Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Hong Kong dollar liquidity changes on the Hong Kong stock market, emphasizing the relationship between liquidity management by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Hong Kong Dollar Liquidity Management - On June 26, the HKMA sold US dollars and bought HK dollars to withdraw 9.42 billion HKD from the market due to the HKD exchange rate reaching the weak end of the peg [1]. - Following this, on July 2, the HKMA withdrew an additional 20.018 billion HKD, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity in response to market conditions [1]. - The HKMA operates under a linked exchange rate system, maintaining the HKD to USD exchange rate within a specified range, which influences liquidity and interest rates in the banking system [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The liquidity withdrawal is seen as a response to an earlier excessive liquidity injection in May, where 129.4 billion HKD was injected into the market, leading to a significant increase in interbank liquidity [2]. - The HKMA's actions reflect a dynamic balance in response to changing investor confidence in the USD and the influx of southbound capital, which has affected the demand for HKD [2]. - The article notes that the short-term interest rates (Hibor) remained low for an extended period, indicating a misjudgment in the banking system's demand for HKD [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for HKD and Hong Kong Stocks - Despite the liquidity recovery, the article suggests that HKD liquidity will remain relatively abundant, with the primary influence on the Hong Kong stock market being the underlying economic fundamentals [3]. - The historical correlation between Hong Kong stocks and domestic economic indicators is emphasized, suggesting that Hibor's rise will primarily impact market sentiment rather than fundamentals [3]. - The article expresses optimism for the medium to long-term performance of Hong Kong stocks, driven by improved shareholder returns and an increase in high-quality companies amid supportive growth policies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and continuous learning in the investment field, highlighting the value of Benjamin Graham's "Security Analysis" as a timeless guide for investors [2][12][41]. Group 1: Importance of Reading - The article references Charlie Munger's belief that wisdom cannot be attained without reading, underscoring the significance of reading as a growth path [2][3]. - The publication aims to encourage readers to maintain their reading habits and engage in discussions about selected books [4][5]. Group 2: Overview of "Security Analysis" - "Security Analysis," co-authored by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, is described as a foundational text for value investing, providing principles for evaluating stocks and bonds [12][41]. - The book has remained popular since its first publication in 1934, even during significant financial crises, and is referred to as the "bible of value investing" [12][41]. Group 3: Value Investing Principles - The article outlines that value investing involves purchasing securities at prices below their intrinsic value, often summarized as "buying a dollar for fifty cents" [24]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to balance multiple objectives, such as generating returns, preserving capital, and maintaining liquidity [12][19]. Group 4: Market Inefficiencies - The article discusses how market inefficiencies can lead to mispricing of securities, creating opportunities for value investors to buy undervalued stocks [19][20]. - It highlights that stock prices are often influenced by investor emotions rather than fundamental analysis, leading to volatility [19][20]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to maintain discipline and patience, particularly during market downturns, as these periods can present buying opportunities [22][24]. - The article stresses the importance of conducting thorough research and analysis to identify undervalued securities and to avoid being swayed by market sentiment [31][32]. Group 6: Valuation Techniques - Various methods for assessing a company's value are discussed, including discounted cash flow analysis and evaluating market multiples [33][34]. - The article notes that understanding a company's future cash flow potential is crucial for accurate valuation, despite the inherent challenges in forecasting [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a highly differentiated structure in the first half of the year, with sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption performing well, while traditional sectors lag behind. The underlying reasons for this divergence and the outlook for the second half are discussed [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary drivers of the current market dynamics are macroeconomic factors and technological innovation, with China's aging population and deflationary pressures resembling Japan's past, but with stronger innovation capabilities [7][8]. - The traditional industries are still in a phase of low adjustment, while emerging industries, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, are thriving [8][9]. - The market is experiencing a revaluation of Chinese assets, with sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and technology being the focus of this revaluation [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The market's volatility in April due to the Trump tariff war highlighted the importance of distinguishing between short-term fluctuations and fundamental risks to companies' core competitiveness [9][10]. - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining high positions in promising stocks during market downturns, as short-term volatility can present buying opportunities for fundamentally strong companies [10][11]. Group 3: Future Market Trends - The market is expected to continue experiencing both internal differentiation within sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as potential style shifts towards undervalued sectors [17][18]. - The transition from a "beta" driven market to one focused on "alpha" suggests that investors should prioritize individual stock performance over broad sector trends [14][20]. Group 4: Innovative Pharmaceuticals Outlook - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has strong long-term fundamentals, with significant clinical data and increasing international recognition, indicating a promising future despite recent adjustments [22][23]. - The sector is expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and a growing international market presence, with many companies still undervalued despite recent gains [24][26]. - Identifying true leaders in the innovative pharmaceutical space will be crucial, as not all companies will perform equally well in the future [27].

