随着英伟达(NVDA.US)即将发布其2026财年第四季度财务报告，瑞银集团在最新的研报中指出，该芯片巨头目前的业绩发布背景条件依然"有利"。 瑞银分析师指出，尽管市场近期对AI硬件需求的持续性以及利润率压缩存在担忧，导致英伟达股价表现相对平稳，但这种情绪反而为即将到来的 业绩发布降低了预期门槛，为超预期的财务表现和股价反弹埋下了伏笔。该行分析师蒂莫西·阿库里重申"买入"评级，并将目标价从235美元上 调至245美元。 阿库里在客户报告中写道："鉴于股价表现不温不火、供应链信号仍显乐观，以及管理层似乎对围绕增长与利润率可持续性的普遍质疑感到沮 丧，此次财报的背景设定显得积极——尤其是随着我们即将在下月迎来GTC大会。" 瑞银对英伟达业绩的乐观信心主要源于强劲的供应链信号以及关键产品的产能释放。根据该行对亚洲供应链，尤其是中国台湾地区1月份出口数 据的分析，自动数据处理相关设备的出口额在传统淡季中实现了逆势增长，这直接反映了全球数据中心对AI基础设施的旺盛需求。 与此同时，英伟达新一代Blackwell架构芯片的产能正处于加速扩张期，瑞银预计该系列产品在第四季度将贡献约90亿美元的收入，成为拉动业 绩超预期的核 ...

这家原东芝集团旗下的内存业务公司正受益于AI热潮带来的行业格局变化。铠侠预计本财年营业收入将达到7095.7亿日元至7995.7亿日元，远 高于彭博一致预期的5254.7亿日元。净利润预期为4537.6亿日元至5137.6亿日元，同样大幅超过市场预期的3207.5亿日元。净销售额预期区间 为2.18万亿日元至2.27万亿日元，高于市场预期的2万亿日元。 尽管第三季度实际业绩略低于市场预期，但该公司强调闪存市场需求正在因AI应用而扩张，数据中心和企业级服务器需求持续增长，而PC和智 能手机市场也因新AI模型的推出保持强劲。公司表示由于数据中心需求大幅增加， 预计需求将超过供应。 铠侠发布的年度业绩预测远超市场预期，营业收入与净利润目标较分析师预测高出约 35% 至 60%。尽管三季度业绩略逊预期，但受益于 AI 驱 动的数据中心及企业级服务器需求爆发，NAND 闪存市场已步入强劲复苏周期，供需格局反转推动产品价格显著上涨，公司财务状况亦持续改 善。 日本闪存制造商铠侠发布的全年业绩预测远超市场预期，凸显AI应用驱动的数据中心需求正在重塑NAND闪存市场格局。 该公司预计营业收入 和净利润将较分析师预期高出约35 ...

I Just Returned From China. We Are Not Winning. 本文作者史蒂文·拉特纳先生是一位特约评论员，曾在奥巴马政府担任财政部长的顾问。 几周前在纽约，我参加了一个讨论美国贸易的晚宴，谈话很快转到了中国问题上。一些资深专家 持截然相反的立场：一些人支持特朗普总统强硬、激进的立场，而另一些人则主张采取不那么对 抗、更为常规的方式。 人力资本是中国成功的关键因素。我接触过无数年轻的中国创业者，他们的活力和才智至少可以 与硅谷的同行相媲美，其中一位中国亿万富翁至今仍睡在办公室里。 尽管特朗普先生大肆宣扬关税，但我们并没有赢得这场贸易战。这个亚洲巨头依然稳居世界最大 出口国之列，其贸易顺差去年更是创下1.2万亿美元的纪录。这一整体增长表明，许多中国商品 仍然在抵达美国，只是经过了中间国。无论是否征收关税，每个人都需要中国商品。 以汽车为例。在我的旅途中，我参观了小米公司，这家智能手机和电子产品制造商五年前才宣布 进军电动汽车行业。在一个几乎空无一人的庞大厂房里，体型庞大的机械装置，看起来像是机器 恐龙，毫不费力地将铝制面板推到位，而汽车则沿着生产线缓缓驶来。大厅里停着一辆黄色跑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vertiv's stock surged nearly 25% following the announcement of exceptional quarterly results, driven by a significant increase in organic orders and a strong backlog, indicating a robust market position in the AI infrastructure sector [1][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Vertiv reported a staggering 252% year-over-year increase in organic orders, with a backlog reaching $15 billion, more than double from the previous year [6][21]. - The company's order-to-bill ratio stood at 2.9, suggesting that for every $1 of revenue, there were nearly $3 in new orders [6][24]. - Adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 is projected at $6.02, representing a 43% increase, with organic sales expected to grow by 28% to approximately $13.5 billion [7][36]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Americas remain the core growth engine, with a projected organic growth rate of over 30% for 2026, following a 46% increase in 2025 [8][36]. - Despite a 14% decline in sales in the EMEA region in Q4, management noted signs of recovery, likening the market sentiment to a spring being released [8][22]. - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 9% decline, but growth is anticipated in India and other areas, with a moderate growth rate expected in China [8][23]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions - Vertiv announced a significant increase in capital expenditures from 2-3% of sales to 3-4% by 2026 to support capacity expansion [10][26]. - The company will cease quarterly disclosures of actual orders and backlog data, opting to provide this information annually to reduce short-term volatility and focus on long-term delivery capabilities [11][24]. - CEO Gio Albertazzi emphasized the importance of the CDU (Cooling Distribution Unit) in complex thermal management systems, asserting its irreplaceability amid technological debates [9][10]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Vertiv's leadership in liquid cooling technology is underscored by its ability to manage complex thermal systems, which is increasingly critical as AI infrastructure demands grow [9][10]. - The company is actively expanding its service capabilities, with a 25% year-over-year increase in lifecycle service orders, enhancing its competitive advantage [29][100]. - The acquisition of PurgeRite has strengthened Vertiv's fluid management capabilities, crucial for modern data centers and AI facilities [29][100].

