本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 全球资产多数波动率高位回落 -- 全球风险监控周报(20250325) 本报告导读: 该报告对全球宏观经济和权益、债券、商品、外汇市场的风险进行监控,为投资者 提供当前全球风险指标动态。 投资要点: 权益市场:全球主要股票市场 30日波动率多数上升。全球股票市场 10 日波动率下降居多,发达市场波动率全数下降。 债券市场:美债收益率曲线下移。美国高收益债信用利差继续上行。 全球主要市场 10Y 国债收益率波动率普遍下降。 商品市场:商品市场波动率多数回落,金铜比价震荡,黄金的避险 需求小幅下降。金油比价、金银比价上升。 外汇市场:发达市场汇率波动率涨跌各半。发达市场汇率10日波动 率延续下跌趋势,美元兑人民币波动率继续上涨。 跨市场比较:全球资产 10 日波动率多数下降,金属商品逆势上升。 全球大类资产相关性矩阵显示,美元指数其他发达市场国债收益率 负相关性增强。 风险提示:全球央行货币政策超预期;风险指标选择具有局限性。 相关报告 本周小市值风格占优,价量、估值因子表现较好 2025.03.24 Q 全球宏观风险 上周(2025/03/17-2025/03/21)美国、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The education industry remains buoyant, with the company experiencing significant revenue growth in 2024 and further potential for growth in 2025 [3][8] - The company has shown a remarkable increase in contract liabilities, indicating strong pre-sales in its quality education segment [8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.02 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.2% [8] - Gross profit for 2024 is expected to be 5.10 billion RMB, up 121.9% year-on-year [8] - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 1.92 billion RMB, reflecting a 114% increase compared to the previous year [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 46.3%, slightly down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Contract liabilities reached 6.02 billion RMB, a significant increase of 184.27% year-on-year, primarily driven by prepayments in the quality education business [8] Business Segmentation - Revenue from quality education in 2024 is expected to be 7.13 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 411.75% year-on-year [8] - Full-time education revenue is projected at 2.07 billion RMB, with a modest growth of 0.98% year-on-year [8] - Tutoring project revenue is anticipated to be 1.81 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.20% [8] Market Position and Technology Integration - The company is expected to enhance its market share in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen markets, supported by AI applications that improve operational efficiency [8] - The integration of AI into the company's educational systems aims to provide personalized learning experiences and improve teaching effectiveness [8]

国泰君安晨报 2025 年 03 月 25 日 国泰君安证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 重点推荐： 1、食品饮料，2025 年春糖参与热度同比较低，酒厂、渠道、资本市场更加理性。从调研反馈来 看，白酒节后动销平稳，表现符合预期；大众品部分品类边际改善，以创新驱动增长。 2、龙源电力，风电装机占比较高，受益来风好转短期盈利改善在即；随着老旧风场改造、资产 注入推进，长期盈利空间打开。 3、电子，测试机作为 AI 算力铲子环节，随着 GPU 和 HBM 芯片放量，量价齐升。国内 AI 基建 爆发，测试机从 0 到 1，将深度受益。 4、钢铁，中信特钢 2024 年业绩符合预期。行业需求下行，公司积极调整产品结构，持续提升高 端产品的占比，同时不断降本、加大研发，业绩行业领先。 5、建筑，预测 2025 年广义基建资金同比增长 7.3%，增速提高 14 个百分点。受益地方化债节奏 前置，2025 年基建有望提早发力，推荐低估值高股息的央企和地方建筑公司等。 6、有色，2024 年紫金矿业金铜量价齐升，业绩再创新高，2025-2026 年公司多个核心项目迎收获 期，美联储降息周期下，金铜价格 ...

