Group 1 - The market continued its upward trend with the CSI 300 index increasing by 0.82%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.09%, and the CSI 500 index gaining 1.96% last week, indicating a strong market rally driven by institutional funds [3] - Domestic economic data remains under pressure, with CPI stabilizing and PPI continuing to decline, reflecting ongoing deflationary trends in industrial prices, which are impacting corporate profitability [3] - The U.S. has announced increased tariffs on multiple economies, including traditional allies, which may have a significant impact on the economy despite a temporary stable performance in capital markets [3] Group 2 - Since April 30, there has been a notable increase in institutional fund rotation and accumulation, with a strong buy signal detected last Tuesday, indicating a shift from cautious to aggressive buying behavior among institutional investors [4] - The recent influx of incremental capital has led to a rebound in A-shares, with a significant buy signal emerging last Tuesday, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market [4] - The short-term leading variable is the capital flow, with recommendations to maintain high positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors, while focusing on sectors such as steel, telecommunications, and media [4]

Group 1 - The market continued to rise last week, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.54%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.40%, and the CSI 500 index by 0.81% [3] - Incremental capital has driven the A-share market upward, but internal structural differentiation has re-emerged [3] - The economic fundamentals in both China and the US remain weak, with China's PMI data indicating ongoing pressure from the trade war, and US employment data showing volatility that may not accurately reflect the job market [4] Group 2 - The technical signals have been fulfilled, but the lack of fundamental support suggests that the market may return to a state of fluctuation due to the rapid withdrawal of new capital [5] - The market reached 3500 points, aligning with technical predictions, but the sustainability of this rise is in question due to unfavorable internal structural changes [5] - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a medium position, while the small and medium-sized market segments should also revert to a medium position, indicating a shift towards a balanced style [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the influx of incremental funds has become a dominant variable in the short-term A-share market [1] - The market showed a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.95%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.91%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.98% [3] - The sudden shift in the Middle East situation from conflict to peace has led to a significant impact on market dynamics, with a notable influx of funds supporting the A-share market [3][4] Group 2 - The domestic industrial profit data released last week indicated a continued decline, which aligns with expectations, reflecting the objective state of the Chinese economy [3] - The unexpected ceasefire in the Middle East led to a rapid revaluation of global risk assets, causing a sharp drop in oil prices and a rebound in both Chinese and U.S. stock markets [3][4] - The technical indicators showed multiple models triggering buy signals, indicating a strong upward momentum in the market [4] Group 3 - The main board is recommended to maintain a high position, following the model signals that turned bullish after last Tuesday's close [5] - The small and medium-sized stocks are also suggested to adopt a high position, benefiting from liquidity support and showing greater elasticity in the current market environment [5] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a "dual bull" trend in both stocks and bonds, driven by the active participation of incremental funds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during the late stage of the Kondratiev wave depression, highlighting the negative impact on the A-share market and suggesting a low position in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market adjusted as expected, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.75% [3]. - The overall market activity has significantly decreased, despite the banking sector showing strength, which slightly mitigated the decline in the main board [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. has intervened in attacks against Iran, while domestic data from China shows a continued decline in industrial production, indicating a negative outlook for the A-share market [3][4]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant drop in consumption, and industrial production continues to weaken, reflecting a divergence from the earlier market rally [3][4]. - U.S. retail data has also begun to weaken, confirming previous assessments of a temporary effect from "import grabbing" in the first quarter of the year [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Institutional capital flow has weakened, aligning with the fundamental outlook, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector, which had previously benefited from capital inflows, is also advised to maintain a low position due to weakening economic rebound logic [4]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market dynamics are influenced by overseas geopolitical conflicts, with a notable shift in investment sentiment observed in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25%, and the CSI 500 index down by 0.38% [3]. - Despite a brief period of stock and bond gains in the domestic market, the escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts led to a reversal in market performance [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Both China and the U.S. reported disappointing economic data, with China's exports significantly underperforming expectations, particularly in exports to the U.S., which saw a year-on-year decline [4]. - Domestic price levels continued to show a downward trend, indicating persistent consumer weakness, while the banking sector's monetary supply data suggested a marginal weakening despite a year-on-year increase in M1 due to a low base effect [4]. - In the U.S., the unexpected increase in the fiscal deficit raised concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies, and the labor market showed signs of weakening, reinforcing a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Institutional funds continued to increase their positions, which contrasts with the overall weakening of the index, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and fundamental data [5]. - The A-share market attempted to replicate the dual bull market of 2014, but current indicators do not confirm this trend, with the recent geopolitical events acting as a critical test for market resilience [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, reflecting the ongoing weak economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, a similar low position strategy is advised, as these sectors have also shown weakness in response to the geopolitical situation [5]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical industries as potential areas of interest [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes maintaining a cautious stance in a market characterized by narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the current economic conditions and market trends [1]. Weekly Recommendations - Suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both at low allocations, indicating a conservative approach [2]. Market Performance Summary - In the first week of June, the market saw a rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.88%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.60%. Despite the macroeconomic challenges following April's tariff impacts, market trading activity has improved [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized, and Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair. In China, the central bank is set to disclose monthly reverse repurchase amounts, with June's scale rising to 1 trillion, which is seen as a rolling support for economic stability. The market is closely monitoring production and consumption data following May's export surge [4]. - Recent U.S. employment data shows a flat unemployment rate and a decline in labor participation, indicating a cooling job market. The upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair may influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts. However, a significant economic recession is anticipated before any major rate cuts occur, as the dollar's credibility could be at risk [4]. Technical Analysis - The market continues to exhibit a narrow oscillation pattern without a clear new trend direction. Institutional funds have flowed into both the main board and small-cap sectors, but these movements have not yet confirmed a new trend [4]. Summary of Market Outlook - The market experienced a slight rebound amid expectations of a U.S.-China summit, with increased trading activity. However, the Chinese economy is still grappling with insufficient domestic demand and fluctuating external demand, while the U.S. faces fiscal challenges amid significant external shocks. The global economic landscape remains fragile, and any changes in expectations regarding major legislative actions or trade tensions could trigger a new round of equity adjustments [5]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low allocation until new signals emerge, while the small-cap sector also remains at a low allocation due to a lack of reversal signals, with a preference for the main board [5]. Short-term momentum models recommend focusing on the banking and telecommunications sectors [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the economy shows signs of monthly rebound, mid-term variables remain weak, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [1][2] - The market experienced divergence last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 1.08%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03%, and the CSI 500 index increasing by 0.32%, indicating an overall downward trend despite a weak rebound in small-cap stocks [2][3] - The official manufacturing PMI for May rebounded, signaling a recovery in the Chinese economy after the April tariff disruptions, but it remains below the strong demand levels seen earlier in the year, indicating a repair phase rather than a definitive turnaround [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis of the U.S. economy reveals short-term resilience but persistent mid-term consumer confidence issues, compounded by political strife, making sustained economic recovery unlikely [2][3] - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, as the economic rebound indicators have already been priced in by the market [3] - For the small-cap sector, despite a relative strength in style, the recommendation remains to maintain a low position, with a focus on the mid-cap range from CSI 500 to CSI 1000 [3]

Group 1 - The market has entered a correction phase, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.18%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.57%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.10% last week, indicating a negative trend influenced by both internal and external factors [2][4] - The automotive industry performed well, ranking second in weekly gains, just behind the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - Domestic economic indicators show a mismatch between strong export performance and weak domestic production and consumption, indicating a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy, which is still experiencing a wave of recession [3][4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a strengthening downtrend in the market, with both the main board and small-cap sectors showing signs of adjustment, leading to a cautious stance on investments in these areas [4] - The U.S. is facing renewed trade tensions, particularly with the EU, which adds to the global economic risks and complicates the investment landscape, suggesting that the current geopolitical climate may not favor Chinese companies as indirect beneficiaries [3][4] - The recommendation for the main board and small-cap sectors remains low positions to mitigate risks, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a recommendation to reduce positions in the market, particularly in the main board and small-cap sectors, due to signs of a potential market reversal and weakening economic fundamentals [1][5]. - The recent market rebound is noted, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.12% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76%, but the overall trend is seen as reversing after a series of gains [2][4]. - Economic indicators show a weakening trend in the domestic economy, with M1 growth significantly below market expectations, reinforcing the view that the economic performance in April was impacted by tariff shocks [3][4]. Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the recent market movements are driven by speculative trading rather than institutional or public fund adjustments, with a significant withdrawal of speculative funds observed [4][5]. - The current market conditions are compared to those of May 2012, suggesting a high similarity in technical characteristics, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [4][5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector is also advised to keep a low position due to the relative weakness observed [5]. Group 3 - The analysis highlights the impact of recent U.S. economic news, including the rejection of a tax cut proposal and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which are expected to have negative implications for the U.S. economy and, consequently, for global markets [3][4]. - The focus on the automotive industry is suggested as a short-term momentum model to watch, indicating potential opportunities despite the overall cautious stance [5].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.60% [2] - A joint meeting of multiple ministries announced a new round of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at supporting the economy and the stock market, but the impact is expected to be less than last year's measures [3][4] - The recent import and export data revealed significant shocks, with exports showing a notable decline and imports experiencing an unusual surge, potentially indicating a "importing through Hong Kong" behavior [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that a right-side sell signal has been confirmed, with institutional funds continuing to flow out despite the market's rebound [4] - The overall economic impact is evident, and while policies have been implemented, their effectiveness remains uncertain, leading to a recommendation for low positions in the main board to mitigate risks [4] - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the banking sector as a potential area of interest [4]