Core Viewpoint - Beijing continues to relax real estate policies to stimulate demand and support genuine housing needs amid a weakening property market [2][3][4] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The recent policy changes include lowering the social security contribution requirements for non-Beijing residents, allowing families with two or more children to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring Road, reducing the down payment ratio for second homes from 30% to 25%, and eliminating the distinction in commercial loan rates between first and second homes [2] - These adjustments aim to lower the barriers for homebuyers and reduce their costs, thereby supporting real housing demand [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Nationally, the residential property market has shown signs of weakness, with a reported 8.8% year-on-year decline in the total area of residential transactions for the first eleven months of the year, and a nearly 20% drop in new home sales in November alone [3] - In Beijing, the listing prices for second-hand homes have decreased by over 10% year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of price adjustments to stimulate transactions [3] - Despite the overall decline, there is a stable transaction volume in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with an increase in the proportion of low-priced properties sold, suggesting some persistent demand [3] Group 3: Future Expectations - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is evident, with expectations for further policy relaxations in cities like Shanghai [4] - The stability in new and second-hand home transactions is seen as crucial for meeting residents' housing needs and promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4] - If transaction volumes continue to decline, more aggressive measures to stabilize the market are anticipated [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese stock market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, indicating a highly differentiated market structure. The article explores how to seize new opportunities in 2026 from four perspectives: future debate, allocation debate, current debate, and strategy debate [1]. Future Debate: Will China Repeat Japan's Lost Decade? - China is unlikely to follow Japan's trajectory of economic stagnation due to its superior innovation capabilities and irreplaceability in the global market. The historical context shows that Japan's economic decline was significantly influenced by China's rapid rise, which diminished Japan's industrial advantages. Currently, the Chinese market has shifted from being perceived as "uninvestable" to having "strategic allocation value" [5][6][9]. Allocation Debate: Where Will Incremental Funds for the Stock Market Come From? - The incremental funds for the stock market are expected to come from asset reallocation by residents and financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment. For the first time in history, the real estate market is transitioning from a source of capital diversion to a driving force for the stock market, leading to a bull market in Chinese stocks [10][11][12]. High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are the main drivers of this asset reallocation, which is characterized by rational and gradual behavior rather than a rush to invest [11][12][14]. Current Debate: Can AI Capital Expenditure Expectations Be Met? - AI is viewed as one of the most significant technological revolutions since the industrial revolution, but the high profit margins and massive capital expenditures in the industry come with strong macroeconomic assumptions. The article highlights the potential challenges in reconciling the gap between latent demand and effective demand in the AI sector, which may become a critical issue in 2026 [17][19][23]. Strategy Debate: What Directions to Focus On? - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, but investors should temper their return expectations. The strategy emphasizes a defensive approach to preserve the gains from the 2025 bull market while seeking further opportunities. Key sectors to focus on include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing, while also exploring opportunities in consumer, military, and real estate sectors that have been overlooked for a long time [24][25][26][27].