Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待最近债券市场不断下跌的情况 ？ A：9月份以来，债券市场在经过8月末的平稳运行后再度拐头下跌，9月10日10年国债活跃券收益 率上破1.8%，30年国债活跃券收益率上破2.1%，30年期国债期货主力合约价格跌破115，价格均 创下本轮债市行情新低。 本材料版权属于重阳投资，未经重阳投资授权，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版、复 制、刊登、发表、修改、仿制或引用本材料内容。 如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢迎 扫码 咨询。 公众号改变了推送规则， 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中， 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ， 能让我们之间的距离更近一步， 为了更好地相遇， 星标置顶 也是极好的。 重阳投资，始终和你在一起。 股债跷跷板效应外，赎回费新规引发基金赎回潮是本轮行情的触发剂。 上周五晚，证监会发布 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》，其中规定除ETF、存单和货币基金 等可豁免基金外，应提高基金赎回费率，持有期小于7天则赎回费率不低于1.5%，7-30日不低于 1%，30日-6个月不低于0.5%，超出市场预期。目前纯债基金更多是作为机构投资者分散化投资债 ...

重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第301期：《社会正义谬误》 [美]托马斯·索维尔 著 李钧鹏 郑龙 译 中信出版集团 推荐人 营销编辑 张月 2025年8月 互动话题： 结合本书，请就"什么是真正的公平和正义"谈谈你的看法。 留言时间：2024年9月10 日 - 2025年 9月17日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足够优秀，期期选中也有可能哦） 筛选及书籍（单本）寄送：2025年9月18日后 （选中会收到提交寄 ...

编者按 真正的财富创造，必须放到几十年，甚至一家公司整个生命周期的尺度上，才会显现。——詹姆斯·安德 森 确实，在全球成长股投资的舞台上，詹姆斯·安德森（James Anderson）是标杆式的存在。1983年加入 Baillie Gifford，1987年即成为合伙人，后来长期执掌苏格兰抵押信托，将其从一只地方性基金带成了全 球最知名的成长型投资旗舰。20年间为股东带来了约1500%的回报，而同期富时全球基准指数为277%。 他的投资生涯中，留下了许多经典案例：在特斯拉市值只有几十亿美元时，他已是最早期的机构股东之 一；亚马逊是2004年左右买入，腾讯是2005年买入（刚上市不久）……然后长期持有。安德森靠着长期 主义和想象力，押中了这些超级赢家，构建起"二八法则"驱动的长期复利曲线。 2022年从Baillie Gifford退休后，安德森并没有远离投资舞台，而是转向新的平台。他先成为挪威基金 Skagen Vekst 控股公司 Savik Capital 的非执行主席，如今则担任意大利阿涅利家族旗下Lingotto 投资公司 的管理合伙人兼创新投资首席信息官。在新的身份下，他依旧延续 "寻找少数伟大公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies are currently experiencing a bottoming out in profitability, with a notable structural divergence in performance across sectors [2][3] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - A-share companies' total revenue growth for the first half of the year is -0.02%, while non-financial enterprises show a decline of -0.53% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement compared to the first quarter [2] - Net profit growth for A-share companies is 2.42%, and for non-financial enterprises, it is 0.98%, both showing a decline from the first quarter [2] - The second quarter's net profit growth for non-financial enterprises reached a seasonal low since 2010, primarily driven by financial companies [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) for A-share companies is 7.76%, and for non-financial enterprises, it is 6.55%, both down from the previous quarter [2] - Cash flow analysis shows that while net cash flow remains negative, operational, investment, and financing cash flows have improved, with non-financial real estate companies maintaining high free cash flow levels, indicating strong potential for dividends [2] Structural Performance - High-tech and overseas-oriented companies are performing well, while domestic consumption sectors are still recovering [3] - The net profit growth for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board exceeded 20% in the second quarter, leading the market, with significant contributions from the AI, semiconductor, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [3] - Companies focused on overseas markets, as indicated by the Outbound 50 Index, reported a revenue growth of 12% and a 0.6% increase in ROE, outperforming the overall market [3] - Companies with over 10% of revenue from overseas markets are seeing a recovery in profit margins and ROE, making overseas business a key growth driver [3] - In contrast, domestic consumer goods sectors have shown a significant decline in growth rates compared to the first quarter, indicating a need for recovery in domestic consumption [3] - Overall, A-share companies' profitability is gradually solidifying, with innovation and overseas expansion becoming new growth points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading and understanding the concept of "flow" in the context of modern distractions, particularly in the digital age, and introduces the book "Flow 2.0" as a guide to achieving a deeper, more meaningful flow experience in life [2][11][28]. Summary by Sections Introduction to Reading - The company promotes reading as a vital path for growth and encourages readers to engage with the content through discussions and feedback [3][4][5][6]. Overview of "Flow 2.0" - "Flow 2.0" explores how to achieve flow in a fast-paced, multitasking world filled with digital distractions, building on the original flow concept introduced by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi [10][11][28]. The Impact of Digital Distractions - The article discusses how modern life, dominated by digital media, disrupts our ability to experience flow, leading to increased anxiety and a sense of disconnection [11][12][13]. Flow and Artificial Intelligence - The interaction between humans and artificial intelligence is examined, highlighting the potential loss of control over tasks and the implications for achieving flow experiences [15][16]. Social Interaction Trends - Data shows a significant decline in face-to-face social interactions among adults and teenagers, raising concerns