1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - Despite a decline in revenue, the company's profitability remains resilient, with a net profit of 5.94 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, only a slight decrease of 1.27% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin has reached a record high of 30.34% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from product structure optimization and pricing advantages due to rising gold prices [1]. - The company is undergoing a significant transformation in its product offerings, with a notable shift towards trendy silver jewelry and other auxiliary products, which have seen revenue growth [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 45.97 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 43.92% [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 4.03 billion yuan, down 68.83% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales collections [1]. - The company expects revenues of 103 billion yuan, 112 billion yuan, and 120 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.5 billion yuan, 13.9 billion yuan, and 15.6 billion yuan [4]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from gold products decreased by 50.94% to 34.15 billion yuan, while revenue from trendy silver jewelry increased by 11.11% to 3.2 billion yuan, reflecting changing consumer preferences [2]. - The company is actively adjusting its store structure, with a total of 4,718 stores, including 4,311 franchise stores, which saw a net closure of 344 stores [3]. - E-commerce revenue was 11.68 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 1.9%, but the online subsidiary reported a net profit increase of 24.61% [3].

[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 海外市场保持高速增长，国际竞争优势突显 ---时代天使 25H1 中报点评 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年中期业绩报告，公司于报告期内实现营收 161.4 百万美 元(+33.1%)，实现净利润 14.2 百万美元（+583.6%），业绩表现超预期。 点评： 业务端：国内案例数增长高于预期，海外市场份额占比进一步提升。25H1 公司实现案例数 22.58 万例（+47.7%），国内实现 10.86 万例（+14.0%）， 海外实现 11.72 万例（+103.5%）。1）国内市场实现营收 89.7 百万美元 （+0.6%），保持稳健增长。案例数实现小两位数增长，国内市场地位稳 固；2）海外市场实现营收 71.7 百万美元（+123.1%），占比 44.4% （+17.9pct），案例数占比 51.9%（+14.2pct），海外市场贡献进一步提升。 财务端：毛利润率保持稳定，成本结构实现明显优化，盈利能力改善明 显。25H1 实现毛利润率 62.4%（-0.1pct），毛利润率基本保持稳定。1 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 商业航天按下加速键，测运控环节如何量价齐升 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 行业爆发式增长驱动测运控需求爆发。航天测运控行业正站在低轨卫星 互联网规模化部署的历史转折点，随着全球低轨星座计划从数千颗向数 万颗量级跃进，卫星全生命周期管理需求呈指数级增长——单星从入轨 初期的轨道捕获、状态标定，到运营阶段的轨道维持、碰撞规避，再到 退役前的受控再入，每环节均需高频次测控支持。而在政策层面，国家 将商业航天连续两年写入政府工作报告，地方政府密集出台支持政策， 推动测运控基础设施向"天地一体、全球覆盖"升级。预计 2025 年后随 着可回收火箭的进展整个卫星互联网行业将迎来加速发展，其中测运控 作为卫星产业核心环节之一，将直接受益需求增长且具备较强确定性。 技术迭代与资源禀赋构筑行业护城河。航天测运控环节具备技术壁垒与 资源禀赋的双重稀缺性。技术层面，企业需突破数万千米超远距离数据 传输、多星并发测控、AI 智能调度等关键技术——例如天链测控通过融 合毫米波通信与边缘计算，将单星日下行测控弧段提升至 22 圈，数据 时延控制在秒级；星图测控自主 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 商用车市场回暖 出口表现强劲 归母净利润短期承压 [事Ta件bl：e_公Su司m于ma2ry0]25 年 8 月 27 日公布半年度财报。2025H1 公司实现总营 业收入 180.92 亿元，同比增长 0.96%；利润总额达到 8.18 亿元，同比增 长 47.62%；实现归母净利润 7.33 亿元，同比减少 18.17%；扣非归母净 利润 5.4 亿元，同比下降 33.44%。 归母净利润同比下滑主要由于去年少数股东损益影响。2024H1，公司收 到与福特合资子公司就烈马车型支付的一次性产品研发费用 2.85 亿元， 这是导致 2025H1 归母净利润同比下降的核心原因。 核心商用车市场回暖，龙头地位稳固。受益于国内物流行业复苏，公司 核心商用车板块表现优异。2025H1，江铃轻客销量 47,111 辆，同比增长 23.09%，市占率稳居行业第一；皮卡产品市占份额位居行业第二，上半 年销售 33,194 辆；轻卡销量 35,333 辆，同比增长 21.91%，市场地位稳 固。同时公司也在加强商用车在新能源领域的布局，江铃于 2025H1 推 出了 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 996 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 50 million yuan, up 32.97% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.00% [1][2]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment is a significant contributor to the company's performance, with revenue from this segment increasing by 59.03% compared to the first half of 2024, accounting for 37.46% of total revenue [2][3]. - The company is expanding its IP collaboration efforts, partnering with a major IP operator to enhance its cultural and creative product offerings, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company reported a revenue of 996 million yuan, a 19.81% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a 32.97% growth. The net profit margin improved to 5.00%, up 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For 25Q2, the revenue was 542 million yuan, a 6.89% year-on-year increase, but the net profit decreased by 5.54% to 29 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 5.41% [1]. Market Analysis - The overseas market generated 979 million yuan in revenue in 25H1, a 20.4% increase, with a gross margin of 35.22%. North America remains the primary revenue source, contributing 868 million yuan, up 21.9% [2]. - The domestic market saw a decline, with revenue of 17 million yuan in 25H1, down 5.3%, primarily due to insufficient IP richness [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2.595 billion yuan, 3.047 billion yuan, and 3.491 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 140 million yuan, 185 million yuan, and 230 million yuan for the same years [3][4]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in profitability, with a projected net profit margin of 6.1% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027 [10].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 胖改新疆首店落地，看好后续调改表现 [Table_Summary] 25H1 业绩符合预期，盈利能力同比改善：1）25H1：总营收 12.71 亿 /+2.29%，归母净利润 0.67 亿，归母净利率 5.27%/+1.96pcts，盈利能力 同比改善。我们认为，这或源于调改落地+低空经济布局，盈利弹性有 望持续释放。2）25Q2：实现营收 5.45 亿元/+1.32%，归母净利润 0.10 亿元，归母净利率 1.87%/+1.23pcts。 主业重回增长，看好后续调改节奏：业绩方面，1）超市业态：联营营 收 1.39 亿/+1.70%，自营营收 1.68 亿/+5.39%；背后原因或在于调改， 新疆首家"胖东来"指导调改店 8 月 16 日开业，胖东来商品结构对标 大于 90%，同时取消强制动线、增设休息区/宠物柜等便民设施，开业 当天引来 7 万人次消费客流，同比增长 127%，销售额高达 244 万元， 同比增长 286%。目前，公司超市第一批调改已经完成，第二批门店调 改正在持续推进； 2）百货业态：联营营收 1.39 亿/-9.41%，自营 ...

