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安踏体育(02020):2025二季度营运情况点评:流水表现符合预期,维持全年指引
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-16 06:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a focus on further developing its outdoor brand portfolio and maintaining a multi-brand, global strategy [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.9% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027, reaching revenues of 785.3 billion, 860.1 billion, and 934.5 billion respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 15.8% in 2025, followed by growth of 11.6% in 2026 and 10.3% in 2027, amounting to 131.3 billion, 146.6 billion, and 161.6 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw significant growth, with retail revenue increasing by 50-55% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its franchise store operations and enhanced its e-commerce structure to improve efficiency [1]. Brand Analysis - FILA's performance was stable, with notable growth in children's and trendy lines after adjustments made in 2024. The brand is expanding into professional sports and outdoor products [2]. - Other brands like Descente and Kolon Sports reported over 40% and 70% revenue growth respectively, indicating strong performance in the women's sports segment [2]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for $290 million is expected to enhance the company's outdoor market presence and support international expansion [2]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a revenue increase from 62.36 billion in 2023 to 78.53 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of 13.13 billion in 2025 [4][3]. - The report outlines a decrease in net profit margin from 34.86% in 2024 to 17.53% in 2025, reflecting anticipated challenges [4]. Market Data - The company's stock closed at HKD 89.80, with a 12-month price range of HKD 65.90 to HKD 106.30, and a market capitalization of HKD 252.09 billion [5].
李宁(02331):2025Q2营运情况点评:流水低单位数增长,库存保持健康水平
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-16 04:11
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 流水低单位数增长,库存保持健康水平 ---李宁 2025Q2 营运情况点评 事件: [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025Q2 营运情况。李宁(不包括李宁 YOUNG)全平台零售流 水同比增长低单位数。 点评: 终端表现延续 Q1 态势。2025Q2 李宁(不包括李宁 YOUNG)全平台零 售流水同比增长低单位数,基本延续 Q1 增长态势。分渠道来看,线下 渠道流水同比下降低单位数,其中直营渠道流水同比下降中单位数,批 发渠道流水同比增长低单位数;电商渠道流水同比增长中单位数,保持 优于线下渠道的零售增速表现。 跑步健身品类表现持续领先。根据公司公开交流内容,Q2 跑步及健身品 类表现继续领先大盘,预计流水同增高单位数,整体上半年跑步品类表 现符合预期;篮球品类仍有承压;运动生活品类 Q2 流水同比基本持平; 在户外、羽毛球等较小规模品类上保持较快增长。 渠道门店保持稳健策略。截至 6 月 30 日,李宁销售点数量(不包括李宁 YOUNG)较年初净减少 18 个至 6099 个,较 Q1 末净增加 11 个;李宁 YOUNG 销售点数量较 ...
2025年中央城市工作会议点评:迈入存量新阶段,城市更新筑内涵
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 13:14
Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "better than the trend" for the next six months, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning into a stable and stock-based new phase, with urban development shifting from outward expansion to inward cultivation. The focus is now on enhancing the intrinsic quality of cities rather than merely expanding their boundaries [3][4]. - Urban renewal has become the core strategy for urban development, moving from large-scale demolition and construction to activating existing stock through renovation and utilization. The emphasis is on high-quality urban development and the establishment of a new model for real estate development [4]. - The supply of new residential land is expected to continue to decrease while improving quality. In the first half of 2025, residential land planned for release in 300 cities was 210 million square meters (down 19.4% year-on-year), with transactions at 170 million square meters (down 5.5% year-on-year). However, the land transfer revenue increased significantly to 860 billion yuan (up 27.5% year-on-year) [5]. Summary by Sections Urban Development - The central government emphasizes the need for modern, innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and smart cities. The urbanization process is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, indicating a new focus on internal quality enhancement [2][3]. Urban Renewal - The core task of urban renewal has evolved from focusing on shantytown and dilapidated housing renovations to addressing complex property rights in urban villages. This marks a significant shift in urban renewal strategies, with a clear directive to avoid large-scale demolitions [4]. Market Supply and Demand - The report highlights a trend of "reduced quantity and improved quality" in new housing supply, with a growing emphasis on product quality among real estate companies. The competitive edge is increasingly leaning towards developers who can deliver high-quality products [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality product developers, the second-hand housing market, and commercial real estate as key areas of investment in the current stock era [5].
