据2月13日周五的报道，SpaceX正考虑在IPO中采用双重股权结构，赋予特定股东额外投票权。这一安排将使马斯克即便持有少数股权，也能 保持对公司的绝对控制。知情人士称，公司目前还在增加董事会成员，以此协助推进上市进程，并推动马斯克在核心火箭及卫星业务之外的太空 野心。 周五稍早的报道称，马斯克合作的银团正在商讨一项融资方案，旨在重组SpaceX与xAI合并后产生的债务问题。因为收购现名为X的推特并创立 人工智能（AI）开发公司xAI，马斯克累计背负了近180亿美元债务。这项尚未最终定稿的融资交易预计将在IPO前帮助合并后的巨头减轻债务重 负。 这两项举措凸显了SpaceX在上市前面临的复杂挑战：既要保护创始人的决策权，又要处理好与高风险AI业务合并后的财务包袱，同时向投资者 推介一个清晰的增长故事。 双重股权结构将赋予特定股东额外投票权，使马斯克即便持有少数股权，也能保持对公司的绝对控制；马斯克合作的银团在商讨一项融资方案，旨在重组 SpaceX与xAI合并产生的债务，马斯克通过收购原名推特的X并创立xAI积累了近180亿美元债务。 双重股权护城河 新近报道显示，SpaceX正为今年晚些时候的IPO做最后冲 ...

分析指出，虽然英伟达和AMD股价波动幅度不算巨大，但Ullal的评论意义重大。 自三年多前OpenAI推出ChatGPT、人工智能行业起飞以来，英伟达 一直主导着AI GPU市场。 目前，英伟达在AI芯片市场的份额约为90%，潜在挑战者包括AMD，以及谷歌。谷歌的TPU也正在获得越来越多的采用。英伟达目前是美国市值最高 的公司，市值超过4.5万亿美元。AMD市值约为3350亿美元。 在周四晚间的财报电话会上，当被分析师问及公司与AMD的合作情况时，Arista首席执行官Ullal表示："一年前，基本上99%都是英伟达，对吧？而今 天，当我们查看部署情况时，大约有20%，甚至略高一些，约20%至25%的项目中，AMD正成为首选加速器。"英伟达股价周五盘中下跌近3%，而AMD 上涨接近1%。 周五，英伟达与AMD的股价走势出现分化，此前Arista Networks首席执行官在财报电话会议上表示，公司正看到部分部署转向AMD。 英伟达股价周五盘中下跌近3%，而AMD上涨接近1%。 在周四晚间的财报电话会上，当被分析师问及公司与AMD的合作情况时，Arista首席执行官Ullal表示："一年前，基本上99%都是英伟 ...

Core Viewpoint - Soros Fund Management made significant adjustments to its investment portfolio in the fourth quarter, focusing on increasing exposure to tech giants while engaging in "buy high, sell low" strategies for energy and cryptocurrency stocks [1]. Group 1: Technology Sector Investments - The fund substantially increased its holdings in core technology stocks, including adding 161,000 shares of Microsoft (MSFT.US), 118,000 shares of Nvidia (NVDA.US), and approximately 66,000 shares of Apple [3]. - In the software and mobility sectors, the fund also increased its positions by acquiring approximately 216,000 shares of Atlassian (TEAM.US), 55,000 shares of Salesforce (CRM.US), and 119,000 shares of Uber (UBER.US) [3]. Group 2: Defensive and Growth Investments - In the defensive sector and consumer space, the fund increased its holdings in utility company Exelon (EXC.US) by approximately 488,000 shares and in gaming giant Electronic Arts (EA.US) by about 318,000 shares [3]. Group 3: Reduction in High Volatility and Financial Stocks - The fund reduced its positions in high-volatility and financial stocks, significantly cutting approximately 168,000 shares of Snowflake (SNOW.US) [4]. - It also reduced its holdings in Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US) by about 151,000 shares and in Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) by approximately 813,000 shares, indicating a cautious stance towards the financial brokerage sector [5][6]. Group 4: New Positions and Exits - The fund opened new positions by purchasing gold-related assets such as New Gold (NGD.US) and established positions in DigitalBridge (DBRG.US), Blue Owl Capital (OWL.US), Exact Sciences (EXAS.US), and Xcel Energy (XEL.US) [7]. - It completely exited positions in KeyCorp (KEY.US), CareTrust REIT (CTRE.US), Cipher Mining (CIFR.US), and KKR & Co. (KKR.US), indicating a shift away from traditional banking and certain cryptocurrency mining stocks towards more stable or defensive sectors [7]. Group 5: Overall Strategy - The overall strategy of Soros Fund Management in the fourth quarter reflects a clear approach: embracing AI and core tech assets like Microsoft and Nvidia while avoiding high-volatility cloud and data companies like Snowflake, and hedging against macroeconomic uncertainties by investing in gold stocks. This "pick and choose" adjustment strategy highlights the pursuit of certainty and safety margins amid global economic uncertainties [7].

