2025年，中国历经动荡。年初，中国面临地缘政治逆风与内需疲软的双重压力；去年4月，新关税政策 与贸易摩擦引发了数十年来最重大的贸易冲突。 然而，局势在去年11月迎来转折。中国年度贸易顺差突破1万亿美元，创下历史新高；国内生产总值 （GDP）增速稳定在5%左右，似乎已经摆脱"去全球化"的阴霾。 2026年，中国将面临怎样的挑战？尽管媒体焦点仍集中在美国总统特朗普的关税政策或中国的房地产困 境，但更深层的趋势正在重塑中国未来的经济走向。跨国企业在中国市场正面临新挑战，本土企业竞争 力日益增强是其中之一，但机遇依然存在。在这个全球第二大经济体应对风云变幻的国际经济环境之 际，以下五个核心问题至关重要。 关税不确定性将如何重塑跨国企业的在华战略？ 凭借成本优势与一体化供应链，中国在全球制造业中长期占据主导地位。即便2025年美国加征关税后， 关税税率最终稳定在50%左右，这一优势仍未动摇。 关税并未对中国贸易造成显著冲击：中国出口占国际市场份额稳定在14%左右，是印度与越南两国总和 的四倍。 图片来源：Wand Zhao—AFP via Getty Images 原因在于中国已实现贸易伙伴多元化。目前，对美商品出口 ...

Core Insights - The IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, particularly in the tech sector, with strong investor demand and liquidity, although the overall activity remains below historical levels [1][5][6] - Private companies are maintaining high valuations and leveraging their positions to avoid going public, a privilege limited to top-tier firms [1][3] - M&A activity is expected to dominate the market, with significant acquisitions anticipated, particularly in the AI and biotech sectors [7][8] IPO Market - The IPO market is expected to continue its upward trend into 2026, driven by strong performance and investor appetite for tech assets [5][6] - There is a backlog of companies ready to go public, but a significant trigger is needed to accelerate the listing process [6] - Smaller companies face challenges in the IPO process unless there are major reforms to improve efficiency and reduce costs [6] M&A Market - A notable acquisition in the AI software sector exceeding $50 billion is predicted, reshaping the market landscape [7] - The fintech industry is entering a consolidation phase, with companies acquiring smaller competitors to enhance their market position [7] - Biotech firms are expected to see a resurgence in M&A activity, particularly from large pharmaceutical companies with substantial cash reserves [7][8] Private Market Trends - The secondary market for private investments is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected transaction volume of $250 billion in 2026 [8] - There is a trend towards mergers among venture-backed startups as they seek growth avenues to achieve public or private equity exits [8] - Offerings for buyouts will extend beyond large private firms, as medium-sized companies also seek to retain talent through acquisition offers [8]

Core Viewpoint - Mexico is cautiously accepting the expansion of Chinese automotive companies in the country, following a more welcoming stance from Canada, which presents a challenge for the U.S. as Chinese automotive brands extend their industrial layout into neighboring territories [1]. Group 1: Chinese Automotive Companies' Expansion - Two major Chinese automotive companies have reached the final selection stage to bid for the Nissan-Mercedes-Benz factory in Mexico [3]. - A total of four Chinese automotive companies are involved in the bidding process, but they have not disclosed any information regarding the matter [4]. - The Nissan-Mercedes-Benz factory in Aguascalientes, Mexico, has a designed annual capacity of 230,000 vehicles but has never operated at full capacity, with a utilization rate below 60% [4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the Mexican Automotive Industry - Mexico is the world's fourth-largest exporter and seventh-largest producer of light vehicles, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with 2.8 million out of 4 million vehicles produced in 2024 expected to be exported to the U.S. [4]. - The imposition of a 25% tariff on cars produced in Mexico by the Trump administration has led to a projected decline of nearly 3% in exports to the U.S. by 2025 [4]. - The chairman of the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA) warned that if current tariffs persist, exports to the U.S. could see a more significant drop by 2026, resulting in a loss of 60,000 jobs in the automotive sector by 2025 [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Chinese Brands - The growth of the Chinese automotive industry has fueled ambitions for global market expansion, with projections indicating that by 2025, Chinese brands will sell 30.42 million vehicles globally, surpassing Japan for the first time [7]. - In Mexico, the market share of Chinese automotive brands is expected to rise from 0% in 2020 to approximately 10% by 2025 [7]. - Mexico serves as a strategic hub for Chinese companies to penetrate the North American market, with local investments creating much-needed jobs [7]. Group 4: Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The Mexican government has raised tariffs on imports from countries without free trade agreements, including China, with rates reaching up to 35% [9]. - The core purpose of the recent tariff increases appears to be to appease the Trump administration, which has led to heightened tensions in Mexico-China trade relations [9]. - Recent direct talks between Chinese and Mexican officials indicate ongoing discussions about bilateral trade relations amidst the backdrop of Chinese automotive companies bidding for the factory [9].

