Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the economy shows signs of monthly rebound, mid-term variables remain weak, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [1][2] - The market experienced divergence last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 1.08%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03%, and the CSI 500 index increasing by 0.32%, indicating an overall downward trend despite a weak rebound in small-cap stocks [2][3] - The official manufacturing PMI for May rebounded, signaling a recovery in the Chinese economy after the April tariff disruptions, but it remains below the strong demand levels seen earlier in the year, indicating a repair phase rather than a definitive turnaround [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis of the U.S. economy reveals short-term resilience but persistent mid-term consumer confidence issues, compounded by political strife, making sustained economic recovery unlikely [2][3] - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, as the economic rebound indicators have already been priced in by the market [3] - For the small-cap sector, despite a relative strength in style, the recommendation remains to maintain a low position, with a focus on the mid-cap range from CSI 500 to CSI 1000 [3]

Group 1 - The market has entered a correction phase, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.18%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.57%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.10% last week, indicating a negative trend influenced by both internal and external factors [2][4] - The automotive industry performed well, ranking second in weekly gains, just behind the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - Domestic economic indicators show a mismatch between strong export performance and weak domestic production and consumption, indicating a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy, which is still experiencing a wave of recession [3][4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a strengthening downtrend in the market, with both the main board and small-cap sectors showing signs of adjustment, leading to a cautious stance on investments in these areas [4] - The U.S. is facing renewed trade tensions, particularly with the EU, which adds to the global economic risks and complicates the investment landscape, suggesting that the current geopolitical climate may not favor Chinese companies as indirect beneficiaries [3][4] - The recommendation for the main board and small-cap sectors remains low positions to mitigate risks, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a recommendation to reduce positions in the market, particularly in the main board and small-cap sectors, due to signs of a potential market reversal and weakening economic fundamentals [1][5]. - The recent market rebound is noted, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.12% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76%, but the overall trend is seen as reversing after a series of gains [2][4]. - Economic indicators show a weakening trend in the domestic economy, with M1 growth significantly below market expectations, reinforcing the view that the economic performance in April was impacted by tariff shocks [3][4]. Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the recent market movements are driven by speculative trading rather than institutional or public fund adjustments, with a significant withdrawal of speculative funds observed [4][5]. - The current market conditions are compared to those of May 2012, suggesting a high similarity in technical characteristics, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [4][5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector is also advised to keep a low position due to the relative weakness observed [5]. Group 3 - The analysis highlights the impact of recent U.S. economic news, including the rejection of a tax cut proposal and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which are expected to have negative implications for the U.S. economy and, consequently, for global markets [3][4]. - The focus on the automotive industry is suggested as a short-term momentum model to watch, indicating potential opportunities despite the overall cautious stance [5].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.60% [2] - A joint meeting of multiple ministries announced a new round of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at supporting the economy and the stock market, but the impact is expected to be less than last year's measures [3][4] - The recent import and export data revealed significant shocks, with exports showing a notable decline and imports experiencing an unusual surge, potentially indicating a "importing through Hong Kong" behavior [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that a right-side sell signal has been confirmed, with institutional funds continuing to flow out despite the market's rebound [4] - The overall economic impact is evident, and while policies have been implemented, their effectiveness remains uncertain, leading to a recommendation for low positions in the main board to mitigate risks [4] - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the banking sector as a potential area of interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a reduction in tactical discipline while strategic discipline is being selectively applied, with a recommendation for low positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - Last week, the market saw a slight decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.49%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.08 [2]. - The stabilization forces in the market are beginning to weaken, and while small-cap sectors showed some strength in Q1 earnings, their sustainability remains in question [2]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is facing the first wave of impact from the tariff war, with Q1 earnings reports showing a lack of significant improvement, particularly in the banking sector, which underperformed market expectations [2]. - The April official PMI data indicates a significant weakening trend, supporting the view that the Chinese economy will confront challenges from the tariff war [2]. - In the U.S., despite stable monthly employment data, leading indicators suggest a decline starting in May, and the recently disclosed Q1 GDP turned negative, indicating an impending recession [2]. Technical Analysis - Tactical discipline is beginning to weaken, as evidenced by the reversal in the banking sector's trend following the April Politburo meeting and Q1 earnings reports [3]. - The overall technical outlook remains cautious, with institutional funds continuing to flow out of small-cap sectors [3]. - The A-share Q1 earnings, while relatively stable, are viewed as a small rebound within a mid-term downward trend, necessitating defensive positioning ahead of potential economic shocks [3]. Investment Strategy - For the main board, the recommendation is to maintain low positions as the positive impacts of Q1 economic data and earnings have already materialized, while the second quarter's tariff war effects are still unfolding [3]. - For small-cap sectors, despite better Q1 earnings compared to the main board, concerns about the sustainability of the recovery remain significant, thus low positions are advised [3]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as automotive and home appliances [3].

