Q： 请问重阳投资，如何解读10月通胀数据？ A： 11月9日，国家统计局公布10月通胀数据。10月CPI（消费者价格指数）同比增长0.2%，7月 以来再次转正，其中扣除食品和能源后的核心CPI同比增长1.2%，连续6个月改善；PPI（生产者价 格指数）同比-2.1%，环比增长0.1%，今年以来首次环比转正。 从分项数据看，CPI回暖是基数效应、节日消费以及黄金价格共同作用的结果。 去年10月开始食品 和能源价格同比开始回落，低基数效应在今年10月开始显现，带动食品价格和能源分项同比收窄， 但基数效应不明显的猪肉价格同比依然为-16%，维持低位。核心CPI分项中，服务价格同比从0.6% 上升至0.8%，环比强于季节性，主要原因是国庆中秋双节叠加导致出行旅游需求较旺，宾馆和机 票价格分别上涨8.6%和4.5%。黄金价格上行带来的金饰品价格上涨仍在持续，带动其他用品和服 务分项连续高增。根据中金公司估算，出行服务价格上行和金价上涨贡献了核心CPI 0.2%增幅的 0.13%和0.1%。而申万宏源测算，剔除金饰品后其他核心商品CPI较上月并未继续上涨。 PPI的改善主要来自有色金属。 10月以来，国际定价大宗商品涨 ...

重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 百年资管巨头柏基的投资哲学 专注长期，聚焦成长 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第308期：《 柏基投资之道 》 李正 韩圣海 著 湛庐文化/浙江教育出版社 推荐人 编辑林他 2025年11月 互动话题： 结合本书， 请谈谈你对"成长投资"的理解 。 留言时间：2024年11月12 日 - 2025年 11月19日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选 ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 编者按 从来没有哪一年沃伦·巴菲特的感恩节动态让人如此期待，在他决定把每年股东信也连同伯克希尔的 权杖交给格雷格·阿贝尔之后，大家的沮丧可想而知，来自奥马哈先知的福音，越来越少了…… 美国时间 11 月 10 日，伯克希尔的官网如约刊登了巴菲特的感恩节信，并宣布了一则动态：当天， 巴菲特将 1800 股 A 类股份转换为 270 万股 B 类股份，并将这些 B 股捐赠给旗下四个家族基金 会： 150 万股捐给苏珊 · 汤普森 · 巴菲特基金会，另外三家基金会 —— 谢伍德基金会、霍华德 ·G· 巴菲特基金会和诺沃基金会，各获得 40 万股。 这些捐赠已于当日完成交付。 跟每年 2 月的股东信不同，感恩节信弥漫着人情味，虽然也谈到伯克希尔，但这次生意确实谈的有 点少。这部分要等待明年 2 月的阿贝尔股东信了。巴菲特再次强调说，"我实在想不出有什么人，无 论是 CEO 、管理顾问、学者还是政府官员，比格雷格更适合来管理你我的资金。" 他还说，"要是运气好点，伯克希尔在接下来的 100 年里，只需要经历五六位 CEO 就够了。特别希 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tightening liquidity in the US repurchase market, highlighting the significant widening of the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Rate (ONRRP) to 47 basis points, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020, and the surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to $50 billion, marking a new high since its establishment in 2021 [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Liquidity Tightening - The liquidity tightening is attributed to a combination of the US government shutdown and month-end factors, with the usage of overnight reverse repos declining sharply after the Federal Reserve halted interest rate hikes and accelerated balance sheet reduction [3]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion, significantly above the acceptable level of $850 billion, further draining liquidity from the repo market [3]. - The combination of reduced liquidity in the repo market and banks being more cautious in external financing due to regulatory requirements at month-end has led to the rapid widening of the SOFR and ONRRP spread [3]. Group 2: Current Market Impact - Despite the tightening liquidity in the repo market, there has not been a substantial impact on other financial markets, as the daily limit for the SRF is $500 billion, and the Federal Reserve can quickly respond to liquidity needs [4]. - Recent data shows that the SOFR and ONRRP spread has narrowed to 25 basis points, indicating a decrease in the usage of the SRF [4]. - The performance of risk assets has been more reflective of their inherent vulnerabilities, with notable declines in global risk asset prices, but short-term fluctuations in the money market are not expected to have a direct and lasting impact on stock prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and understanding, drawing inspiration from the thoughts of renowned investors like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Introduction to the Book - The featured book is "Who Will Dominate the Future of the Japanese Economy?" by Richard Katz, which discusses the ongoing transformation and recovery of the Japanese economy [8][11]. Japanese Economic Context - Japan's economy has faced significant challenges since the burst of its economic bubble in the early 1990s, leading to a prolonged period of stagnation known as the "lost decades" [11][12]. - As of 2024, China's GDP is approximately six times that of Japan when adjusted for purchasing power parity, although Japan's per capita GDP remains higher [11]. Recent Economic Developments - Post-COVID-19, Japan has shown signs of economic recovery, maintaining positive growth since 2021 with an average annual growth rate of nearly 1% and an unemployment rate below 3% [12]. - The inflation rate, measured by CPI, has approached 3%, surpassing the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, indicating an end to the long-standing deflationary period [12]. Key Themes of the Book - Katz explores the critical conflicts shaping Japan's economic future, particularly the competition between dynamic startups (referred to as "gazelle" companies) and established large corporations [19]. - The book highlights the need for Japan to adapt its economic and social systems to foster innovation and competition, moving away from outdated practices that hinder growth [18][19]. Structural