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波司登(03998):2024、2025财年报告点评:暖冬依旧逆势增长,运营稳健
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 07:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 11.6% year-on-year, reaching 25.9 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [1][2]. - The brand's down jacket segment saw a revenue increase of 11% to 21.67 billion yuan, with the main brand, Bosideng, growing by 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency through the expansion of its store network and improving single-store performance [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 13.6% [3][4]. - The company’s inventory increased by 23.6% to 3.95 billion yuan, with a cash position of 4.18 billion yuan, indicating healthy cash flow [4]. - The company plans to achieve revenue growth of approximately 10% annually from FY2026 to FY2028, with projected revenues of 28.51 billion yuan, 31.46 billion yuan, and 34.77 billion yuan respectively [4]. Business Segments - The OEM processing management business grew by 26.4% to 3.37 billion yuan, while women's clothing and diversified apparel segments saw declines of 20.6% and growth of 2.8% respectively [2]. - The self-operated and wholesale channels for brand down jackets reported revenue increases of 5.2% and 24.3%, reaching 15.09 billion yuan and 5.72 billion yuan respectively [3]. Market Position - The company has expanded its retail store count by 253 to a total of 3,470 stores, with a net increase of 210 Bosideng brand stores [3]. - Online sales for brand down jackets grew by 9.4% to 7.48 billion yuan, accounting for 34.5% of total sales [3].
纳科诺尔(832522):干法取代湿法、受益固态发展
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 04:42
[Table_Info1] 纳科诺尔(832522) 电力设备 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-07-01 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司动态报告 干法取代湿法、受益固态发展 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 干法工艺较湿法工艺,辊压价值量明显提升。相较传统湿法路径,干法 工艺简化了涂布、干燥及溶剂回收等环节,改以干混粉末方式,通过粘 结剂原纤化等方式形成具备一定强度的薄膜,再经辊压覆盖于集流体表 面。传统湿法路径中,涂布、干燥与溶剂回收环节合计约占电极制造成 本的 48%~50%,占电池制造总成本近 20%。采用干法不仅可以省去相关 费用,还可节省约 1500~3000 万人民币初始投资成本支出,缩减 13%~16%的厂房面积,使整体电池制造成本下降约 10%~15%。与自身传 统湿法辊压机设备相比,干法辊压机在辊压工序,工艺适配,精度控制 等领域都能够带来较大的价值量增加。传统辊压机以 2 辊为主,配备单 轧主机,公司推出的最新干法辊压机使用多级多道辊压方法,配备 10-20 辊的辊系以满足干法工艺对厚度一致性与致密性的更高要求,显著提升 了设备结构复杂度与价值 ...
出口角度看产业升级
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 04:15
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 /宏观专题 出口角度看产业升级 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 总需求偏弱在 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议中就有重点强调,即"我 国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战,主要是国内需求不足"。那么总需求 偏弱是否会干扰产业升级呢? 为了考察需求偏弱对产业升级的影响,我们需要对产业升级进行定量描 述。按出口结构变化,可以将制造业分为符合升级方向的高增长组、不 符合升级方向的低增长组。 上述数据我们可以勾勒出故事的全貌。 综合来看,需求不足很有可能会对产业升级造成干扰,这就可以理解为 何 2024 年底经济工作会议会如此重视需求不足的问题,并且始终把提 升居民收入放在非常重要的位置。一旦需求不足的问题得以扭转,我国 经济发展的主旋律其实还是产业升级、产业高端化、居民收入提升、居 民消费升级的螺旋式前进的过程。那么一旦总需求不足的问题得以扭 转,资本市场也必将迎来科技创新、消费升级所引领的长牛。 风险提示:地缘政治风险上升、全球经济增速不及预期 [Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-07-01 相关数据 [Ta ...
