Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market is experiencing an unprecedented "revival-style surge" in 2025, with the Kospi index rising over 76% year-to-date, making it the best-performing major stock index globally [3][4]. AI Investment Theme - The biggest winners in the AI investment theme are not traditional chip manufacturers but industrial stocks associated with AI, such as Hyosung Heavy Industries and Doosan Enerbility, both of which have seen stock prices rise over 330% this year [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant increase in global data center electricity demand driven by AI, with a forecasted expansion of 175% by 2030, emphasizing the critical role of electricity in AI infrastructure [6][7]. Storage Chip Leaders - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have solidified their positions as the largest weight stocks in the Kospi index, with Samsung's stock rising 125% and SK Hynix's stock increasing by approximately 268% this year [8][10]. - The demand for high-performance storage chips, particularly HBM and enterprise-level NAND, is expected to continue growing, with a "storage supercycle" anticipated to last until at least 2027 [9][10]. Defense and Military Sector - The global military spending surge, driven by geopolitical tensions, has led to significant interest in South Korean defense contractors, with companies like Hanwha Aerospace seeing stock prices rise nearly 200% this year [11][12]. - The international rearmament trend is expected to sustain military stock performance over the next 2-3 years, positioning it as a core driver of stock market growth [11]. K-Beauty Sector - APR Corp., a newcomer in the K-Beauty sector, has seen its market value soar by 369%, outperforming established brands like Amorepacific Corp. and LG H&H [13]. - The success of APR is attributed to its innovative sales approach focused on social channels and user experience, contrasting with traditional retail methods [13]. Gaming Sector Struggles - Despite the overall market rally, South Korean gaming developers like Krafton and Com2uS have faced significant declines, with Krafton's market value shrinking by about 20% and Com2uS down over 30% [14][15]. - Concerns over limited appeal in the Asian market and competition from Chinese rivals have led investors to shift their focus away from these gaming stocks [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The AI hype is currently in the early stages of a bubble, with expectations that the U.S. stock market will significantly underperform non-U.S. stocks and gold assets by 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices are expected to record double-digit gains in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of growth, similar to the trend observed from 2019 to 2021 [3]. - Last year, gold prices surged over 60%, and emerging markets had a strong performance, with the FTSE 100 index outperforming major global markets [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly favoring non-U.S. stocks and bonds over U.S. equities and dollar cash, indicating a shift in investment preferences [3][4]. - Concerns about a potential AI bubble have led to market volatility and increased risk aversion among investors [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are likely to favor lowering both nominal and real interest rates, which could support asset prices but also exacerbate the bubble [4]. - Analysts suggest that as concerns about the AI bubble grow, investors will actively seek undervalued investment opportunities in the financial markets [4]. Group 4: Bridgewater Performance - Bridgewater's flagship fund, Pure Alpha II, achieved a record return of 34%, marking a significant recovery from previous years of low returns [4]. - The Bridgewater China Macro Fund and All Weather Strategy Fund also reported returns of 34% and 20%, respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the U.S. government's decision to support Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as a more manageable leader compared to Nicolás Maduro, amid escalating tensions and military actions in Venezuela [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Government's Strategy - U.S. officials have identified Delcy Rodríguez as a suitable candidate to replace Maduro, primarily due to her management of Venezuela's crucial oil industry, which has impressed Trump administration officials [7][8]. - The U.S. military conducted a pre-dawn raid in Caracas, capturing Maduro and his wife, which reflects the administration's commitment to military threats against the Maduro regime [5][21]. - Trump has expressed intentions to "control" Venezuela and reclaim U.S. oil interests, marking a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Venezuela [11][12]. Group 2: Delcy Rodríguez's Profile - Rodríguez, who has a background in economic problem-solving, has been credited with stabilizing Venezuela's economy and gradually increasing oil production despite severe U.S. sanctions [16][18]. - She has built alliances with Venezuela's economic elite and foreign investors, positioning herself as a moderate technocrat in contrast to Maduro's more aggressive security officials [18][19]. - Despite her technical approach, Rodríguez has not condemned the oppressive tactics used to maintain Maduro's regime, indicating potential challenges in her governance [18][19]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The U.S. relationship with Rodríguez's interim government will depend on her adherence to American interests, with the possibility of further military action if she fails to comply [11][15]. - The