Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance by the central bank to allow the appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar index and the improving macroeconomic conditions in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Actions - Since May, the central bank has gradually relaxed the fluctuation range of the USD/RMB exchange rate, lowering the middle rate to guide the RMB's appreciation. From May 9 to June 24, the USD/RMB middle rate decreased from 7.2095 to 7.1656, resulting in a cumulative appreciation of 439 pips for the RMB [1]. - The onshore RMB has appreciated nearly 700 pips, while the offshore RMB has appreciated about 650 pips during the same period [1]. Group 2: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The central bank's guidance for RMB appreciation is largely due to the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which has been influenced by the deteriorating fiscal situation of the US government and declining market confidence in the dollar [2]. - A recent Bank of America global fund manager survey indicated that the proportion of fund managers bearish on the dollar is nearing a 20-year high, suggesting that a weak dollar is becoming a consensus in macro trading this year [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The central bank's tolerance for RMB appreciation has increased, as macro policies in China have remained stable, and asset prices have begun to recover. The international trade situation has improved, allowing the central bank to gradually guide the RMB's appreciation [3]. - With the enhancement of Chinese enterprises' international competitiveness and the continuous introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to increase, making further RMB appreciation likely [3].

6月26日， 由证券时报主办、长江证券协办的"2025金长江私募基金发展论坛暨第十届中国私募基金 金长江奖颁奖典礼"在武汉成功举办， 重阳投资荣膺 2016年以来，证券时报携手长江证券推出的"中国金长江私募基金发展高峰论坛"，每年都汇集了众多金 融行业领袖和私募行业领军人物参与，为中国私募基金行业健康发展出谋献策、贡献力量。同时，主办 方力求通过客观而公允的评价体系，筛选出在本轮市场波动中表现优异的私募管理机构、基金经理和私 募产品，并让这些优异者得以充分展示，以推广其在投资方面的先进理念和成功经验，提升投资者财富 管理和风险识别能力。 公众号改变了推送规则， 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中， 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ， 能让我们之间的距离更近一步， 为了更好地相遇， 星标置顶 也是极好的。 重阳投资，始终和你在一起。 十年来，"金长江"见证了一批私募从小到大的成长，也见证了行业间的起起落落。在私募业迈入严监管 时代的背景下，私募基金唯有不断的提升投资能力和风控能力，注重公司治理，才能行稳致远。"中国私 募基金金长江奖"已成为中国私募基金业内最具影响力和权威性的奖项之一。 ▲向上滑动阅览 【免责 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and how it contributes to personal growth and decision-making, particularly through the lens of Bayesian thinking [2][3][7]. Group 1: Importance of Reading - The article highlights that reading is a crucial path for growth, as echoed by notable figures like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, who advocate for extensive reading as a means to gain wisdom [2][12]. - The initiative encourages readers to engage in discussions about books, fostering a community of learning and interaction [4][5][6]. Group 2: Bayesian Thinking - The article introduces Bayesian thinking as a powerful decision-making framework that helps individuals navigate uncertainty by updating beliefs based on new evidence [12][16][36]. - It explains the essence of Bayesian decision-making, which involves quantifying prior beliefs and continuously adjusting them with new data to optimize decisions [18][21][38]. Group 3: Three Realms of Bayesian Thinking - The first realm focuses on how to scientifically quantify prior beliefs, transforming intuition into measurable probabilities [18][20]. - The second realm emphasizes the importance of dynamic adjustment, where decision-makers should continuously update their strategies based on new information [21][22]. - The third realm discusses the concept of probabilistic thinking, where experts avoid absolute conclusions and instead consider multiple scenarios and their associated probabilities [23][26][29]. Group 4: Practical Applications - The article provides examples of how Bayesian thinking can be applied in various contexts, such as Netflix's recommendation algorithm and decision-making in the electric vehicle market [22][24]. - It also illustrates how top hedge funds utilize probabilistic scenarios to inform their strategies, demonstrating the practical utility of Bayesian methods in finance [29][36]. Group 5: Conclusion - The article concludes by asserting that Bayesian thinking is an essential tool for making informed decisions in an uncertain world, encouraging readers to adopt this mindset for better outcomes [34][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the power of the compounding effect, illustrating how small, consistent actions can lead to significant long-term results, while also highlighting the common pitfalls of seeking immediate gratification and the importance of perseverance [2][16][39]. Group 1 - The compounding effect is often overlooked due to its subtle beginnings, leading many to abandon their efforts