对于即将发布的10月季度（F4Q25）财报，摩根大通预计博通的营收和每股收益将双双超出市场共识。该行指出，谷歌TPU v6（Ironwood）芯片的持续量产以及对Tomahawk 5交换芯片的强劲需求，将推动博通当季AI收入达到66亿美元以上，高于 市场预期的62亿美元。 此外，摩根大通预计博通将给出一份强劲的1月季度指引，营收指引或超过190亿美元，显著高于市场普遍预期的185亿美 元。分析师认为，随着AI基础设施支出的持续增长，博通在定制芯片和以太网交换机领域的领导地位将继续转化为超预期的 财务表现。 明年AI收入剑指500亿美元 摩根大通表示，受谷歌TPU持续放量和Meta新订单驱动，博通2026财年AI收入有望突破500亿美元。短期来看，强劲的AI网 络和定制ASIC需求将推动博通10月季度营收和明年1月季度指引超出市场共识。此外，VMware协同效应加速释放，共同支撑 了博通的乐观前景。 据摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur团队7日发布的报告，博通2026财年的AI收入预计将突破500亿美元大关。这一惊人的增长预测 主要基于谷歌TPU项目的持续放量、Meta等客户的新订单，以及下一代网络芯片的推出。 ...

距离2025年结束仅剩16个交易日，对冲基金连续第七周净买入全球股票，CTA策略基金已从净卖方转为买方，高盛模型显示本周买入90亿美元全球股 票，整体敞口升至1100亿美元。根据高盛Prime Brokerage数据，对冲基金总账面杠杆率上升1.5%至286.6%；净杠杆率增加0.4个百分点至81.2%， 达到一年来99分位数水平。除亚洲新兴市场外，所有主要地区均被净买入，北美地区领涨。 距离2025年结束仅剩16个交易日，标普500指数距离历史收盘纪录仅差30个基点，多重市场力量正在重塑投资格局。本周三美联储议息会议成为焦 点，市场共识已从"不太可能降息"转向"100%概率降息"，再到预期"鹰派降息"。 根据高盛Prime Brokerage数据，对冲基金连续第七周净买入全球股票，其中做多买盘超过做空卖出的比例为1.3比1。CTA策略基金已从净卖方转为买 方，高盛模型显示本周买入90亿美元全球股票，整体敞口升至1100亿美元。企业回购活动异常活跃，交易量较2024年同期日均水平高出80%。 板块轮动显著，资金从防御性板块流出转向周期性股票。公用事业跌4.83%，房地产投资信托基金下跌2.58%，而周期性股票 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the traditional DRAM market is experiencing a significant shift due to a supply squeeze, leading to enhanced pricing power and profitability for traditional DRAM, which is expected to surpass HBM margins starting in Q2 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in industry capacity towards HBM has resulted in a tightening supply of traditional DRAM, while demand remains robust, creating a mismatch that drives up pricing power [7]. - UBS forecasts that traditional DRAM gross margins will reach 67% in Q2 2026, surpassing HBM's 62% for the first time, with margins expected to further increase to 71% in Q3 and 75% in Q4 [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Projections - For Q1 FY2026, traditional DRAM revenue is projected to be $8.22 billion, with a mere 1% increase in shipment volume but a significant 16% rise in average selling price [5]. - UBS's revenue and EPS forecasts for Micron in Q1 FY2026 are significantly higher than management's guidance, driven primarily by improved pricing [12]. Group 3: HBM Business Outlook - Although HBM remains a core growth story for Micron, UBS anticipates a slowdown in HBM revenue growth due to capacity constraints, with Q1 FY2026 HBM revenue expected to grow approximately 35% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - For the full year, UBS estimates HBM revenue will reach $13.05 billion in FY2026 and increase to $21.24 billion in FY2027, with HBM's share of total revenue rising from 17% in FY2025 to 26% in FY2027 [11]. Group 4: Long-term Market Trends - UBS emphasizes that the current semiconductor cycle may last longer than market expectations due to HBM's significant consumption of wafer capacity, effectively creating a "crowding out" effect on the traditional storage market [11][12]. - The report indicates that the structural supply shortage provides a durable competitive advantage for major players like Micron [11].