decision to support Rodríguez over María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, as Machado has been a vocal critic of Maduro and has sought U.S. support for her political ambitions [12][22][23]. - Machado's recent statements indicate her readiness to lead Venezuela, but Trump has expressed skepticism about her ability to garner sufficient support within the country [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S. involvement in Venezuela's oil industry, highlighting both short-term uncertainties and long-term implications for global oil prices due to potential recovery in Venezuelan oil production [1][3][5]. Short-term Supply Risks - The short-term influence of Venezuela on oil prices is ambiguous, depending on the evolution of U.S. sanctions. If the new government gains full sanction exemptions, production could increase by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026, potentially lowering Brent crude prices to an average of $54 per barrel [5]. - Conversely, if the current government attempts to maintain control, leading to increased chaos or production interruptions, output could decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, raising Brent crude prices to $58 per barrel [5]. - Current production levels are estimated to be around 800,000 barrels per day, down from approximately 930,000 barrels per day last November due to U.S. actions affecting oil tanker operations [5]. Long-term Recovery Pressure on Oil Prices - Venezuela holds about one-fifth of the world's proven oil reserves and previously peaked at around 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s. If production can rebound to 2 million barrels per day by 2030, it could exert downward pressure on oil prices by approximately $4 per barrel [6]. - The potential increase in Venezuelan production, combined with unexpected output growth from Russia and the U.S., heightens the long-term risk of declining oil prices [6]. - The gradual recovery of heavy crude oil production in Venezuela, which is rich in diesel components, may offset some structural benefits to diesel margins [6]. Cautious Outlook on Recovery Speed - Despite ambitious rebuilding plans proposed by President Trump, the company remains cautious about the speed of recovery due to severely degraded infrastructure in Venezuela. Significant investment and time are required to enhance heavy oil recovery rates and improve oil upgrading facilities [7]. - Improvements in operational efficiency, stable electricity supply, and enhanced oil transportation infrastructure are essential for any substantial recovery [7]. - A meaningful recovery will necessitate strong incentives to attract large-scale upstream investments, indicating that production increases will likely be slow and localized [7].

Trump's Ouster of Maduro Shows America's New World Order Is Here 在打击委内瑞拉之后，美国总统表示他将把外交政策方法应用到其他地方，并猜测古巴和格陵兰岛是他想要"帮助"的地方。 作者：考特尼·萨勃拉曼尼安、凯特·沙利文、菲奥娜·麦克唐纳、苏迪·兰詹·森和菲利普·海曼斯 美国突袭抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动，向美国的盟友和对手发出警告：唐纳德·特朗普总统拥有他自己的新世界秩序。 在令人震惊的深夜行动之后，马杜罗和他的妻子从加拉加斯附近的一个戒备森严的军事基地被迅速转移到纽约的一所监狱。特朗普此举表明，美 国为了除掉一个被视为对美国利益和安全构成威胁的领导人，愿意走多远。 1月3日，被罢黜的委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗抵达曼哈顿西区直升机场。摄影：亚当·格雷/彭博社 特朗普在宣布马杜罗被捕的新闻发布会上说："未来将取决于保护商业、领土和对国家安全至关重要的资源的能力。这些是决定全球力量的铁 律，我们将继续保持这种格局。" 这一做法震惊世界，招致广泛批评。此前，特朗普在其第二个任期内对索马里、尼日利亚、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗以及国际水域发动了军 ...

The Folly of Trump's Oil Imperialism 特朗普总统已明确表示，他希望攫取委内瑞拉庞大的石油储备；但历史表明，这绝非易事。 作者：约翰·卡西迪（John Cassidy） 如今，得益于页岩油革命（即水力压裂技术），美国已成为全球最大的石油生产国，产量甚至超过沙特阿拉伯，并成为石油 净出口国。但人工智能基础设施的大规模建设正迅速推高电力需求。尽管特朗普政府排斥可再生能源，却在其最近发布的 《国家安全战略》中明确提出要实现所谓"能源主导地位"。在此背景下，委内瑞拉自然引起特朗普的关注——该国目前拥有 全球最大的已探明石油储量，超过3000亿桶。委内瑞拉大部分石油位于横贯北部、东西走向的奥里诺科重油带。这些原油 多为稠油，开采和提炼难度较大，但只要有足够的技术和资本投入，仍可实现商业化开发。此外，美国许多炼油厂——尤其 是墨西哥湾沿岸和西海岸的设施——原本就是为处理重质原油而设计的。 尽管美国具备相应的炼油能力，但要在委内瑞拉大幅提升石油产量仍是一项艰巨任务。如同萨达姆统治下的伊拉克石油业一 样，委内瑞拉石油产业长期遭受制裁和投资不足之苦，大量技术人才已移居海外。去年，该国日均产量仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela, where President Maduro was captured, and the subsequent warning issued by President Trump to the acting president, Rodriguez, emphasizing the potential consequences of opposing U.S. actions [1][3]. Group 1: Military Operation Details - The U.S. military operation, which took place on January 3, involved over 150 aircraft, including bombers, fighters, reconnaissance, and rotary-wing aircraft, launched from 20 bases [4]. - The operation aimed to dismantle Venezuela's air defense systems, resulting in explosions and widespread power outages in Caracas [4]. - The special forces, known as Delta Force, successfully apprehended Maduro and his wife after they attempted to escape to a fortified safe room [4]. Group 2: Intelligence and Planning - The operation, codenamed "Absolute Resolve," was based on months of intelligence gathering, tracking Maduro's movements, and understanding his habits [5]. - The planning for the operation began in mid-December, with earlier preparations dating back several months [5]. - A CIA team had been deployed to Venezuela to monitor Maduro, indicating a long-term strategy for U.S. involvement in the region [5]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's warning to Rodriguez highlighted the U.S. stance on Venezuela, suggesting that further military interventions could occur in other countries [3]. - Rodriguez's refusal to acknowledge the U.S. military action and her declaration of Maduro as the "only president" reflects the ongoing political tensions in Venezuela [3]. - The situation raises concerns about geopolitical stability and the potential for continued U.S. unilateral military actions [3].

