Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in January sales, with total wholesale sales down 51.14% year-on-year and 47.14% month-on-month. The sales of its own brand vehicles fell by 58.46% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales decreased by 45.74% year-on-year [1][7] - The company aims to achieve a total sales target of 3.3 million vehicles by 2026, with 1.4 million of those being new energy vehicles. The company is also focusing on expanding its overseas market presence [7] - The company is enhancing its technological capabilities, particularly in smart driving, with the Deep Blue brand achieving significant milestones in autonomous driving technology [7] - Strategic partnerships with companies like Midea Group and CATL are being pursued to enhance technological collaboration and explore new frontiers in the automotive industry [7] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 159.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 233.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.5% [2][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.32 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 6.31 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 10.94 billion yuan by 2027 [2][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.64 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 1.10 yuan by 2027 [2][8]

资产配置月报 202602 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 06 日 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ 大类资产量化观点 风格量化观点 行业配置量化观点 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 叶尔乐 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | | 邮箱： | yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | | 邮箱： | zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 1 月底黄金价格出现大幅下跌，或是短期利空事件触发与市场自身交易 结构脆弱性共振的结果。下跌的诱因或来自凯文沃什被提名美联储主席候选人， 但黄金长期上涨的根本逻辑未发生改变；前期黄金价格持续上涨，黄金交易拥挤 度处于高位，其脆弱的交易结构在利空消息的刺激下导致了这次大幅下跌。 对于黄金的交易拥挤度，我们可以从其价格乖离率和沪金主力平值 IV 来观察。在 黄金长期上涨逻辑不变的情况 ...

资产配置月报 202602 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 06 日 如何衡量黄金的交易拥挤度？ 大类资产量化观点 风格量化观点 行业配置量化观点 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 叶尔乐 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | | 邮箱： | yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | | 邮箱： | zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 1 月底黄金价格出现大幅下跌，或是短期利空事件触发与市场自身交易 结构脆弱性共振的结果。下跌的诱因或来自凯文沃什被提名美联储主席候选人， 但黄金长期上涨的根本逻辑未发生改变；前期黄金价格持续上涨，黄金交易拥挤 度处于高位，其脆弱的交易结构在利空消息的刺激下导致了这次大幅下跌。 对于黄金的交易拥挤度，我们可以从其价格乖离率和沪金主力平值 IV 来观察。在 黄金长期上涨逻辑不变的情况 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in January sales, with total wholesale sales down 51.14% year-on-year and 47.14% month-on-month, while its own brand sales fell 58.46% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to achieve a total sales target of 3.3 million units by 2026, with 1.4 million units from new energy vehicles and 750,000 units from overseas markets [7] - The company is enhancing its technological capabilities, achieving key breakthroughs in autonomous driving and launching new models to accelerate its electric transformation and global expansion [7] - Strategic partnerships with major companies like Midea Group and CATL are being deepened to explore advanced fields such as battery swapping and flying cars [7] - The company has established a global presence in 117 countries, with local production in Thailand and plans to double its capacity while increasing localization rates in Europe [7] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 159.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%, and expected to reach 233.54 billion yuan by 2027 [2][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 6.31 billion yuan in 2025, before recovering to 10.94 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 34.1% [2][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.64 yuan in 2025 and increase to 1.10 yuan by 2027 [2][8]

锅圈（2517.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 业绩兑现优秀，聚力共进迈步 2026 glmszqdatemark 相对走势 -10% 40% 90% 140% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 锅圈 恒生指数 相关研究 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,378 | 11,296 | | 增长率（%） | 6.2 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 20.5 | | 经调整净利润 | 311 | 463 | 589 | 728 | | 增长率（%） | 3.1 | 48.9 | 27.3 | 23.6 | | EPS(基于经调整净利润） | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.27 | | P/E(基于经调整净利润） | 34 | 22 | 18 | 14 | | P/B | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股 ...

资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价,汇率 1HKD=0.89RMB） | 推荐 | 首次评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 4.26 港元 | 锅圈（2517.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 业绩兑现优秀，聚力共进迈步 2026 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,378 | 11,296 | | 增长率（%） | 6.2 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 20.5 | | 经调整净利润 | 311 | 463 | 589 | 728 | | 增长率（%） | 3.1 | 48.9 | 27.3 | 23.6 | | EPS(基于经调整净利润） | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.27 | | P/E(基于经调整净利润） | 34 | 22 | 18 | 14 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the new energy vehicle sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The performance of the new energy vehicle market in January 2026 was relatively flat, with a total retail market size of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4%, but a slight year-on-year increase. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 44.4% [4]. - Five key new energy vehicle companies (excluding Xiaomi and Aion) delivered a total of 130,772 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0%, outperforming the industry average [4]. - The report anticipates a stabilization and recovery in automotive demand post-Chinese New Year, driven by the rollout of local government subsidies and the introduction of new models [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Delivery Performance - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 31.9%. The strong performance is attributed to the competitive pricing of models C10 and B01 [5]. - Ideal Auto reported 27,668 vehicles delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.5%. The company is focusing on enhancing user experience through software updates and expanding its service network [9]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.2%. The ES8 model was the top performer [6]. - Zeekr delivered 23,852 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.3% [10]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.0% [6]. Market Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of intelligent driving technology adoption, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge. The expectation is that advancements in intelligent driving will lower hardware costs and expand market access [12]. - The report suggests that the intelligent driving capabilities will become a key competitive factor for automakers, with a focus on companies that are leading in this area [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong intelligent driving capabilities and those that are well-positioned in the new energy vehicle supply chain. Specific companies highlighted include Geely, Xpeng, and BYD [12].

海外宏观利率攻略系列 美联储利率走廊制度演变回顾 glmszqdatemark | [Table_Author] | | --- | | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄涵静 | | 执业证书： S0590125110075 | | | 邮箱： | huanghanjing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 1． 流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：资金波澜 再起-2026/01/28 2． 指数增强策略系列： 基于科创债 ETF 的增 强策略-2026/01/27 3． 信用债周策略 20260126：怎么看民企发 债热度回升？-2026/01/26 4． 债券策略周报 20260125：当前各债券品 种及期限的定价分析-2026/01/25 5． 海外利率周报 20260125：美债延续高位 小幅波动格局-2026/01/25 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 02 月 04 日 为什么要研究美国的利率走 ...

其二，经济大省将"卯足劲"搞科技。随着中央经济工作会议将我国国际科技创 新中心布局从北京、上海、大湾区，拓围至京津冀、长三角、大湾区三大区域， 2026 年这些地区在政府工作报告中，几乎"清一色"将打造科技创新中心集群置 于全年工作的最领先位置，显示出区域协同创新已成为驱动高质量发展的核心战 略。 当然，"卯足劲"搞科技的同时，还要沉下心来"反内卷"。有趣的是，这些承担 国际科技创新中心建设任务的核心地区，在 2026 年几乎都专门部署了"反内卷" 工作，而许多其他省份则未将其列为重点。可见在创新高地，构建清朗、高效、 可持续的科研与产业生态的重要作用。 其三，地方的"促消费"虽然作为重点工作部署，但并非当务之急。尽管各地均对 国家层面提出的消费品以旧换新、清理消费领域不合理限制、丰富服务消费供给 等政策进一步落实安排，但对比 2025 年地方政府工作报告来看，今年各地对"扩 内需、促消费"相关任务的次序安排，多数保持稳定或有所后移（包括我们此前 报告《提升消费率：中国的四类画像》提到的"乐于消费型"的广东、浙江，其 2026 年工作报告均将内需的工作次序下调）。 在 2026 年开局工作中，地方政府仍将有限 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]