Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during the late stage of the Kondratiev wave depression, highlighting the negative impact on the A-share market and suggesting a low position in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market adjusted as expected, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.75% [3]. - The overall market activity has significantly decreased, despite the banking sector showing strength, which slightly mitigated the decline in the main board [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. has intervened in attacks against Iran, while domestic data from China shows a continued decline in industrial production, indicating a negative outlook for the A-share market [3][4]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant drop in consumption, and industrial production continues to weaken, reflecting a divergence from the earlier market rally [3][4]. - U.S. retail data has also begun to weaken, confirming previous assessments of a temporary effect from "import grabbing" in the first quarter of the year [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Institutional capital flow has weakened, aligning with the fundamental outlook, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector, which had previously benefited from capital inflows, is also advised to maintain a low position due to weakening economic rebound logic [4]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market dynamics are influenced by overseas geopolitical conflicts, with a notable shift in investment sentiment observed in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25%, and the CSI 500 index down by 0.38% [3]. - Despite a brief period of stock and bond gains in the domestic market, the escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts led to a reversal in market performance [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Both China and the U.S. reported disappointing economic data, with China's exports significantly underperforming expectations, particularly in exports to the U.S., which saw a year-on-year decline [4]. - Domestic price levels continued to show a downward trend, indicating persistent consumer weakness, while the banking sector's monetary supply data suggested a marginal weakening despite a year-on-year increase in M1 due to a low base effect [4]. - In the U.S., the unexpected increase in the fiscal deficit raised concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies, and the labor market showed signs of weakening, reinforcing a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Institutional funds continued to increase their positions, which contrasts with the overall weakening of the index, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and fundamental data [5]. - The A-share market attempted to replicate the dual bull market of 2014, but current indicators do not confirm this trend, with the recent geopolitical events acting as a critical test for market resilience [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, reflecting the ongoing weak economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, a similar low position strategy is advised, as these sectors have also shown weakness in response to the geopolitical situation [5]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical industries as potential areas of interest [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes maintaining a cautious stance in a market characterized by narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the current economic conditions and market trends [1]. Weekly Recommendations - Suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both at low allocations, indicating a conservative approach [2]. Market Performance Summary - In the first week of June, the market saw a rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.88%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.60%. Despite the macroeconomic challenges following April's tariff impacts, market trading activity has improved [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized, and Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair. In China, the central bank is set to disclose monthly reverse repurchase amounts, with June's scale rising to 1 trillion, which is seen as a rolling support for economic stability. The market is closely monitoring production and consumption data following May's export surge [4]. - Recent U.S. employment data shows a flat unemployment rate and a decline in labor participation, indicating a cooling job market. The upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair may influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts. However, a significant economic recession is anticipated before any major rate cuts occur, as the dollar's credibility could be at risk [4]. Technical Analysis - The market continues to exhibit a narrow oscillation pattern without a clear new trend direction. Institutional funds have flowed into both the main board and small-cap sectors, but these movements have not yet confirmed a new trend [4]. Summary of Market Outlook - The market experienced a slight rebound amid expectations of a U.S.-China summit, with increased trading activity. However, the Chinese economy is still grappling with insufficient domestic demand and fluctuating external demand, while the U.S. faces fiscal challenges amid significant external shocks. The global economic landscape remains fragile, and any changes in expectations regarding major legislative actions or trade tensions could trigger a new round of equity adjustments [5]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low allocation until new signals emerge, while the small-cap sector also remains at a low allocation due to a lack of reversal signals, with a preference for the main board [5]. Short-term momentum models recommend focusing on the banking and telecommunications sectors [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the economy shows signs of monthly rebound, mid-term variables remain weak, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [1][2] - The market experienced divergence last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 1.08%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03%, and the CSI 500 index increasing by 0.32%, indicating an overall downward trend despite a weak rebound in small-cap stocks [2][3] - The official manufacturing PMI for May rebounded, signaling a recovery in the Chinese economy after the April tariff disruptions, but it remains below the strong demand levels seen earlier in the year, indicating a repair phase rather than a definitive turnaround [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis of the U.S. economy reveals short-term resilience but persistent mid-term consumer confidence issues, compounded by political strife, making sustained economic recovery unlikely [2][3] - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, as the economic rebound indicators have already been priced in by the market [3] - For the small-cap sector, despite a relative strength in style, the recommendation remains to maintain a low position, with a focus on the mid-cap range from CSI 500 to CSI 1000 [3]

