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年化55%赚得太慢,怎么调整自己的心态?
集思录· 2025-11-14 12:29
Group 1 - The article discusses a strategy that has yielded an average annual return of 55% over the past years, with the author experiencing a doubling of their initial investment of 500,000 to just over 1 million this year, coinciding with a bull market [1] - The author expresses a sense of dissatisfaction despite the profits, feeling that the growth is slow and contemplating the long-term goal of achieving 20 million for retirement, which would require a 20-fold increase over 7 years [1] - Concerns are raised about the potential for significant drawdowns in the strategy, highlighting the uncertainty and emotional strain associated with long-term investing [1] Group 2 - There is a sentiment that a 55% annual return is perceived as slow compared to other high-risk investment opportunities, such as those in the cryptocurrency space, which can offer returns of 500% to 5000% [2][4] - Suggestions are made to consider leveraging investments to accelerate the path to retirement, indicating a preference for higher-risk strategies to achieve quicker financial freedom [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of having multiple strategies to ensure certainty in returns, as relying on a single strategy can lead to significant risks and emotional distress during market fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The discussion includes the notion that the pursuit of future wealth can sometimes serve as a distraction from current dissatisfaction with life, suggesting that individuals should focus on addressing present issues rather than solely fixating on retirement goals [7][8] - It is noted that the current market conditions may not sustain the same level of returns in the future, indicating a need for realistic expectations regarding long-term investment performance [9] - The article concludes with reflections on the nature of investment returns, suggesting that the focus should be on the journey and personal growth rather than just the end financial goal [14]
现在银行的真实坏账率到底有多少?
集思录· 2025-11-13 14:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of loan restructuring in banks, highlighting the potential risks and opportunities within the banking sector, particularly in the context of economic challenges and market perceptions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Loan Restructuring - Loan restructuring is a formal debt adjustment plan for clients unable to repay according to original terms, allowing for a more systematic approach than simple negotiations [3]. - Loans are categorized by risk, with overdue loans classified into "normal," "attention," "substandard," "doubtful," and "loss," where the latter three are considered non-performing loans [3]. - Restructured loans are classified as "attention" loans and do not count as non-performing unless they become overdue again [3]. Group 2: Market Perception and Investment Opportunities - The low price-to-earnings ratios of many banks may reflect market skepticism about their stability, despite the banks' apparent resilience to economic downturns [1]. - Historical examples illustrate that perceived crises in the banking sector may not always lead to actual failures, as seen in the recovery of major banks after past economic challenges [2]. - The article suggests that negative perceptions of banks can lead to missed investment opportunities, as market sentiment can shift rapidly, leading to significant gains for those who hold bank stocks [6]. Group 3: Current Banking Practices - Many banks are currently selling properties from defaulted loans, with some institutions holding thousands of such properties [8]. - The article notes a trend where individuals have shifted from long-term loans to short-term loans, which may not be financially prudent, indicating a potential risk in the market [7].
13日投资提示:巴西ETF上市
集思录· 2025-11-13 14:05
Group 1 - The article discusses the status of various convertible bonds, highlighting that Meinuo Convertible Bond and Xingrui Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [1] - The article lists the recent announcements regarding convertible bonds, including strong redemption and non-strong redemption statuses for specific bonds [2] - It provides detailed information on several convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6] Group 2 - The article mentions the listing of the Huaxia Brazil ETF and the E Fund Brazil ETF, indicating their availability for trading [1] - It includes a table summarizing the current market conditions of various convertible bonds, showing their performance metrics such as current price and conversion value [4][6]
股票型私募基金平均仓位达到80%,意味着什么?
