Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook on the consumption building materials sector, particularly waterproof materials with lower profit baselines [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The consumption building materials sector is entering a low baseline peak season in Q3 2024, with expectations for improved monthly high-frequency data and quarterly profit forecasts compared to H1 2024 [2][5]. - The cement and glass sectors are anticipated to experience price rebounds post mid-August, with potential supply changes during the September military parade providing price elasticity opportunities [2][5]. - Specific companies such as Puyang Nair and Reborn Technology are highlighted for their strategic acquisitions and market positioning, which are expected to enhance their profitability and competitive advantages [3][6][7]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability ahead of revenue growth, with a focus on cost reduction and price stabilization [15][16]. - Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Rabbit Baby are noted for their strong cash flow and dividend performance, with market expectations for net profits in 2025 at approximately 20 million and 7.5 million respectively [16][17]. Cement - The cement market is currently experiencing a price decline, with a 0.3% drop noted, but is expected to stabilize as demand shows signs of improvement [19][43]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards limiting overproduction, with policies aimed at stabilizing supply and improving profitability [19][21]. Glass - The float glass market is under pressure with declining prices and increased inventory, but there is potential for recovery as supply-side adjustments take place [27][29]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are projected to face a 30-40% decline in net profit for 2024, but maintain a healthy balance sheet and competitive positioning [29][35]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - The fiberglass market is experiencing a split in production and sales, with larger manufacturers benefiting from high-end product demand while smaller firms struggle [36][39]. - The carbon fiber sector is seeing a recovery in wind power demand, which is expected to improve profitability in the coming quarters [40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][11]. Core Views - The company continues to experience high revenue growth driven by its diverse business segments, including two-wheeled vehicles, lawnmowers, and scooters, with expectations for further growth in all-terrain vehicles and Ebikes [1][11]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 20.15 billion, 26.22 billion, and 32.29 billion CNY, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) of 28.01, 36.44, and 44.88 CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 85.9%, 30.1%, and 23.2% [11][12]. - The company has reported a significant increase in sales and profitability, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching 66.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%, and net profit of 7.86 billion CNY, up 70.8% year-on-year [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,222 million CNY in 2023 to 34,055 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5% [3][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 598 million CNY in 2023 to 3,229 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.2% [3][12]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 7.05 in 2023 to 1.31 in 2027, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness [3][12]. Business Performance - The company reported a sales volume of 138.87 million units for electric two-wheeled vehicles in Q2 2025, a 77% increase year-on-year, contributing 39.6 billion CNY in revenue [11][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) for electric two-wheeled vehicles was 2,852 CNY, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [11][12]. - The company has over 8,700 dedicated stores for electric two-wheeled vehicles in China as of June 30, 2025 [11][12]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a semi-annual dividend plan, distributing 4.23 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 300 million CNY, which represents 24.19% of its net profit [11][12].

Market Pricing Status - The trading heat in the market has slightly declined, with turnover rates decreasing and net capital inflows reducing [8][24][28] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased to 18.1 billion, down from 18.5 billion the previous week [8] - The proportion of stocks rising in the A-share market dropped to 31.9%, with a median weekly return of -1.48% [8][9] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - ETF outflows have accelerated, with overall capital inflows slowing down [24][28] - The new issuance scale of equity funds decreased to 8.87 billion, down from 19.41 billion [35] - Foreign capital inflow into the A-share market was 25.9 million USD, with the northbound capital transaction proportion dropping to 11.6% [46][48] A-Share Industry Allocation - Financing capital is flowing into the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors, while