该公司在截至2025年12月31日的季度中，调整后每股收益为0.57美元，超过分析师预估的0.51 美元。收入同比跃升31%至36.7亿美元，高于市场一致预期的35.9亿美元。这标志着Shopify连 续第十一个季度实现25%或更高的收入增长（不包括物流业务）。 Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) 股价在盘前交易中飙升超过12%，此前该电子商务平台报告的第四季度盈 利超出分析师预期，同时提供了强劲的第一季度收入指引，并宣布了20亿美元的股份回购计划。 首席财务官Jeff Hoffmeister强调了公司在增长和盈利能力方面的平衡策略："我们以强劲的顶 线增长和严格的现金生成能力结束了第四季度，收入同比增长31%，自由现金流利润率为 19%。" 对于2026年第一季度，Shopify预计收入将同比增长低三十几个百分点，与2025年第四季度相 似，高于分析师根据LSEG编制的数据所预期的25.2%增长。该公司还预计第一季度的自由现金 流利润率将在低至中十几个百分点，略低于2025年同期。 "2025年是Shopify全速前进的一年——推动复合增长，同时为人工智能商务新时代铺设轨 道，"Shopify总裁H ...

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's fourth-quarter performance was mixed, with revenue and profit falling short of Wall Street expectations despite claims of AI integration in game development [2][3][15] Financial Performance - Net revenue for Q4 was 275 billion RMB (approximately 39 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, but below analyst expectations of 287.9 billion RMB [3][6] - The net income from games and related services was 220 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, yet also falling short of the market's forecast of 234.2 billion RMB [3][8] - Non-GAAP net profit was 71 billion RMB, with earnings per ADS at 10.95 RMB, significantly lower than the expected 14.07 RMB [3][5][10] Cost and Profitability Analysis - Total operating expenses surged to 94 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, primarily due to rising marketing costs in online gaming [5][10] - Despite an 8.7% increase in gross profit to 177 billion RMB, the high operating costs eroded net profitability [5][10] Core Gaming Business - The gaming segment accounted for 80% of total revenue, with a net income of 220 billion RMB, but the growth rate was perceived as weak [8] - Established titles like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and new releases contributed to revenue, but overall performance did not meet optimistic market expectations [8][10] Other Business Segments - Youdao emerged as a highlight with net revenue of 16 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, surpassing market expectations [11] - Cloud Music showed stable performance with net revenue of 20 billion RMB, a 4.7% increase, but lacked significant surprises [11] - Innovative and other businesses faced challenges, with net revenue declining by 10.4% to 20 billion RMB, indicating a contraction in non-core services [13] Annual Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, total revenue reached 1,126 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of approximately 6.9%, while Non-GAAP net profit grew by 11.3% to 373 billion RMB [15] - The CEO emphasized the importance of AI and globalization, indicating that AI has been integrated across all stages of game development [15]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised Micron's target price from $350 to $450, indicating an implied upside of approximately 28.6% from the current stock price, driven by a supply shortage in memory chips across all end markets and a shift in pricing power to sellers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current memory chip supply shortage is underestimated by the market, with both DRAM and NAND prices expected to continue rising in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 [4]. - Micron's guidance for Q2 suggests a 37% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, with an implied average selling price (ASP) increase of about 30% [4]. - Competitors like SanDisk have reported a staggering 60% quarter-over-quarter increase in NAND ASP, while teams covering Samsung and Hynix predict DRAM price increases of 48% and 55%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Earnings Forecast - Morgan Stanley projects Micron's earnings per share (EPS) to soar to over $52 in the calendar year 2026, indicating a significant increase in profitability [3][9]. - The consensus expectation for Micron's earnings is considered overly conservative, with predictions suggesting a peak EPS of around $12 in late 2027, which Morgan Stanley believes will be exceeded in the next 18 months [9]. Group 3: Valuation Logic - Morgan Stanley argues that using traditional cyclical valuation frameworks for Micron is misguided, as the current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8 times the projected earnings of $48, which is significantly undervalued [10]. - The firm has adjusted its cross-cycle EPS estimate from $14 to $18, leading to a new target price of $450 based on a 25 times P/E ratio [11]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The structural supply-demand imbalance driven by AI is expected to create an additional $200 billion in annual revenue demand within the next 12 months, surpassing the entire semiconductor market revenue in 2020 [12]. - The slow growth in wafer output is projected to be only 7% year-over-year by the end of 2026, while demand is expected to grow explosively, with companies like Nvidia and AMD significantly increasing their revenue forecasts [12]. Group 5: Addressing Market Concerns - Concerns regarding the impact of Chinese memory chip companies and HBM4 production issues are deemed exaggerated by Morgan Stanley, which maintains that Micron's production timeline for HBM4 remains unchanged [13][14]. - Even if Micron faces unforeseen challenges in ramping up HBM4 production, the existing HBM3e will continue to dominate the market and will not negatively impact profitability [13].