对先进制程未来需求的思考:从智驾到具身智能,世界还需几个台积和中芯?
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 06:44
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 从智驾到具身智能,世界还需几个台积和中芯? ---对先进制程未来需求的思考 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] AI 大模型技术发展如火如荼,ChatGPT 横空出世,DeepSeek 惊鸿一击,不断引爆算 力需求,全球对算力的关注度始终保持在高位,NVIDIA 更是成为全球第一个市值突 破 4 万亿美金的上市公司。先进制程是 AI 算力的基础,因此也成了海外算力和国产 算力供给端的焦点,市场上多次出现关于通过计算先进制程产能分配预测 AI GPU 量 级的文章,海外半导体产业研究机构如 SemiAnalysis 等,多次发表文章探讨台积电 产能如何影响 NVIDIA 旗舰芯片产量以及中芯国际产能分配如何左右国产 AI GPU 放量。但我们认为,AI GPU 的火爆需求,并不是先进制程未来的主要增长方向! 我们认为:智驾和具身智能,对先进制程未来的需求将远超 AI GPU。本文通过对比 智驾 SoC、机器人大脑 SoC、AI GPU,从芯片 Die size、架构、终端数量等方面展开 分析,提出三个观点: 观点一:以晶圆产能为视角,智驾 Di ...
万通智控(300643):TPMS与智能网联业务迎来爆发,战略布局具身智能拓展空间
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 01:42
TPMS 与智能网联业务迎来爆发,战略布局具身智能拓展空间 [事Ta件bl:e_S公u司mm发a布ry]半年度业绩预告,2025 年 1 月 1 日至 6 月 30 日,归属 于上市公司股东的净利润预计为 0.88 亿元至 1.0 亿元,同比增长 45%-65%;扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计为 0.80 亿元至 0.91 亿元, 同比增长 45%-65%。 [Table_Info1] 万通智控(300643) 汽车 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 政策与市场双轮驱动,TPMS 与智能网联业务迎来爆发契机。全球强制 性法规持续赋能主业:中国乘用车 TPMS 强制安装政策带动前装需求; 后装市场因 5-7 年替换周期启动,欧美已进入更换阶段,国内 2019 年安 装车辆亦将迎替换高峰。商用车领域增量显著:联合国法规强制 2024 年 7 月起新产卡车安装 TPMS,美国试行碳积分奖励政策,中国 JT/T 1178.2-2019 标准要求牵引车安装。公司商用车 NLP 产品进入放量周期。 经过 3 年的验证,技术领先和综合比较优势使得该产品获得欧美客户的 高度认可,与北美市场客户深度绑 ...
AI25H2(3):数据为先,RDA推动实数融合
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-12 08:36
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 AI 25H2(3):数据为先,RDA 推动实数融合 事件: [Table_Summary] 国家金融与发展实验室副主任杨涛表示,基于 Web3.0 世界打造的稳定 币已经超越了传统的离岸与在岸范畴,为了更好地实现战略统筹、主动 监管、协同推进,应该考虑采取境内离岸与境外离岸人民币稳定币的联 动发展模式。 点评: ➢ 人民币稳定币呈现"内外结合"趋势 相关标的: 数据资产:上海钢联、道通科技、普联软件、找钢集团、慧辰股份、数 字政通、久远银海; 链上交易:宇信科技、新国都、四方精创、连连数字、众安在线。 (注:以上公司除数字政通外,其余尚未有研报覆盖,且仅为有限列示 相关的公司,不作为投资推荐。) 风险提示:政策进展不及预期;下游需求不及预期。 执业证书编号:S0550525050001 zhaoyy1@nesc.cn [Table_Info1] 计算机 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-07-12 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 上次评级:优于大势 1)境外离岸人民币业务是指在境外市场开展以人民币计价结算的金融业 务,在政策驱动 ...