集思录· 2025-11-12 14:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of stock private equity fund positions exceeding 80%, drawing parallels to historical market behaviors and potential upcoming adjustments in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Comparisons - In 2021, stock private equity funds reached a position of 80.37%, marking the first occurrence above 80% since 2008, with a peak of 81.16% shortly before the Lunar New Year [2]. - The article suggests that the current private equity fund position of 80.16% as of October 31 indicates a potential for significant market adjustments, similar to the historical context of public funds reaching 88% [2]. - The comparison highlights that the current private equity fund positions are higher than those in 2021, with 50-100 billion private equity funds at 85%, indicating a more aggressive market stance [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that the market sentiment is currently optimistic, with strong buying activity despite the high positions of private equity funds, suggesting a potential for a market correction [2]. - It warns that the current market environment is crowded, particularly in technology sectors, which may lead to a more pronounced adjustment compared to previous years [3][2]. - The article advises caution, indicating that the current market dynamics may not sustain the high valuations seen in certain sectors, particularly given the weak state of the broader economy [3].
13日投资提示:巴西ETF上市
集思录· 2025-11-12 13:58
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the status of various convertible bonds, highlighting that certain bonds will not undergo adjustments, which may impact investor strategies and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Status - Xingrui Convertible Bond (127090) and Meinuo Convertible Bond (113618) will not be adjusted, with announcements made on November 13, 2025 [1]. - The current prices and redemption values of several convertible bonds are provided, indicating their market performance and potential for investors [3][5]. Group 2: Market Data Overview - The current price of Tongcheng Convertible Bond (113621) is 125.708, with a redemption price of 101.440 and a conversion value of 126.17 [3]. - The remaining scale of various convertible bonds is detailed, with notable figures such as Hengbang Convertible Bond (127086) having a remaining scale of 8.029 billion [3]. - The flow market ratio for several bonds is presented, indicating their relative size in the market, such as the flow market ratio for Fenghuo Convertible Bond (110062) being 8.33% [5].
12日投资提示:航天宏图逾期未支付商业承兑汇票4630万元
集思录· 2025-11-11 13:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the status of various convertible bonds, including strong redemptions and upcoming subscription dates, as well as the overdue commercial acceptance bills of a specific company. Group 1: Company Financials - As of October 31, the company has overdue commercial acceptance bills amounting to 46.3 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Convertible Bonds Status - Tian Ci Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [2]. - Wei Ce Convertible Bond and Sai Li Convertible Bond are not subject to strong redemption [2]. - Rui Ke Convertible Bond will be available for subscription on November 14 [1]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds Details - Various convertible bonds are listed with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6]. - For example, the current price of Tong Cheng Convertible Bond is 125.708, with a conversion value of 126.17 and a remaining scale of 0.022 billion yuan [4].
4000点了,为什么没有以前牛市亢奋了?
集思录· 2025-11-11 13:31
Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is subdued compared to previous bull markets, with many investors feeling less excitement and engagement due to past experiences and current market conditions [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Many investors, especially seasoned ones, are cautious and less enthusiastic about the market reaching 4000 points, as they have experienced significant losses in the past [1][2][11]. - The current market feels stagnant, with stocks showing little vitality, similar to previous low points like 2600 [3][12]. - Investors express frustration over not making substantial profits, with some indicating they are still at a loss despite the market's rise [4][15]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in investment behavior, with some investors turning to alternative assets like gold, which has become more popular this year [10][18]. - The market is characterized by a lack of widespread participation from retail investors, leading to a perception that the current bull market is not as robust as in the past [19][20]. - The current market dynamics suggest a slow and steady growth pattern rather than rapid increases, which some investors find more manageable [16][17].
