花旗分析师因TPU竞争加剧将英伟达目标价下调至200美元，预计2026年GPU销售额将因此减少约120亿美元。具体来看，2026年XPU市场将实现53% 的同比增长，显著超越AI GPU销售额34%的同比增速。这一增长主要由谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的产能爬坡推动。 XPU市场增速将超越GPU，但GPU仍将主导AI计算市场 花旗预计： 2026年XPU市场将实现53%的同比增长，显著超越AI GPU销售额34%的同比增速。这一增长主要由谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的产能爬坡推动。 分析师预计，2026年GPU销售额将因此减少约120亿美元（Meta将贡献约20亿美元的GPU销售额减少，其余约100亿美元的影响来自其他客户转向 XPU解决方案）。这对英伟达先前2320亿美元的2026年商用GPU销售额预测造成约5%的冲击。 博通与大型科技公司在AI芯片领域的合作加深，正对英伟达的GPU业务构成实质性威胁。 花旗分析师因TPU（张量处理单元，用于加速机器学习）竞 争加剧将英伟达目标价下调至200美元，预计2026年GPU销售额将因此减少约120亿美元。 花旗分析师表示，博通上周公布的XPU（ 各种处理单元的总称，包括TPU ...

荷兰光刻设备巨头ASML将通过领投法国AI初创公司Mistral AI的20亿美元C轮融资，成为这家欧洲AI明星企业的最大股东，此举旨在加强欧洲科技主权 地位。 ASML斥资13亿欧元入股Mistral AI，成为法国AI独角兽最大股东。 ASML此次大手笔投资Mistral AI，展现了这家全球光刻机龙头企业对人工智能领域的战略重视。作为承担17亿欧元融资轮中的主要份额，ASML不仅将 成为Mistral的最大股东，还将获得董事会席位，在公司治理中拥有重要话语权。 这笔13亿欧元的投资对于ASML而言意义重大。作为半导体制造设备的核心供应商，ASML通过投资AI公司，能够更好地理解和预判人工智能芯片的技 术发展趋势，为其未来的设备研发提供重要参考。 Mistral正在敲定的20亿欧元投资将使公司估值达到120亿欧元。这一估值相比2024年6月的58亿欧元实现了翻倍增长，反映了投资者对这家法国AI公司 前景的看好。 自成立以来，Mistral已累计融资超过10亿欧元，投资方包括Andreessen Horowitz、General Catalyst、Lightspeed Venture Partners、法国 ...

马斯克旗下SpaceX同意以约170亿美元现金加股票的方式，收购EchoStar公司的AWS-4和H-block频谱许可证。消息传出后，EchoStar股价在周一盘 前交易中一度飙升64%，年初至今飙升近200%。 这笔交易与EchoStar最近向AT&T出售频谱的交易一起，预计将解决FCC的相关调查。据媒体此前报道，联邦监管机构一直在推动EchoStar出售部分频 谱资源。 EchoStar此前曾跳过债券付款并考虑申请破产，称FCC的调查阻碍了其对5G网络的决策能力。上个月，该公司同意以约230亿美元向AT&T出售频谱许 可证。 SpaceX将支付最多85亿美元现金和最多85亿美元的SpaceX股票。消息传出后，EchoStar股价在周一盘前交易中一度飙升64%，年初至今飙升近 200%。 这项交易预计将解决美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)对EchoStar频谱使用情况的调查。FCC今年早些时候启动审查，质疑EchoStar是否履行了其无线和卫星 频谱权利的义务。 收购完成后，SpaceX将获得关键的2GHz频段资源，有助于其星链业务拓展直连设备服务。截至6月，星链已在100多个国家拥有约500万用户，远超竞 ...

贝森特质疑就业数据可靠性，称近期数据存在噪音，可能面临修正，指出8月是就业数据"最嘈杂的月份"，并批评美联储政策滞后。他预计即将公布的非 农年度修正可能下调80万岗位。面对制造业已失去4.2万岗位的现实，贝森特承认制造业复苏需要时间。 9月7日，据媒体报道，贝森特在接受NBC《Meet the Press》节目中强调，"特朗普总统因变革而当选，我们将推进让经济重回正轨的经济政策。 我相 信到第四季度我们将看到大幅加速 。" 贝森特的这一表态正值白宫因最新的非农数据显示就业增长大幅放缓而遭受批评之际。美国劳工部9月5日公布的数据显示，8月份新增就业仅为2.2万 个，失业率升至4.3%，这是连续第四个月令人失望的就业数据。 面对穆迪分析公司等机构经济学家发出的雇佣趋势放缓和制造业就业岗位流失的警告，贝森特认为 近期数据存在噪音，可能面临修正，指出8月是就业 数据"最嘈杂的月份" ，他同时批评美联储政策过于滞后。贝森特还 预计9月9日公布的非农数据年度修正可能会抹去拜登政府时期报告的多达80万个就 业岗位 。 在制造业就业问题上，贝森特承认，自特朗普政府4月宣布全面关税政策以来，美国已失去4.2万个制造业岗位。面对 ...