东北固收转债分析:2025年7月十大转债
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 03:44
[Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 2025 年 7 月十大转债 ---东北固收转债分析 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 7 月十大转债如下: 中证转债指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《【东北固收】原油地缘溢价消退,提振消费扩 内需继续发力——政策及基本面周度观察 (20250628)》 --20250629 《甬矽转债定价:首日转股溢价率 23%~28%》 --20250626 《华辰转债定价:首日转股溢价率 22%~27%》 --20250623 《社零超预期改善,油价涨幅收窄——政策及 基本面周度观察(20250621)》 --20250622 《锡振转债定价:首日转股溢价率 29%~33%》 --20250622 首席分析师:刘哲铭 执业证书编号:S0550524040002 18801785199 liuzm1@nesc.cn 证券分析师:薛进 执业证书编号:S0550522120002 13916677156 xuejin@nesc.cn 风险提示:转债回调风险。 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 [Table ...
伯25转债定价:首日转股溢价率22%~27%
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 03:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target price of Bo 25 Convertible Bonds on the first day of listing is expected to be between 123 - 128 yuan, and investors are advised to actively subscribe [3][19]. - The expected first - day new - bond lottery winning rate is around 0.0168% - 0.0235% [4][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bo 25 Convertible Bonds New - Bond Analysis and Investment Recommendations 3.1.1 Convertible Bond Basic Terms Analysis - The issuance method of Bo 25 Convertible Bonds is priority placement and online issuance, with a bond and issuer rating of AA. The issuance scale is 2.802 billion yuan, the initial conversion price is 52.42 yuan, the conversion parity on June 30, 2025, is 100.52 yuan, the pure - bond value is 98.88 yuan. The game terms (downward revision, redemption, and put - back terms) are normal. The bond has high issuance scale, good liquidity, acceptable rating, and good bond - floor protection. It is easy for institutions to include it in their portfolios, and there is no objection to primary participation [2][15]. 3.1.2 New - Bond Initial Listing Price Analysis - The company is an auto parts supplier engaged in the R & D, production, and sales of automotive mechanical braking products, intelligent electronic control products, and mechanical steering products. The first - day target price of the convertible bonds is 123 - 128 yuan. Considering the current market environment and parity level, the conversion premium rate on the first day of listing is expected to be in the range of [22%, 27%] [3][18][19]. 3.1.3 Convertible Bond New - Bond Lottery Winning Rate Analysis - Assuming the old - shareholder placement ratio is 33% - 52%, the scale of Bo 25 Convertible Bonds available to the market is 1.345 - 1.877 billion yuan. Assuming 8 million online valid subscription accounts, the lottery winning rate is expected to be around 0.0168% - 0.0235% [4][20]. 3.2 Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Company's Main Business and Industry Upstream - Downstream Situation - The company's main business is the R & D, production, and sales of automotive mechanical braking products, intelligent electronic control products, and mechanical steering products. The main upstream industries are steel and aluminum alloy industries, and the main downstream industries are vehicle manufacturers and their supporting markets. The upstream - downstream relationship between the vehicle and the braking and steering systems is mutually promoting and interdependent [21][22]. 3.2.2 Company's Operating Conditions - From 2022 to Q1 2025, the company's operating income showed an overall upward trend, with year - on - year growth rates of 58.61%, 34.93%, 32.95%, and 41.83% respectively. The comprehensive gross profit margin showed a slight downward trend, and the net profit margin also fluctuated. The company's R & D expenses gradually increased, while the accounts receivable turnover rate showed a downward trend. The net profit attributable to the parent company showed an upward trend, and the profitability showed a fluctuating trend [25][30][35]. 3.2.3 Company's Equity Structure and Major Subsidiaries - As of December 31, 2024, the company's equity structure was relatively concentrated. The top two shareholders held 32.8% of the shares, and the top ten shareholders held 52.16% of the shares. The company has 18 subsidiaries and 3 affiliated companies [43]. 3.2.4 Company's Business Characteristics and Advantages - The company has an independent forward - development ability in the fields of automotive mechanical braking products, intelligent electronic control products, and mechanical steering products. Its competitive advantages include a comprehensive product matrix, strong product competitiveness, continuous product - technology innovation, cost - control advantages through reasonable division of labor and management, and brand advantages through strict product - quality control [46][50][51]. 3.2.5 Allocation of This Fund - Raising - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise a total of no more than 2.802 billion yuan. The funds will be invested in projects such as the annual production of 600,000 sets of EMB R & D and industrialization, 1 million sets of wire - controlled chassis braking system industrialization, 1 million sets of EPB construction, high - strength aluminum alloy casting, and the annual production of 7.2 million lightweight parts and 2 million brake calipers in Mexico [13][52].