大摩认为，OpenAI与甲骨文云的五年收入复合增速预测（108%与75%）在美股75年历史中从未出现。历史来看，90年代末到00年代初的电信投资潮， 最后留下的是产能过剩和破产案例。AI数据中心属于超支率极高的"大工程"，且巨额融资与股权激励正稀释股东价值。 ChatGPT在2022年底把生成式AI推到大众视野后，投资端的变化更快：企业在AI硬件、数据中心上的投入力度，已经接近美国历史上几次最大的投资 浪潮。市场随之抛出一堆漂亮的收入曲线，但问题也变得尖锐—— 这些预测到底有多大概率能实现，值不值得为此付出资本和时间成本？ 摩根士丹利投资管理旗下Counterpoint Global的Michael J. Mauboussin在10日的报告中直截了当地给出方法论：评估这类前瞻判断，应该"starting with an initial belief and updating that belief as new results appear"，也就是"贝叶斯公式"："新结论 = 初始判断（先验概率） × 新证据带来的调整系 数（似然比）"。 | New and improved belief | !! | R ...

卡夫亨氏(NASDAQ:KHC) 股价周三暴跌7%，此前这家食品巨头宣布将暂停其计划中的公司拆分，并 发布了令人失望的2026年指引，未能达到分析师预期。 销量下滑继续困扰着公司，第四季度北美有机销量下降5.4%。公司称多个品类出现疲软，包括 冷切肉、咖啡、冷冻食品、培根和调味品。 "我的首要任务是让业务恢复盈利增长，这将需要确保所有资源都全力专注于执行我们的运营计 划，"Cahillane表示。"因此，我们认为暂停与拆分相关的工作是明智之举。" 公司2026年展望令投资者失望，预计调整后每股收益为1.98至2.10美元，远低于分析师预期的 2.49美元。卡夫亨氏还预测有机净销售额将下降1.5%至3.5%，调整后营业利润预计下降14% 至18%。 2025财年全年，卡夫亨氏报告净亏损58.5亿美元，而2024年为盈利27.4亿美元，主要是由于 93亿美元的非现金减值损失。2025年调整后每股收益为2.60美元，较上一年的3.06美元下降 15%。 这家亨氏番茄酱和卡夫通心粉芝士生产商报告第四季度调整后每股收益为0.67美元，超过分析师 预期的0.61美元。然而，季度营收为63.5亿美元，略低于分析师预期的63 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) reported a total market value of $810 billion in its Q4 2025 13F filing, reflecting a decrease of approximately 1.22% from the previous quarter's $820 billion [3][4]. Holdings Summary - In Q4 2025, Goldman Sachs added 671 new stocks, increased holdings in 3027 stocks, and sold out of 555 stocks. The top ten holdings accounted for 22.11% of the total market value [3][4]. - The turnover rate for the portfolio was 17.6%, with the top 20 holdings held for an average of 17.35 quarters and the top 10 for 24.4 quarters [4]. Top Holdings - The top five holdings included: 1. Nvidia (NVDA.US) with approximately 166.66 million shares valued at about $31.08 billion, representing 3.83% of the portfolio, a decrease of 0.82% from the previous quarter [5][6]. 2. Apple (AAPL.US) with approximately 90.99 million shares valued at about $26.94 billion, representing 3.32% of the portfolio, an increase of 2.60% [5][6]. 3. Microsoft (MSFT.US) with approximately 51.36 million shares valued at about $24.84 billion, representing 3.06% of the portfolio, a decrease of 5.86% [5][6]. 4. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US) with approximately 32.92 million shares valued at about $22.45 billion, representing 2.77% of the portfolio, a decrease of 9.01% [5][6]. 5. Alphabet - A (GOOGL.US) with approximately 52.19 million shares valued at about $16.34 billion, representing 2.01% of the portfolio, an increase of 1.47% [5][6]. Trading Activity - The top five purchases by percentage change in the portfolio were GOOGL, AAPL, AAPL Call options, DIA, and TSLA Call options [8]. - The top five sales included SPY Put options, QQQ Call options, SPY Call options, MSFT, and IWM Put options [7]. Cryptocurrency Exposure - Goldman Sachs disclosed a significant exposure to cryptocurrencies, holding over $2.36 billion in digital assets, which accounted for 0.33% of its reported investment portfolio [9]. - The bank held approximately 21.2 million shares of various spot Bitcoin ETFs valued at $1.06 billion, a decrease of 39.4% from the previous quarter [11]. - The bank also held approximately 40.7 million shares of spot Ethereum ETFs valued at about $1 billion, a decrease of 27.2% [11]. - Notably, Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in newly launched spot XRP and Solana ETFs, with values of $152.2 million and $108.9 million, respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - Cloudflare reported a strong fourth-quarter performance with revenue of $614.