Challenges - The traditional employment practices in Japan, such as lifetime employment and seniority-based pay, are identified as barriers to economic flexibility and innovation [14][15]. - The book discusses the resistance to change within the economic system, where established interests may impede the growth of innovative companies that threaten their market position [15][16]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The relationship between the government and the market has evolved, with a shift from direct industrial policy to a focus on competitive policy to drive economic growth [16]. - The article notes that the real estate market and banking reforms post-bubble have been crucial for Japan's economic recovery, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to market stabilization [17][18]. Conclusion - The insights from Katz's work are deemed valuable for understanding the complexities of Japan's economic landscape and the potential lessons for other developing economies, particularly those with similar growth trajectories [18][19].

芒格曾说： "如果既能理解复利的威力，又能理解获得复利的艰难，就 等于抓住了理解许多事情的精髓。" 复利的威力大家已经了解，但是复 利的艰难是什么呢？摩根·豪泽尔的书里揭示了一些重要的答案。 致尊敬的您： 摩根·豪泽尔又推出了一本新著《金钱的艺术》，它与前两本书《金钱 心理学》和《一如既往》构成了豪泽尔的"金钱三部曲"，豪泽尔的书 里没有什么深奥难懂的理论或公式，但他非常善于用讲故事的方式娓 娓道来，读起来如沐春风，轻巧地揭示出他想要表达的主题。 三本书的主题一脉相 承，都是关于财富、 人性与幸福，而核心 是关于财富复利与人 生复利的秘密。爱因 斯坦说复利是世界上 第八大奇迹，或者说复利是所有投资人心中的圣杯。我们做了一个测 算，假设年化投资收益率10%，想要达到1个亿的财富，倒推不同的剩 余投资年限需要多少相应的本金。结果显示，如果你是一个中年人， 还有30年投资年限，需要的本金是573万元，但是如果你是个二三十岁 的年轻人，还有60年的投资年限，那么本金只需要33万。这就是复利 的魔方，看起来并不难以实现，但是现实中却鲜有人能够实现。这背 后到底隐藏着什么秘密？本期重阳来信我们借豪泽尔的智慧一起来做 一个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to resume the trading of government bonds after a 10-month suspension, indicating a positive shift in the bond market and a need for liquidity support [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Resuming Bond Trading - The resumption is attributed to a phase of alleviated interest rate risks in the bond market and the necessity to provide liquidity support [3]. - The initial suspension in January was due to overly optimistic market sentiment and rapid declines in government bond yields, which increased interest rate risks and widened the China-U.S. interest rate differential [3]. - Since July, a shift in risk appetite has led to capital outflows from the bond market, causing a rapid increase in the 10-year government bond yield from 1.6% to over 1.8%, stabilizing around this level for a month [3]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, has created a favorable context for the PBOC to restart bond trading [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The resumption of bond trading signals a defined upper limit for bond yields, suggesting limited room for further increases in the 10-year government bond yield [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at enhancing the financial function of government bonds and improving the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4]. - The recent rise in short-term bond yields has led to a narrowing of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, indicating a potential steepening of the yield curve [4]. - In the short term, the PBOC's bond purchases may focus on the shorter end of the yield curve, with the long end requiring further observation of the scale of bond purchases and equity market performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and self-reflection in understanding wealth and personal values, suggesting that true wealth transcends mere financial metrics [2][30]. Group 1: Importance of Reading - The company promotes reading as a vital path for growth, inspired by the views of notable figures like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett [2][3][4]. - Each issue of the column will include book reviews, lists, or excerpts, encouraging interaction through comments [4][5][6]. Group 2: Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Wealth Psychology: 50 Ideas for a Prosperous Life" by Daniel Crosby, which explores the relationship between one's attitude towards money and their level of wealth [8][10]. - The interactive topic encourages readers to share their views on wealth, fostering community engagement [10]. Group 3: Themes of Wealth - The narrative discusses the dangers of greed and the moral implications of wealth accumulation, illustrated through the story of a man whose greed leads to personal tragedy [14][12]. - It argues that true wealth is not merely numerical but encompasses emotional and experiential richness, urging readers to reflect on their life choices [19][30]. Group 4: Life Reflections - The article highlights a Gallup survey indicating that 70% of Americans set goals for the new year, primarily focusing on health and