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水泥、光伏玻璃等行业反内卷加速
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-03 14:15
Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The cement industry is actively promoting anti-involution measures to stabilize growth and ensure high-quality development, with the China Cement Association urging member companies to align their actual production capacities with registered capacities [2] - In the first half of 2025, the average market price of P.O 42.5 bulk ordinary cement in China was 332 RMB/ton, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 14 RMB/ton [3] - Major domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers have collectively decided to reduce production by 30% to address market supply-demand imbalances, which is expected to help recover prices and improve profitability [4] - Other building materials, such as waterproofing products, have seen price increases ranging from 1% to 13% as companies adjust to market conditions [5] Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to ensure that actual production capacities match registered capacities, aiming for compliance and stability in production [2] - Cement prices have shown a slight recovery, with significant price increases announced by companies in various regions [3] Photovoltaic Glass - Leading manufacturers in the photovoltaic glass sector are implementing a significant production cut of 30% to rectify supply-demand discrepancies, which is anticipated to support price recovery [4] Other Building Materials - Companies in the waterproofing sector are raising prices on various products, indicating a trend of price adjustments across the industry [5]
东北固收转债分析:利柏转债定价:首日转股溢价率30-35%
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-03 01:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The target price of Libo Convertible Bond on the first day of listing is expected to be between 132 - 137 yuan, and investors are advised to actively subscribe. The conversion premium rate on the first day of listing is estimated to be in the range of 30% - 35% [2][19]. - The estimated first - day new - bond lottery winning rate is around 0.0027% - 0.0043% [20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Libo Convertible Bond New - Bond Analysis and Investment Suggestions 3.1.1 Convertible Bond Basic Terms Analysis - The issuance method of Libo Convertible Bond is priority placement and online issuance. The bond and issuer ratings are AA, with an issuance scale of 750 million yuan. The initial conversion price is 12.14 yuan. As of July 2, 2025, the conversion parity is 101.32 yuan, and the pure bond value is 99.26 yuan. The game terms are normal, with general issuance scale and liquidity, a decent rating, and good bond floor protection [16]. 3.1.2 New - Bond Initial Listing Price Analysis - The company's main business is the design and manufacturing of industrial modules, with main products including process modules, pipe rack modules, and pipe pre - fabricated parts. The funds raised from this issuance are mainly used for the "Large - scale Industrial Module Manufacturing Project of Nantong Libote Heavy Industry Co., Ltd." [19]. - Based on the valuation reference of Huashe Convertible Bond and Nenghui Convertible Bond, considering the current market environment and parity level, the conversion premium rate of Libo Convertible Bond on the first day of listing is expected to be in the range of 30% - 35%, corresponding to a first - day listing target price of around 132 - 137 yuan [2][19]. 3.1.3 Convertible Bond New - Bond Lottery Winning Rate Analysis - Assuming the old shareholder placement ratio is 54% - 71%, the scale of Libo Convertible Bond available to the market is 216 million - 343 million yuan. Assuming the online effective subscription volume is 7.92 million households, the lottery winning rate is estimated to be around 0.0027% - 0.0043% [20]. 3.2 Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Company's Main Business and Up - stream and Down - stream Industry Situations - The company's main business is the design and manufacturing of industrial modules. The upstream industries are mainly raw material suppliers and subcontractors, which are highly competitive and have little impact on the company. The downstream industries are mainly the chemical industry, and the company is also actively exploring multiple industries such as oil and gas energy and nuclear power projects [21]. 3.2.2 Company's Operating Conditions - From 2022 to Q1 2025, the company's operating income was 1.721 billion yuan, 3.242 billion yuan, 3.493 billion yuan, and 668 million yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 13.21%, 88.39%, 7.72%, and 1.45%. The comprehensive gross profit margin showed a slight fluctuation, and the net profit margin also fluctuated. The company's period expenses increased slightly, and R & D expenses showed an upward trend. Accounts receivable and the accounts receivable turnover rate fluctuated, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased year by year [24][26][37]. 3.2.3 Company's Equity Structure and Main Subsidiaries - As of the end of 2024, the company's equity structure was relatively concentrated. The top two shareholders held a combined 54.31% of the shares, and the top 13 shareholders held a combined 71.67% of the shares. Shen Binqiang and Shen Xuan were the actual controllers, controlling 46.51% of the shares. The company has 7 wholly - owned subsidiaries [40]. 3.2.4 Company's Business Characteristics and Advantages - The company has high - tech barriers in the industrial module business, with an expanding development space. It has an "EPFC" full - industry chain and integrated service capabilities [45]. - The company has advantages in design and manufacturing capabilities, business qualifications, and customer resources [45][46]. 3.2.5 Allocation of This Fund - Raising - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise a total of no more than 750 million yuan, all of which will be used for the "Large - scale Industrial Module Manufacturing Project of Nantong Libote Heavy Industry Co., Ltd." with a total investment of 1.295 billion yuan. The project's internal rate of return (after - tax) is 13.05%, and the after - tax static investment payback period (including the construction period) is 6.06 years [48].
