Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive guide to the Lunar New Year celebrations in 2026, emphasizing the significance of the Year of the Horse and detailing various traditions and customs associated with the festival [1][3]. Group 1: Lunar New Year Overview - The Lunar New Year, considered the most important festival for the Chinese and global Chinese communities, begins on February 17, 2026, marking a 15-day celebration [3]. - The Chinese zodiac operates on a 12-year cycle, with each year represented by an animal; 2026 is the Year of the Horse, following the Year of the Snake in 2025 and preceding the Year of the Goat in 2027 [4]. Group 2: Traditions and Customs - Common practices during the Lunar New Year include wearing red clothing, hanging red banners, and setting off firecrackers to ward off evil spirits, stemming from the legend of the "Nian" monster [12]. - Preparations for the festival begin about a week before, with activities such as making festive cakes and cleaning the house to remove bad luck from the previous year [15][19]. - The New Year's Eve dinner features dishes symbolizing good fortune, such as fish and dumplings, with variations in regional cuisines across China [23][26]. Group 3: Celebration Activities - The first few days of the Lunar New Year are dedicated to visiting family and friends, exchanging gifts, and distributing red envelopes filled with money to unmarried individuals, believed to bring good luck [30][31]. - The seventh day of the Lunar New Year is celebrated as "Renri," or the birthday of humanity, with various traditional foods prepared [34]. - The festival culminates in the Lantern Festival on March 3, 2026, marking the end of the celebrations and symbolizing the arrival of spring [36][39].

达利欧宣告世界进入"大周期"第六阶段：1945年后的世界秩序已瓦解，强权即公理，大国冲突将回归原始权力博弈，贸易战、技术战、资本战将常态化 并可能升级为军事冲突。慕尼黑安全会议共识印证这一判断：旧秩序已不复存在，欧洲安全架构失效。达利欧警告经济工具将被武器化，传统避险逻辑可 能失效，黄金成为最可靠的财富贮藏手段。 全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达利欧2月14日发布重磅长文， 正式宣告世界已进入"大周期"的第六阶段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时 期。 达利欧的核心观点在于，二战后建立的1945年世界秩序已彻底瓦解，大国之间的冲突将不再受国际法约束，而是回归原始的权力博弈。他警告称， 这 一阶段通常伴随着内部动荡与外部战争的交织，直至新的秩序在冲突中确立。 据达利欧引用的最新动态，在2026年2月14日举行的慕尼黑安全会议上，全球主要领导人已就"旧秩序的终结"达成罕见共识。德国总理默茨直言"维持数 十年的世界秩序已不复存在"，并指出自由在这一新时代不再是理所当然的。法国总统马克龙呼应了这一评估，警告欧洲旧有的安全架构已失效，必须 备战。美国国务卿Marco Rubio则明确表示，世界已进入"新地缘政治时代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting focus from whether AI investments are worthwhile to whether the capital expenditures of major cloud companies can be sustained, as concerns over excessive spending, cash flow pressures, and rising debt levels lead to significant market value losses for the top four cloud providers [2][3][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Valuation - Following the latest earnings reports, the combined market value of the four major cloud companies has decreased by over $1 trillion, with Microsoft down 27%, Amazon down 21%, Meta down 16%, and Alphabet down 11% [3][10]. - Investors are increasingly worried that the rapid increase in AI spending may lead to overcapacity and elongated return cycles, prompting a reevaluation of these companies' financial health [3][10]. Group 2: Debt and Capital Expenditure Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that capital expenditures for large-scale cloud providers will approach $1.4 trillion from 2025 to 2027, significantly up from approximately $485 billion from 2022 to 2024 [8][10]. - Microsoft’s capital expenditure is expected to rise from $76 billion in 2024 to $376 billion during 2025-2027, while Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are projected to spend $321 billion, $304 billion, and $279 billion respectively [11]. Group 3: Credit Derivatives and Market Dynamics - The demand for credit derivatives is increasing as debt investors express concerns over the rising leverage of tech giants competing for AI capabilities, leading to an expansion in credit default swap (CDS) trading [4][13]. - The CDS contracts for Alphabet and Meta have become significantly more active, with current outstanding contracts valued at approximately $895 million and $687 million respectively [7][13]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Debt Financing - The internal cash flow of tech giants is insufficient to support their AI investment levels, with projections indicating that if capital expenditures reach $700 billion by 2026, it would nearly equal the total operating cash flow of these companies [14][16]. - Major debt issuances have set records, with Oracle issuing $25 billion in bonds and Alphabet increasing its bond issuance from $15 billion to $20 billion, reflecting strong demand [16]. Group 5: Market Divergence and Future Outlook - Despite strong current demand for bonds, there is a divergence in market sentiment, with some hedge funds viewing the demand for protection as a profit opportunity, while others warn of potential mispricing of credit risks [17]. - Goldman Sachs notes that to maintain investor return expectations, these companies would need to achieve over $1 trillion in profits annually, while the consensus estimate for 2026 profits is only $450 billion [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "Becoming Chinese," a cultural trend where non-Chinese individuals in Western countries adopt aspects of Chinese culture, reflecting a shift in consumer sentiment and soft power dynamics [3][5][7]. Group 1: Cultural Adoption - The trend began around mid-2025, with individuals posting videos on platforms like TikTok and Instagram, claiming they are "becoming Chinese" by engaging in activities such as drinking hot water and practicing Tai Chi [3][4]. - This cultural shift has expanded from health practices to lifestyle and fashion, with Chinese brands promoting "Chinese style" to Western consumers [4][5]. Group 2: Social Media Influence - The closure of TikTok in the U.S. led some users to migrate to the Chinese app Xiaohongshu, which saw a significant increase in downloads, indicating a growing interest in Chinese content [6]. - The popularity of YouTube star IShowSpeed's trip to China, which garnered attention from millions, further fueled this cultural curiosity [6]. Group 3: Soft Power Dynamics - The rise of this "Chinese-ness" coincides with the economic decoupling between the U.S. and China, where China is increasingly viewed as a leader in certain sectors, contrasting with the U.S.'s perceived decline [7]. - The article notes the paradox of holding both anti-China and pro-China sentiments in the U.S., suggesting a complex relationship with Chinese culture and identity [7][8].

当前全球市场正处于一个罕见的"高噪音、高流速"时期，其混乱程度令即便是最资深的交易员也感到困惑。高盛对冲基金业务主管 Tony Pasquariello 直言，除了全球金融危机或新冠疫情等重大创伤期外，很难回忆起市场环境如此"极度开放"且难以预测的时刻。 他在最新的报告中发出警告：没人真正知道这一切将如何收场。 市场核心的焦虑源于两种截然相反的AI叙事正在激烈博弈： 一方面，市场认为人工智能带来的颠覆性风险正在延长，这导致了 对"受害者"板块的猛烈抛售；而另一方面，投资者又开始质疑AI资本支出的回报率是否足够理想。 这种内在的张力导致了剧烈的波 动——只要市场感知到边际上的AI风险，抛售便会变得异常猛烈。 目前标普500指数今年以来在7000点关口前止步不前，未能实现突破，指数平静的表面之下暗流涌动。高盛的"AI领跑者与落后者"配 对交易在上周创下了历史上最大的单日涨幅，但这主要是由做空"落后者"所驱动的。这种"先开火再瞄准"的做空情绪，正在软件等核 心板块引发剧烈的叙事波动和风险转移。 