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巴菲特的经验主义传统,芒格的理性主义残存︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-05-19 06:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting investment philosophies of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, emphasizing Munger's more aggressive and rationalist approach compared to Buffett's experience-based skepticism [2][19]. Group 1: Investment Philosophies - Munger's investment style often challenges traditional experience-based methods, as seen in his investments in companies like BYD and Alibaba, which Buffett does not endorse [2][19]. - The article outlines two main philosophical approaches in investing: rationalism, which seeks to create a perfect explanatory system for market behavior, and empiricism, which relies on real-world experience and observation [12][13]. Group 2: Rationalism - Rationalism is characterized by a belief in knowledge derived from logical reasoning and innate ideas, as exemplified by philosophers like Descartes and Spinoza [8][9]. - The article highlights that many investment theories, particularly technical analysis, are rooted in rationalist principles, aiming to explain market movements through established frameworks [10][11]. Group 3: Empiricism - Empiricism, led by thinkers like Bacon, emphasizes knowledge gained from experience and observation, often using inductive reasoning to form theories [13][14]. - The limitations of empiricism are noted, particularly in investment contexts where past experiences may not apply to future scenarios, leading to potential risks [14][15]. Group 4: Skepticism - Skepticism, particularly as articulated by David Hume, questions the reliability of causal relationships, suggesting that what is perceived as causation may simply be correlation [15][16]. - Buffett embodies this skeptical approach, focusing on businesses he understands and avoiding complex financial models that rely on unproven assumptions [18][19]. Group 5: Practical Implications - The article concludes that while rationalism may attract financial elites seeking comprehensive systems, empiricism aligns more closely with the practical realities of high-risk investment activities [21][22]. - A successful investment strategy may not require exhaustive knowledge of all market dynamics but rather a focus on actionable insights derived from experience [22].
卖者尽责,买者自负︱5·15全国投资者保护宣传日
重阳投资· 2025-05-16 06:33
授资者是 保护自身合法权益的 3E 0.0 p 本材料内容仅代表原创方或原作者的分析、推测与判断,登载于此仅出于传递信息和投资者教育之目的, 并不意味着重阳投资赞同其观点或证实其描述,也不代表重阳投资与原创方或原作者有任何代理或合作关 系。对本文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性,重阳投资不作任何明确或隐含 的声明或保证,且不承担信息传递的任何直接或间接责任。相关信息仅供参考,不构成广告、销售要约, 或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料内容中引用的任何实体、品牌、商品等不代表重阳投资 的实际操作。因基金产品投资限制、投资组合调整和交易成本等多种因素,重阳投资的实际操作有可能与 本材料中得出的结论不同。 本材料并不考虑任何阅读者的特定投资需求、投资目标或风险承受能力。阅读者在投资之前,应当仔细阅 读产品法律文件和风险揭示书,充分认识产品的风险收益特征和产品特性,并充分考虑自身的风险承受能 力,理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策。 ▲ 向上滑动阅览【 免责声明】 本材料文字及图片版权归原创方或原作者所有,上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司(简称"重阳投资")转载 文章已获原创方或原作者授权。 如您对 ...
如何解读5月12日公布的《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-05-16 06:33
Q: 请问重阳投资, 如何解读5月12日公布的《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 ? A: 5月12日,中美双方联合公布《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,双方承诺互相取消 91%的关 税,互相暂停 24%的关税90天,仅保留4月2日以来10%的对等关税,双方一致同意建立中美 经贸磋商机制,就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。声明公布后,今年以来美方对华加征关税 暂时降为30%(包括20%的芬太尼关税和10%对等关税),中方对美加征关税降为10%。关 税谈判结果大超市场预期,4月2日以来的中美关税战暂时告一段落。 公众号改变了推送规则, 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中, ▲向上滑动阅览 【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司(简称"重阳投资")原创并编辑发布,仅限于提供信息和投资者 教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道(例如:万得、彭博)和内部研究成果,相关信息 被认为是可靠的,但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息仅供参 考,不构成广告、销售要约,或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实体、品 牌、商品等仅作为研究分析对象使用,不代表重阳投资的 ...
投资理财不受骗,查清资质是关键︱5·15全国投资者保护宣传日
重阳投资· 2025-05-15 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of staying informed about investment opportunities and market trends, highlighting the role of research and analysis in making sound investment decisions [2]. Group 1 - The article discusses the recent changes in the public account push rules, which may affect the visibility of articles in the information flow [2]. - It encourages readers to engage with the content through sharing, liking, and marking the account as a favorite to enhance connection and visibility [2]. Group 2 - The company expresses its commitment to being present with its audience and providing valuable insights into investment opportunities [2].