锦泓集团(603518):先发布局,十年一剑
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 12:12
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Jin Hong Group is a leading fashion group in China, with a diverse brand matrix that includes high-end women's wear brands VGRASS, mid-to-high-end retro academy style brand TEENIEWEENIE, and high-end boutique brand Yuanxian, catering to different consumer segments and sharing resources for product development and channel expansion [3][17] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.395 billion yuan in 2024, with TEENIEWEENIE contributing 3.477 billion yuan (80% of total revenue) and VGRASS contributing 780 million yuan (18% of total revenue) [3][23] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 9%/7%/6% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 4.786 billion yuan, 5.127 billion yuan, and 5.433 billion yuan respectively, with net profit growth of 8%/23%/11% [5][96] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jin Hong Group is a top-tier fashion group in China, focusing on high-end women's wear design, production, and sales, with brands targeting various consumer demographics [17][31] Brand Performance - TEENIEWEENIE is the core brand, with a revenue of 3.5 billion yuan in 2024 and a gross margin of 67%. The brand has shown a CAGR of 8% from 2018 to 2024 [4][46] - VGRASS, a high-end women's wear brand, generated 780 million yuan in 2024, down 19% year-on-year [31][23] - Yuanxian, focusing on traditional cloud brocade craftsmanship, achieved a revenue of 81.37 million yuan in 2024, growing 64% year-on-year [5][72] Financial Analysis - The company maintained a gross margin of approximately 70%, with 2024's gross margin at 68.63% [78] - The company has been managing its financial expenses effectively, with a gradual reduction in debt pressure expected to enhance profit margins [83][84] - Inventory turnover days have decreased to 255 days, indicating improved operational efficiency [88] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9%/7%/6% for 2025-2027, with net profit expected to grow by 8%/23%/11% during the same period [92][96] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.52 [6][93] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Jin Hong Group's valuation is below the industry average, with a P/E ratio of 11/9/8 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for valuation appreciation due to its rich IP resources and cultural heritage [93][96]
英科医疗(300677):推出限制性股票激励计划,彰显未来发展信心
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 05:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, granting 13.2431 million shares to 1,090 individuals, which represents approximately 3.94% of the total share capital at the time of the announcement. The grant price is set at 11.30 CNY per share. The performance targets for the company are set for the years 2026-2029, with revenue targets of no less than 11.26 billion, 12.28 billion, 13.28 billion, and 14.28 billion CNY, and net profit targets (excluding share-based payment expenses) of no less than 1.68 billion, 1.88 billion, 2.28 billion, and 2.68 billion CNY respectively [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 9.1%, 8.1%, and 7.5% for the years 2027-2029, with net profit growth rates of 11.9%, 21.3%, and 17.5% respectively, reflecting the company's confidence in future development [2]. - The glove prices have stabilized, and the company has sufficient orders. Since January 2025, the company has successfully shifted glove sales to non-U.S. markets such as Europe, South America, and the Middle East due to U.S. tariffs. The price of nitrile gloves has stabilized, and the company is operating at full capacity, with a significantly higher operating rate than its peers [2]. - The company is accelerating the construction of overseas production capacity to build a global supply system. As of now, the total glove production capacity has reached 87 billion pieces, with 56 billion nitrile gloves and 31 billion PVC gloves. The company has successfully put into operation 8 billion nitrile glove capacity in Anqing, Anhui, in December last year. The first batch of nitrile capacity is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, making the company the first leading enterprise to expand production overseas, which will help overcome tariff barriers and expand into overseas markets such as the U.S. [2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.31 billion, 1.64 billion, and 1.87 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.0, 9.6, and 8.4 times respectively [3]. - The financial forecast indicates that the company's revenue for 2025 is expected to be 9.776 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 2.66% compared to the previous year. The net profit for the same year is projected to be 1.311 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 10.55% [4][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.03 CNY, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.85 [4][12].