financial targets [20][21]. - It contrasts these goals with the regrets of those nearing the end of life, emphasizing the importance of relationships and personal fulfillment over financial success [22][26]. Group 5: PERMA Model - The article introduces the PERMA model, which includes Positive Emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, and Accomplishment, as a framework for enhancing happiness and life satisfaction [27][28]. - It encourages individuals to identify areas for improvement within this model to foster a more fulfilling life [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding current market conditions and the unpredictability of the future, advocating for a cautious yet opportunistic investment approach, as articulated by Howard Marks [4][92]. Group 1: Howard Marks' Background and Philosophy - Howard Marks grew up in a family shaped by the Great Depression, instilling in him a cautious mindset and the importance of risk management [12][17]. - He initially pursued accounting but shifted to finance at Wharton, where he developed a keen interest in market dynamics and the concept of impermanence [16][17]. - Marks' investment philosophy is heavily influenced by the idea of "probability thinking," focusing on understanding the current market position rather than making predictions about the future [43][91]. Group 2: The "Beautiful 50" Experience - Marks' early career at Citibank coincided with the "Beautiful 50" phenomenon, where investors believed in the infallibility of top companies, leading to significant losses when the bubble burst [25][26]. - This experience taught him two lifelong principles: the dangers of overconfidence and the importance of being prepared for market corrections [26][29]. Group 3: Transition to Distressed Investing - After being reassigned to the bond department, Marks began exploring high-yield bonds, which eventually led to the establishment of a distressed debt fund at TCW [32][35]. - The distressed investing strategy capitalizes on market overreactions, where bond prices plummet due to excessive pessimism, creating investment opportunities [49][50]. Group 4: Formation of Oaktree Capital - In 1995, Marks co-founded Oaktree Capital, focusing on distressed investing with a strong emphasis on risk control and consistency [59][61]. - The firm gained a reputation for its disciplined approach, often limiting fundraising to maintain high returns for investors [56][62]. Group 5: Market Cycles and Investment Strategy - Marks highlights the cyclical nature of markets, noting that understanding one's position in the cycle is crucial for making informed investment decisions [90][91]. - He advocates for a long-term investment strategy, discouraging frequent trading and market timing, emphasizing the importance of staying invested [92].

Core Viewpoint - The third quarter economic data indicates that China's economy is maintaining resilience, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters and 4.8% for the third quarter, driven primarily by the production sector [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth - The industrial production maintained a rapid growth rate, with industrial added value increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in September, up by 1.3% from the previous month [2]. - Exports showed improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in September, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [2]. - The production sector is identified as the most important driver of economic growth this year, supported by policy measures and seasonal effects [2]. Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - Fixed asset investment has continued to decline, with a year-to-date decrease of 0.5%, primarily due to weakened real estate and infrastructure investments [3]. - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3% year-on-year in September, marking a 0.4 percentage point decline from the previous month, continuing a four-month downward trend [3]. - Service consumption remains a bright spot, with total service consumption growth rising by 0.1% to 5.2%, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth in the third quarter [3]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Policy Needs - There are evident signs of weakening in housing prices, with all 70 major cities reporting declines in second-hand housing prices in September [4]. - The GDP deflator index stands at -1.07%, remaining negative for over ten consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing structural issues [4]. - To support economic growth for the upcoming year, it is necessary to further implement stability policies, especially considering the high base from last year's growth [4].