财报显示，AppLovin Q4营收16.6亿美元（+66%）及EBITDA利润率（84%）均超预期，但因市场担忧AI颠覆及Meta竞争，股价盘后大跌。公司CEO 强硬回应称市场情绪与现实脱节，强调AI带来的内容爆发将使公司的流量分发能力更加稀缺，并指出竞价密度的增加反而提升了平台收益。 在一份堪称"完美"的成绩单面前，华尔街却选择了抛售，这迫使"AI应用热股"AppLovin CEO在电话会上直言："市场情绪与我们的业务现实之间存在严 重的脱节。" 2月11日，"AI应用热股"、移动营销技术公司AppLovin发布了2025年第四季度及全年财务报告。尽管核心财务指标全面碾压华尔街预期，且给出的2026 年一季度指引依旧强劲，但受市场对AI颠覆游戏开发及巨头竞争的担忧影响，公司股价在盘后交易中大幅下挫。 业绩炸裂：利润率比肩顶级SaaS，指引暗示高增长持续 财报显示，AppLovin第四季度营收达到16.6亿美元，同比增长66%，高于分析师预期的16亿美元；每股收益（EPS）为3.24美元，同样击败了华尔街 共识预期的2.95美元。 更为亮眼的是其盈利能力，调整后EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）达到14亿美 ...

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's fourth-quarter revenue reached $7.01 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $6.83 billion, driven by promotional strategies that attracted budget-conscious consumers [1][3] Financial Performance - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter was $3.12, surpassing the expected $3.04 [3] - Comparable store sales increased by 5.7% year-over-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, with U.S. same-store sales jumping 6.8%, marking the fastest growth in over two years [5][13] - Total revenue for the year was $26.885 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase [19] - Operating income for the year was $12.393 billion, up 6% year-over-year [19] - Net income for the year was $8.563 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year [19] Promotional Strategies - The successful reintroduction of the popular Monopoly game and the launch of a "The Grinch" themed meal contributed to record single-day sales [6] - The focus on affordability has improved customer traffic and spending, as highlighted by CEO Chris Kempczinski [15] Market Context - Economic uncertainty has led U.S. consumers to prioritize affordability, impacting spending behavior across the food and household goods sectors [9][15] - McDonald's performance stands out in a fast-food industry experiencing overall slowdown, with competitors like Chipotle and Yum Brands facing challenges [12] International Performance - International operations recorded a 5.2% comparable sales growth, with positive growth across nearly all markets, particularly in the UK, Germany, and Australia [16] - The international development franchise market grew by 4.5%, with Japan leading the performance [16] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company reported strong cash flow, with operating cash flow reaching $10.551 billion, significantly up from $9.447 billion the previous year [18] - Free cash flow was $7.186 billion, an increase from $6.672 billion in 2024, supporting shareholder returns and strategic investments [18] Digital Strategy and Customer Engagement - The loyalty program saw significant growth, with system sales reaching nearly $37 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, and active users growing to nearly 210 million [22] - The digital transformation has enhanced customer engagement and provided valuable consumer data for targeted marketing [23]