基于LMDI因子分解与美日经验的政策启示:从生产国到消费国的跨越:中国内需扩张路径
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 01:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's past economic growth model relying on investment and exports is unstable, and it is necessary to switch to a consumption - driven model for sustainable development. The current actual consumption rate is at least 15% lower than the optimal level, and there is a large room for improvement [3][11][14][114]. - Since 2010, China's household consumption rate has shown an upward trend after hitting the bottom. Currently, the household consumption propensity dominates the trend of the household consumption rate. How to improve the household consumption propensity is the core focus of subsequent policies [3][25][44]. - The United States and Japan have successfully transformed into consumer - driven economies through different paths, providing valuable references for China. However, China faces problems such as premature population aging, relatively lagging urbanization, and relatively insufficient income growth, so the consumption transformation may be more difficult. It is estimated that China needs about 15 years to become a consumer - driven country [4][46][114][115]. - The core constraints on China's household consumption rate are the systematic pressure on the consumption propensity on the demand side and the structural imbalance between supply and demand of service consumption on the supply side. Policies should focus on multiple dimensions such as increasing property income, improving the social security system, optimizing the population structure, building a consumption culture, and increasing the supply of high - quality service consumption [5][75][116]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1.大国发展引擎转变:消费转型是中国持续发展的必经之路 - The structure of investment, exports, and consumption determines the medium - and long - term development quality of the economy. China's export - oriented and investment - driven models have limitations, while the consumption - driven model is more stable, long - lasting, and sustainable [11]. - China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower than the global average, and the capital formation as a percentage of GDP is significantly higher than that of international mainstream economies, showing an obvious investment - driven characteristic [14][15]. - By constructing a dynamic analysis framework of the optimal and actual consumption rates, it is found that China's actual household consumption rate has been lower than the optimal level since 1990. After 2010, the consumption gap began to narrow, and there is still at least a 15% room for improvement [21]. - An increase in interest rates leads to a decrease in the optimal household consumption rate, indicating that the substitution effect dominates the consumption - savings decision in China, and a lower interest rate is conducive to the recovery of consumption [21]. 3.2.消费率演变三阶段:基于LMDI因子分解探寻低消费原因 - Since the reform and opening - up, China's household consumption rate has gone through three stages: an initial up - and - down stage from 1978 - 2000, a continuous decline stage from 2000 - 2010, and a recovery stage since 2010 [25]. - Using the LMDI model to decompose the change in the household consumption rate, it is found that the consumption propensity and primary distribution mainly dominate the long - term trend of China's household consumption rate. After 2005, the consumption propensity became the core variable explaining household consumption [32]. - In different stages, different factors affected the consumption rate. From 1978 - 2000, inflation risks and government policies led to a decline in the consumption rate; from 2000 - 2010, the substitution of external demand for domestic demand and the imbalance in primary distribution led to a continuous decline in the consumption rate; since 2010, the household consumption propensity has dominated the trend of the household consumption rate, and the COVID - 19 pandemic has had an impact on the consumption rate [35][41][44]. 3.3.美日转型启示录 3.3.1.美国经验:人口红利+消费信贷创新 - After World War II, the United States achieved an economic transformation from a production - and - export - driven model to a consumption - oriented society. This transformation required government intervention in multiple aspects [47]. - The release of the population dividend, the improvement of urbanization, and the continuous growth of disposable income provided a foundation for the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. The government also promoted the development of consumption through credit innovation and the improvement of the social security system [47][51]. 3.3.2.日本经验:国民收入倍增计划 - In the 1970s, Japan transformed from a production - oriented economy to a consumption - oriented economy under the pressure of external environment deterioration. Although Japan faced problems such as premature population aging, the "National Income Doubling Plan" increased residents' purchasing power, and the improvement of the social security system and financial services promoted consumption [53][57][66]. 3.3.3.中国启示:城镇化、收入增收仍有空间 - China faces problems such as premature population aging, relatively lagging urbanization, and relatively insufficient income growth compared with the United States and Japan during their transformation periods. There is still potential for urbanization and income growth in China [71]. 3.4.政策工具箱:多维消费驱动战略 3.4.1.