Core Viewpoint - The current policy-making approach in the U.S. is deemed highly irrational, with significant misjudgments regarding tail risks and economic policies [1][35]. Group 1: Tail Risk and Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly misinterpreting noise as signals, leading to a worse understanding of tail risks [6][9]. - Tail risk hedging can be effective if executed properly, especially in extreme scenarios [6][7]. - Many traditional strategies fail to mitigate risks during black swan events, while tail risk strategies tend to perform more reliably [7][8]. Group 2: Structural Economic Issues - The U.S. faces severe structural problems, including a growing fiscal deficit exacerbated by high interest rates [14][16]. - Wealthier nations typically experience slower economic growth, which is compounded by increasing debt levels [15][17]. - Current policies are seen as contradictory to basic economic principles, leading to inefficient resource allocation [17][38]. Group 3: Dollar and Gold as Reserve Assets - The reliability of the U.S. dollar as a store of value is diminishing, with a notable shift towards gold as a preferred reserve asset among central banks [21][27]. - The rise in gold prices reflects a growing skepticism about the dollar's stability, particularly after geopolitical events [24][25]. Group 4: Systemic Risk and Financial Institutions - The shift of systemic risk from banks to hedge funds is viewed positively, as hedge funds operate under a "skin in the game" principle, promoting more rational decision-making [28][30]. - The increasing lending from banks to non-bank institutions raises concerns about potential risk transmission [33][34]. Group 5: Policy Critique - Current U.S. policies, particularly regarding tariffs and immigration, are criticized for lacking coherent logic and failing to consider secondary effects [35][41]. - The reliance on artificial intelligence to solve labor shortages is seen as unrealistic, with current policies ignoring the immediate consequences of labor supply disruptions [47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance by the central bank to allow the appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar index and the improving macroeconomic conditions in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Actions - Since May, the central bank has gradually relaxed the fluctuation range of the USD/RMB exchange rate, lowering the middle rate to guide the RMB's appreciation. From May 9 to June 24, the USD/RMB middle rate decreased from 7.2095 to 7.1656, resulting in a cumulative appreciation of 439 pips for the RMB [1]. - The onshore RMB has appreciated nearly 700 pips, while the offshore RMB has appreciated about 650 pips during the same period [1]. Group 2: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The central bank's guidance for RMB appreciation is largely due to the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which has been influenced by the deteriorating fiscal situation of the US government and declining market confidence in the dollar [2]. - A recent Bank of America global fund manager survey indicated that the proportion of fund managers bearish on the dollar is nearing a 20-year high, suggesting that a weak dollar is becoming a consensus in macro trading this year [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The central bank's tolerance for RMB appreciation has increased, as macro policies in China have remained stable, and asset prices have begun to recover. The international trade situation has improved, allowing the central bank to gradually guide the RMB's appreciation [3]. - With the enhancement of Chinese enterprises' international competitiveness and the continuous introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to increase, making further RMB appreciation likely [3].

6月26日， 由证券时报主办、长江证券协办的"2025金长江私募基金发展论坛暨第十届中国私募基金 金长江奖颁奖典礼"在武汉成功举办， 重阳投资荣膺 2016年以来，证券时报携手长江证券推出的"中国金长江私募基金发展高峰论坛"，每年都汇集了众多金 融行业领袖和私募行业领军人物参与，为中国私募基金行业健康发展出谋献策、贡献力量。同时，主办 方力求通过客观而公允的评价体系，筛选出在本轮市场波动中表现优异的私募管理机构、基金经理和私 募产品，并让这些优异者得以充分展示，以推广其在投资方面的先进理念和成功经验，提升投资者财富 管理和风险识别能力。 公众号改变了推送规则， 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中， 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ， 能让我们之间的距离更近一步， 为了更好地相遇， 星标置顶 也是极好的。 重阳投资，始终和你在一起。 十年来，"金长江"见证了一批私募从小到大的成长，也见证了行业间的起起落落。在私募业迈入严监管 时代的背景下，私募基金唯有不断的提升投资能力和风控能力，注重公司治理，才能行稳致远。"中国私 募基金金长江奖"已成为中国私募基金业内最具影响力和权威性的奖项之一。 ▲向上滑动阅览 【免责 ...