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of achieving stable economic growth, stable employment, and a reasonable recovery of prices as key policy goals in China [2] - It discusses the challenges in achieving a reasonable price recovery, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [2] - The article highlights that the current low price environment has been ongoing since 2012, with significant implications for economic policy [8] Group 2 - The article notes that since May 2012, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has diverged from that of Europe and the United States, entering negative territory for an extended period [9] - It explains that the prolonged negative PPI is attributed to factors such as the global commodity price downturn in 2011 and the diminishing effects of large-scale infrastructure investment policies initiated in 2009 [9][12] - The article points out that the structural issues of overcapacity in manufacturing have been a fundamental reason for the persistent low prices [15] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2016-2017, which aimed to address overcapacity and improve the economic structure [12] - It mentions that the trade tensions with the U.S. and the COVID-19 pandemic have further complicated the price recovery process, leading to fluctuations in PPI [14][15] - The article highlights that the current economic situation is characterized by both overcapacity and insufficient effective demand, complicating the path to price recovery [17] Group 4 - The article identifies three main challenges to increasing consumer demand: stagnant wage growth, a rigid income distribution structure, and a declining real estate market [40][43] - It emphasizes the need for fiscal policies that focus on increasing household income and consumption to stimulate demand and support price recovery [48][49] - The article concludes that merely relying on monetary policy is insufficient; a comprehensive approach involving fiscal policy reform is necessary to address the underlying structural issues [56]

A： 在10月数据因政府关门停止公布后，本周美国劳工统计局公布了政府开门后首个就业和通胀 数据。 就业数据显示美国就业形势仍在放缓。 企业调查数据显示，11月美国新增非农就业6.4万人，私人 部门新增就业6.9万人，其中医疗健康行业新增就业6.5万人，仍然是美国新增就业的主要力量。考 虑前几个月的数据下修后，滚动3个月平均新增就业人数2.2万人，数据下滑的趋势没有改变。家庭 调查数据显示，11月失业率录得4.564%，较上月继续上行，超出市场预期。从失业人数分布上 看，22.8万新增失业人数中17.1万来自临时失业，这和在10月落定的政府裁员计划相关，29万来自 二次就业。换言之，失业率的上市主要来自重新进入市场的劳动力人数的增加，这与劳动参与率的 小幅上升相匹配。由于特朗普移民政策的逐步推进，新增就业人数的下滑可能是趋势性的，这也就 意味着失业率数据在美联储决策中所占比重将逐步上升。下半年以来，美国就业市场持续放缓，失 业率数据连续上行，这对维持目前的降息预期是有利的。 通胀数据瑕疵较大，参考意义相对有限。 11月整体CPI数据同比2.74%，核心CPI同比2.63%。由于 10月通胀数据不再公布，根据11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and continuous learning as a pathway to personal growth and wealth accumulation, highlighting the principles outlined in Scott Galloway's book "The Wealth Equation" [2][8][29]. Group 1: Wealth Equation Principles - The wealth equation is defined as Wealth = Focus + (Discipline × Time × Diversification), suggesting that achieving financial freedom requires a combination of these elements [10][29]. - Discipline is described as the ability to control one's actions and decisions, which is essential for reducing debt and fostering wealth-creating behaviors [11][29]. - Focus is crucial for making informed decisions and avoiding distractions, as it shapes the outcomes of one's life and career [13][14]. Group 2: Time Management - Time is portrayed as a valuable resource, especially for young individuals, who often underestimate its significance in wealth accumulation [19][20]. - The concept of compounding is discussed, emphasizing that even small financial gains can accumulate significantly over time, but poor management can lead to losses [20][21]. - The article stresses the importance of sacrificing immediate pleasures for future benefits, highlighting the need for a long-term perspective in financial planning [21][29]. Group 3: Diversification Strategy - Diversification is presented as a defensive strategy to mitigate risks associated with investments, as it limits potential losses from high-risk assets [22][23]. - The article argues that the goal of investing should not be to maximize returns but to create a well-managed portfolio that supports financial freedom [24][29]. - It emphasizes the importance of holding a variety of assets with different risk profiles to balance potential risks and returns [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - Chongyang Investment has been awarded the "Golden Sunshine · Five-Year Outstanding Private Equity Company Award," which reflects both recognition and motivation for the company to continue its commitment to value investment and absolute returns [1][5]. Group 1 - The "Golden Sunshine" award is organized by Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Network, recognized