观点简述： 上周市场全周继续微涨趋势，沪深300指数周涨幅0.38%，上证综指周涨幅0.56%，中证500指数 周涨幅1.20%。市场维持了少见的窄幅震荡状态，资金重点期盼重要会议的方向指引。 每周思考总第626期 《 久盘滞涨，建议再降仓 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月27日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 基本面上，美国经济数据的割裂度不断提升。 国内方面，上周央行MLF超额续作，但市场重点 关注的财政与货币刺激政策时间表依旧未能在4月政治局会议中有明确指示，这也意味着4月关税冲击 对国内经济基本面的影响或将难免；海外方面，美国继续披露各维度经济数据，各条线数据分化有所 扩大，如成屋销售继续低迷但新房销售重回高位、就业PMI维持弱势但失业人数保持平稳、最为矛盾 的是消费同比保持高增但消费者信心与投资者信心都已跌至过去4年新低，美国经济基本面的锚定指 标出现如此巨幅分化走势是 ...

每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...

每周思考总第624期 《 关税冲击变化的只是力度，不变的是方向！ 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月13日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 观点简述： 上周市场深跌后反弹，沪深300指数涨幅-2.87%，上证综指周涨幅-3.11%，中证500指数周涨 幅-4.52%。包括中美在内的全球股市都在美国关税政策落地、加码、暂停等消息下被反复情绪牵引。 基本面上，美国部分加征关税已读撤回。 海外方面，美国总统特朗普4月9日突然宣布对部分国 家的对等关税暂缓90天执行，资本市场短期情绪迅速变化并导致全球股市此前超跌后快速反弹，但至 今未有公开新闻展示具体75国名单，美国属于典型的重磅利空被市场吸收后又快速暂停，类似微信发 了一个噩耗后马上撤回消息，留给全球投资者的是高度紧张与惊恐，但 4月5日开始的10%全球一致 性关税确实已开始稳定实施并不受本次额外对等关税撤回影响 ；国内方面，中方继续保 ...

每周思考总第623期 综上所述，上周全球股市如期大跌，A股表现相对强势但也仍在调整趋势，我们上周标题《全球 股市调整或仍将延续》再度切中当前市场最大焦点问题；美国对包括欧洲及日韩等传统盟友一致性加 征远超市场预期关税， 美股有重蹈95年前那轮相似事件下的经济、流动性双杀的风险 ，重申近3个月 反复强调的美股重大回避观点；中国政府第一时间强烈反制政策快速推出，对全球经济冲击短期加码 作用， 全球关税战强烈升级，康波萧条2025年准时落地 。 主板择时观点： 重申上周观点，目前国内基本面及技术面都支持A股延续调整，海外美股连续调整也 形成连带影响，继续控制仓位在中等并耐心等待，重点关注后续我国应对本次事件冲击的财政货币对 冲政策的具体发布时点与相关细节； 《 超级关税全球股市脆断，周期天王十年预言一语成箴 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月6日累计收益7.79%。 观点简述： 上周市场延续调整，沪深300指数涨幅-1.37%，上证综指周涨幅-0.28%，中证500指数周涨 幅-1.19%。上周标题明确提示"全球股市调整"，实际全球股 ...

每周思考总第622期 观点简述： 上周市场弱势反弹后继续调整，沪深300指数涨幅0.01%，上证综指周涨幅-0.40%，中证500指数 周涨幅-0.94%。上周我们维持的谨慎观点并继续提出"本周反弹仍是减仓时机"，实际市场如期在弱势 反弹后继续调整新低。 基本面上，美国经济预警信号增多。 国内方面，宏观经济在去年四季度开始的反弹趋势开始面 临更多阻力，地产销售反弹趋势扭转，叠加已经开启的美国对中国关税逐月提高，预计4月中国经济 面临阶段挑战；海外方面，美国继续就关税的范围、对象、执行节奏等细节在不断反复并牵引市场预 期，但 目前美国更严重的问题在于2025年财政预算法案的迟迟不能通过，这意味着美国经济当前正 在面临非常严峻的挑战，未来几个月的经济运行情况或有更大压力，而美国消费数据及投资者信心似 乎也开始受到直接负面影响，重申美股重大回避观点不变。 技术面上，市场仍在调整趋势中。 自两周前市场高点位置独家提示左侧预警后，市场连续两周 调整符合预期，而近期中小市值板块的风格走弱也为上述状态多了一层确认，短期市场调整或持续。 综上所述，上周市场弱势反弹后延续调整，与上周观点预判一致，值得注意的是中小市值板块风 格 ...