Core Viewpoint - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with net purchases of 49 tons in October, significantly above the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tons, indicating a long-term strategy to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1][3][5] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the substantial increase in gold purchases by central banks is a long-term trend, driven by the need for reserve asset diversification to mitigate rising geopolitical and financial risks [5][6] - The report indicates that the average monthly purchase by central banks is expected to remain at 70 tons through 2026, providing solid fundamental support for the gold market [6] Private Investor Impact - Private investors are viewed as a key variable that could amplify gold prices, with a potential significant effect if their interest in gold increases [7] - Goldman Sachs' model suggests that a 1 basis point (0.01%) increase in gold holdings within U.S. private financial portfolios could lead to a price increase of approximately 1.4% [7] - Currently, gold ETFs represent only 0.17% of U.S. investors' portfolios, indicating substantial room for growth in private investment in gold [7][8] Tokenized Gold - The impact of "tokenized gold," such as Tether Gold, on the recent rise in gold prices is considered limited, with its demand significantly smaller compared to traditional channels like gold ETFs and central bank purchases [9] - Tokenized gold is viewed as a potential substitute for gold ETFs rather than a major new source of demand, although it remains a trend worth monitoring [9]

因博通令人失望的业绩指引和甲骨文项目延迟的传闻，投资者信心遭受重创，引发市场剧烈抛售。博通股价周五重挫12%，费城半导体指数重挫 5%创下数月最大跌幅，股市的抛售甚至蔓延到债券市场，AI巨头的债券收益率溢价大幅跃升。这场连锁反应或许正在拷问：对于承诺中的AI回 报，市场还有多少耐心？ 市场的恐慌情绪迅速蔓延，美股七巨头Mag7股票的表现远逊于标普500指数中的其他493公司。 更关键的是，这场冲击波不仅限于股票市场， 债券交易员也纷纷采取行动，减少对该行业的风险敞口。根据MarketAxess的数据，投资者持有甲骨文公司债券所要求的收益率溢价大幅跃 升。 而这场抛售由两记重拳引燃。 首先，芯片设计商博通在周四盘后公布了财报，尽管销售额创下历史新高，但其对AI业务的收入预测未能满足华 尔街的极高期望。 其次，甲骨文刚公布完不及预期的财报后，其为ChatGPT所有者OpenAI建设的部分数据中心，又被曝完工日期可能从2027年推迟至2028年， 这直接引发了市场对AI基础设施建设速度的质疑。 这一系列连锁反应凸显出AI叙事对当前市场的关键重要性，它足以拖累整个大盘，并向投资者提出了一个核心问题：对于承诺中的AI回 ...

TS Lombard首席经济学家Stephen Blitz认为，美联储重启资产负债表购买操作，实质是为财政部支出提供融资保障，两大机构资产负债表实正走 向"合并"。随着Kevin Hassett等潜在继任者进入美联储，贝森特实际上将成为他的"老板"，财政部将主导融资策略，即通过短端注入流动性压低融资 成本，而这种廉价资金策略将推高2026年通胀。 周日，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Stephen Blitz撰文指出，美联储即将迎来一场巨大的颠覆。随着财政部与美联储的界限日益模糊，两大机构的资 产负债表实际上正在走向"合并"，而财政部长贝森特在这一新架构中扮演关键角色，成为实质上的"影子联储主席"。 Blitz表示，美联储最新的政策信号表明，其正在重启资产负债表购买操作，计划于1月开始购买400亿美元的国库券并在2月进一步增加。尽管官方说法 是为应对总账户（TGA）在4月的膨胀及管理货币市场利率，但这一举措的实质是美联储承诺为财政部支出提供融资保障，确保存款机构融资不会出现 利率波动。 这一转变不仅意味着美联储将平抑市场波动，更标志着市场向政府发出的"支出超载"信号将失效。在这种架构下，未来的政策协调将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex and potentially catastrophic financial arrangements within the AI industry, drawing parallels to the financial crisis of 2008, highlighting the risks associated with high levels of debt and interlinked financial structures among major tech companies [5][6][10]. Company Analysis - CoreWeave, a relatively unknown company, has emerged as a significant player in the AI sector, achieving the largest tech IPO since 2021 and doubling its stock price. It has secured major contracts worth $220 billion with OpenAI, $140 billion with Meta, and $60 billion with Nvidia [5][6]. - Despite its impressive contracts, CoreWeave operates at a loss, projecting $5 billion in revenue against $20 billion in expenses for the year. The company has accumulated $14 billion in debt, with over half due within a year, and faces $34 billion in lease obligations by 2028 [6][7]. Financial Structures - The financial model of CoreWeave relies heavily on a few key clients, with Microsoft accounting for 70% of its revenue, and Nvidia and OpenAI contributing an additional 20%. This creates a precarious dependency on a limited customer base [7]. - The AI industry's financialization is driven by the high costs of infrastructure needed for AI systems, with data center spending expected to exceed $400 billion this year and potentially reach $7 trillion by 2030. Creative financing methods are essential to support these investments [8][10]. Interconnectedness and Risks - Major companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and others are forming intricate financial relationships, often involving equity stakes in exchange for future profits, which obscures the true financial health of these companies [8][9]. - The article warns that if the anticipated AI revolution does not materialize as expected, the financial ties binding these companies could lead to widespread economic repercussions, potentially more severe than the dot-com bubble burst [10][11]. Debt and Financial Instruments - The AI sector is accumulating significant debt, with estimates suggesting it could reach $1.5 trillion by 2028. This high leverage poses risks to the broader financial system if defaults occur [11][14]. - Companies are utilizing complex financial instruments, such as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and asset-backed securities, to obscure debt levels and manage financing, reminiscent of practices leading up to the 2008 crisis [12][13]. Regulatory Environment - The article highlights concerns over the lack of regulatory oversight for private equity firms involved in AI financing, which could exacerbate risks in the event of a market downturn. The interconnectedness of private credit and traditional financial institutions raises alarms about potential systemic risks [14][15]. - Recent regulatory rollbacks may expose a broader public to the risks associated with AI financing, contrasting with the more reactive approach taken during the 2008 crisis [15][16].