高盛推出一项新的软件股多空组合，做多那些业务难以被人工智能取代、或直接受益于AI需求增长的公司，同时做空可能被自动化或被企业内部替代的 软件企业。此前随着Anthropic等公司推出面向法务和税务的AI工具，引发相关软件股大幅下跌，市场对生成式AI冲击商业模式的担忧正在加剧。 随后，这轮抛售继续扩大。一家知名度不高的初创公司Altruist推出了一款税务策略工具，在过去一周内导致Charles Schwab、LPL Financial等公司股 价下跌超过10%。 媒体称，华尔街对软件股的怀疑情绪已经积累了数月，但最近的市场态度已从谨慎转向明显防御。随着市场担心生成式AI可能侵蚀传统商业模式并压缩利 润率，投资者纷纷抛售整个行业的股票。 这轮抛售也重置了估值水平。一年前，软件股的市盈率大约为51倍，是股票市场中估值最高的行业。而如今，该行业的市盈率约为27倍。 在做多一侧，高盛看好那些将直接受益于AI采用率上升的企业，包括算力提供商、数据基础设施公司、可观测性工具、安全网络公司、超大规模云服务商 以及AI开发平台等。该组合纳入的公司包括Cloudflare、CrowdStrike、Palo Alto Netwo ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock has entered a technical bear market, marking the second company in the Mag7 group to do so, driven by investor resistance to aggressive AI spending plans [2] Group 1: Amazon's Stock Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $198.79, down over 23% from recent highs, officially entering bear market territory on Thursday [2] - Amazon plans to spend $200 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, the highest among the four major cloud service providers [2] - The total expected capital expenditure in AI by Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet by 2026 is projected to reach $650 billion [2] Group 2: Meta and Microsoft's Market Position - Meta is close to entering a bear market, with a cumulative decline of 19.6% from last year's peak, just 0.4% away from the 20% threshold [2] - Despite exceeding Wall Street expectations for Q4 revenue and earnings, Meta's increased AI spending and pressure on profit margins have undermined investor confidence [2] - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock down 27.8% from recent highs following disappointing Azure cloud business growth [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Recent sell-offs highlight the growing divergence among Mag7 members, with investors shifting away from OpenAI-related stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia towards Alphabet and Broadcom [4] - Alphabet's vertically integrated technology stack has somewhat mitigated concerns over excessive spending, allowing it to avoid the worst impacts of the tech stock sell-off [4] - Increased capital expenditure levels for Amazon may lead to negative free cash flow this year, prompting the company to seek additional capital through debt markets [4] - The next significant catalyst for AI stocks is expected to be Nvidia's earnings report on February 25, which will indicate whether the AI boom is cooling or if Nvidia is successfully capturing billions in investments from its largest clients [4]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase reported a significant net loss of $667 million in Q4, with revenue declining by 20% to $1.8 billion, primarily due to a cooling crypto market. However, the company saw strong performance in institutional business and derivatives, with subscription service revenue reaching a record high of $2.8 billion, driven by USDC growth [1][3][8]. Financial Performance - Coinbase's Q4 revenue fell to $1.8 billion, a 20% decrease year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [3][8]. - The company recorded a net loss of $667 million, contrasting sharply with a net profit of $1.3 billion in the same quarter last year [3][8]. - Total trading volume for the year reached $5.2 trillion, a 156% increase year-over-year, with market share in crypto trading doubling to 6.4% [8]. Revenue Breakdown - Trading revenue for Q4 was $983 million, down 6% quarter-over-quarter, with consumer trading revenue dropping 13% to $734 million [9][13]. - Institutional trading revenue increased by 37% to $185 million, despite a 13% decline in institutional spot trading volume [13]. - Subscription and service revenue reached $2.8 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with USDC-related income contributing significantly [16]. Market Dynamics - The overall decline in trading income reflects challenges faced by the entire cryptocurrency exchange industry, with competitors like Gemini and Robinhood also reporting significant revenue drops [8][9]. - Coinbase's stock price surged nearly 17% following the earnings report, attributed to low investor expectations and bottom-fishing activities [3][5]. Strategic Initiatives - Coinbase is focusing on diversifying its revenue streams, with a strong emphasis on subscription services and institutional trading to reduce reliance on retail trading [11][12]. - The company is expanding its workforce, increasing full-time employees by 3% to 4,951, primarily in customer service and product teams [24]. Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, Coinbase provided cautious revenue guidance, expecting subscription service revenue to be between $550 million and $630 million, lower than Q4 levels due to declining interest income and staking rewards [28]. - The company has initiated a substantial stock buyback program, repurchasing $895 million in shares since early 2026, with an additional $2 billion authorized for buybacks [30]. Regulatory Environment - Upcoming stablecoin legislation in the U.S. may impact Coinbase's revenue-sharing arrangements with Circle, potentially affecting income from USDC [19].

