Microsoft [2] Group 3 - Despite the index inclusion, Datadog's performance has lagged behind the tech sector this year, with a year-to-date decline of 5.5% compared to a 5.6% increase in the Nasdaq index [3] - Datadog's current market capitalization stands at $46.6 billion, significantly above the median level of the index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Irrational Exuberance Index" developed by Barclays has surpassed the warning threshold of 10.7%, indicating a resurgence of speculative trading in the U.S. stock market, reminiscent of past market bubbles [1][2]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The "Irrational Exuberance Index" has reached a monthly average of 10.7%, the first time it has crossed the double-digit threshold since February, with a historical average of around 7% [1]. - The index is based on derivatives market data, volatility indicators, and options market sentiment signals, and has previously peaked during the late 1990s internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1]. - The market is currently characterized by speculative trading, with significant increases in popular concept stocks and traditional fundamental analysis becoming less effective [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - Optimism in the market is driven by expectations of trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners, as well as speculation that the Trump administration may delay tariff implementation [2]. - The SPAC issuance has rebounded significantly, with the number of new SPACs in 2025 already exceeding the total for the previous two years [2]. - The ARK Innovation ETF has recorded one of its highest annual gains, with specific sectors showing extreme performance: Bitcoin-related stocks surged by 78%, quantum computing stocks rose by 69%, and meme stocks averaged a 44% increase [2]. Group 3: Risk and Recommendations - The index readings indicate overly exuberant investor sentiment, which poses a risk of increased market volatility [2]. - There is a strong correlation between the index and net borrowing positions in margin accounts, reflecting high retail participation [2]. - Despite the presence of bubble signals, timing the market remains challenging, and historical trends suggest bubbles can last longer than expected [2].

点击蓝字，关注我们 FedWatch，7月降息预期已提升至21.7%，但大概率维持不变，将导致港股海外资金流出压力上升；9 月降息概率91.1%，9月降息或已成定局。 6月24日，以伊停火，地缘冲突引发的市场短期波动逐渐缓 解。 受美联储政策预期以及市场整体风险偏好影响最大的科技股反弹行情有望延续。 国内来看，6月末六部委联合政策文件的发布，市场重燃政策发力预期；进入7月，政治局会议也是全 年重要的政策观测时点， 为实现年内增长目标，7月宏观政策有望加码。 前次6月策略涨跌情况 我们推荐的所有美股均实现正收益！ | 美股 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券同称 | 6月涨跌幅 | 所属 Wind行业 | | AMD.O | 超威半导体 | 28.15% | 信息技术 | | TEM.O | TEMPUS AI | 15.15% | 医疗保健 | | ITYN | 礼来 | 5.67% | 医疗保健 | | UNH.N | 联合健康集团 | 4.07% | 医疗保健 | | OXY.N | 西方石油 | 3.59% | 能源 | | 港股 | | | | ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1.博彩股集体高开， 新濠国际发展(00200)涨9.65%，银河娱乐(00027)涨9.04%，金沙中国(01928)涨6%； 永利澳门(01128)涨5.17%；美高梅中国(02282)涨4.97%。 2.六福集团(00590)再涨超4%， 中银国际表示，六福在2025财年下半年的营运表现超出预期。除了金价 上涨外，选择成毅作为新品牌代言人以及推出具有中国风设计的新产品系列也助力提升销售势头。 3.太古地产(01972)涨超3% ， 消息面上，近日，太古地产及太古公司联合公布，各方于本公告日期就出 售权益(即零售权益、停车场资产及设施权益)的买卖订立交易文件。 4.首程控股(00697)涨超3%， 消息面上，首程控股发布公告，近日，集团在北京成功举办了主题为"首程 领航，智创未来"的机器人产业生态峰会暨投资人大会。 5.内银股早盘普涨， 民生银行(01988)涨3.82%；中信银行(00998)涨3.21%；建设银行(00939)涨2.53%；工 商银行(01398)涨1.93%。 12.电力股早盘回暖， 大唐发电(00991)涨4.55%；华能国际(00902)涨4.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025, reaching historical highs but facing multiple uncertainties that could impact the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The direction of tariff policies remains a primary concern, with the potential for new market volatility as trade negotiations approach a critical deadline on July 9. Goldman Sachs estimates that even if some harsh tariffs are lifted, the actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 3% at the beginning of the year to 13%, which may continue to increase inflationary pressures and erode corporate profits [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings reports will be crucial, with S&P 500 companies expected to see a 5.9% growth in earnings, and investors will closely monitor how companies manage tariff-related costs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a significant market concern, with Chairman Powell indicating that inflation risks from tariffs are a key factor delaying interest rate cuts. However, the futures market anticipates three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first potentially in September [3] - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report will be a critical indicator, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could alter rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - The market is witnessing a shift in style, with technology stocks regaining dominance after an initial pullback. The S&P 500 technology sector led with a 15% increase in Q2, contributing nearly 40% of the index's gains. This concentration raises concerns, as the equal-weighted S&P 500 index only rose by 4%, indicating that most stocks did not keep pace with the leading companies [4] - For the market to maintain its upward trajectory, broader participation beyond the tech giants is necessary [4] Group 4: Valuation Pressures - Valuation pressures are significant, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22.2, well above the long-term average of 15.8. Investors are focusing on 2026 earnings expectations, which predict a 14% growth for S&P constituents, as this growth rate will be crucial for supporting valuations [7] - The direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also critical; if fiscal stimulus leads to concerns about deficits and yields spike, stock market valuations could face substantial pressure [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain a looming threat, with recent tensions in the Middle East causing temporary spikes in oil prices. Analysts warn that if conflicts escalate and disrupt oil supply, prices could exceed $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a chain reaction [9] - While historical data shows that geopolitical crises have limited long-term impacts on U.S. stock returns, short-term volatility is likely to increase [9]