Europe must be ready when the AI bubble bursts 市场调整将使欧盟有机会提供一种基于信任的替代方案，以取代美国的技术。 © 安·基尔南 本文作者是斯坦福大学以人为本人工智能研究所的研究员，著有《科技政变》一书。 美国新国家安全战略的一大启示是，华盛顿对一个强大的欧盟——无论是作为单一市场、民主集 团，还是至关重要的科技监管机构——都极为担忧。与此同时，欧洲人经常听到美国人说欧洲在人 工智能竞赛中落后。超大规模模式被奉为圭臬，而欧洲根本缺乏与之竞争的资源。 但美国主导的资源密集型人工智能平台泡沫无法持久。市场调整将促使人们关注其他模式。这反过 来又将为欧洲创造新的机遇，欧洲在应用人工智能领域拥有优势，并有机会构建全球最值得信赖的 人工智能技术栈。 德国汽车制造商并不需要一台训练有素、涵盖整个互联网信息的聊天机器人。它受益于基于高质量 工程数据训练的人工智能系统，这些系统能够优化制造流程、预测维护需求或简化安全报告。荷兰 医院需要的是符合医疗标准的诊断工具，而不是可能产生医疗错误信息的通用系统。而法国银行则 需要能够在遵守严格的金融服务监管规定的同时，提升效率的人工智能 ...

Rare Earths Aren't Rare for Everyone The four decades that China spent building dominance in the small world of critical minerals is proving frustratingly hard to overcome. 中国花了四十年时间在关键矿产这个小世界里建立起主导地位，要克服这一优势却令人沮丧地困 难。 几十年来，美国一直乐于将稀土供应链外包给中国。毕竟，开采和分离这些金属成本高昂且对环 境有害，而从国外购买则更为便宜。但如今，决策者们急于改变这一决定。 "过去几十年我们一直努力构建的世界市场如今正在瓦解，我们正在回归区域经济模式，" NioCorp Developments Ltd. 首席执行官马克·史密斯说道。该公司计划在内布拉斯加州建设 一座稀土矿。史密斯表示，尽管NioCorp正在与特朗普政府洽谈资金事宜，但该公司尚未公布何 时能够开始商业化生产的具体时间。 高昂的成本和漫长的审批流程长期以来使得在美国建造像史密斯设想的那种新矿山成为一项巨大 的挑战。在美国，从发现矿藏到 ...

Group 1: Key Investment Themes - Goldman Sachs identifies five key investment themes for 2026, including the transition in the AI investment cycle, the impact of the Federal Reserve leadership change on the dollar, the strategic reassessment of commodities, the necessity of portfolio diversification, and structural changes in the European market [3][4]. Group 2: AI Investment Cycle - The current AI investment cycle is compared to a modern "space race," with significant funding directed towards AI research. However, the era of broad-based AI asset appreciation may be ending, leading to increased differentiation among beneficiaries [6][4]. - Companies providing infrastructure for AI, such as computing hardware and data centers, are expected to remain attractive, while the market will become more discerning in identifying true beneficiaries of AI advancements [6][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Change - The anticipated appointment of Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair could mark a turning point, allowing the economy to "run hot" and potentially leading to a sustained weakening of the dollar [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant depreciation of the dollar by 2026, with the dollar index already showing signs of weakness [8][12]. Group 4: Commodity Investment - In a weakening dollar environment, specific commodity investments, particularly in copper, are becoming increasingly attractive. By 2030, over 60% of copper demand growth is expected to be driven by global power grid and infrastructure needs, equivalent to adding another U.S. demand level [14][15]. - The strategic value of copper is not yet fully recognized by the market, and ongoing mergers and acquisitions may lead to a reassessment of valuations in the near future [15]. Group 5: Portfolio Diversification - Given the high valuation of U.S. equities relative to global markets and the potential for a structurally weaker dollar, diversification is becoming essential for investors to maintain exposure to equities [16][17]. - Strong performance in non-U.S. markets, particularly in the UK and France, suggests that diversification strategies have been validated in 2025 [18][19]. Group 6: European Market Opportunities - The year 2025 is referred to as a "global inflection point," with the U.S. industrial strategy potentially reshaping global asset allocation [20]. - Despite challenges, the European market presents opportunities, as external pressures are driving substantial changes within Europe, making it a focal point for diversified investments [21][24].