街道两旁林立着两 层独栋住宅。图片来源：KEVIN CARTER—GETTY IMAGES 尽管2月11日公布的就业报告比预期好，但21世纪面临着更严峻也更不容忽视的事实，即劳动者从经济 蛋糕中分得的份额越来越小。事实上，这一趋势已持续加速近50年。 《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）首席经济评论员格雷格·伊普指出，根据美国商务部数据， 2025年三季度国内生产总值中员工工资和福利的占比降至51.4%，低于1980年的58%。同一时期，企业 利润，或者说用于企业扩张或支付所有者的剩余现金占比则从6%一路上升到近12%。 美国新闻网站Axios分析相关数字后得出，工资占比下降的部分折合为1.2万美元，也就是说普通美国人 每年少赚了这么多钱。美国劳动者每年因此损失的薪酬总计约2万亿美元。这意味着，如果没有损失， 年收入中位数本可以提升近20%。 "这毫无疑问加剧了贫富差距，也导致收入中位数长期停滞，"乔治城大学（Georgetown University）劳 动经济学家哈里·J·霍尔泽告诉《财富》。 国会预算办公室的报告发现，市场收入特别是资本收益是导致差距扩大的主要推手。自动化趋势 ...

Core Insights - Meta has quietly acquired approximately 1,400 acres of land in Richland Parish, Louisiana, nearly double the size of Central Park in Manhattan, to expand its existing AI data center project, known as the Hyperion project [1][4] - The expansion reflects the rapid growth of AI infrastructure across the U.S., with major cloud service providers competing for land, power, and funding to build large-scale AI data centers [4][6] - Meta's financial preparations for the Hyperion project indicate a long-term, multi-phase development plan, with total development costs expected to reach $27 billion [5][6] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Meta's new land acquisition is adjacent to the existing Hyperion AI data center, which originally spans 2,250 acres, and the combined area will exceed twice the size of New Orleans' Louis Armstrong International Airport [1] - Construction activities have already begun on the newly acquired land, with indications that the purchase was made approximately three to four months ago [1] Project Scale and Employment - The Hyperion project is set to cost $10 billion and will cover over 4 million square feet, with plans for three new natural gas power plants to meet energy demands, costing an additional $3 billion [4] - The project currently employs over 3,700 construction workers, with expectations to increase to 5,000, and will create 500 long-term full-time jobs in the economically challenged area [4] Strategic Importance - Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg has emphasized the company's commitment to becoming a leader in AI infrastructure, with plans to build tens of gigawatts of computing power over the next decade [7] - The Hyperion project is a critical component of this strategy, aiming to secure the necessary computational power for developing advanced AI models [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, which fell by 1.4%, marking its largest drop since November of the previous year. This decline is attributed to fears surrounding AI's impact on various sectors, raising concerns that AI may no longer be a growth engine but rather a "valuation crusher" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index experienced a notable increase in abnormal stock fluctuations, with over 40 stocks showing deviations exceeding three standard deviations, indicating a potential collapse of market confidence [3]. - The logistics sector was heavily impacted, with C.H. Robinson experiencing an eight-fold standard deviation drop, leading to a "death spiral" of automated stop-loss orders and panic selling [3]. - Major tech companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, were significant contributors to the index's decline, with Amazon hitting a nine-day losing streak, marking its longest since 2006 and entering a technical bear market [3][4]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Employment and Market Sentiment - A statement from Microsoft's AI CEO suggested that most white-collar jobs could be fully automated within 18 months, causing immediate market panic and a sell-off of stocks related to potentially disrupted industries [4]. - The market's fear extends to the return on investment for massive capital expenditures by tech giants, with a combined projected spending of $650 billion on AI infrastructure by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, raising concerns about their financial health [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Pricing Power - Chinese AI companies have made significant advancements, launching competitive products that challenge the pricing and performance of existing models, which could reshape global investor expectations [5][6]. - The emergence of low-cost AI solutions, such as MiniMax's M2.5 model, threatens the pricing power of established tech giants, leading to a reevaluation of their market positions and business models [8]. - The article highlights a shift from a positive growth narrative to a negative cycle of demand shrinkage and profit contraction, as AI efficiency gains may lead to reduced overall employment [7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs warns that if the S&P 500 index falls below 6707 points, it could trigger systemic sell-offs amounting to $80 billion, indicating a fragile market environment [8]. - The current market situation serves as a "stress test" for business models in the AI era, determining which companies can adapt and which may struggle to maintain their competitive advantages [8].

"七大科技巨头"过强，导致被动型投资者一向青睐的指数基金成了一个高风险的投资工具。 霍华德・西尔弗布拉特是一名已经退休的标普道琼斯指数高级分析师。他近日指出，标普500指数作为 美股风向标，虽然它去年的表现不像前几年那样高光，但仍实现了16.39%的涨幅，剔除通胀因素后仍 高于10%的年平均回报率。 但凡事不能只看表现。标普500看似涨势喜人，但它主要是靠几家头部公司拉动的，其中就包括所谓 的"科技七巨头"。过去几年间，它们一直是美股上涨的核心动力。整个美股市场的增长引擎高度集中， 这对指数基金而言无疑是坏消息。过去几十年，指数基金凭借其安全性，一直是被动投资者的首选，但 是现在它们的风险水平却攀升到了一个高位。 出指数基金已经出现了"非分散化"风险。 比如先锋领航旗下跟踪标普500指数的全市场基金VFIAX的招股书显示，受市场高度集中化的影响，该 基金在某些情况下可能会从法律层面被认定为一支"非分散化"的基金。 不过THG证券咨询公司的联合创始人扎克・莱文尼克认为，这种情况本质上是由于市场格局发生了改 变，而非指数基金本身出现了问题。 他在接受《财富》采访时称："当前股市的集中度处于长期以来的高位，这意味着 ...

