Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a scientific cognitive system for investors, especially in the context of a recovering stock market and rising investment enthusiasm. It highlights that successful investing is not just about chasing numbers but involves a deeper understanding and recognition of market dynamics [1]. Group 1 - The upcoming live session will feature Shitai Feng, a partner at Chongyang Investment, and Dr. Liang Yufeng, the author of "The Power of Critical Thinking," who has extensive experience in market research [1]. - The stock market has recently shown signs of recovery, with indices reaching a ten-year high, reigniting investor enthusiasm [1]. - The article quotes a classic investment saying: "You cannot earn money beyond your cognition," stressing the need for a solid cognitive framework to avoid losses from luck-based gains [1]. Group 2 - Dr. Liang's book provides a comprehensive and accessible breakdown of investment principles, serving as a practical guide for investors to establish a robust investment philosophy [1]. - The discussion will focus on how investors can construct their cognitive frameworks, maintain composure amidst market excitement, and avoid common investment pitfalls [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Peter Lynch, highlighting the importance of understanding the companies one invests in, maintaining a long-term perspective, and being aware of valuation boundaries and risk-reward ratios [10][12][13]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Lynch advocates for "common-sense investing," where investors should first understand how a company makes money before assessing its stock price [10]. - He stresses the importance of a long-term view, believing that corporate earnings will be higher in ten or twenty years, which is the foundation for market growth [13][72]. - Historical data suggests that the reasonable valuation range for U.S. stocks is between 10 to 20 times earnings, with exceeding 20 times indicating accumulated risks [12][20]. - Lynch emphasizes the risk-reward ratio, suggesting that if an investment is correct, it should yield a return of one to two times the investment, while a wrong investment should only risk a loss of 30% to 40% [13][51]. Group 2: Market Insights - Lynch notes that market corrections are healthy, comparing them to a cleansing process that, while uncomfortable, benefits long-term health [12][23]. - He highlights that during market highs, risks do not disappear, and corporate earnings remain the ultimate support for stock prices [15][24]. - Lynch points out that many companies may be undervalued during market downturns, presenting opportunities for investors to find attractive stocks that are overlooked [25][47]. Group 3: Personal Investment Approach - Lynch encourages investors to focus on companies they understand, rather than chasing complex or trendy sectors [13][58]. - He shares that successful investing often involves researching lesser-known companies that may have strong fundamentals but lack attention from the market [27][59]. - Lynch advises that investors should be diligent in their research, akin to how they would approach purchasing a household item, ensuring they understand the financial health of the companies they invest in [30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Lynch expresses optimism about the long-term growth of the market, asserting that new companies will continue to emerge and thrive [72][73]. - He acknowledges that while economic downturns are inevitable, they do not signal the end of investment opportunities, particularly in emerging markets [75][78]. - Lynch concludes that the focus should remain on identifying companies with solid fundamentals and growth potential, regardless of short-term market fluctuations [51][72].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle by lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% after nearly three quarters of pausing rate cuts, indicating a shift towards risk management in monetary policy [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is based on a significant decline in labor supply and demand, a slight increase in unemployment, and reduced persistent inflation risks, suggesting a proactive approach to economic management [2] - The Fed's economic forecast indicates that GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% higher than previously anticipated, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, reflecting an outlook for a soft landing of the U.S. economy [2] - The dot plot released by the Fed suggests a higher likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with an increase in the number of rate cuts expected over the next two years [2] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The participation of newly appointed Fed Governor Miran, who voted against the rate cut and favored a 50 basis point reduction, highlights potential divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [3] - Miran's aggressive stance reflects a preference for rapidly lowering the policy rate to alleviate fiscal pressure, indicating that political influences may still affect the Fed's decision-making process [3] - The differing votes among Fed members suggest that the independence of the Federal Reserve may be challenged, leading to potential market volatility and uncertainty regarding the extent of future rate cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and continuous learning as a pathway to personal and financial growth, encouraging readers to engage with literature that enhances their investment knowledge and decision-making skills [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Winning the Loser's Game, 8th Edition" by Charles D. Ellis, which is described as a trusted guide for long-term investors, highlighting strategies to achieve success with lower costs and risks [8][25][26]. Investment Strategies - The book discusses the significance of starting with savings as a prerequisite for investment, emphasizing that without savings, investment is not possible [12]. - It outlines the necessity of setting clear savings goals and creating a savings plan to achieve those goals, which can range from saving for a bicycle to a house [13]. - The text advocates for minimizing investment costs by opting for index funds, which help avoid high management fees and other costs associated with active fund management [14]. Maintaining Rationality - A key challenge for investors is to understand themselves and maintain rational thinking to control emotions during market fluctuations [15]. - The article presents a thought experiment to illustrate that investors should prefer buying stocks when prices are low, as this aligns with their long-term interests [17][18]. - It stresses that market downturns can present opportunities for buying more shares at lower prices, ultimately benefiting long-term returns [19][20]. Investment Ten Commandments - The article summarizes ten commandments for personal investors, including the importance of saving, avoiding speculative trading, and being cautious of financial advisors who may prioritize their commissions over clients' interests [21][22][23]. - It advises against viewing a home as an investment and cautions against the risks associated with commodity futures trading [21][22]. - The commandments emphasize the need for written long-term investment goals and the importance of sticking to a disciplined investment strategy [23]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while markets and companies may change, the core principles of successful investing remain constant, encouraging readers to adopt a long-term perspective and focus on index fund investments for better performance [24].