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is making a significant bet on artificial intelligence by issuing $100 billion in century bonds, which raises questions about the sustainability of its business model given the long-term nature of the debt [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Market Reaction - The bond issuance was oversubscribed by 10 times, indicating strong demand from investors despite historical concerns associated with century bonds [3][4]. - The issuance reflects ongoing investor confidence in large tech companies, even as they may have lost some of their previous "cult-like" status [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Risks - Historical comparisons are drawn with other companies that issued century bonds, many of which faced significant challenges or bankruptcy, such as JCPenney and General Motors [3]. - The key question raised is whether Alphabet can maintain its dominance and continue to innovate over the century-long term of the bonds [3][6]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The significant role of large tech companies in major indices suggests that their performance has important implications for the broader market [5]. - The success of the bond issuance is contingent on Alphabet's ability to remain a disruptive force in the industry for generations to come [6].

高盛认为，AI视频生成领域非"赢家通吃"，快手可灵与字节即梦均将受益于市场扩张。预计全球AI视频生成市场将从2025年30亿美元增至2030年290亿 美元，增长10倍。AI技术将重塑娱乐业价值链，使其向上游IP设计和分发平台转移，这些环节将获得更高附加值。 尽管字节跳动旗下即梦近期推出的Seedance 2.0引发了市场高度关注，但高盛认为，AI视频生成领域并非"赢家通吃"的零和游戏，快手可灵与字节跳动 即梦2.0等头部模型都将从快速扩张的市场中受益，且AI技术的进步将重塑整个娱乐行业的价值分布。 2月13日，在字节即梦2.0于2月12日正式向公众开放后，投资者对两大平台的竞争格局高度关注。高盛分析师Lincoln Kong、Ronald Keung及Luqing Zhou在最新研报中表示，可灵3.0在2月5日升级，较即梦2.0提前数日推出，两者均在音视频一致性、视频时长（15秒）及叙事控制方面实现重大突 破。 尽管部分测试者认为即梦2.0在流畅度和多场景连贯性上表现更优，但高盛强调，可灵3.0在影视级细节和定价优势上仍保持竞争力，且在第三方基准测 试中持续位居全球顶级模型行列。 更重要的是，该行预计全球A ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite delivering better-than-expected Q4 results and guidance, AppLovin (APP.US) saw a decline of 19.68% in its stock price due to market concerns over the crowded AI space and increased competition from Meta (META.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and CloudX in in-game advertising. However, most analysts remain optimistic, believing that growth drivers such as e-commerce self-service platforms are yet to be fully realized [1]. Group 1: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's analyst Matthew Cost's team noted that Meta's Audience Network has been a long-term bidding partner for AppLovin's advertising supply side, and the incremental bidding for IDFA traffic is not a new variable [3]. - AppLovin believes the current competitive landscape is vastly different from five years ago when Meta dominated, with improved advertising effectiveness and closed-loop data advantages creating a competitive moat. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating, lowering the target price from $800 to $720, focusing on e-commerce business ramp-up in the first half of 2026 and the rollout of web self-service tools [4]. - Jefferies also maintains a "Buy" rating, reducing the target price from $860 to $700, citing that gaming stocks are being sold off due to indiscriminate pricing of AI risks. Analyst James Heaney's team mentioned that the self-service general advertising tool is on track for release in the first half of this year, but AppLovin is cautiously advancing its e-commerce scaling rather than rushing to launch [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - AppLovin's CEO Adam Foroughi addressed competition during the earnings call, stating that despite the emergence of new competitors in the MAX bidding system, such as Unity (U.US) and Liftoff, AppLovin's market position remains strong. He attributed this to the company's large scale and expertise, as well as its superior model for assessing the true value of ad exposure [5]. - Competitor Unity continued its downward trend, falling 26% on Wednesday and an additional 8.2% on Thursday [6].

Daishin Securities估计，从2026年第一季度开始，针对北美客户的修订定价政策将生效，ASP预计环比提升约50%。这标志着铠侠摆脱历史遗留 约束的关键时刻，也是移动NAND价格正常化的拐点。摩根士丹利更为激进地预计，铠侠一季度ASP将环比飙升近90%，调整后毛利率将达到 66%。铠侠翻身更为整个NAND行业释放了强劲信号，高盛预期三星电子和SK海力士盈利能力将大幅改善。 日本存储芯片制造商铠侠正在摆脱长期压制其盈利能力的定价困境。在AI推理需求推动、供应纪律增强和产能受限的多重因素下，NAND闪存市场 正迎来史无前例的涨价周期，铠侠的突破性定价调整标志着行业格局的重要转折。 Daishin Securities最新指出，铠侠从2026年第一季度开始执行修订后的定价政策，预计北美主要客户的平均销售价格(ASP)将环比飙升约50%。这标 志着铠侠终于打破了此前因长期合同约束而被迫以低于市场水平供货的局面，也意味着移动NAND ASP正在恢复正常水平。 摩根士丹利的数据更为激进。该行将铠侠2026日历年ASP涨幅预期从同比增长75%大幅上调至超过100%，并预计一季度ASP将环比飙升近90%，随 后 ...