11日投资提示:卫宁转债不下修
集思录· 2025-11-10 13:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various convertible bonds, their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and their proportion to the underlying stocks, highlighting the investment landscape for these financial instruments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Overview - Wei Ning Convertible Bond (卫宁转债) will not undergo adjustments, with the last trading day set for December 9, 2025 [1]. - The Z Tong Cheng Convertible Bond (Z彤程转) has a current price of 125.708, with a redemption price of 101.440 and a conversion value of 126.17 [3]. - The Z Sheng 24 Convertible Bond (Z升24转) is priced at 113.184, with a redemption price of 100.168 and a conversion value of 113.67 [3]. - The Luo Kai Convertible Bond (洛凯转债) is currently at 126.615, with a redemption price of 100.038 and a conversion value of 125.05 [3]. - The Chen Feng Convertible Bond (晨丰转债) has a current price of 161.169, with a redemption price of 100.616 and a conversion value of 161.39 [3]. - The Zhong Jin Convertible Bond (中金转债) is priced at 126.333, with a redemption price of 100.700 and a conversion value of 126.81 [3]. - The Heng Bang Convertible Bond (恒邦转债) is currently at 122.680, with a redemption price of 100.280 and a conversion value of 122.79 [3]. - The Qi Bin Convertible Bond (旗滨转债) has a current price of 125.607, with the last trading day yet to be announced and a conversion value of 126.15 [3]. Group 2: Additional Convertible Bonds Information - The Feng Huo Convertible Bond (烽火转债) is priced at 110.722, with a redemption price of 106.000 and a conversion value of 111.15 [5]. - The Eagle 19 Convertible Bond (鹰19转债) has a current price of 116.589, with a redemption price of 111.000 and a conversion value of 103.41 [5]. - The Hong Da Convertible Bond (鸿达退债) is priced at 12.556, with a redemption price of 118.000 and a conversion value of 3.07 [5].
期权永远不要做卖方?
集思录· 2025-11-10 13:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the risks associated with being an options seller, arguing that the rules favor the buyer and that selling options can lead to significant losses over time [2][5][11]. Group 1: Options Trading Insights - The author believes that options are more favorable to buyers due to limited losses and unlimited potential gains, contrasting this with the risks faced by sellers [2][5]. - The article discusses the misconception that out-of-the-money options have no value, asserting that they can still hold significant worth and should not be dismissed [3][4]. - It highlights the limitations of the Black-Scholes (BS) pricing model, suggesting that relying solely on this model may lead to missed opportunities for undervalued options [4][7]. Group 2: Human Behavior in Trading - The article explores the psychological aspects of trading, noting that both buyers and sellers can fall into traps due to their inherent risk-seeking behaviors [5][6]. - It suggests that the allure of quick profits can lead traders to make irrational decisions, often resulting in losses [5][10]. Group 3: Options as a Risk Management Tool - The article posits that options should primarily be viewed as tools for hedging and enhancing portfolio resilience rather than mere speculative instruments [8][10]. - It emphasizes the versatility of options in constructing various risk-return profiles, making them valuable in investment strategies [8].
1200万如何投资,想退休了
集思录· 2025-11-09 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies and considerations for individuals looking to retire with a certain amount of savings, specifically focusing on a case where an individual has saved 12 million and is contemplating retirement while managing family expenses of 250,000 to 300,000 annually [1]. Investment Strategy - Defensive Layer: 40% allocation suggested, including 6% in money market funds, 20% in large time deposits, and 14% in bond funds [4]. - Core Layer: 35% allocation suggested, including 13% in CSI 300, 10% in dividend stocks, and 12% in S&P 500 [4]. - Satellite Layer: 25% allocation suggested, including 8% in CSI 500, 9% in NASDAQ 100, and 8% in gold [4]. Personal Experiences and Recommendations - One individual shared their experience of achieving a 30% annual return from 2007 to 2018, but cautioned against investing for those who are not experienced, suggesting that simply saving in a bank might be a safer option [3]. - Another individual emphasized the importance of adapting investment strategies to changing market conditions and maintaining a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds [6]. - A different perspective suggested that with 12 million in savings, one could potentially live off the returns without needing to invest aggressively, as a 2.5% return would cover annual expenses [9]. Alternative Investment Ideas - A suggestion was made to invest in a strategy involving futures trading, where the individual could manage risk while generating income through premium collection [8]. - Another proposed a diversified portfolio focusing on high-dividend stocks and a mix of U.S. and satellite investments, with an emphasis on annual rebalancing [10].