特斯拉方面称，利润下滑主要是由销售、一般行政费用、人工智能等研发项目推动的运营费用增 加，股票薪酬（SBC）等费用增加，以及一次性全自动驾驶（FSD）收入确认同比下降等原因导 致。 12月8日，特斯拉大跌3.39%，最终收于439.58美元，创下一周以来最大单日跌幅。此次股价波动或受 摩根士丹利的评级调整影响——该行将特斯拉从"增持"下调至"中性"。这也是摩根士丹利自2023年6月 以来对特斯拉的首次评级下调。 摩根士丹利新任特斯拉研究主管安德鲁·珀科科（Andrew Percoco）在履新首份研报中指出，特斯 拉当前的估值已经过高，市场对该公司未来增长的预期，特别是对其非汽车业务（如人工智能、机 器人）的乐观情绪，很可能已经充分反映在股价中。数据显示，特斯拉未来12个月预期市盈率约 210倍，在标普500成分股中高居第二，远超帕兰提尔科技的186倍，仅低于华纳兄弟探索公司的 220倍。 评级调整背后，是特斯拉利润增长明显承压。根据其2025年三季度财报，公司营收为281亿美元， 同比增长12%，创下同期历史新高。然而，净利润为13.73亿美元，同比下降了37%，运营利润率 仅5.8%，创近五年来最低，去年同 ...

瑞银预测，"十年一遇"的内存供应短缺和价格上涨周期将到来。明年四季度，内存成本预计将占高端手机物料清单（BOM）的14%，而中低端手机甚至 可能飙升至34%，显著挤压厂商利润空间。成本压力或迫使中低端市场的厂商采取减配或提价策略，可能需要提价17%才能完全对冲成本上涨。 一场"十年一遇"的内存涨价潮，预计将显著推高智能手机的制造成本。 瑞银12月8日发布的最新全球智能手机调查报告显示，受AI需求挤压，内存行业正进入一个罕见的供应短缺周期。而内存价格的急剧上涨将不成比例地 冲击手机制造商， 迫使它们在牺牲利润、提升售价或降低配置之间做出艰难抉择。 这一现状将对2026年的智能手机行业构成严峻挑战，尤其是对利润本就微薄的中低端市场。相比之下，拥有规模和高端产品组合的头部品牌处境更有 利，它们更强的议价能力和更高的利润率，为其提供了缓冲垫。 内存成本飙升：2026年手机厂商最大"逆风" 瑞银的行业调查显示，在强劲的AI需求持续挤压供应的背景下，内存行业正进入一个"十年一遇"的严重供应短缺年份。报告预计，DDR和NAND的合同 价格上涨势头至少会持续到2026年第三或第四季度。 这对智能手机原始设备制造商（OEM）构 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, but Powell may struggle to present a "hawkish cut," leading the market to potentially bet more aggressively on further cuts in January [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market expects a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with economic forecasts suggesting an upward revision for growth in 2025-2026, while unemployment rate predictions may also rise [3]. - The median dot plot may indicate two rate cuts next year, with the potential for a more dovish stance from the new Fed chair, Hassett, raising concerns about long-term interest rates [3][6]. Group 2: Liquidity Management and RMPs - Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will announce a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) plan, starting in January with monthly purchases of $45 billion in Treasury securities, exceeding market expectations [4][11]. - This liquidity injection is expected to support arbitrage trading and maintain a low volatility environment, benefiting the front-end market [4][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The anticipated decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% is likely to occur, driven by the "buy the rumor" strategy surrounding Hassett's nomination, which may also lower 30-year mortgage rates below 6% [7][9]. - Bank of America maintains an overweight recommendation on agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and CMBS, expecting the MOVE index to decline further, leading to a tightening of spreads [9]. Group 4: Credit and Securitized Asset Allocation - In the credit market, if the new Fed chair adopts a dovish stance, investment-grade corporate bond spreads may initially narrow due to duration chasing, while the yield curve between 10-year and 30-year bonds may flatten [13]. - CLOs are highlighted as resilient assets with good carry yield and price stability, while high-yield bonds face challenges due to volatility driven by AI and shifting Fed expectations [13].

高盛认为，全球减肥药市场正转向"以价换量"新模式，核心驱动力是礼来和诺和诺德等与美政府达成的GLP-1药物降价协议，这将解锁巨大 的"医保"和现金支付需求。同时，DTC（现金支付）渠道、新零售和远程医疗正加速市场"消费化"，进一步降低用药门槛。因此，其将2030年 市场规模预测上调至千亿美元。 据追风交易台消息，高盛12月8日发布的报告显示，礼来和诺和诺德近期与特朗普政府达成的定价协议是这一转变的主要催化剂。这些协议将从 2026年开始大幅降低Zepbound和Wegovy等关键GLP-1药物的价格，其中最引人注目的进展是为庞大的美国联邦医疗保险（Medicare）计划覆 盖这些药物打开了大门。 与此同时，直接面向消费者（DTC）的销售渠道、零售商合作以及远程医疗平台的兴起，正共同推动减肥药市场的"消费化"浪潮，显著降低了 患者的用药门槛并刺激了需求增长。 受降价预期推动及消费化的趋势影响，高盛将其对2030年全球抗肥胖药物（AOM）市场的规模预测上调至约1020亿美元。 "以价换量"：定价协议解锁三大渠道 根据高盛的报告，礼来和诺和诺德与白宫达成的GLP-1药物定价协议是重塑市场的核心。该协议旨在通过降低价 ...