Group 1 - The forum held on September 16-17 in Shanghai focused on the development of China's capital market, featuring discussions on new industries, models, and dynamics [6] - Chongyang Investment was honored with the "Ten-Year Model Institution" and "Top 50 Comprehensive Strength Demonstration Institution" awards at the forum [1][8] - The China Fund Report's private equity fund top 50 selection has gained significant recognition in the industry, evaluating private equity institutions based on quantitative and qualitative metrics [8] Group 2 - The theme of the forum was "Insight into Value, Intelligent Creation of the Future," bringing together leaders from regulatory bodies, industry figures, and executives from listed companies [6] - Chongyang Investment's Chairman Wang Qing delivered a keynote speech titled "Value Reassessment" during the summit [6] - The awards reflect Chongyang Investment's commitment to value investing and its goal to provide stable and long-term returns for investors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "structural bull market" in the context of China's real estate and stock markets, highlighting that since 2016, the market has not experienced a comprehensive bull market, but rather a structural one where investment is concentrated in specific sectors [2][8] - The real estate market in China has shown a trend of increasing numbers of cities experiencing price declines, with the peak of the real estate cycle occurring in 2021 [2][8] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national real estate market [8][9] Group 2 - The article compares the peak of China's real estate market in 2021 to Japan's in 1991, noting that while Tokyo's prices fell by over 50% by 1995, Shanghai's projected decline by 2025 is around 30% [8][10] - The demand for luxury properties in Shanghai is driven by factors such as urbanization, income disparity, and a lack of high-yield investment opportunities, leading to a concentration of wealth in major cities [11][15] - The article highlights that the high-end property market in Shanghai is characterized by significant price increases, with some luxury projects seeing price hikes of over 16% within a year [9][11] Group 3 - The stock market is experiencing a structural bull market, particularly in the technology sector, driven by optimism surrounding AI and related industries, with the ChiNext 50 index showing a significant increase [19][23] - The article notes that the current market environment is marked by low interest rates and a shift of funds from savings to equities, although overall economic growth remains a concern [21][27] - The disparity in investment preferences between A-shares and U.S. stocks is highlighted, with A-shares focusing more on smaller companies and storytelling rather than valuation metrics [30][32]

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待最近债券市场不断下跌的情况 ？ A：9月份以来，债券市场在经过8月末的平稳运行后再度拐头下跌，9月10日10年国债活跃券收益 率上破1.8%，30年国债活跃券收益率上破2.1%，30年期国债期货主力合约价格跌破115，价格均 创下本轮债市行情新低。 本材料版权属于重阳投资，未经重阳投资授权，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版、复 制、刊登、发表、修改、仿制或引用本材料内容。 如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢迎 扫码 咨询。 公众号改变了推送规则， 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中， 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ， 能让我们之间的距离更近一步， 为了更好地相遇， 星标置顶 也是极好的。 重阳投资，始终和你在一起。 股债跷跷板效应外，赎回费新规引发基金赎回潮是本轮行情的触发剂。 上周五晚，证监会发布 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》，其中规定除ETF、存单和货币基金 等可豁免基金外，应提高基金赎回费率，持有期小于7天则赎回费率不低于1.5%，7-30日不低于 1%，30日-6个月不低于0.5%，超出市场预期。目前纯债基金更多是作为机构投资者分散化投资债 ...

重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第301期：《社会正义谬误》 [美]托马斯·索维尔 著 李钧鹏 郑龙 译 中信出版集团 推荐人 营销编辑 张月 2025年8月 互动话题： 结合本书，请就"什么是真正的公平和正义"谈谈你的看法。 留言时间：2024年9月10 日 - 2025年 9月17日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） 筛选及书籍（单本）寄送：2025年9月18日后 （选中会收到提交寄 ...

编者按 真正的财富创造，必须放到几十年，甚至一家公司整个生命周期的尺度上，才会显现。——詹姆斯·安德 森 确实，在全球成长股投资的舞台上，詹姆斯·安德森（James Anderson）是标杆式的存在。1983年加入 Baillie Gifford，1987年即成为合伙人，后来长期执掌苏格兰抵押信托，将其从一只地方性基金带成了全 球最知名的成长型投资旗舰。20年间为股东带来了约1500%的回报，而同期富时全球基准指数为277%。 他的投资生涯中，留下了许多经典案例：在特斯拉市值只有几十亿美元时，他已是最早期的机构股东之 一；亚马逊是2004年左右买入，腾讯是2005年买入（刚上市不久）……然后长期持有。安德森靠着长期 主义和想象力，押中了这些超级赢家，构建起"二八法则"驱动的长期复利曲线。 2022年从Baillie Gifford退休后，安德森并没有远离投资舞台，而是转向新的平台。他先成为挪威基金 Skagen Vekst 控股公司 Savik Capital 的非执行主席，如今则担任意大利阿涅利家族旗下Lingotto 投资公司 的管理合伙人兼创新投资首席信息官。在新的身份下，他依旧延续 "寻找少数伟大公司 ...