Group 1 - The market has entered a correction phase, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.18%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.57%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.10% last week, indicating a negative trend influenced by both internal and external factors [2][4] - The automotive industry performed well, ranking second in weekly gains, just behind the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - Domestic economic indicators show a mismatch between strong export performance and weak domestic production and consumption, indicating a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy, which is still experiencing a wave of recession [3][4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a strengthening downtrend in the market, with both the main board and small-cap sectors showing signs of adjustment, leading to a cautious stance on investments in these areas [4] - The U.S. is facing renewed trade tensions, particularly with the EU, which adds to the global economic risks and complicates the investment landscape, suggesting that the current geopolitical climate may not favor Chinese companies as indirect beneficiaries [3][4] - The recommendation for the main board and small-cap sectors remains low positions to mitigate risks, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a recommendation to reduce positions in the market, particularly in the main board and small-cap sectors, due to signs of a potential market reversal and weakening economic fundamentals [1][5]. - The recent market rebound is noted, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.12% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76%, but the overall trend is seen as reversing after a series of gains [2][4]. - Economic indicators show a weakening trend in the domestic economy, with M1 growth significantly below market expectations, reinforcing the view that the economic performance in April was impacted by tariff shocks [3][4]. Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the recent market movements are driven by speculative trading rather than institutional or public fund adjustments, with a significant withdrawal of speculative funds observed [4][5]. - The current market conditions are compared to those of May 2012, suggesting a high similarity in technical characteristics, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [4][5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector is also advised to keep a low position due to the relative weakness observed [5]. Group 3 - The analysis highlights the impact of recent U.S. economic news, including the rejection of a tax cut proposal and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which are expected to have negative implications for the U.S. economy and, consequently, for global markets [3][4]. - The focus on the automotive industry is suggested as a short-term momentum model to watch, indicating potential opportunities despite the overall cautious stance [5].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.60% [2] - A joint meeting of multiple ministries announced a new round of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at supporting the economy and the stock market, but the impact is expected to be less than last year's measures [3][4] - The recent import and export data revealed significant shocks, with exports showing a notable decline and imports experiencing an unusual surge, potentially indicating a "importing through Hong Kong" behavior [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that a right-side sell signal has been confirmed, with institutional funds continuing to flow out despite the market's rebound [4] - The overall economic impact is evident, and while policies have been implemented, their effectiveness remains uncertain, leading to a recommendation for low positions in the main board to mitigate risks [4] - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the banking sector as a potential area of interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a reduction in tactical discipline while strategic discipline is being selectively applied, with a recommendation for low positions in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - Last week, the market saw a slight decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.49%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.08 [2]. - The stabilization forces in the market are beginning to weaken, and while small-cap sectors showed some strength in Q1 earnings, their sustainability remains in question [2]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is facing the first wave of impact from the tariff war, with Q1 earnings reports showing a lack of significant improvement, particularly in the banking sector, which underperformed market expectations [2]. - The April official PMI data indicates a significant weakening trend, supporting the view that the Chinese economy will confront challenges from the tariff war [2]. - In the U.S., despite stable monthly employment data, leading indicators suggest a decline starting in May, and the recently disclosed Q1 GDP turned negative, indicating an impending recession [2]. Technical Analysis - Tactical discipline is beginning to weaken, as evidenced by the reversal in the banking sector's trend following the April Politburo meeting and Q1 earnings reports [3]. - The overall technical outlook remains cautious, with institutional funds continuing to flow out of small-cap sectors [3]. - The A-share Q1 earnings, while relatively stable, are viewed as a small rebound within a mid-term downward trend, necessitating defensive positioning ahead of potential economic shocks [3]. Investment Strategy - For the main board, the recommendation is to maintain low positions as the positive impacts of Q1 economic data and earnings have already materialized, while the second quarter's tariff war effects are still unfolding [3]. - For small-cap sectors, despite better Q1 earnings compared to the main board, concerns about the sustainability of the recovery remain significant, thus low positions are advised [3]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as automotive and home appliances [3].

观点简述： 上周市场全周继续微涨趋势，沪深300指数周涨幅0.38%，上证综指周涨幅0.56%，中证500指数 周涨幅1.20%。市场维持了少见的窄幅震荡状态，资金重点期盼重要会议的方向指引。 每周思考总第626期 《 久盘滞涨，建议再降仓 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月27日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 基本面上，美国经济数据的割裂度不断提升。 国内方面，上周央行MLF超额续作，但市场重点 关注的财政与货币刺激政策时间表依旧未能在4月政治局会议中有明确指示，这也意味着4月关税冲击 对国内经济基本面的影响或将难免；海外方面，美国继续披露各维度经济数据，各条线数据分化有所 扩大，如成屋销售继续低迷但新房销售重回高位、就业PMI维持弱势但失业人数保持平稳、最为矛盾 的是消费同比保持高增但消费者信心与投资者信心都已跌至过去4年新低，美国经济基本面的锚定指 标出现如此巨幅分化走势是 ...

每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...