prematurely [16][24]. - A comparison is made between two choices: taking a lump sum of $3 million versus receiving a penny that doubles every day for 31 days, demonstrating the exponential growth potential of the latter choice [18][19]. - The article presents a scenario involving three friends, illustrating how small daily choices can lead to vastly different outcomes over time, emphasizing the importance of consistency and discipline [21][24]. Group 2 - The ripple effect of small negative choices can lead to significant adverse consequences in various aspects of life, as demonstrated through the example of a character named Brad [25][28]. - The article discusses the historical context of success, noting that past generations understood the value of hard work and discipline, which contrasts with the current mindset that often seeks quick fixes [33][34]. - It warns against the "microwave mentality," where individuals expect instant results, and stresses the need for sustained effort to achieve meaningful success [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but indicated a hawkish stance due to revised economic forecasts and increased inflation concerns [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates in 2023 after a 100 basis point cut last year, reflecting a cautious approach towards monetary policy [1] - The economic projections from the Fed have shifted towards stagflation, with lowered GDP growth expectations and increased unemployment and inflation forecasts [1] - The dot plot indicates no change in the median number of rate cuts for the year, but the number of committee members favoring no cuts has increased, suggesting a more cautious outlook [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Concerns - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the resilience of the labor market despite a slowdown, indicating that the Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation risks stemming from tariffs [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting supply chains and price stability, necessitating a restrictive policy stance to manage potential inflationary pressures [2] Group 3: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations suggest that the first rate cut could occur in September if inflation remains weak in the coming months [2] - With Powell's term ending in May 2024 and potential changes in Fed leadership, there is speculation that a more dovish approach may lead to significant rate cuts next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and continuous learning as a pathway to personal and intellectual growth, particularly in the context of navigating the complexities of the modern world and the rise of artificial intelligence [2][3][7]. Group 1: Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Future of Humanity" by Nick Bostrom, which explores the implications of advanced artificial intelligence and the future roles of humanity in a technologically advanced society [9][30]. - The book is described as challenging but rewarding, encouraging readers to engage with diverse perspectives rather than seeking definitive answers [12][30]. Group 2: Interaction and Engagement - The article invites readers to participate in discussions related to the book's themes, specifically focusing on how humanity can develop irreplaceable advantages in the age of intelligence [11][30]. - Readers are encouraged to submit their thoughts and insights, with the potential for selected contributions to receive book giveaways [6][11]. Group 3: Key Themes from the Book - The book discusses five essential tasks for humanity in the age of artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of human identity and purpose beyond mere technological advancement [18][20]. - It highlights the importance of philosophical and theological perspectives alongside scientific and technological considerations in shaping the future of human civilization [15][16]. Group 4: Tasks for Humanity - Task One: "Demystifying Machines" - Humanity must understand and control the capabilities of intelligent machines rather than being awed or fearful of them [20][22]. - Task Two: "Wisdom Elevation" - The focus should shift from knowledge to wisdom, as intelligent machines can handle knowledge tasks, leaving humans to pursue deeper existential questions [22][23]. - Task Three: "Human-Machine Synergy" - The relationship between humans and machines should be viewed as synergistic, where human effort can amplify technological capabilities [25][26]. - Task Four: "Preserving Humanity" - As machines become more advanced, it is crucial to maintain human values and emotions, ensuring that technology serves humanity rather than replacing it [26][27]. - Task Five: "Cultivating Patience" - Emphasizes the need for a calm and reflective approach to the rapid changes brought by technology, focusing on long-term goals rather than immediate results [29].