美光CFO表示，公司已开始HBM4芯片的量产和出货。这一表态了缓解了市场对其在HBM4领域落后竞争对手的担忧。大摩大幅上调美光目标价，并表示 SK海力士虽将在第一季度向英伟达供应HBM4，但美光从第二季度开始也能实现供货，时间差距并不显著。大摩预计存储芯片第一季度将出现新一轮大 幅涨价。 美光高管在行业会议上就下一代高带宽内存芯片的竞争力发表积极表态，缓解了市场对其在HBM4领域落后竞争对手的担忧。这一表态叠加华尔街分析 师上调目标价，推动存储芯片板块整体走强。 隔夜，美光首席财务官Mark Murphy在会议上表示，公司已开始HBM4芯片的量产和出货。"我们对HBM表现感到非常兴奋，"Murphy说。这一表态直接 回应了市场对美光在HBM4竞争中可能落后于SK海力士和三星电子的疑虑。 摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore周三将美光目标价从350美元大幅上调至450美元，维持增持评级。Moore指出，虽然SK海力士将在今年第一季度向英 伟达供应HBM4产品，但美光应能从第二季度开始实现同样目标。 HBM芯片需求激增是美光股价过去12个月上涨超过三倍的重要推动力，美光股价周三上涨6.6%至410.34美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco's Q2 earnings report exceeded market expectations, driven by growth in AI business, but the stock fell due to lackluster profit margin guidance and conservative earnings forecast for the upcoming quarter [1][7]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $15.3 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $15.1 billion. Net profit rose from $2.43 billion to $3.18 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.04, better than the expected $1.02 [3]. - AI infrastructure demand significantly boosted Cisco's core networking business, with orders from hyperscale data center providers reaching $2.1 billion, up from $1.3 billion in the previous quarter. Core networking revenue grew by 21% to $8.3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $7.9 billion [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Cisco's CEO Chuck Robbins stated the company is uniquely positioned to provide reliable infrastructure for the AI era, with expectations of $5 billion in AI orders from hyperscale data centers for the fiscal year 2026. Cisco announced a partnership with AMD for an AI infrastructure project in Saudi Arabia and launched new network switches featuring NVIDIA chips [5]. - The revenue contribution from "new cloud" providers is expected to become more significant in the second half of the fiscal year and even more so by fiscal year 2027 [6]. Profit Margin Concerns - Cisco's forecast for Q3 adjusted EPS is between $1.02 and $1.04, aligning with the market median of $1.03. However, the projected adjusted gross margin of 65.5% to 66.5% is significantly below the analyst average expectation of 68.2%, raising investor concerns [7]. - Following the earnings report, Cisco's stock dropped over 7%. The company faces challenges from storage chip shortages affecting multiple product lines and rising component costs due to high demand for NVIDIA GPUs [8]. Future Outlook - Cisco's revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter is projected between $15.4 billion and $15.6 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $15.2 billion. For the full fiscal year 2026, Cisco raised its revenue forecast to between $61.2 billion and $61.7 billion, corresponding to a growth rate of approximately 8.5%, with adjusted EPS expected between $4.13 and $4.17, surpassing previous estimates [9].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about AI leading to the demise of the software industry are significantly exaggerated, according to executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR. They acknowledge that while AI will bring about a "dramatic technological cycle" and disruption, established software companies are likely to be protected and may even benefit from these changes [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Software Industry Outlook - The recent sell-off in the software sector was triggered by fears that AI could replace traditional software functions, leading to significant declines in stock prices for major companies like Salesforce and Adobe, resulting in the evaporation of hundreds of billions in market value [3][6][8]. - Executives from major financial institutions argue that the market's reaction is an "indiscriminate" sell-off, and the belief that all software companies will become obsolete is overly broad and unfounded [3][9][10]. - Apollo's John Zito stated that while the software industry will not disappear, its business logic will change, emphasizing that the usage of software is expected to increase significantly [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Risks and Diversification - KKR's CFO Robert Lewin indicated that approximately 15% of their private equity investments are exposed to software companies, which represents about 7% of their total assets, suggesting a manageable risk exposure [11]. - Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon downplayed the risk exposure in software investments, stating it is "insignificant" relative to the overall scale of their platform [13]. - The executives emphasized the importance of diversification in their investment portfolios to mitigate the impact of potential disruptions in the software sector [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's has achieved its fastest sales growth in over two years in the U.S. during the fourth quarter, driven by value meals appealing to cost-conscious consumers [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4, McDonald's revenue reached $7 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by $160 million [2] - Adjusted earnings per share were $3.12, surpassing forecasts by $0.07 [2] - Comparable sales at existing U.S. restaurants grew by 6.8% compared to the same period last year, marking the highest growth rate in 2023 [2] - The company's adjusted profit also exceeded average expectations, with comparable sales in its two international segments also outperforming forecasts [2] Group 2: Expansion and Strategy - McDonald's aims to achieve a global target of 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027, with an accelerating pace of new openings [3] - The company is focused on re-establishing its position as an affordable dining option in the wake of rising prices post-pandemic, with Q4 performance indicating success in this strategy [3] - CEO Chris Kempczinski noted that the focus on affordability has improved customer traffic in Q4, aided by successful marketing campaigns [3] Group 3: Product Performance and Market Share - The Grinch meal performed exceptionally well, contributing to what the company described as the highest sales day in its history [4] - McDonald's gained market share among low-income consumers in December, with momentum from value meals continuing into January [4] - The company plans to introduce new beverages this year following a pilot of a small drink concept called CosMc's [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Despite challenges, McDonald's is gaining market share as consumers adjust their spending habits due to rising costs [5] - Competitor Yum Brands reported better-than-expected sales, largely driven by Taco Bell's strong performance with its low-priced menu items [5] - Chipotle Mexican Grill indicated strong performance in early 2026, although it provided a pessimistic outlook for the full year due to disruptions from a winter storm [5]