12月8日，Kymera Therapeutics公布全球首创STAT6 PROTAC新药KT-621治疗中至重度特应性皮炎的1b期临床最新数据。受良好数据影响， Kymera Therapeutics股价周一大涨42%，市值达到68亿美元。 挑战药王 ： Kymera Therapeutics 的口服 STAT6 降解剂 KT-621 在特应性皮炎 1b 期研究中展现出与 Dupixent 相当甚至更优的疗效。 数据炸裂 ：治疗 4 周后， EASI 评分平均下降 62%-63% ，约 75% 的患者达到 EASI-50 ，优于 Dupixent 历史数据。 机制验证 ：血液中 STAT6 蛋白降解率达 98% ，皮肤中达 94% ，远超公司预期。 KT-621此次披露为1b期临床数据，同时正在进行治疗特应性皮炎的2b期临床，预计2027年中披露数据，2026年一季度计划启动治疗哮喘的 2b期临床。 BROADEN临床设计如下，探索100mg、200mg两个剂量组，分别入组10例、12例AD患者。 | | Design | | --- | --- | | | · Single arm, open label ...

Core Viewpoint - The decision by Donald Trump to allow Nvidia to export H200 AI chips to China raises concerns among U.S. security officials and lawmakers regarding the access to advanced AI technology by China [3][4][5]. Group 1: Export Decision and Implications - Trump announced that the U.S. will permit Nvidia to deliver H200 products to China and other qualified customers, contingent on ensuring national security [3][4]. - The same export policy will apply to competitors like AMD and Intel, which could lead to significant revenue growth for Nvidia if China allows its companies to purchase these chips [4][5]. - Nvidia's stock price increased by 1.7% following the announcement, indicating positive market sentiment regarding the potential for revenue recovery [5]. Group 2: Technology and Market Dynamics - The H200 chip is significantly more powerful than the H20 chip, which was specifically designed for export to China, but it is now considered outdated compared to the latest Blackwell chip [6]. - Nvidia previously agreed to pay the U.S. government 15% of its revenue from H20 chip sales to restore exports, although this agreement is not finalized [6]. - The decision contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's comprehensive export controls on chip-related technologies [7][8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Experts suggest that allowing the sale of H200 chips could provide a substantial boost to China's AI industry, potentially narrowing the technological gap with the U.S. [6][7]. - Huawei has acknowledged that it cannot produce chips superior to the H200 for at least two years, highlighting the competitive advantage that Nvidia could maintain in the Chinese market [7]. - Trump's comments reflect a shift from the previous administration's approach, which aimed to restrict China's access to critical technologies [8][9].

迈克尔·塞勒的金融工程启发了数十位模仿者，但如今却接近瓦解。 迈克尔·塞勒 © Ronda Churchill/彭博社 Strategy's stock slide leaves bitcoin's biggest booster with dwindling options 在发布了一张人工智能生成的自己逃离沉船的照片两周后，迈克尔·塞勒上周一提出了一个曾经 不可想象的想法：他的公司 Strategy 可能很快会出售其持有的 65 万枚比特币中的一部分。 在最近的一篇论文中写道："这就像一个飞轮，只有当投资者愿意支付高于比特币实际价值的价 格时才会运转。"当溢价消失时，"这个飞轮就会反转"。 社交媒体达人赛勒上个月发布了这张图片 © Michael Saylor on X 赛勒成功地将一家沉寂的企业软件公司转型为一家依靠比特币驱动的盈利巨头，这一成功案例引 发了一大批模仿者，他们将上市公司变成了加密货币囤积者。如今，加密货币抛售潮正在暴露它 们的财务弱点。 尽管股票交易价格溢价很高，但Strategy 公司仍出售了数百亿美元的可转换债券、普通股和其 他与股票挂钩的工具，为其比特币购买狂潮提供资金。 自 20 ...