情绪消费催生嗅觉经济,东方香氛重塑市场新格局
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 00:45
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 情绪消费催生嗅觉经济,东方香氛重塑市场新格局 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 香水市场:中国香水 2023 年规模达 261 亿元,预计 2023-2028 年 CAGR 为 12.82%。伴随消费者对香水的认知度和接受度提升,中国香水渗透率 和市场规模正稳步抬升,2023 年中国内地+香港+澳门香水规模已达 261 亿元,2018-2023 年 CAGR 为 12.32%,预计 2023-2028 年 CAGR 为 12.82%。中国香水市场占全球市场份额同样快速提高,2023 年占 3.68%, 预计 2028 年份额将达 5.67%,中国香水市场展现出强劲增长势能。 市场趋势:中国香水渗透率低是经济发展的阶段性现象,随情绪消费兴 起有望快速崛起。中国 2023 年人均香水额仅 16 元,远低于美国(423 元)、英国(406 元)、韩国(170 元)和日本(47 元),中国香水渗透率 低并非文化和宗教等因素导致的必然结果,而是经济发展时期不同造成 的阶段性现象。虽然欧美受宗教和文化等影响,香水起步较早且接受度 高,但其发展史也印证了 ...
AI25H2(2):AI医疗大势所趋
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 13:44
[Table_Info1] 计算机 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-06-29 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 AI 25H2(2):AI 医疗大势所趋 国内老龄化趋势加深,AI 医疗成为提升就医效率必要工具:国家统计局 数据显示,2024 年国内 60 岁及以上人口 3.1 亿人,占全国人口的 22.0%, 其中 65 岁及以上人口 2.2 亿人,占全国人口的 15.6%;我们认为未来随 着 B 端 AI 医疗渗透率提升,AI 工具有望从 B 走向 C;AI 医疗场景: 1)影像诊断的全模态智能化。AI 在医学影像领域的应用已从单一病种 检测发展为多模态综合分析。2)精准医疗与基因组学的深度整合。AI 与 基因组学的技术融合已从基础研究迈向临床应用,正在加速精准医疗的 实现。通过分析海量基因数据,AI 能够预测个体疾病风险,并制定治疗 方案。3)手术机器人的自主化跃升。手术机器人正从辅助工具向半自主 系统进化。骨科领域第四代 Mako 系统通过多模态影像,根据患者的特 定解剖结构提供高精度配准,确保手术入路和区域的精准定位。4)远程 医疗与健康管理的普及。AI 结合可穿戴设备(如血糖仪 ...