【有本好书送给你】华为鸿蒙背后,真实的破晓之路
重阳投资· 2025-05-14 08:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development and strategic decisions surrounding Huawei's HarmonyOS, particularly the debate between adopting a dual-framework or a single-framework approach in response to U.S. sanctions and the need for an independent operating system [9][34]. Group 1: Huawei's Challenges and Responses - In 2020, Huawei faced severe sanctions from the U.S., which restricted its access to essential hardware and software, leading to a critical need for an independent operating system [11][28]. - The sanctions forced Huawei to consider alternatives to Android, with internal discussions focusing on whether to develop a dual-framework system that retains compatibility with Android or to pursue a completely independent single-framework system [12][15][20]. Group 2: Dual-Framework vs. Single-Framework Debate - The dual-framework approach allows for compatibility with Android, which many within Huawei believe is necessary for maintaining user experience and market presence [13][17]. - Conversely, proponents of the single-framework argue that true independence and innovation can only be achieved by completely separating from Android, despite the significant investment and risk involved [14][18][20]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions and Developments - By mid-2021, Huawei's management recognized the urgency of developing a single-framework system, leading to a restructuring of teams to focus on this goal [30][31]. - The decision to pursue a single-framework system was solidified with a three-step strategy aimed at creating a robust architecture, enhancing user experience, and fostering a thriving ecosystem [31][32]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The launch of HarmonyOS 2.0 in June 2021 was met with positive reception, with significant upgrades occurring across devices, indicating a successful transition towards Huawei's independent operating system [25][26]. - Despite the challenges, Huawei's commitment to developing HarmonyOS reflects a broader strategy to establish a self-sufficient technological ecosystem in the face of geopolitical pressures [21][29].
对话王庆:个人明星还是团队合力?一期讲透多基金经理共管模式
重阳投资· 2025-05-13 08:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of a multi-manager co-management model in the asset management industry, particularly highlighting the "重阳S4" model adopted by 重阳投资, which emphasizes collaboration among multiple fund managers to enhance investment performance and mitigate risks [1][4]. Summary by Sections Introduction to "重阳S4" - "重阳S4" refers to a model where multiple fund managers jointly manage the same fund through a divided management approach, allowing each manager to operate independently within their designated segments [2][3]. Global Context and Historical Background - The multi-manager co-management model is prevalent among leading hedge funds globally, such as Bridgewater and Millennium, and was initially pioneered by Capital Group in the U.S. public fund sector in 1958 [2][4]. Development Trends in Private Equity - New or short-lived private equity funds often rely on a single fund manager or CIO, but for long-term success, firms must transition to a sustainable and replicable model, with the multi-manager approach being a proven strategy [3][4]. Adoption of the Model in China - 重阳投资 is noted as one of the first private equity firms in China to implement the multi-manager co-management model, adapting to industry trends and leveraging its early establishment and talent development [4][5]. Key Elements of the "重阳S4" Model - The successful implementation of the co-management model requires four essential elements: top talent (Swordsman), effective collaboration (Synergy), a robust system (System), and excellent performance (Superiority) [5][6]. Talent Development - Fund managers in the co-management model are highly qualified, having undergone rigorous training for approximately ten years, which is crucial for the model's success [6][9]. Collaboration Mechanisms - Effective collaboration among fund managers is facilitated by shared investment philosophies, trust, and long-term working relationships, creating a synergistic effect [6][9]. Systematic Support - A comprehensive system supports the co-management model, including a structured talent development process, investment decision-making frameworks, and robust IT systems for operational efficiency [9][10]. Future Outlook - 重阳投资 aims to continue evolving its co-management model and anticipates that more private equity firms will adopt similar structures in the coming years, contributing to the industry's growth [11].
18年年化33%!《滚雪球》作者详解巴菲特一笔鲜为人知的个人投资,完整还原他的真实决策逻辑︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-05-12 06:59
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes Warren Buffett's unique investment philosophy, focusing on risk assessment and the importance of maintaining a margin of safety rather than relying on complex financial models or predictions [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett prioritizes evaluating potential disaster risks in investments, rejecting opportunities with significant risks immediately [3][10]. - He sets a baseline initial return rate of 15%, aiming for reasonable odds rather than excessive greed [3][9]. - Continuous learning and knowledge accumulation are crucial to Buffett's decision-making process, allowing for quick and accurate judgments [3][8]. Group 2: Key Investment Concepts - The article outlines four core concepts in value investing: intrinsic value, ignoring market volatility, the drawbacks of excessive trading and diversification, and the importance of a margin of safety [7]. - Buffett's investment decisions are characterized by a focus on a few critical factors rather than complex financial models, emphasizing sales growth and cost advantages [9][10]. Group 3: Case Study - Midcontinent Tab Card Company - The case study illustrates Buffett's investment in Midcontinent Tab Card Company, highlighting his initial rejection due to perceived disaster risks when the company was a startup challenging IBM [9]. - After the company demonstrated success in the market, Buffett reconsidered and invested, applying his principles of risk assessment and expected returns [9][10]. - The investment yielded an annualized return of 33% over 18 years, showcasing Buffett's effective application of his investment philosophy [9]. Group 4: Learning and Habits - Buffett's success is attributed to his diligent work habits and a deep-rooted understanding of investment principles acquired from a young age [7][8]. - He emphasizes the importance of avoiding bad habits and cultivating good ones, as they shape long-term success [7][8]. - The article suggests that Buffett's unique traits and disciplined approach to investing are key factors in his sustained success over decades [12][13].
