每周思考总第655期 技术面上，尚未触发底部买入信号。 伴随11月后市场风险偏好下降，原本的周期与科技的轮动 特征转变为了普跌，目前机构资金也尚未出现增量入场迹象，维持市场调整观点不变。 主板择时观点： 上周标题明确提示的再减仓至低仓位的信号精准规避本周市场大跌，A股资金面虽与 美国不直接关联但市场情绪趋同，短期谨慎市场情绪有待消化，建议维持 低仓位 耐心等待下一个企 稳信号。 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 观点简述： 上周市场大幅下跌，沪深300指数周涨幅-3.77%，上证综指周涨幅-3.90%，中证500指数周涨 幅-5.78%。上周观点中明确 标题 提示"A股减仓 " ，本周国内市场在基本面技术面消息面共振下如期 出现显著调整。 基本面上，短期消息面中期仍是基本面压制。 国内方面，消息面上虽有荷兰对安世行政令暂停 的部分利多，但单周美国AI科技企业的连续领跌依旧继续强化对A股风险偏好的压制，而国内10月经 济各项指标的再度走弱是市场调整的中期原因未变，本月长短期LPR利率均继续维持不下调也低 ...

基本面上，国内外多重利空消息及数据打击。 国内方面，上周披露的一系列10月经济数据继续 指向经济弱势，货币供应方面增速全面回落、经济生产方面的生产、消费、地产销售也是全面回落， 结合事件方面的荷兰安世事件的持续僵持搁置等， 整体凸显了最近几个月中国实体经济的基本状态 ——全社会需求还在下行只有物价涨了，再对比全球商品价格过去3个月的整体下行趋势，显然本次 国内物价反弹有较多"反内卷"成分，我们也早在2个月前就开始提示这一轮中国物价的独立行情，但 对其持续性目前仍抱谨慎态度不变，对应板块的中期投资逻辑需慎重对待 ；海外方面，美国政府经 历史上最长关门后于上周四在美国总统签署相关临时草案文件后正式结束，但同日美联储再度传达12 月降息概率下降，导致美股短期利多变利空，美国AI主题叙事也开始面临各方多空争论，我们建议淡 化美联储降息节奏的事件影响，毕竟22-23年的持续高利率下美股也没有少涨一点， 目前美国短期最 大风险依旧是银行资金面紧张与美债发行可持续性的问题 ，这对包括国际金价在内的全部美元资产 都将形成长期利空，建议维持美股回避不变。 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in the US Consumer Confidence Index, reaching its lowest level in 70 years, and questions whether the "K-shaped recovery" narrative still holds true [4] - Domestic economic pressures are highlighted, with China's October export data showing a significant drop to -1% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in the A-share market's fundamentals [4] - The article notes that inflation in China is driven more by overseas raw materials and domestic "anti-involution" rather than domestic demand, suggesting that the positive effects will be limited to a few upstream industries [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a hesitation among investors, with a cooling trend in institutional and retail participation following declines in US stocks and liquidity events [5] - The main board's market timing perspective suggests maintaining a medium position while waiting for clearer market direction, as the recent export data has caused some short-term impact but is not the primary driver [5] - The small and mid-cap sector is advised to also maintain a medium position, with a focus on observing market conditions for further developments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a moderate increase in positions during the current short-term adjustment phase, with a focus on balancing investments across different market segments [1]. Market Performance - The market showed a mixed performance last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.11%, and the CSI 500 index rising by 1.00% [3]. - The technology sector remained strong in the first half of the week but faced adjustments in the latter half, influenced by overseas market sentiments [3]. Economic Indicators - Recent official PMI data fell below market expectations, indicating that the Chinese economy has not entered a new growth phase [3]. - The macroeconomic data released in mid-October showed signs of a single-month economic rebound, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [3]. - The third-quarter earnings reports revealed a divergence in performance: the real economy showed near 0% growth, while market investment-related sectors benefited from a strong Q3, leading to significant earnings increases [3]. Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence between technology and consumer sectors, with technology maintaining double-digit growth while consumer sectors experienced double-digit declines, a rare occurrence in A-share history [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October was in line with market expectations, although uncertainties regarding future rate cuts remain [3]. Technical Analysis - The market is witnessing a return of incremental capital, with both institutional and retail investors showing marginally positive participation, suggesting a potential challenge to new highs after a two-month consolidation [4]. - The recommendation for the main board is to moderately increase positions to a medium level, as the third-quarter results align with previous macroeconomic forecasts [4]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, the suggestion is also to moderately increase positions to a medium level, with a shift towards a balanced market style [4]. - The short-term momentum model indicates a focus on the home appliance industry [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses a market rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.88%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.46% due to ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. and the recent important 20th Central Committee meeting [3] - Monthly economic data showed unexpected rebounds in September, with production and consumption data indicating a month-on-month recovery, including slight rebounds in retail sales and real estate [3] - The article notes that while macroeconomic indicators have improved, the micro-level corporate earnings reports are yet to show significant rebounds, with the focus on upcoming quarterly reports for confirmation [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a decline in the activity of small-cap stocks, with overall market activity continuing to trend downward, supported mainly by core dividend and technology leading stocks [4] - The main board's timing strategy suggests maintaining a low position due to low individual stock activity despite macroeconomic rebounds, while the small-cap sector is advised to also maintain a low position [4] - The short-term momentum model recommends focusing on the electric power equipment and new energy sectors [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Ruicheng core strategy has shown strong performance, with the TMT sector experiencing a rebound and reaching new highs, placing it at the top of its peer group [5] - The net value performance of the Shanghai Ruicheng products has also reached historical weekly highs, indicating effective beta management and composite strategies [6]