about the quality of relationships and their impact on happiness [16][17]. Future of Flow: Micro vs. Macro Flow - The distinction between "micro flow" (easy, low-complexity tasks) and "macro flow" (challenging, meaningful experiences) is introduced, emphasizing the need for deeper engagement in activities that foster personal growth [18][19][20]. Conditions for Achieving Macro Flow - Key conditions for achieving macro flow include having clear goals, receiving immediate feedback, and balancing challenges with skill levels [21][22][24][25]. Embracing Boredom - The authors advocate for embracing moments of boredom to foster creativity and self-reflection, which are essential for achieving meaningful flow experiences [26][27]. Conclusion - "Flow 2.0" aims to provide readers with insights on how to navigate the complexities of modern life while cultivating a fulfilling flow experience [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic conditions, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their body temperature in extreme cold, markets can misinterpret economic signals, leading to potential misjudgments about economic health [1]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [7]. - Japan's economy has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, referred to as the "lost thirty years," characterized by minimal inflation and economic growth [10]. Japan's Economic Performance - Japan's CPI index showed only a 7.5% increase from 1991 to 2021, averaging an annual growth rate of 0.25% [10]. - In terms of GDP, Japan's per capita GDP in 2024 is projected to be $32,420, which, when adjusted for inflation, represents a 33% decline from 30 years ago [10][12]. Stock Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell significantly over the following decades, illustrating the long-term economic decline [13]. - Despite experiencing several technical bull markets, the overall trend remains downward due to a lack of new industries and innovation [21][23]. Policy Missteps - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble's collapse, leading to delayed and ineffective policy responses [16]. - The Bank of Japan's slow transition from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged economic stagnation [16][17]. Infrastructure Investment Issues - Japan's public works spending has often been misallocated, focusing on low-impact projects in declining regions rather than stimulating private consumption and investment [20][29]. - The inefficacy of infrastructure investments has led to increased government debt without corresponding economic recovery [29]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - The article emphasizes the importance of targeted investment in emerging industries rather than excessive spending on infrastructure with diminishing returns [29]. - It highlights the need for coherent and consistent fiscal policies to avoid the pitfalls of Japan's past, particularly in the context of an aging population and rising government debt [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance due to rising unemployment risks and a reassessment of inflation dynamics [2][3]. Summary by Sections Jackson Hole Meeting Insights - The annual Jackson Hole meeting serves as a platform for central bank leaders to outline future monetary policy directions, with Powell's speech focusing on the review of the monetary policy framework [2]. Shift to Dovish Stance - Powell's remarks suggest an increased concern over rising unemployment risks in a weak labor market, indicating a potential for a swift rise in unemployment rates [3]. - He downplayed previous concerns regarding tariffs' impact on persistent inflation, suggesting that any price level changes are likely to be one-time events rather than ongoing inflationary pressures [3]. Future Monetary Policy Adjustments - Powell's speech indicates a potential adjustment in policy stance if inflation data does not show significant increases, with market expectations leaning towards at least two rate cuts by the end of the year [3]. Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics - The article highlights that a decrease in short-term policy rates does not necessarily lead to a reduction in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, citing factors such as strong household balance sheets and expanding fiscal deficits [4]. - The yield curve has shown a steepening trend since the Jackson Hole meeting, with the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields increasing by 10 basis points [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding finance through a humanistic lens, advocating for a return to the core values of finance as a tool for value creation rather than value extraction [24][25]. Group 1: Financial Industry Challenges - In the first half of 2025, 43 payment institutions were fined nearly 160 million yuan due to anti-money laundering issues, and Haier Consumer Finance was fined 2.3 million yuan for collection violations, highlighting risk management vulnerabilities [9]. - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks rose to 2.8%, and valuations of Hong Kong-listed banks hit a ten-year low, indicating a trend of international capital withdrawal [9]. - The cryptocurrency market faced turmoil, with Layer 2 projects collapsing and exchanges imposing bans, revealing governance issues within the industry [9][10]. Group 2: Humanistic Approach to Finance - The article discusses the need for financial professionals to better explain their work to regain public trust, emphasizing that finance should create value rather than extract it [10][11]. - Michal DeSai, a Harvard professor, suggests that integrating financial principles with literature, history, and philosophy can enhance practitioners' understanding and resistance to corruption [11][12]. - The narrative includes a parable illustrating the dual nature of finance, portraying it as both noble and deceitful, which reflects the complexities of human nature [12][13]. Group 3: Understanding Risk and Probability - The article highlights that finance provides tools to navigate a world filled with risks and uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of understanding probability [16][20]. - Historical perspectives on risk reveal that the understanding of probability evolved over time, transitioning from divine intervention to rational analysis [15][16]. - The concept of insurance is presented as a practical application of risk management, emphasizing the collective sharing of risk among individuals [19][20]. Group 4: Conclusion on Financial Wisdom - The essence of financial wisdom is rooted in human nature, navigating the tension between nobility and deceit, and is fundamentally about managing risk and creating value [24]. - The article concludes that the ultimate mission of finance is not merely numerical manipulation but empowering individuals to navigate their lives with dignity amidst uncertainty [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the historical context of the Chinese stock market, particularly the "5·19" and "post-5·19" bull markets, highlighting the economic conditions and policy changes that influenced these market movements [2][5][19]. Group 1: Historical Context - The "5·19" bull market occurred from May 19 to June 30, 1999, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 1058 points to 2814 points, a remarkable increase of 66% in just 31 trading days [3][8]. - The "post-5·19" market began in January 2000, following a period of market correction, and saw the index rise significantly, reaching a peak of 2245 points by June 14, 2001, marking a total increase of over 100% from the lows [2][19]. Group 2: Economic Background - The late 1990s were marked by economic challenges, including overcapacity, inflation, and the Asian financial crisis, which led to a significant decline in corporate profits and a drop in GDP growth to 6.7% by the end of 1999 [5][6]. - The government implemented various reforms, including the "State-Owned Enterprise Rescue Plan," which resulted in the layoff of 25.5 million workers, or 20.7% of state-owned enterprise employees, as part of the economic restructuring [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market experienced a severe downturn leading up to the "5·19" bull market, with the index hitting a low of 1048 points on May 17, 1999, following a series of negative events, including the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade [6][7]. - The sudden market surge on May 19, 1999, was attributed to a government document aimed at reforming the stock market, which was seen as a significant endorsement of market development [8][9]. Group 4: Policy Changes - The implementation of the Securities Law on July 1, 1999, aimed to regulate the market and prevent illegal activities, which initially led to a sharp decline in the index by 7.6% on the same day [9][10]. - Subsequent policies, including the push for direct financing and the introduction of institutional investors, were intended to stabilize and grow the market, although they faced challenges during the transitional period [10][11]. Group 5: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The "post-5·19" market was characterized by a slow bull trend, with the index experiencing multiple corrections of 10-20% while overall maintaining an upward trajectory [19]. - The article emphasizes the importance of patience for investors, as well as the need to be aware of short-term volatility and the impact of policy changes on market sentiment [19].

他对当下美股的看法可以总结为一句话：从"估值高企"到"令人担忧"的转变。这一变化源自对市场整体经 济前景的重新审视，以及投资者情绪和行为的影响。 以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ，作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家，甄选高质量的内容，追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP，官网：www.cmtzz.cn 编者按 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯8月13日发布了最新备忘录。这次的比较特别。有比较多的篇幅聚焦当 下的市场。 霍华德·马克斯详细分析了目前美国股市的状况，特别是标普500指数在当前估值水平下的表现。 ——BY 聪明投资者 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 图文来源/ 微信公众号【聪明投资者】 作者/聪明投资者，本图文已获得转载授权，如需转载请联系原作者， 文章仅代表作者个人独立观点。 标普 500指数作为美国股市最重要的晴雨表之一，去年年底的远期市盈率 （即股价与未来一年预估 盈利的比率） 约为 23倍，显著高于历史均值。 马克斯指出，在 2024年底和关税政策宣布之前，标普5 ...