据知名科技记者古尔曼爆料，Apple Intelligence最早也要到今年年底才能上线，意味着该功能将无缘随iPhone 17在中国市场首发；全新轻薄机 型"iPhone 17 Air"预计将完全取消实体SIM卡槽、全面转向eSIM，这将使其在中国大陆的销售变得困难"，不排除"受到限制或推迟"的可能。 据知名科技记者马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）的最新报道，苹果的AI套件"Apple Intelligence"将无缘随iPhone 17在中国市场首发。尽管苹果仍在积极 推进其在华落地， 但目前预计的上线时间最早也要到今年年底，这意味着新机发售初期将缺少一个关键的核心卖点。 与此同时，预计将在9月10日发布会上成为亮点的全新轻薄机型"iPhone 17 Air"， 可能因其仅支持eSIM卡的设计而在中国市场遭遇准入难题。 古尔曼 称，这一硬件规格可能导致该机型在中国的发布"受到限制或推迟"，直到苹果与运营商找到解决方案。 根据计划， 苹果原本希望在年中通过iOS 18.6系统更新将Apple Intelligence引入中国，但这一进程被一再推迟。 据了解，目前，苹果在技术层面（如iOS 18.5系统 ...

然而，这种优势可能不会持久。Kostin 同时指出，他预计小盘股的优异表现在未来12个月内不会持续。这表明，虽然市场广度有望在短期内改善，但 投资者对于长期布局仍需保持审慎。 策略师David Kostin认为，迄今为止的美股涨势由少数股票驱动，市场广度狭窄，这为小盘股等板块的"追赶式"上涨留下了空间。美联储即将到来的降 息周期和企业盈利回升，将增加涨势从少数龙头股向更广泛市场扩散的可能性。 以 David Kostin 为首的策略师团队近日指出，迄今为止的美股涨势由少数股票驱动，市场广度狭窄，这为小盘股等板块的"追赶式"上涨留下了空间。他 们认为，美联储即将到来的降息周期和企业盈利回升，将增加涨势从少数龙头股向更广泛市场扩散的可能性。 高盛重申了其标普500指数的年底目标位为6600点。这一看涨观点也得到了华尔街同行的呼应，摩根士丹利的 Michael Wilson 同样预计美股将进一步 上涨，并指出美国经济正向"早期周期"阶段过渡，这将支持企业盈利实现"持久而广泛"的复苏。 尽管市场情绪乐观，但上周弱于预期的非农就业报告也引发了部分投资者的担忧。有观点认为，股市估值已"消化了完美预期"，而疲软的经济数据给 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that investors should consider when diversifying their portfolios with commodities, particularly gold, which is recommended as the "highest-conviction long" investment [1][3]. Commodity Diversification Value - Since spring, the market has shifted from tariff uncertainty to tariff realities, stabilizing economic activity indicators and reducing the probability of a U.S. recession. Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes that the appeal of commodities as a diversification tool has increased due to slowing employment growth and high economic downturn risks [4]. Commodity Index Outlook - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario indicates that the commodity index is expected to yield only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months [5]. Gold and Other Commodities Outlook - The firm maintains a bullish outlook on gold (due to strong central bank purchases), copper (driven by electricity, infrastructure, and defense demand), and U.S. natural gas (liquefied natural gas exports), while expecting current oversupply in the oil market to worsen [6]. Federal Reserve Independence Risk - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the risk of diminished Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to rising inflation, falling long-term bond prices, declining stock prices, and a weakened dollar reserve currency status. In contrast, gold remains a reliable store of value not dependent on institutional trust [7]. Commodity Supply Concentration Risks - Increased concentration in commodity supply poses significant risks, with key commodities being sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions. This situation has led to frequent supply disruptions, heightened price volatility, and rising imported inflation [8]. Structural "3D Trends" Supporting Long-term Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends (De-risking energy, Defense spending, Dollar diversification) are systematically tightening commodity market supply and demand [10]. 1. De-risking Energy - Global energy security policies are driving a surge in grid investments, significantly increasing copper demand. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, grid-related investments will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth, with copper prices expected to reach $10,750 per ton by 2027 [11]. 2. Increased Defense Spending - Military spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel, providing substantial support for metal prices [12]. 3. Central Bank "De-dollarization" - Since the freezing of Russian dollar assets in 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged fivefold, driving a 94% increase in gold prices since then. Emerging Asian countries are expected to continue significant gold purchases for several years, creating a long-term institutional demand for gold [13].