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant adjustment last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 2.22%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.47%, and the CSI 500 index down by 5.17% [3] - The ongoing China-US trade friction continues to create volatility, with recent economic data from China showing a low-level oscillation in the economy, including a notable drop in exports to Europe [3][4] - The recommendation is to maintain a low position and patiently wait, as the market is expected to continue facing adjustments due to trade conflict news, particularly until the APEC meeting at the end of the month [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that retail investors' short-term speculation cannot prevent the market's medium-term adjustment, with no new signs of institutional capital entering the market [4] - The main board's performance is expected to be controlled within a 2% decline due to the support from dividend sectors, while the small and medium-sized stocks are experiencing more significant declines [4] - There are no specific industries recommended for short-term momentum or trend models at this time [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations driven by retail investor sentiment and the impact of a new round of global "black swan" events, particularly focusing on the escalation of the US-China trade conflict and its implications for the market [3][4]. Market Performance - In the last two weeks, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.47%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, and the CSI 500 index saw a gain of 2.17% [3]. - The market was primarily influenced by retail investor sentiment, leading to a temporary surge before facing a significant downturn due to external shocks [3]. Trade Conflict Analysis - The article highlights China's proactive response to the US's intensified trade conflict, particularly in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors [4]. - The announcement by Trump on October 10 to impose further tariffs on China triggered a global market sell-off, including a notable drop in the A50 index and significant declines in cryptocurrency markets [4]. Technical Analysis - The article notes a successful early warning for reducing positions, which helped avoid losses during the April 7 market crash [5]. - Despite recent highs in the market, institutional and speculative investors are maintaining a cautious stance, while retail investors continue to drive prices upward, leading to potential market reversals [5]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a low position in the main board and small-cap sectors, emphasizing a focus on avoiding risks in the current market environment [2][6]. - The prevailing market style is identified as large-cap dominant, with no specific sectors recommended for short-term momentum [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current pricing logic of global major asset classes, emphasizing the impact of macroeconomic factors on asset valuation [2] - It highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between interest rates and asset prices, noting that rising interest rates typically lead to lower asset valuations [2] - The author points out that inflation expectations play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and asset pricing, with higher inflation often resulting in increased volatility [2] Group 2 - The article analyzes the performance of various asset classes, indicating that equities have shown resilience despite economic uncertainties, while fixed income assets have faced challenges due to interest rate hikes [2] - It mentions the shift in investor focus towards alternative investments, such as private equity and real estate, as a response to traditional asset class underperformance [2] - The author concludes that a diversified investment strategy is essential in navigating the current market environment, recommending a balanced approach across different asset classes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to show signs of divergence, with the broad indices rising while many individual stocks are experiencing consecutive declines. The current market structure is more fragmented than usual, making it difficult for traditional investment strategies to achieve stable positive returns [3]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.07% last week, while the CSI 500 Index saw a 0.98% rise. However, a significant number of stocks in the market have shown two consecutive weekly declines [3]. - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged in September, indicating limited room for interest rate cuts in the near term, which may not be favorable for the market's high expectations [3]. - Domestic commodity prices have been performing better than overseas prices since August, largely due to the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [3]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to reduce positions to low levels and focus on avoiding the market, particularly in the small-cap sector, as the market style shifts towards large-cap stocks [2][3]. - The technology sector, which has been active recently, may face macroeconomic headwinds due to the stable LPR and stronger domestic industrial prices compared to overseas [3]. - The financial sector, a key representative of large-cap industries, has already entered a phase of continuous adjustment, raising concerns about when the technology growth sector will no longer support the indices [3]. Technical Analysis - There are indications that the market's upward movement is being driven by retail investors, as institutional funds appear to be distributing shares to them, a common characteristic of market tops [4]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the basic chemical industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.44%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.32% [3] - Economic data for August was below market expectations, with weak production, consumption, and new housing sales data [3] - The recent economic performance in China has been significantly impacted by declining exports, with real estate sales in first-tier cities continuing to decline [3][4] Group 2 - The technical market features indicate a significant shift in capital allocation, with the financial sector becoming a major variable in the index decline, while the technology sector has absorbed funds from the financial sector [4] - The recommendation for the main board is to reduce positions to a low level and focus on avoiding risks, as the market is expected to revert to mean levels [4] - The small-cap sector showed stronger performance than the main board but is likely supported by speculative funds, suggesting a reduction in positions to a low level [4][5]