提升财产性收入:从利息依赖到权益赋能 - China's labor compensation ratio is comparable to that of major global economies, but the property income structure shows an extreme differentiation of "interest dependence and equity absence", which suppresses the consumption propensity. Policies should focus on capital market reform to increase the proportion of equity dividends and activate property income [76][78]. 3.4.2.社保制度迭代:从普惠性覆盖到质量提升 - China's social security system has problems such as incomplete coverage and significant differences in pension levels between urban and rural areas, which restrict the release of consumption momentum. Future policies should focus on improving the inclusiveness and quality of the social security system [80][89]. 3.4.3.人口结构优化:释放短中长期消费潜力 - China's low fertility rate and increasing dependency ratio put pressure on consumption. Fertility support policies can directly increase consumption in the short term and release the consumption potential of the youth group in the long term. The silver economy also has great potential [95][100]. 3.4.4.观念革新:消费文化构建 - The formation of a consumption - oriented society requires the construction of a consumption culture. Currently, Chinese residents' consumption concepts are still relatively conservative, and policies should balance the traditional thrift concept and the demand for consumption - driven transformation [103][107]. 3.4.5.增加优质服务消费供给 - China's service consumption has problems such as a low proportion of service industry added value in GDP and a low proportion of service - related expenditures in total consumption. Policies should focus on expanding the opening - up of the service industry, building a cross - border service trade promotion system, and increasing the supply of high - quality service consumption [109][112]. 3.5.总结与展望 - China needs to switch to a consumption - driven growth model. The consumption transformation may be more difficult than that of the United States and Japan, and it is estimated to take about 15 years. - Future policies should focus on improving the household consumption propensity from four dimensions: income, population structure, social security, and cultural construction, and increase the supply of high - quality service consumption on the supply side [114][115][116].
华盛昌(002980):智能测量测试行业引领者,积极布局“AI+”产品
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 09:46
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the smart measurement and testing industry, actively integrating "AI+" products across various sectors, including power, healthcare, and smart devices [1][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 807 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.55%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, up 29.21% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades, which have positively impacted profitability, with gross and net profit margins improving to 46.25% and 17.14%, respectively [2]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 1.12 billion yuan in 2025, 1.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.81 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 188 million yuan, 245 million yuan, and 307 million yuan [4][5]. - The projected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 38.88% and 36.17% for 2025, respectively [4]. - The company’s earnings per share are expected to be 1.00 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.62 yuan by 2027 [4]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively developing AI-integrated products, such as the AI-7760 power quality analyzer and AI medical devices, which are expected to drive future growth [3]. - The establishment of a joint venture for AI glasses aims to enhance the company's strategic positioning in the smart device market [3].
银龙股份(603969):全球预应力材料领军企业,业绩或进入放量期
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 08:16
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in prestressed materials, with significant revenue growth anticipated in its core businesses of prestressed materials and concrete products for rail transit. In 2024, the revenue from prestressed materials is projected to be 2.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%, with a net profit of 174 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 55.93% [2][3]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its market share in high-value products, driven by the robust development of national infrastructure projects, which is expected to enhance profitability further [2]. - The company is exploring new applications for fine wire products, particularly in the robotics tendon business, leveraging its existing technology in prestressed materials. This project is currently in the early research and technical preparation stage [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 3.054 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.886 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.46% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 237 million yuan in 2024 to 525 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 19.09% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.28 yuan in 2024 to 0.61 yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure investments, with the China National Railway Group planning to complete 590 billion yuan in infrastructure investments and 2,600 kilometers of new lines in 2025 [2]. - The company aims to maintain stable supply for existing high-speed rail and metro projects while actively exploring new market opportunities in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and various metro lines in Guangzhou and Shenzhen [2].