近期 上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司（简称"重阳投资"或"本公司"）发现有不法分子假冒 重阳投资及重阳投资创始人裘国根、法定代表人王庆、总裁汤进喜、合伙人舒泰峰等员 工的名义，通过手机应用程序（APP）、网站、微信、钉钉、企微等各种平台及方式开 展非法荐股、非法集资等非法活动，骗取投资者资金或者信息。 为提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，重阳投资郑重声明及提示如下： 一、重阳投资全称为 "上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司" ，为中国证券投资基金业协会登记的 私募证券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000265），重阳投资和重阳投资基金从业人员的公示 信息均可以通过中国证券投资基金业协会官方网站 （https://www.amac.org.cn/） 进行查询。请 广大投资者注意甄别行为主体。 二、重阳投资一贯严格遵守法律法规、自律规则的各项规定向合格投资者非公开募集资金，仅 开展私募证券投资基金管理业务和私募资管产品投资顾问业务。重阳投资及重阳投资创始人裘 国根、法定代表人王庆、总裁汤进喜、合伙人舒泰峰等全体员工从未开展或授意任何个人或机 构以任何形式从事任何种类的非法荐股、非法集资等非法活动。 重阳投资及全体 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump, highlighting its unexpected developments and the volatility in capital markets, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5] - It notes that while some sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals are thriving, traditional economic sectors remain sluggish [1][4] - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the future of the tariff war and its impact on various assets such as US stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin [1][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the favorable and unfavorable factors affecting Trump's tariff policies, including political support and judicial constraints [4][5][6] - It mentions that the US stock market has shown resilience, with many companies reporting strong earnings despite macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The discussion includes the potential for a basic tariff structure that may evolve into a more normalized state, reflecting the inherent complexities of trade negotiations [8][6] Group 3 - The article analyzes the recent "three kills" scenario in the US market, where the stock market, bond market, and dollar faced declines due to the tariff war [11][12] - It highlights the structural issues within the US economy, including rising debt levels and the challenges of maintaining dollar credibility amidst fiscal policies [11][12][13] - The article argues that while the US faces significant debt challenges, it is not necessarily worse off than other major economies, and the concept of "de-dollarization" is difficult to achieve [13][14] Group 4 - The article discusses the impact of the tariff war on the Chinese capital market, noting that the direct exposure of Chinese companies to the US market has decreased significantly [23][22] - It highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy and capital markets, suggesting that the current market dynamics are less affected by the tariff war compared to previous years [23][22] - The article emphasizes the ongoing structural changes within the Chinese economy, particularly the shift towards innovation and technology sectors [26][27] Group 5 - The article describes the current state of the Chinese stock market as a mix of high-performing sectors and struggling traditional industries, referred to as "half sea water, half fire" [26][27] - It points out that the real estate market's adjustment has been a significant factor affecting the overall economy, but there are signs of recovery and new growth opportunities in innovative sectors [27][28] - The article concludes that the market's future performance will depend on the balance between traditional and innovative sectors, with a focus on value and growth strategies [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity, indicating a clear intention to release short-term liquidity in response to market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: PBOC's Actions and Market Impact - On June 6, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan with a three-month term, marking the first time the central bank has announced such an operation at the beginning of the month [1]. - The announcement aims to enhance market communication and stabilize market expectations, with the bank's willingness to release liquidity increasing as speculative demand in the bond market declines [1][2]. - The 10-year and 30-year government bond futures trading volume has significantly decreased, reflecting a reduced willingness to speculate on long-term interest rates [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Pressure and Seasonal Factors - June faces significant liquidity pressure due to the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 200 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), along with 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates maturing, which is a historical monthly high [2]. - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for credit issuance, and the government is expected to accelerate the use of funds for debt replacement, further exacerbating liquidity fluctuations [2]. - The PBOC's actions are expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the funding environment, as indicated by the decline in the 7-day repo rate to around 1.5%, closer to the current policy rate of 1.4% [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The PBOC's proactive approach in announcing reverse repurchase operations enhances the transparency of monetary policy and is likely to support stock market valuations [2]. - The continuous upgrade in the PBOC's expectation management is expected to foster a more favorable risk appetite in the capital markets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and wisdom, highlighting its role in enhancing understanding and decision-making in various contexts, including business and personal life [2][3][7]. Group 1: Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Game Theory: Strategy Interaction, Information, and Incentives," which aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of game theory through accessible language and relatable examples [10][12]. - The book is structured into four parts: synchronous one-shot games, repeated games, sequential games, and games with incomplete information, allowing readers to progressively grasp the concepts [25][28]. Group 2: Game Theory Insights - Game theory is described as a study of decision-making in interactive situations, applicable to various real-life scenarios, from international relations to everyday interactions [13][14]. - The article presents three illustrative cases that demonstrate game theory principles, such as the importance of trust and cooperation in repeated interactions, the necessity of monitoring in collaborative efforts, and strategic decision-making in competitive environments [15][18][21]. Group 3: Author Background - The author, Xia Dawei, is a professor and doctoral supervisor with extensive experience in teaching game theory in various executive education programs, contributing to the accessibility of complex concepts [29][30].