市场正陷入"AI颠覆一切"与"AI回报不够"的双重叙事博弈：前者引发对软件等"受害者"的恐慌性抛售（估值腰斩），后者则加剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 holdings report indicates a strategy focused on maintaining core technology positions, reducing index exposure, and enhancing active selection capabilities [1]. Group 1: Overall Holdings Summary - Morgan Stanley's total market value for Q4 is $1.67 trillion, up 1.2% from $1.65 trillion in the previous quarter [3][4]. - The fund added 454 new stocks, increased holdings in 4,007 stocks, reduced holdings in 3,028 stocks, and completely sold out of 415 stocks [3][4]. - The top ten holdings account for 22.15% of the total market value [4]. Group 2: Top Holdings and Changes - The top five holdings include Apple (AAPL) at 3.74%, NVIDIA (NVDA) at 3.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) at 3.5%, Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) at 2.28%, and Amazon (AMZN) at 2.23% [5]. - Apple has risen to the first position with an increase of approximately 1.38 million shares, while NVIDIA remains second with an increase of nearly 780,000 shares [4][6]. - Microsoft dropped from first to third but still saw an increase of about 980,000 shares [4]. Group 3: Sector Allocation and Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has not significantly reduced its allocation to the technology sector but has rebalanced internally, favoring companies with strong profit certainty and stable cash flows [7]. - The firm reduced its holdings in healthcare stocks such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AbbVie (ABBV), and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), as well as consumer staples like Walmart (WMT), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Coca-Cola (KO) [7]. - Energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were also reduced, reflecting a potential decrease in the attractiveness of defensive and high-dividend sectors as interest rate paths become clearer [8]. Group 4: New Purchases and Sales - Morgan Stanley increased positions in JPMorgan (JPM), Uber (UBER), and gold ETFs (GLD) [9]. - New purchases included Medline (MDLN), Total (TTE), Qnity Electronics (Q), Solstice (SOLS), and Dreamlong (MICC) [9]. - The top five purchases were Alphabet Class C (GOOG), Eli Lilly (LLY), Apple, Micron (MU), and Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA) [10]. Group 5: ETF Exposure - The decrease in ETF positions indicates a preference for stock selection to achieve excess returns rather than relying on broad index exposure [11].

Core Insights - Citigroup's investment portfolio remains primarily focused on U.S. stocks and ETFs, with significant positions in NVIDIA, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and Microsoft [3][4]. Holdings Summary - The top five holdings in Citigroup's portfolio as of Q4 2025 are: - NVIDIA (NVDA): 3.04% - SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 2.56% - Microsoft (MSFT): 2.53% - iShares Russell 2000 Put Options (IWM): 2.05% - Tesla Put Options (TSLA): 2.02% [3][4]. New Positions - Citigroup established new positions in several debt and convertible securities, including Evercore (EVRG), Snowflake (SNOW), Nutanix (NTNX), Align Technology (ALGN), Mara Holdings (MARA), and IonQ (IONQ), with individual positions generally ranging from 5 million to 13 million shares [5]. - Notably, Citigroup also initiated a position in TotalEnergies (TTE) with approximately 6.86 million shares valued at about $448 million, representing 0.20% of the portfolio [5]. Liquidations - Citigroup completely liquidated positions in several small-cap and illiquid stocks, primarily in healthcare, consumer discretionary, finance, and industrial sectors, including MHUAF, REVB, KEQU, BYFC, CSWC, RDI, and RAIN, reducing these holdings to zero [6][7]. Increased Holdings - Citigroup significantly increased its holdings in certain ETFs and debt instruments, with the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) seeing the largest increase, growing from 0.18% to 0.78% of the