foreign capital is entering the banking sector [3][46] - The net inflow for the pharmaceutical sector was 6.7 billion, and for electronics, it was 6.06 billion [3] - The ETF capital flow showed net inflows in food and beverage (+0.95 billion) and coal (+0.22 billion), while electronics (-11.09 billion) and pharmaceuticals (-6.46 billion) experienced net outflows [3][46] Hong Kong and Global Capital Flow - Southbound capital inflows increased, with net purchases rising to 59.02 billion, the highest since 2022 [4][48] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.5%, with major global markets also experiencing declines, particularly the French CAC40 index, which dropped by 3.7% [4][48] - Foreign capital primarily flowed into developed markets, with the US receiving 4.06 billion and the UK 0.98 billion [4][48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The lawn mowing robot industry is reaching a "singularity" moment, with companies possessing technological advantages and overseas experience likely to emerge as winners [4]. - The market for lawn mowing robots is vast and mature, with a potential market space of up to 3 million units, driven by the rigid demand for lawn maintenance in private gardens across Europe and the US [6][14]. - The global sales of lawn mowing robots are expected to reach 3 million units in the future, with significant growth anticipated as technology matures and prices decrease [24]. Summary by Sections 1. The Rise of Boundaryless Intelligent Lawn Mowing Robots - The transition from traditional lawn mowers to intelligent robots represents a significant technological evolution, with the average annual cost of intelligent lawn mowing robots around $183 [8][11]. - The mainstream technology route for these robots is RTK + visual fusion, which enhances operational efficiency in complex environments [11][12]. 2. Huge Market Demand and Growing Intelligence - The US and Europe account for 72% of the global private garden market, with a strong cultural emphasis on lawn maintenance [14][15]. - The penetration rate of intelligent lawn mowing robots remains low, particularly in the US, where it is less than 5% [18]. 3. Industry Competition and Key Players - The industry features three main types of players: traditional outdoor power equipment giants, technology-driven companies, and startups focusing on price advantages [27]. - Notable companies include Husqvarna and Worx, which dominate the market but face challenges from innovative tech firms like Ninebot and Ecovacs [28][30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with technological leadership and international experience, specifically Ninebot (2025 PE: 22.7×), Ecovacs (23.3×), and Roborock (20.4×) [48].

Group 1: Cross-Asset Overview - The report indicates a general pullback in equity markets, with safe-haven assets outperforming risk assets. The Hong Kong stock market led declines in developed markets, while South Korea's stock market led declines in emerging markets. Commodity prices showed increased divergence, with oil prices rebounding but copper prices plummeting over 20% due to policy impacts. The overall bond market in China showed signs of recovery, while the US dollar strengthened against other currencies [7][20][57]. Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The global equity market experienced a widespread pullback, with developed and emerging markets declining simultaneously. In developed markets, major US indices fell over 2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped 4.2%. In emerging markets, South Korea's KOSDAQ fell 4.2%, driven by concerns over tax reforms proposed by the government, which included raising capital gains tax thresholds and increasing corporate tax rates [20][21][25]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward. The 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowed, indicating a stable bond market environment. In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve also moving downward but the 10Y-2Y spread widening. The market anticipates an 80.3% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data [38][39]. Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity prices shifted from rising to falling, with copper prices experiencing a significant drop of 23.3%. The report highlights that oil and gold prices increased, while other commodities faced declines. The US dollar index rose by 1% during the week, supported by strong GDP growth and employment data from the US, leading to a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [57][58][62].

宏观研究 / 2025.08.03 鲍威尔鹰派讲话,非农数据引发震荡 -- 海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读: 美欧协定达成、强韧的 GDP 数据、以及鲍威尔鹰派发言共同推升美元指数破百,但 随后大幅下修的非农就业引发市场震荡,市场押注美联储在9月降息的概率陡然提 升。日央行按兵不动符合市场预期。中美瑞典贸易协商宣布继续推动 90天展期,关 注谈判后续进展。 投资要点: | d | 梁中华(分析师) | | --- | --- | | પ | 021-23219820 | | D | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | ને | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | ಲ | 021-38674711 | | 0 | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | 相关报告 | 美日协议提振市场信心,欧央行按兵不动 | | --- | | 2025.07.27 | | "反内卷"下的涨价 2025.07.27 | | 美国:居民消费仍具韧性 2025.07.20 | | 生产改善,消费分化 2025.07. ...