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 33.6%, driven by surging demand for AI services and the signing of the largest annual contract in the company's history valued at $42.5 million [1][4][3]. Financial Performance - The company exceeded analyst expectations with fourth-quarter revenue surpassing the forecast of $591.3 million [4]. - Cloudflare's net loss narrowed from $12.8 million in the previous year to $12.1 million [4]. - The company expects full-year revenue for 2026 to reach between $2.79 billion and $2.8 billion, exceeding market expectations of $2.74 billion [4][8]. AI Demand and Market Position - The rapid integration of AI across industries is driving a surge in cloud service demand, positioning Cloudflare as a direct beneficiary of this trend [6]. - Approximately 80% of leading AI companies utilize Cloudflare's solutions, enhancing its market position [9]. - The shift towards AI and intelligent agents is fundamentally restructuring internet platforms, increasing demand for Cloudflare's services [20][21]. Customer Growth and Contracts - Cloudflare signed a record number of annual contracts in the fourth quarter, with new annual contract value (ACV) increasing nearly 50% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since 2021 [4][12]. - The company has approximately 4298 customers paying over $100,000 annually, a 23% increase year-over-year [11][26]. - The average annual contract value for new contracts reached $42.5 million, highlighting significant customer expansion [4][13]. Operational Efficiency - Cloudflare achieved a gross margin of 74.9%, slightly below the long-term target range of 75% to 77% [11][27]. - The company generated $99.4 million in free cash flow, representing 16% of revenue, an increase from 10% in the previous year [28]. - The net retention rate reached 120%, indicating strong customer loyalty and growth potential [26][40]. Future Guidance - For the first quarter of 2026, Cloudflare expects revenue between $620 million and $621 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29% to 30% [29]. - The full-year revenue guidance for 2026 is projected to grow by 28% to 29% compared to the previous year [30]. - The company anticipates continued strong performance driven by its strategic focus on AI and digital infrastructure [30].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing heightened anxiety regarding the potential disruption caused by artificial intelligence (AI), leading to significant stock sell-offs across various sectors, particularly those perceived to be at risk of being replaced by AI technologies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A recent sell-off was triggered by the launch of a tax strategy tool by Altruist Corp, resulting in stock price declines of over 7% for major firms like Charles Schwab, Raymond James, and LPL Financial, marking some of the largest single-day drops since last April [3]. - The market sentiment has shifted from seeking AI winners to rapidly withdrawing from any companies that exhibit even a slight risk of being replaced by AI [8]. - The introduction of AI products has led to widespread panic, with significant declines in stock prices across software, financial services, asset management, and legal services sectors [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Gabelli Funds manager John Belton noted that companies facing potential disruption are experiencing indiscriminate sell-offs, reflecting a broader market fear [4]. - The software industry is particularly affected, with AI companies like Anthropic launching new tools that have caused stock prices to plummet across multiple sectors [9]. - There is skepticism regarding the market's rapid shift from fearing an AI bubble to fearing its disruptive potential, with some experts suggesting that the actual impact of technological disruption often unfolds more slowly than anticipated [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of AI technology adoption remains uncertain, with historical challenges in the banking sector from cryptocurrencies and electronic services failing to disrupt its dominance [10]. - Experts caution against premature conclusions about AI's impact, emphasizing that the AI revolution is still in its early stages and that the market is eager to make judgments without sufficient evidence [13].