谷子经济千亿级市场,供需两端发力打开远期成长空间
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 08:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the "Guzi" economy, driven by multiple factors on both demand and supply sides, with a projected market size increase from 537 billion yuan in 2017 to 1689 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 17.79% [3][21] - The demand for "Guzi" products is expected to benefit from the rise of emotional consumption and changing consumer attitudes, particularly among younger demographics [12][56] Summary by Sections 1. Emotional Consumption Rise and Market Outlook - The "Guzi" economy is positioned within the broader context of the expanding ACGN subculture, which includes animation, comics, games, and related merchandise [12] - The market for the broader "pan-second dimension" and related products is projected to grow from 221.2 billion yuan in 2017 to 597.7 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 15.26% [12][19] 2. Demand Side Analysis - The user base for "pan-second dimension" products in China is substantial, with an expected growth to 503 million users by 2024, indicating a strong willingness to purchase "Guzi" products [2][42] - Approximately 88.71% of anime/manga viewers express a willingness to buy "Guzi," with 81.78% having made purchases [45][50] - The average single purchase amount for "Guzi" products is 102 yuan, with consumers increasing their purchase frequency from 2.3 to 2.9 times per month [62][64] - The market penetration in lower-tier cities is still low, presenting opportunities for expansion due to the price advantages of "Guzi" products [68][72] 3. Supply Side Analysis - The "Guzi" economy's supply chain encompasses IP production, authorization, and product sales, with a notable rise in domestic IPs stimulating consumer interest [73][76] - The domestic IP authorization market is growing, with retail sales of authorized products expected to reach 1550.9 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11% [86][90] - The report notes that the sales of domestic IPs have surpassed those of Japanese IPs on platforms like Xianyu, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [80][81]
波司登(03998):2024、2025财年报告点评:暖冬依旧逆势增长,运营稳健
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 07:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 11.6% year-on-year, reaching 25.9 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [1][2]. - The brand's down jacket segment saw a revenue increase of 11% to 21.67 billion yuan, with the main brand, Bosideng, growing by 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency through the expansion of its store network and improving single-store performance [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 13.6% [3][4]. - The company’s inventory increased by 23.6% to 3.95 billion yuan, with a cash position of 4.18 billion yuan, indicating healthy cash flow [4]. - The company plans to achieve revenue growth of approximately 10% annually from FY2026 to FY2028, with projected revenues of 28.51 billion yuan, 31.46 billion yuan, and 34.77 billion yuan respectively [4]. Business Segments - The OEM processing management business grew by 26.4% to 3.37 billion yuan, while women's clothing and diversified apparel segments saw declines of 20.6% and growth of 2.8% respectively [2]. - The self-operated and wholesale channels for brand down jackets reported revenue increases of 5.2% and 24.3%, reaching 15.09 billion yuan and 5.72 billion yuan respectively [3]. Market Position - The company has expanded its retail store count by 253 to a total of 3,470 stores, with a net increase of 210 Bosideng brand stores [3]. - Online sales for brand down jackets grew by 9.4% to 7.48 billion yuan, accounting for 34.5% of total sales [3].
纳科诺尔(832522):干法取代湿法、受益固态发展
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 04:42
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on dry process technology, which is expected to replace traditional wet processes in battery manufacturing, leading to significant cost savings and efficiency improvements [2][4]. - The company has established a joint venture, Qingyan Nako, to enhance its capabilities in dry electrode equipment, which is becoming a core component in future battery manufacturing [2][34]. - The performance of the company's roller press machines is leading the market, with strong partnerships with major new energy companies enhancing its competitive position [2][4]. Financial Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.58 billion, 2.37 billion, and 3.56 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 244 million, 362 million, and 544 million RMB [2][4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 50% for 2025 and 2026, and 50.46% for 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company specializes in high-precision lithium battery roller press equipment, with a focus on dry process technology for electrode production [16][25]. - It has received various accolades, including being recognized as a "National High-tech Enterprise" and a "Specialized and Innovative Small Giant" [16]. Market Trends - The dry process technology is gaining traction due to its compatibility with solid-state batteries, which are expected to see significant growth in the coming years [2][69]. - The overall lithium battery market is projected to grow, with a notable increase in demand for roller press equipment as manufacturers shift towards dry processing methods [2][66].