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[7] - Retail sales of automobiles have slightly declined, with wholesale volumes increasing marginally, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts[16] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline[16] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[22] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[22] Import and Export Dynamics - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[32] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3%, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[32] Production and Inventory - Overall production has shown marginal weakening, with coal consumption rising seasonally but still reflecting a year-on-year decline[36] - Inventory levels for coal at ports have slightly decreased, while cement and steel inventories have shown seasonal increases[39] Price Movements - Consumer prices continue to decline, with the iCPI showing a slight decrease in year-on-year growth, particularly in transportation and healthcare sectors[42] - Industrial prices are also experiencing a marginal decline, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1%[42] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressure in the funding market[46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the surge in demand due to the food delivery competition has significantly enhanced Luckin Coffee's supply chain and operational advantages, focusing on a growth strategy centered around scale [2]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 45.003 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.54% [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of RMB 12.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.08%, and a GAAP net profit of RMB 1.251 billion, up 43.56% year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24.903 billion - 2024: RMB 34.475 billion - 2025E: RMB 45.003 billion - 2026E: RMB 52.134 billion - 2027E: RMB 56.961 billion - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of: - 2023: RMB 2.848 billion - 2024: RMB 2.932 billion - 2025E: RMB 3.803 billion - 2026E: RMB 4.668 billion - 2027E: RMB 5.091 billion [4][8]. - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for self-operated stores in Q2 2025 was reported at 21.0%, with a gross margin benefiting from supply chain efficiencies [7]. Market Data - The current stock price is USD 38.26, with a market capitalization of USD 10.8 billion [1][5]. - The stock has traded within a range of USD 17.28 to USD 39.98 over the past 52 weeks [5]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report suggests a target price of USD 46.82 for the company, based on a PE ratio of 25 times the expected earnings for 2025, which is above the industry average [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire Jingzhi Minerals for 6.5 billion CNY, which will significantly increase its ore resource volume. The expected production of titanium concentrate and vanadium-titanium iron concentrate will rise, and the company's performance is anticipated to gradually improve as new mines commence operations [2][11]. - The acquisition is expected to create strong synergies as the newly acquired mine is part of the same mineral vein as the company's existing operations, allowing for collaborative mining efforts [11]. - The company is progressing steadily with its 60,000-ton titanium material project, which will extend its current titanium concentrate business and open new growth opportunities in various applications [11]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 1,856 million CNY, with a slight decrease of 7.0% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to grow to 3,325 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant increase of 63.2% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 936 million CNY in 2023, with a decline of 14.5%, but is expected to rise to 1,029 million CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.98 CNY in 2023, increasing to 2.18 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to 39 CNY, based on a 20x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, which is slightly above the industry average [11][13]. - The current market price is 29.61 CNY, with a market capitalization of 13,976 million CNY [6][11]. Industry Context - The company operates in the metals and mining sector, focusing on titanium concentrate and iron ore, with plans to expand into titanium materials [5][11]. - The report compares the company with peers in the industry, indicating a favorable position due to its resource base and ongoing projects [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Modern Dairy, with a target price of HKD 1.59 per share, corresponding to a 1.09 times P/B ratio for 2025 [7][11][17]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, benefiting from a cyclical recovery and demonstrating strong earnings elasticity. The report anticipates a rebound in raw milk prices and a return to supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025 [3][11][53]. - The company has implemented a cost leadership strategy across its entire supply chain, which includes feed production, dairy farming, and processing, aiming to reduce procurement costs and enhance operational efficiency [11][20][45]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 133.50 billion, RMB 145.99 billion, and RMB 163.47 billion, reflecting growth rates of 0.7%, 9.4%, and 12.0% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be -RMB 5.80 billion, RMB 4.38 billion, and RMB 15.84 billion, with EPS of -0.07, 0.06, and 0.20 yuan per share [5][16][19]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.0% in 2024 to 33.6% by 2027, driven by cost reductions and increased milk prices [5][19]. Industry Position - Modern Dairy holds a 7% market share in the dairy industry as of 2024, with a significant portion of its raw milk sales being secured by its major shareholder, Mengniu Dairy, which has consistently purchased over 90% of the company's raw milk [11][32][20]. - The company has expanded its operations through acquisitions and innovative leasing models, allowing for low-cost expansion and increased production capacity [20][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has focused on optimizing its herd structure, increasing the proportion of productive cows, and enhancing milk yield through digital management systems. The average milk yield per cow is expected to exceed 13 tons in the first half of 2025 [60][11]. - Cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in feed costs, with the cost per kilogram of milk dropping by 16.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.95 in 2024 [45][46].