Inside 'Operation Absolute Resolve,' the U.S. Effort to Capture Maduro 8 月，一支由中央情报局特工组成的秘密小组潜入委内瑞拉，计划收集有关该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜 罗的信息。特朗普政府曾将马杜罗称为毒品恐怖分子。 中央情报局小组在加拉加斯四处活动，在委内瑞拉境内潜伏了数月之久，始终未被察觉。他们收集 到的关于委内瑞拉领导人日常行踪的情报，结合马杜罗身边的线人以及一支秘密盘旋在空中的隐形 无人机群，使中情局得以绘制出他日常生活的详细路线图。 这是一次极其危险的任务。由于美国大使馆关闭，中央情报局特工无法以外交掩护开展行动。但任 务非常成功。参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在新闻发布会上表示，由于该小组收集的情报，美国 掌握了马杜罗的行踪、饮食习惯，甚至包括他饲养的宠物。 该信息对于随后的军事行动至关重要。周六凌晨，陆军精锐三角洲特种部队突击队员发动了一次突 袭，这是自 2011 年海军海豹突击队第六分队在巴基斯坦的一处安全屋击毙奥萨马·本·拉登以来， 美国同类军事行动中风险最大的一次。 最终，行动战术精准、执行迅速，成功将马杜罗先生从委内瑞拉撤 ...

How the US's audacious operation to capture Nicolás Maduro unfolded 委内瑞拉北部加拉加斯及周边地区的军事、交通和通信设施遭到多次袭击。 © FT 合成图。图片：路透社、法新社 周五晚上 11 点前不久，唐纳德·特朗普下令美国军方在深夜发动行动，从委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯· 马杜罗位于加拉加斯的住所将其抓捕。 "祝你好运，一路顺风，"特朗普在下达命令时说道。 几个小时后，马杜罗就被美军逮捕，当时他正试图前往总统府内的一间钢制安全屋。特朗普和他的 高级顾问们在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的总统海湖庄园俱乐部观看了整个行动的直播。 "他当时想去一个安全的地方，但那并不安全，因为门会被炸开，"特朗普周六在新闻发布会上说， 国务卿马可·卢比奥、国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯和其他高级官员陪同他出席了发布会。 委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗及其妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯被直升机送往美国海军"硫磺岛"号军舰。特朗普在 社交媒体上发布的一张照片显示，马杜罗在军舰上，双眼被蒙，双手被绑在身前。 从左至右：皮特·赫格塞斯、中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫、卢比奥和特朗普在海湖庄园 © 唐纳 德·特朗普的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context and implications of the recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, highlighting it as a continuation of a long-standing pattern of American imperialism in Latin America, marking a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration [1][2][5]. Historical Context - The U.S. has a history of intervening in Latin America, often through military means, to assert its dominance, with the most recent action being the direct military attack on Venezuela, which is unprecedented in South America [1][2][5]. - The article draws parallels between the current situation and past interventions, notably the 1989 invasion of Panama to capture Manuel Noriega, emphasizing the consistency of U.S. actions in the region [2][5]. Policy Shift - The Trump administration's new national security strategy explicitly calls for an expansion of U.S. military presence in Latin America, reflecting a return to the Monroe Doctrine's principles, which advocate for U.S. influence in the region [5][6]. - Scholars note that the recent military action signifies a major change in U.S. diplomatic and defense policy, with implications for future interventions [5][6]. Examples of Past Interventions - The article lists several historical interventions by the U.S. in Latin America, including: - The 1847 invasion of Mexico, resulting in the loss of 55% of Mexican territory [9]. - The U.S. control over Cuba following the Spanish-American War and subsequent occupations [12]. - The 1915 invasion of Haiti, where the U.S. controlled key governmental functions until 1934 [15]. - The 1989 invasion of Panama, which resulted in significant civilian casualties and political upheaval [20]. Consequences of Interventions - Historical interventions have rarely led to lasting peace or stability, often resulting in power struggles and long-term governance issues in the affected countries [21][22]. - The article suggests that the pattern of U.S. intervention tends to create more complex political landscapes rather than resolving conflicts [21][22].