Chinese Cars Are Coming to the US — Like It or Not 作者：利亚姆·丹宁是彭博社专栏作家，主要报道能源领域。 摄影：沈启来/彭博社 在中国汽车企业正逐步征服世界的今天，有一个堡垒格外引人注目：美国。美国以高额关税和对 中国企业自主研发或控制的汽车软件系统的禁令，对中国企业构成严重阻碍。同时，美国也是全 球收入最高的汽车市场之一，利润也最为丰厚——中国汽车巨头们渴望找到进入美国市场的途 径。 最近，种种迹象表明，他们或许真的会这么做。 上个月，在底特律——一个令人意想不到的地方——发表讲话的特朗普总统，这位一向对中国抱 有强烈敌意的总统，竟然表示如果中国汽车制造商想在美国建厂，他"非常乐意"。《金融时报》 最近报道称，福特汽车公司曾与小米集团等公司就电动汽车合作进行谈判，但福特公司否认了这 一说法。然而， 福特 首席执行官吉姆·法利却是小米电动汽车的忠实拥趸，他通常对中国汽车行 业充满敬畏之情——这种敬畏之情中又夹杂着一丝恐惧。据报道，福特公司正在与另一家中国竞 争对手浙江 吉利 控股集团有限公司洽谈，商讨在欧洲共享工厂产能。 与此同时，与特朗普爱恨交加的态度相呼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart has surged by 50% recently, yet short sellers have increased their positions, leading to a highly risky situation with a short squeeze risk score of 100, indicating extreme market tension [1][5][13] Group 1: Stock Performance and Short Selling - Despite a 50% increase in stock price within a month, short sellers have not retreated; instead, they are building a dangerous confrontation [4] - According to S3 Partners, the short interest in Pop Mart has risen sharply from 2% to 16% of the free float, indicating a significant increase in bearish sentiment [5][6] - The current short positions are much larger than institutional long positions, creating an extremely crowded one-sided bet that remains unyielding [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Analyst Insights - The market is experiencing a stark divide regarding Pop Mart's future growth trajectory, with management attempting to bolster stock prices through buybacks while short sellers remain skeptical about overseas market performance [9][10] - Analyst Melinda Hu from Bernstein noted that short sellers are particularly focused on the slowing sales trends in key overseas markets, especially the U.S., which has led to increased short interest [10][11] - Despite management's aggressive buyback of HKD 347 million (approximately USD 45 million), short sellers have not been swayed, as short positions increased from 44 million shares to 60 million shares within a week [11] Group 3: Potential Market Volatility - The ongoing tug-of-war between the company's defensive measures and the offensive strategies of short sellers is escalating, with the risk of significant volatility looming [12][13] - The situation is at a critical juncture, where either a forced buy-in by short sellers due to margin pressure could trigger a price surge, or deteriorating fundamentals could burst the stock price bubble [13]