在米兰-科尔蒂纳冬奥会的赛场上，所有目光都聚焦于美国队。但无论输赢，所有美国奥运选手与残奥 选手都将带着一份奖励回家。 亿万富翁罗斯·史蒂文斯已承诺，为每位美国奥运选手提供20万美元，帮助他们在运动生涯结束后获得 一定的经济保障。 不仅仅是20万美元支票那么简单 这笔奖励的发放较为复杂，并非美国队从米兰归来后就能立即拿到这张20万美元支票。 运动员将在45岁时，或在其首次获得奥运参赛资格20年后（以较晚的时间点为准）领取首笔10万美元。 另一笔10万美元则作为身后保障，在其去世后发放给家人。运动员每参加一届奥运会，都可获得相应资 格，该奖励计划将持续资助至2032年澳大利亚布里斯班奥运会。 需要注意的是，这份奖励附带一项重要条件：运动员在生前领取的10万美元将被视为应税收入，这与奖 牌得主获得的现金奖励不同。金牌得主可获奖金37,500美元，银牌可获22,500美元，铜牌可获15,000美 元，这些奖金免征联邦税，但本身并不构成持续性收入来源。 2026年2月11日，在米兰-科尔蒂纳冬奥会女子自由式滑雪雪上技巧颁奖仪式上，美国队金牌得主伊丽莎白·莱姆利与银牌得主杰琳·考夫合 影留念。图片来源：Michael ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Dingdong Maicai by Meituan for $717 million is primarily a defensive move to secure market position rather than a strategic expansion opportunity [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Meituan announced the acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for $717 million (approximately 5 billion RMB) on February 5, 2026 [1]. - Dingdong Maicai operates over 1,000 front warehouses in China and has over 7 million monthly shopping users as of Q3 2025 [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Dingdong Maicai's founder described the acquisition as a merger of two strong entities, indicating a shift from competition to collaboration [3]. - The acquisition price of $717 million is considered low compared to Dingdong Maicai's peak market valuation of over $5 billion post-IPO in 2021 [3]. - The purchase is seen as a way for Meituan to prevent competitors from utilizing Dingdong Maicai's resources, rather than leveraging Dingdong's operational capabilities [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The acquisition signifies the end of the "Warring States" period in China's fresh food e-commerce sector, with previous models like front warehouses and community group buying being absorbed by larger players [4]. - The shift in the market dynamics indicates a move towards monopolization as venture capitalists exit, leading to increased dominance by major companies [4]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Integrating Dingdong Maicai into Meituan poses significant operational challenges, including managing a large workforce and complex supply chain logistics, which may negatively impact Meituan's overall profit margins [4]. - The cultural and operational differences between Meituan's platform-based model and Dingdong's asset-heavy approach could lead to difficulties in integration [4]. Group 5: Regulatory Considerations - The acquisition is subject to antitrust review, with potential penalties for delays in the transaction completion, including a $150 million termination fee if Meituan is at fault [5][6]. - Meituan has previously faced regulatory scrutiny and fines for market dominance, which adds complexity to the current acquisition [6].

农历新年前，中国创新药企业达成的几笔交易，给经历一轮上涨又陷入漫长蛰伏的板块带来暖意。 2026年以来，中国创新药对外授权交易总金额在短短四十多天里已超过300亿美元，首付款规模已超去 年全年单季度最高水平。数字之外，创新药BD（业务拓展）模式的调整，也映射出了中国企业在产业 链中能力与角色的变迁。 即便MNC当前对中国创新药资产的主动性需求更强，且白宫回应称并未"积极考虑"该草案，但BD作为 中国企业当前发展逻辑的关键一环，变幻莫测的地缘政治因素仍然会掣肘中国创新药行业。 图片来源：视觉中国 上周末，信达生物与礼来制药宣布达成新一轮全球战略合作，双方将共同推进肿瘤及免疫领域创新药物 的全球研发。根据协议，信达生物将获得3.5亿美元首付款。在达成后续特定里程碑事件后，信达生物 还有资格获得总额最高约85亿美元的研发、监管及商业化里程碑付款。 这是这家中国创新药公司与礼来的第七次合作。与以往不同的是，本次合作并未围绕公司已有的成熟分 子展开，而是针对尚未成型的新想法，MNC（跨国制药巨头）是为信达生物的早期研发平台和效率付 费，进行"端到端"的全球研发共建。 信达生物将运用其抗体技术平台，主导药物的早期研发，至 ...