德银认为，当前AI热潮并非单一泡沫，而是由估值、投资、技术三重泡沫交织。公开市场巨头估值有盈利支撑，而私营公司估值已极度高企。天量投资 由现金流驱动，非债务扩张，但复杂循环融资与潜在技术瓶颈埋下风险。AI需求强劲且成本骤降，但能源与芯片供应或成最终制约。 站在2025年12月的时间节点，距离ChatGPT发布仅过去三年，市场对于"AI泡沫"的讨论已至沸点。德意志银行认为，当前AI热潮既不是完全的泡沫，也 不是毫无风险，关键在于区分不同类型的"泡沫"。 12月12日，德银在最新研报中创新性地将AI泡沫分为估值泡沫、投资泡沫和技术泡沫三个维度进行分析。 报告称， 公开市场大型科技公司的估值有盈利支撑，投资增长符合趋势且由现金流推动，技术进步仍在持续。真正的风险集中在估值过高的私营公 司、可能失控的循环融资结构，以及潜在的技术瓶颈和供应限制。 估值泡沫：估值分化揭示真实风险所在 德银的核心观点是当前AI热潮并非单一泡沫，而是由三种不同性质的泡沫构成。 在估值维度 ，报告显示希勒周期调整市盈率（Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio）已超过40，接近2000年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's aggressive investment in AI positions it as a critical indicator of whether the tech industry is experiencing genuine growth or a speculative bubble [1][26]. Group 1: The "Stargate" Project - The "Stargate" project, the largest cloud computing deal in history, originated from a LinkedIn message from OpenAI to Oracle, leading to a partnership that significantly boosted Oracle's market value [3][7]. - OpenAI committed approximately $300 billion to lease servers from Oracle, necessitating the construction of multiple large-scale data centers [10][14]. - Oracle's stock surged by $250 billion following the announcement of the Stargate project, temporarily making its co-founder Larry Ellison the world's richest person [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Pressures and Market Reactions - Oracle's stock price has dropped over one-third from its peak, and the company reported negative free cash flow for the first time since 1992 [4][6]. - The financial strain is exacerbated by rising costs for materials and labor, with Oracle needing to invest hundreds of billions upfront for data center construction [13][14]. - Analysts predict Oracle will face approximately $70 billion in free cash flow losses over the next four to five years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its aggressive strategy [14][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Decisions - Microsoft, a long-time partner of OpenAI, has expressed concerns about the capacity demands from OpenAI, leading to a decision to allow OpenAI to seek other cloud providers [17][18]. - The relationship dynamics between Oracle and OpenAI are critical, as OpenAI's growth trajectory directly impacts Oracle's financial health and stock performance [15][21]. - Analysts suggest that Oracle's heavy investment in AI could be a double-edged sword, with potential scenarios ranging from a downward revision of forecasts to a complete collapse of the partnership with OpenAI [25]. Group 4: Industry Implications and Future Outlook - The tech industry is at a crossroads, with Oracle's fate serving as a bellwether for the broader market's health regarding AI investments [1][26]. - The speculative nature of AI investments raises questions about their long-term viability, especially as transformative advancements remain elusive [26]. - Oracle's significant commitment to AI could either lead to substantial rewards or expose the company to severe risks if the anticipated growth does not materialize [24][26].

据英国《金融时报》报道，戴蒙在闭门会议中分析指出，若哈赛特当选，他极有可能会迅速降低 短期利率 ，以配合特朗普的经济诉求。然 而，美联储只能控制短端利率， 长期利率 （如10年期美债收益率）则由市场定价。 戴蒙警告称，由于市场担心哈赛特缺乏独立性且过于依附白宫，这种激进降息反而会点燃通胀预期。届时，由市场定价的 长端利率 （如10年 期美债收益率）将因投资者抛售债券而飙升。 换言之，白宫试图通过换人来降低融资成本的算盘，极可能被债券市场的"义警"打翻。 市场已经在为这种风险定价。自11月下旬媒体报道哈赛特成为领跑者以来，作为全球资产定价之锚的10年期美国国债收益率已从4.0%跳升至 4.2%。与此同时，债市交易员对通胀的焦虑正在升温——衡量长期通胀预期的关键指标"5年之5年"远期通胀互换利率（5y5y forward inflation swap）近期上涨了0.06个百分点，创下一个月新高。 戴蒙直言，沃什将成为一位"伟大的主席"，并警告称，另一位热门候选人凯文·哈赛特可能更顺从白宫的降息意愿，但这恰恰可能引发市场的反 向博弈，导致长期借贷成本不降反升，损害美联储至关重要的独立性。 周四，华尔街最有权势的银行 ...