军工周报:阅兵消息官宣,主战装备+新型作战力量将参-20250629
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 13:44
Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The global geopolitical situation remains tense, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and rising risks in the Middle East, leading to an intensified arms race and increased focus on military construction [4][38] - The defense industry is expected to see a recovery in demand as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its final year, with long-term growth certainty supported by clear development goals for 2035 and 2050 [4] - The upcoming military parade on September 3 will showcase both traditional main battle equipment and new combat forces, highlighting advancements in military capabilities [3][40] Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index rose by 6.90% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [12] - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 79.92 times, with sub-sectors showing varied valuations: aerospace equipment at 143.52 times, aviation equipment at 69.14 times, ground weapons at 174.36 times, naval equipment at 50.76 times, and military electronics at 102.36 times [20][21] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Downstream manufacturers: Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and AVIC Helicopter [4] 2. Military new technologies: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Guangqi Technology, and Zhongjian Technology [4] 3. Underwater equipment: Hailanxin, Yaxing Anchor Chain, and Zhongke Haixun [4] 4. Missile industry chain: Feilihua, Guoke Military Industry, and Zhongbing Hongjian [4] 5. Military titanium materials: Western Superconducting [4] 6. Electronic components: Hongyuan Electronics and Aerospace Electronics [4] 7. Military trade direction: Zhongwu Drone [4] Industry Dynamics - Recent policies related to deep-sea technology indicate significant development potential, particularly for specialized equipment like UUVs, supported by top-level planning [3] - The military trade market is expanding, with recent announcements of procurement from Pakistan for Chinese fighter jets, indicating a growing opportunity in military exports [39]
厦门银行(601187):深度报告:深耕对公条线,深化两岸金融
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-06-27 09:44
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Bank, with initial coverage [4][11]. Core Views - Xiamen Bank, established in 1996, has a diversified shareholder structure and has achieved full coverage of branches in Fujian Province by 2015, with total assets of 374.2 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [1][19]. - The bank benefits from a favorable economic environment in Fujian Province, which ranks 8th in GDP and 4th in per capita GDP among 31 provinces, with growth rates exceeding the national average [2][34]. - The bank's loan and deposit scales are steadily growing, with a loan total of 210.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [3][26]. - Investment income has maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 18.14% in Q1 2025 [3][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiamen Bank has a unique shareholder structure with significant participation from Taiwanese capital, and its management team has extensive experience in the banking industry [19][20]. - The bank's total assets have shown a compound annual growth rate of 9.36% from 2020 to 2024 [19]. Economic Environment - Fujian Province's GDP reached 5.78 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.3%, surpassing the national average [34]. - The province's per capita disposable income in Q1 2025 grew by 5.6%, ranking 7th among provinces [34]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the bank's total loans amounted to 210.58 billion yuan, with corporate loans increasing by 5.23% to 142.24 billion yuan [3][26]. - The bank's deposit scale reached 221.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.35% [3][26]. - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.86%, indicating good asset quality [3][31]. Investment Income - The bank achieved investment income of 331 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 18.14% year-on-year increase [3][31]. - The proportion of fee and commission income also increased, contributing to the bank's overall revenue growth [3][31]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit for Xiamen Bank from 2025 to 2027 is 2.50 billion yuan, 2.51 billion yuan, and 2.62 billion yuan, respectively [4].
乐普医疗(300003):创新+消费共振,心血管平台加速多元化转型
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-06-27 09:21
[Table_Invest]买入 创新+消费共振,心血管平台加速多元化转型 [Table_Summary] 聚乳酸面部填充剂国内第 7 证,公司正式进入医美领域。聚左旋乳酸微 粒真皮组织填充剂是再生类医美产品,刺激胶原蛋白生成,具有优异的 生物相容性、可降解性和安全性。根据弗若斯特沙利文预测,我国基于 聚左旋乳酸的皮肤填充剂在 2024 年的出厂端市场规模预计约 11 亿元、 2030 年有望增长至约 38 亿元,年复合增长率接近 23%。截至公告日, 我国 NMPA 已批准包括乐普医疗在内的 7 张聚乳酸面部填充剂注册证; 公司另有多种玻尿酸产品已申报注册申请,快速丰富消费医疗产品矩阵。 持股乐普生物,PD-1 商业化&ADC 管线研发快速推进。乐普医疗持有 同一实控人旗下乐普生物 13.17%股份,乐普生物作为国内 ADC 领域的 领军企业,旗下首个商业化产品 PD-1 普特利单抗销售快速放量贡献现 金流,针对消化道癌的 ADC 产品 MRG007 已实现海外 BD 合作、交易 金额最高达 12 亿美元,针对二线及以上晚期鼻咽癌的 EGFR ADC 产品 MRG003 的 NDA 申请已获得 CDE 受理 ...