Core Viewpoint - Institutional investors in the US stock market are experiencing significant divisions, with optimists betting on AI and pessimists concerned about economic slowdown and market concentration risks. Regardless of their stance, there is a strong consensus on bullish sentiment towards gold, with a record high in bullish intentions and a long-to-short ratio close to 8:1. Additionally, interest in the Chinese market remains strong, with over 60% of respondents planning to maintain or increase their positions in Chinese stocks [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The sentiment among global institutional investors is notably split, with a recent Goldman Sachs survey indicating that the bullish camp continues to pursue gains in AI-driven tech stocks, while the bearish camp is increasingly wary of economic growth slowdown and market concentration risks [3][4]. - Over half of the respondents plan to maintain or increase their long positions in the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, although there is a slight decline in new capital inflows into this trade, indicating some changes beneath the surface [5]. Group 2: Gold Investment - Gold has emerged as the most uncontroversial investment choice, with the ratio of bullish to bearish investors reaching nearly 8:1, marking gold as the most favored long trade in Goldman Sachs' survey for the first time. This unprecedented interest in gold surpasses that of developed market equities [6]. - Both bullish investors anticipating a Fed rate cut and bearish investors seeking safe-haven assets view gold as an ideal allocation, supported by demand from central banks and potential private investors [6]. Group 3: Chinese Market Interest - Investor interest in the Chinese market is on the rise, with 62% of respondents planning to maintain or increase their positions in Chinese stocks, reflecting heightened attractiveness following a strong summer rebound [7]. - When asked about the performance comparison between the S&P 500 and the MSCI China, opinions were nearly evenly split, indicating that interest in the Chinese market is now on par with that of the US market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a return to a "Nixon-era" economic environment in the U.S., driven by political pressure on the Federal Reserve to adopt yield curve control (YCC) as a monetary policy tool, which could create opportunities for gold, digital currencies, and bonds while negatively impacting the dollar [1][2][5]. Group 1: Political Pressure and Historical Parallels - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly urged the Federal Reserve to return to "moderate long-term interest rates," criticizing unconventional policies for exacerbating inequality and threatening the Fed's independence [2][4]. - Hartnett draws parallels between the current situation and the early 1970s Nixon administration, where political pressure led to significant monetary easing [5][7]. - The market perceives Yellen's comments as a signal for the Fed to take a more active role in managing long-term interest rates, indicating a potential major shift in U.S. monetary policy [4][6]. Group 2: Yield Curve Control (YCC) as a Policy Tool - Hartnett predicts that rising global bond yields will force policymakers to intervene, potentially leading to the implementation of YCC to control government financing costs [8][9]. - The current environment shows that risk assets are reacting mildly to rising yields, as the market anticipates central bank intervention [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett recommends a clear trading strategy: go long on bonds, gold, and digital currencies, while shorting the dollar until the U.S. commits to implementing YCC [10]. - The first step involves going long on bonds, as YCC would artificially lower bond yields, creating significant upside potential for bond prices [11]. - The second step is to go long on gold and cryptocurrencies, which serve as hedges against currency devaluation resulting from YCC [12]. - The third step is to short the dollar, as the announcement of unlimited money printing to lower domestic rates would undermine the dollar's international value [13]. Group 4: Long-term Risks - Hartnett warns that the current favorable trading window may lead to significant long-term risks, similar to the inflation and market crash that followed the Nixon-era monetary policies [15].

Core Viewpoint - The August employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating future discussions on rate cuts [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The June employment data was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs. The net job loss in the latest report was 21,000 [6]. - Over the past three months, the average monthly job growth in the private sector was 29,000, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began. The average job growth over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. Labor Market Insights - The June job growth marked the end of a 53-month streak of monthly non-farm employment growth, the second-longest on record, significantly shorter than the 113-month streak that ended with the COVID-19 pandemic [9]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [10]. Wage Growth Analysis - The comprehensive weekly wage index, a good monthly indicator of nominal income growth, rose by 4.4% year-over-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle. The three-month annualized growth rate was revised down from 4.6% to 2.4% [13]. Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate in August, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324%. Federal Reserve officials previously projected that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [15].