as one of the most authoritative awards in China's capital market due to its long history and significant influence [5]. - Chongyang Investment emphasizes its philosophy of discovering and investing in value, aiming to be a responsible institutional investor that creates stable and long-term returns for its clients [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment funds to achieve long-term success, suggesting that lower volatility often correlates with higher returns [4][7][17]. Fund Performance Analysis - From January 1, 2020, to November 20, 2025, the median return of Chinese equity mutual funds was approximately 44.78%, with an annualized compound return of about 6.45% and a median drawdown of 45.12% [5][6]. - Funds with severe drawdowns (60-80%) accounted for 12.53% of the total, with an average return of 26.8%. In contrast, funds with smaller drawdowns (15-30%) represented 10.25% and achieved an average return of 72.25% [6][7]. - The data indicates that 81.28% of funds experienced drawdowns greater than 30%, with over 50.38% facing drawdowns exceeding 45% [6]. Drawdown and Return Relationship - There is an inverse relationship between drawdown magnitude and average return; larger drawdowns lead to lower average returns. For instance, a drawdown of over 30% requires a rebound of 43% to break even [7][8]. - Funds with drawdowns between 15% and 30% achieved the highest average returns, while those with minimal drawdowns (0-15%) had lower average returns [7]. Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors often struggle to profit from highly volatile funds due to emotional reactions, leading to premature buying and selling decisions [8][10]. - The case of "Wooden Sister" (Cathie Wood) illustrates how significant volatility can lead to substantial losses for latecomers who buy at market peaks [8][10]. Investment Philosophy - The article draws parallels between investment strategies and philosophical teachings from "Tao Te Ching," advocating for moderation and the avoidance of excessive greed [17][20]. - It highlights that enduring volatility is essential for long-term investment success, as evidenced by successful investment firms that manage to withstand significant drawdowns [15][16]. Conclusion - The key takeaway is that achieving a balance between risk and return is crucial in investment, and understanding the costs associated with pursuing higher returns is essential for long-term success [22][23].

定调稳中求进、提质增效，重提跨周期调节。 和去年12月的政治局会议相比，更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的政策基调没有变化。最大的不同在于，去年的"稳中求进，以 进促稳"换成了"稳中求进、提质增效"，"加强超常规逆周期调节"换成了"加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度"。在经历今年的超常规政策后，即便国际经贸环境迅速变化，去年的政策目标，尤 其是稳住股市这一目标，基本顺利完成，明年经济增长的高质量就成为了政策关注的重点。通 稿中的新提法"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，和去年充实政策工具箱的表述相比，也说 明明年将更加注重政策落地的效果。 政策节奏上，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。 这一提法最早出现在今年4月的政治局 会议通稿中，本次重提也表明决策层对经贸斗争的长期性有充分认知。经历今年的几轮谈判 后，中美经贸关系逐渐趋于稳定，因此本次通稿中对"外部冲击"着墨不多，但明年临近美国中 期选举，经贸形势仍有生变可能性。当国际经贸斗争趋于激烈时，需要下更大力气稳定国内经 济，而当国际经贸斗争趋于缓和时，需要进一步推动结构性改革等中长期议题，这为理解明年 的增量政策节奏提供了参考。 Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on "high-quality development" in the private equity sector, emphasizing the transition from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leaps through professionalization, standardization, and ecological construction [4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "2025 Private Equity High-Quality Development Forum and the First Private Fund Huazun Award Ceremony" was held in Shanghai on December 11, organized by Caixin [1]. - The event gathered over a hundred institutions, showcasing the increasing influence of Caixin in the industry [4]. Group 2: Awards and Recognition - Chongyang Investment was honored with the "Outstanding Private Fund Company Award" at the ceremony [1]. - The Huazun Award aims to discover and recognize excellent private fund managers who adhere to long-termism and consistently create value for clients [4]. Group 3: Company Philosophy - Chongyang Investment continues to uphold the philosophy of "value investment, absolute returns," focusing on discovering and investing in value to create stable and long-term returns for investors [4].

每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 2025年11月 互动话题： 结合本书，谈谈对"投资如何做到不焦虑"的理解。 留言时间：2024年12月10 日 - 2025年 12月17日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） 筛选及书籍（单本）寄送：2025年12月18日后 （选中会收到提交寄送地址的私聊，逾期未提交/信息不全视为放弃，参与期间尽量不要修改头像 及昵称，以防错失良机） 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感 ...