portfolio [8]. - Additional notable increases were observed in debt securities related to Akamai (AKAM), JD.com (JD), CMS Energy (CMS), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Global Payments (GPN), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Lantheus (LNTH), with increases generally between 7 million and 12 million shares [8][9]. Decreased Holdings - Citigroup made substantial reductions in several financial stocks, including a 54.86% decrease in Bank of America (BAC), reducing its holdings from 1.23% to 0.59% of the portfolio [10][11]. - The firm also reduced positions in various options, including a 42.31% decrease in iShares iBoxx High Yield Bond ETF Put Options (HYG) and a significant reduction in industrial sector ETF Put Options (XLI) by over 90% [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett team indicates a significant shift in investment focus from "Wall Street elites" to "Main Street" ordinary citizens, driven by "affordability" politics under the Trump administration, leading to a rise in small-cap value stocks and pressure on tech giants [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing a historic rotation from large-cap growth stocks to small-cap value stocks, marking a significant change in asset allocation [3][5]. - The AI narrative is shifting from "AI awe" to "AI poverty," putting pressure on technology stocks as the costs associated with AI development rise [3][11]. - The correlation between the Japanese yen and the Nikkei index has turned positive for the first time since 2005, indicating a potential long-term bull market, although a rapid appreciation of the yen could trigger global deleveraging [3][17][20]. Group 2: Winners and Losers - "Main Street" assets are benefiting from inflationary pressures, with notable performances from silver (+56%), the KOSPI index (+34%), and Brazilian stocks (+30%) since October [5][8]. - Conversely, "Wall Street" wealth bubble assets are facing sell-offs, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks down by 8% and Bitcoin plummeting by 41% [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the current market paradigm shift is just the beginning of a new era, with emerging markets and small-cap stocks expected to lead the next phase of growth [25][33]. - The potential for a significant policy or earnings event, such as a major tech company cutting capital expenditures, could reverse current market trends [10][14]. - The report emphasizes that the U.S. government is unlikely to allow 30-year Treasury yields to exceed 5%, which would be a critical turning point for small-cap value stocks relative to large-cap growth stocks [29][21].

高盛认为，日本市场定价逻辑发生根本转变：自民党胜选后，市场开始定价日本退出超低实际利率体制，表现为日元走强、收益率曲线趋平。核心驱动力 是投资者预期资产回流。但若日本央行政策不够鹰派，日元走弱等旧有逻辑可能回归，未来几周面临不确定性。 据研报，两周前，高盛分析团队提出了一个框架来理解日本政府债券和日元在当前政策组合下的表现。当时的逻辑是，当政策利率受到约束、通胀上 升、而财政政策又计划扩张时，债券和货币同时走弱是合理的市场反应。 高盛指出， 但选举后市场出现了截然不同的动态。实际利率小幅上升，远期通胀预期略有下降。股市走高，同时伴随着更平坦的名义收益率曲线和更 强劲的日元。 该行认为，这种跨资产类别的联动反应清晰且一致，符合发达市场在实际通胀接近目标水平时的典型相关性模式。 数据显示，2年期3年期远期实际互换利率和通胀互换利率的走势从2025年下半年以来发生了明显分化，实际利率稳步上升，通胀预期则趋于稳定。 日本市场正在经历一场重要的转折，市场定价逻辑出现根本性转变。日本自由民主党在众议院选举中取得压倒性胜利后，日元收益率曲线趋于平坦化， 通胀预期稳定，日元汇率走强——呈现出发达市场面对更高实际利率预期时的典 ...

"AI颠覆"冲击软件、金融和物流等行业，而极端仓位和杠杆进一步放大市场波动。投资者开始调整策略增加对冲，看跌期权偏斜度处于历史高位。但高 盛Chris Hussey表示，AI颠覆论与经济韧性数据形成冲突，市场最终方向仍需时间验证。 AI本该是今年确定性最强的交易主题。但它却转变为一种威胁，不是威胁那些构建AI的科技巨头，而是冲击那些可能被AI取代的轻资产企业。 本周，标普500指数一度走向11月以来最糟糕的表现，直到周五通胀数据温和才有所反弹，而AI颠覆恐慌正在各类市场中层层扩散。 软件公司、财富管理机构、经纪商、税务顾问等白领行业，过去十年积累的利润率扩张在几周内被重新定价，冲击波甚至传导至向这些公司提供贷款的 私募信贷市场。 （本周美股公用事业板块作为规避AI冲击的安全港，表现大幅领先，而金融板块则成为当周表现最差的板块） 华尔街高度确信的押注在六周内全面失灵。年初时现金配置创历史新低、对冲降至最低水平的基金经理们，如今正目睹共识交易的溃败，那些最被看好 的资产正输给最不受待见的标的。 能源、必需消费品和美国国债领涨2026年市场，那些年初对AI的共识押注则纷纷落败。 iShares 20+年期美国国债E ...