大 类 资 产 配 置 全球资产多数波动率高位回落 [Table_Authors] 王鹤(分析师) ——全球风险监控周报（20250325） 本报告导读： 该报告对全球宏观经济和权益、债券、商品、外汇市场的风险进行监控，为投资者 提供当前全球风险指标动态。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球宏观风险 上周（2025/03/17-2025/03/21）美国、中国和新兴市场经济意外指数 上行，欧洲、日本经济意外指数下行。美英每日经济政策不确定性 指数高位回落。美联储和欧洲央行缩表节奏平稳，美国银行业存款 净流入，OFR 金融压力指数继续回落。地缘政治风险指数高位回落。 全球市场风险 权益市场：全球主要股票市场 30 日波动率多数上升。全球股票市场 10 日波动率下降居多，发达市场波动率全数下降。 债券市场：美债收益率曲线下移。美国高收益债信用利差继续上行。 全球主要市场 10Y 国债收益率波动率普遍下降。 商品市场：商品市场波动率多数回落，金铜比价震荡，黄金的避险 需求小幅下降。金油比价、金银比价上升。 外汇市场：发达市场汇率波动率涨跌各半。发达市场汇率 10 日波动 率延续下跌趋势，美元兑人民币波 ...

高切低深化，重视业绩确定性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债策略周报 本报告导读： 建议通过控制转债绝对价格控制回撤，选择正股估值不高且业绩确定性较强的转债， 低估值科技和景气度修复的顺周期板块均衡配置。此外，流动性冲击带来的大盘转 债下跌往往是较好的布局机会。 投资要点： | | guyige@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-38038201 S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 二季度的债市：利率下行不必等待降准降息 2025.03.24 科创债发行特征回顾与展望 2025.03.19 存单一级和短资金背离后：跨季资金如何演绎 2025.03.18 板块分化，消费领涨 2025.03.17 顺势而为，布局内需 2025.03.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 市 场 策 略 周 报 [Table_Summary] 业绩验证期临近，权益市场或延续震荡，建议控制转债绝对价格， 择券需更重视业绩确定性。根 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry shows a long-term growth logic, with passenger traffic in January-February increasing by 6% year-on-year, and load factors recovering to 2019 levels. The new flight season is expected to support supply and demand recovery, with anticipated growth in business travel and ticket price recovery. Improved cost pressures may aid in better-than-expected profit recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Passenger Traffic - During the Spring Festival period of 40 days, passenger volume increased by 7.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high. For January-February, the industry passenger volume grew by 6% year-on-year, which is an 18% increase compared to 2019. Domestic and international traffic increased by 3% and 39% year-on-year, respectively, with international traffic showing positive growth for the first time compared to 2019 [3][20] Load Factor - The industry load factor for January-February was 84%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining consistent with 2019 levels. This trend continues from December 2024, where the increase compared to 2019 has narrowed [20][21] Ticket Prices - By the end of 2024, airlines' revenue management strategies have positively changed, continuing into the Spring Festival. Due to high base numbers and a reduction in fuel surcharges, it is estimated that domestic ticket prices fell by 5% year-on-year in January-February, with prices including fuel dropping by nearly 10%. After the Lantern Festival, domestic ticket prices remained stable year-on-year, and recently began to rise with the recovery of business travel post the Two Sessions [3][20] Airline Operations - In January-February, the turnover of airlines continued to improve year-on-year, with expectations that the growth rate of domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) will gradually decrease. The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see continued improvement in fleet turnover and load factors, with a year-on-year increase in ASK of 5% for the three major airlines compared to 2019 [3][20] Flight Schedule Changes - The summer flight season will begin on March 30, 2025. The total planned flight volume is expected to decrease by 3% year-on-year, while actual flight operations are anticipated to stabilize. Domestic flight plans are expected to decrease by 3.9% year-on-year, while international flight plans are projected to increase by 4% year-on-year, recovering nearly 84% compared to the summer season of 2019 [3][20] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the recovery in profitability for airlines may exceed expectations due to improved unit non-fuel cost pressures and a 10% year-on-year decrease in aviation fuel prices. The consensus among airlines is that ticket price recovery is expected in 2025, with a focus on business demand growth and ticket price recovery [3][20] Company Ratings - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for several airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [3][32]