现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第290期：《 未来之地 》 汤姆·奇弗斯 著 韩潇潇 译 中信出版集团 推荐人 营销编辑张晓萌 2025年6月 互动话题： 结合本书 ， 谈谈你对贝叶斯思维的理解 。 留言时间：2024年6月25 日 - 2025年 7月2日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） 筛选及书籍（单本）寄送：2025年7月3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the power of the compounding effect, illustrating how small, consistent actions can lead to significant long-term results, while also highlighting the common pitfalls of seeking immediate gratification and the importance of perseverance [2][16][39]. Group 1 - The compounding effect is often overlooked due to its subtle beginnings, leading many to abandon their efforts prematurely [16][24]. - A comparison is made between two choices: taking a lump sum of $3 million versus receiving a penny that doubles every day for 31 days, demonstrating the exponential growth potential of the latter choice [18][19]. - The article presents a scenario involving three friends, illustrating how small daily choices can lead to vastly different outcomes over time, emphasizing the importance of consistency and discipline [21][24]. Group 2 - The ripple effect of small negative choices can lead to significant adverse consequences in various aspects of life, as demonstrated through the example of a character named Brad [25][28]. - The article discusses the historical context of success, noting that past generations understood the value of hard work and discipline, which contrasts with the current mindset that often seeks quick fixes [33][34]. - It warns against the "microwave mentality," where individuals expect instant results, and stresses the need for sustained effort to achieve meaningful success [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but indicated a hawkish stance due to revised economic forecasts and increased inflation concerns [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates in 2023 after a 100 basis point cut last year, reflecting a cautious approach towards monetary policy [1] - The economic projections from the Fed have shifted towards stagflation, with lowered GDP growth expectations and increased unemployment and inflation forecasts [1] - The dot plot indicates no change in the median number of rate cuts for the year, but the number of committee members favoring no cuts has increased, suggesting a more cautious outlook [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Concerns - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the resilience of the labor market despite a slowdown, indicating that the Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation risks stemming from tariffs [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting supply chains and price stability, necessitating a restrictive policy stance to manage potential inflationary pressures [2] Group 3: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations suggest that the first rate cut could occur in September if inflation remains weak in the coming months [2] - With Powell's term ending in May 2024 and potential changes in Fed leadership, there is speculation that a more dovish approach may lead to significant rate cuts next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and continuous learning as a pathway to personal and intellectual growth, particularly in the context of navigating the complexities of the modern world and the rise of artificial intelligence [2][3][7]. Group 1: Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Future of Humanity" by Nick Bostrom, which explores the implications of advanced artificial intelligence and the future roles of humanity in a technologically advanced society [9][30]. - The book is described as challenging but rewarding, encouraging readers to engage with diverse perspectives rather than seeking definitive answers [12][30]. Group 2: Interaction and Engagement - The article invites readers to participate in discussions related to the book's themes, specifically focusing on how humanity can develop irreplaceable advantages in the age of intelligence [11][30]. - Readers are encouraged to submit their thoughts and insights, with the potential for selected contributions to receive book giveaways [6][11]. Group 3: Key Themes from the Book - The book discusses five essential tasks for humanity in the age of artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of human identity and purpose beyond mere technological advancement [18][20]. - It highlights the importance of philosophical and theological perspectives alongside scientific and technological considerations in shaping the future of human civilization [15][16]. Group 4: Tasks for Humanity - Task One: "Demystifying Machines" - Humanity must understand and control the capabilities of intelligent machines rather than being awed or fearful of them [20][22]. - Task Two: "Wisdom Elevation" - The focus should shift from knowledge to wisdom, as intelligent machines can handle knowledge tasks, leaving humans to pursue deeper existential questions [22][23]. - Task Three: "Human-Machine Synergy" - The relationship between humans and machines should be viewed as synergistic, where human effort can amplify technological capabilities [25][26]. - Task Four: "Preserving Humanity" - As machines become more advanced, it is crucial to maintain human values and emotions, ensuring that technology serves humanity rather than replacing it [26][27]. - Task Five: "Cultivating Patience" - Emphasizes the need for a calm and reflective approach to the rapid changes brought by technology, focusing on long-term goals rather than immediate results [29].