[Table_Info1] 中际旭创(300308) 通信 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 高端产品出货比重增长，盈利能力提升显著 ---中际旭创 2025 年半年报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司近日发布 2025 年半年报，2025 年上半年实现营收 147.89 亿 元，YoY+36.95%；归母净利润 39.95 亿元，YoY+69.40%；扣除非经常性 损益后净利润 39.75 亿元，YoY+70.40%。单二季度实现营收 81.15 亿元， YoY+36.25%，QoQ+21.59%；归母净利润 24.12 亿元，YoY+78.80%， QoQ+52.40%；扣除非经常性损益后净利润 24.07 亿元，YoY+79.27%， QoQ+53.47%。整体业绩表现亮眼，盈利能力持续提升。 点评：重点客户算力投入持续，行业维持高景气度。2025 年上半年，重 点客户进一步增加资本开支，加大算力基础设施领域投资。2025 年 Q2 单季度，微软、亚马逊、Meta、谷歌合计资本开支同比提升 69%至 874 亿美元。根据 Factset 一致预期，2025 年四家 ...

产能建设加速，匹配新型号放量需求。公司成功完成 40 亿元的定向增 发，募集资金将用于推动航空武器装备的跨越式发展和规模化交付。截 至 2025H1 末，公司在建工程达 22.92 亿元，较年初增长 31.5%，主要 投向新厂区建设。产能的提前布局是应对未来新型号大批量生产的必要 准备，彰显公司对"十四五"末期及"十五五"期间装备放量的信心。 新一代主力机型拓展应用场景。以歼 35 为代表的新一代战机，不仅满 足空军的换代需求，其舰载版本更是我国海军走向深蓝的关键装备。多 军种的需求将共同驱动新机型进入产能快速爬坡阶段，打开公司内需市 场的天花板。此外，公司积极开拓高端航空装备军贸市场，在 2025 年 上半年参加巴黎航展等国际活动，展示以歼-35A 为代表的先进机型， 进军国际市场。 投资建议：我们预计公司 25-27 年营收为 488.09/575.55/650.12 亿元， 归母净利润为 39.22/47.17/53.79 亿元，对应 EPS 为 1.38/1.66/1.90 元， 对应 PE 为 44.51/37.00/32.45X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：需求下滑，军贸不及预期，业绩与估值判断 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 25Q2 销量同比增长，海外产能持续扩张 [Table_Summary] 公司发布半年度业绩，25H1 实现营业收入 219 亿元（同比+18%），毛利 率 20.5%，归母净利润 23.2 亿元（同比-8.6%）；其中，25Q2 营业收入 112 亿元（同比+19%，环比+5.4%），毛利率 19.7%，归母净利润 11.7 亿元 （同比+4.9%，环比+1.7%）。 我国产销规模最大的轮胎企业，25Q2 同比持续增长。公司主要从事全钢 胎、半钢胎、斜交胎和车胎等轮胎产品的研发、生产和销售，拥有"朝 阳"、"WESTLAKE"等多个国内外知名品牌，远销六大洲的主要国家和 地区，并向比亚迪、丰田、Stellantis 等多家知名整车厂商提供配套产品。 公司名列美国《轮胎商业》杂志《2024 全球年度轮胎报告》评选的全球 轮胎制造企业前十强。根据招股说明书，截止 24 年底，公司半钢胎产能 7256 万条，全钢胎产能 2234 万条，斜交胎 677 万条，其他车胎 12606 万 条。根据公司披露的经营数据公告，25Q2 公司轮胎产品销量同比增长 10 ...