如何解读5月7日金融监管部门发布会公布的各项政策︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-05-09 06:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial policies announced by Chinese regulatory authorities aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting economic growth in response to external pressures such as the tariff war [1][3]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have implemented a series of monetary policy measures, including a 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut, providing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 10 BP reduction in policy interest rates [1]. - The reduction in public housing loan rates by 25 BP and the simultaneous lowering of various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 BP are expected to lower overall financing costs for society [1]. Support for Foreign Trade and Small Enterprises - A targeted increase of 300 billion yuan in re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises has been announced, along with measures to support foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs [2]. - These initiatives are crucial for stabilizing employment and boosting consumer confidence, particularly for small and micro enterprises facing challenges due to the tariff war [2]. Financial Support for Technological Innovation - The policies include an additional 300 billion yuan in re-loans for technological innovation, the creation of risk-sharing tools for technology bonds, and encouragement for commercial banks to increase investment in technology [2]. - These actions aim to foster a more favorable financial environment for companies with global competitiveness in the technology sector [2]. Overall Economic Impact - The combination of supply and demand-side policies is expected to enhance China's economic growth momentum and market confidence, reflecting the authorities' awareness of the economic situation amid the tariff war [3]. - The article expresses optimism about the stock market, citing a commitment to maintaining stability and improving investor returns [3].
【有本好书送给你】芒格传:百年纪念版
重阳投资· 2025-05-08 06:36
重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话:"我这一生当中,未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没有。沃伦(巴菲 特)的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说,我就是一本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道,阅读,一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在,我们希望和你一起,把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期专栏,我们依旧聊书,可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题,希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书,根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽,时间荒荒,阅读生出思考的力量,愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向,四通八达,尽情徜徉。 提示:本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣,欢迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第283期:《芒格传(百年纪念版)》 【美】珍妮特•洛尔(Janet Lowe) 著 杨天南 译 中国人民大学出版社 推荐人 营销编辑段雯昕 2025年4月 互动话题: 结合本书 ,请谈谈芒格对你的影响。 留言时间:2024年5月8 日 - 2025年 5月14日 (鼓励原创,只要你的内容足够优秀,期期选中也有可能哦) 筛选及书籍 ...
关税战有解吗?“帝国特惠制”的历史启示︱重阳来信2025年5月
重阳投资· 2025-05-07 07:14
致尊敬的您: (一) 1932年7月21日,来自不列颠、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、南非、爱 尔兰、纽芬兰、印度和南罗德西亚等地的代表在加拿大首都渥太华召 开了一次经济会议,这次会议一直持续到8月20日,史称"渥太华帝国 会议"。 会议主要围绕贸易问题进行了一系列谈判,和想象中高大上的政治谈 判不同,渥太华会议的现场堪称菜市场。加拿大代表抓着咸鱼和木材 出口问题,怒斥英国代表、前首相斯坦利·鲍德温为什么主张从苏联进 口咸鱼,而鲍德温则对新西兰首相科茨大发牢骚,因为新西兰在英国 出售牛油和奶油的价格甚至低于在新西兰本土的价格,科茨也不甘示 弱,愤怒声讨澳大利亚竟敢用低于成本价的方式在新西兰倾销牛肉, 而澳大利亚则对印度的长绒棉让澳大利亚的种植园血本无归大为不 满。大英帝国内部也充斥着对贸易问题的撕扯,各地区代表为自身利 益争得面红耳赤。最终在会议落幕时,英国和各个自治领签订了12份 双边贸易条约,形成了著名的"帝国特惠制"。 帝国特惠制的核心包括英国给予来自英帝国内部的一些特定商品以数 量和税率上的优惠,对来自帝国外的相关商品加强进口控制或提高进 口关税;其它帝国成员国则许诺在增加进口关税的同时给予英国商品 例外 ...