沃尔核材(002130):2025年半年度业绩预告点评:铜链接核心受益标的,通信线缆快速放量
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-11 02:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its communication cable segment, driven by increased demand from downstream industries such as data communication. This has led to a significant rise in revenue and net profit [2][3]. - The company has a robust order backlog and is actively developing next-generation high-speed communication cables, including a focus on 448G technology [2]. - The lifecycle of high-speed copper cables is expected to extend, supported by the ongoing construction of AI infrastructure overseas, which favors copper cables for short-distance transmission [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.45-5.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30%-40%. The net profit after excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 5.11-5.50 billion yuan, also reflecting a 30%-40% increase [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 2.95-3.37 billion yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18%-35% and a year-on-year growth of 26%-43% [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 82.89 billion yuan, 125.68 billion yuan, and 156.51 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 13.51 billion yuan, 23.92 billion yuan, and 30.86 billion yuan [3]. Operational Insights - The company is enhancing its production efficiency through automation and optimizing its product structure, which is contributing to improved profitability [2]. - The company has secured production capacity ahead of demand, with key equipment already delivered and more on the way, positioning it well for future growth [3]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading international supplier of high-speed communication cables, leveraging its technological and production capacity advantages to maintain a competitive edge [3].
锐科激光(300747):国内领先光纤激光器制造商,关注反无装备等新兴领域放量
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 08:25
请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 [Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司动态报告 国内领先光纤激光器制造商,关注反无装备等新兴领域放量 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 锐科激光是中国领先的光纤激光器制造商,专注于研发、生产和销售高 功率光纤激光器及其核心器件。公司业务覆盖连续光纤激光器、脉冲光 纤激光器、准连续光纤激光器、窄线宽光纤激光器、超快激光器、直接 半导体激光器等产品,并为客户提供定制化解决方案和应用技术支持。 公司产品广泛应用于激光打标、切割、焊接、熔覆、清洗、增材制造、 钣金加工、汽车、新能源、光伏、3C 电子、船舶、航空航天、激光医疗、 雷达传感等行业领域。 公司重视研发投入,激光器产品技术实力领先。2024 年公司研发投入 35478.62 万元,同比提升 4.97%,占公司营业收入的 11.10%。公司不断 向高端制造和精密加工领域拓展,共计推出了 13 款新产品。2024 年先 后研制出 200kW 超高功率光纤激光器、电光转换效率超过 50%的 12kW 光纤激光器、100W 高能量固体绿光激光器、250W 掺铥光纤激光器等一 系列国际和国 ...
劲旅环境(001230):国内环卫智能装备领军企业,积极布局无人环卫车
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 08:22
风险提示:国内外宏观形势变化超出预期,行业竞争加剧,政策转向 风险,应收账款风险,盈利预测与估值模型不及预期 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,455 | 1,539 | 1,675 | 1,840 | 2,040 | | (+/-)% | 15.27% | 5.79% | 8.86% | 9.85% | 10.86% | | 归属母公司净利润 | 129 | 141 | 175 | 205 | 230 | | (+/-)% | 2.43% | 8.76% | 24.06% | 17.19% | 12.22% | | 每股收益(元) | 1.16 | 1.06 | 1.31 | 1.53 | 1.72 | | 市盈率 | 20.22 | 15.64 | 16.31 | 13.92 | 12.40 | | 市净率 | 1.48 | 1.20 | 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.25 | | 净资产收益率(%) ...
中广核矿业(01164):稀缺海外铀资源平台,受益铀价上行
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 02:53
[Table_Invest]增持 [Table_Info1] 中广核矿业(01164.HK) 建筑材料 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-07-10 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 稀缺海外铀资源平台,受益铀价上行 中广核集团海外铀资源平台。公司是中国第一、全球第三大的核电集 团中广核集团下属上市子公司之一,亦是中广核集团旗下海外铀资源 开发的投、融资的唯一平台。中广核矿业是香港主板上市产量最大的 铀业集团,同时也是东亚目前唯一的纯铀业上市公司,主要业务为核 能企业使用的天然铀资源的开发与贸易。公司将抓住全球核电复苏和 天然铀需求持续增长的机遇,获取强成本竞争力的铀资源项目,致力 于成为国际一流的天然铀供应商。2024 年,公司权益资源量 3.4 万 tU, 权益产量 1324tU,全年实现营收 86.2 亿港元,净利润 3.4 亿港元。 已签订 2026~2028 关联交易合同,预期受益铀价上行。公司 6 月 3 日 公告,与中广核铀业签订销售框架协议,期限覆盖 2026 年~2028 年; 据框架协议,中广核铀业每年采购不低于 1200t 天然铀,每磅定价机 制为 ...