Group 1 - The construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center is a necessary path for China to become a financial power, serving as a hub for global capital flow, financial innovation, and regulatory systems [6][13][16] - Shanghai's financial market system is comprehensive, covering various sectors such as stocks, bonds, futures, and foreign exchange, making it a crucial window for China's financial innovation and openness [13][19][20] Group 2 - The Shanghai International Financial Center comprises five key elements: financial regulation and control, financial factor markets, financial product markets, financial infrastructure, and financial institutions, which are essential for its development [17][18] - The financial market in Shanghai is extensive, with a total trading volume of 337.36 trillion yuan in 2023, ranking first globally, and is expected to grow by 8.2% to 365.03 trillion yuan in 2024 [19][20] Group 3 - Shanghai's international financial center has significant advantages in promoting the development of other centers, including economic, trade, shipping, and technological innovation centers, creating a synergistic effect [25][26] - The international influence of the Shanghai International Financial Center is limited, with foreign investment in the stock market at approximately 4%, significantly lower than that of New York and London [30][33] Group 4 - The development of an offshore financial center is crucial for enhancing the internationalization of the Shanghai International Financial Center, with a focus on providing offshore financial services to non-residents and qualified resident enterprises [47][52] - The construction of a domestic offshore financial market is a key focus, with the aim of improving the international competitiveness of financial services and facilitating the internationalization of the renminbi [52][54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BOSS Zhipin is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 98.01, reflecting an upward adjustment based on a valuation of 25x PE for 2025, which is above the industry average [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady market share growth, with AI and specific job sectors gradually improving in demand. The implementation of AI-related products is expected to contribute to incremental revenue [4][11]. - The financial performance for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 1.824 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 722 million, up 14.92% [11]. - The company has adjusted its projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 3.299 billion and RMB 3.998 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision due to increased expenses [4][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth from 2021 to 2024 shows a significant increase, with 2024 projected revenue at RMB 7.356 billion, representing a 24% increase year-on-year. The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 2.710 billion, a 25.72% increase [7][11]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with a decrease in sales and R&D expense ratios, contributing to a 27% growth in operating profit [11]. - The blue-collar market has expanded, with blue-collar revenue accounting for 38% of total revenue in Q4 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 603 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 105.4% after excluding the impact of consolidating Zhong An International [3][10]. - The profit improvement is attributed to three main factors: stable underwriting profit, significant investment income boost due to market recovery, and the technology segment turning profitable [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenue of 19,314 million RMB in 2024, a 15% increase from 2023 [8]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2024 is projected at 603 million RMB, a substantial recovery from a loss of 13.56 million RMB in 2022 [8][11]. - **Investment Returns**: Total investment income increased to 13.35 billion RMB in 2024, with a total investment return rate of 3.4%, up by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - **Premium Income**: The company achieved premium income of 334.17 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year growth [11]. Business Segments Performance - **Health Ecosystem**: Premium income reached 103.38 billion RMB, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from critical illness insurance and outpatient insurance [10][11]. - **Digital Life Ecosystem**: This segment saw a 28.9% increase in premium income to 161.97 billion RMB, driven by e-commerce return insurance and travel business [10][11]. - **Consumer Finance Ecosystem**: Premium income decreased by 12.9% to 48.32 billion RMB as the company reduced business scale to manage credit risk [10][11]. - **Automotive Financial Ecosystem**: Premium income grew by 29.8% to 20.51 billion RMB, with new growth expected from compulsory traffic accident insurance [10][11]. Technology and Banking Improvements - The technology segment generated revenue of 9.56 billion RMB, marking a 15.3% increase, and turned profitable with a net profit of 0.78 billion RMB [10][11]. - Zhong An Bank's net income rose by 52.6% to 5.48 billion HKD, with the net loss rate narrowing significantly [10][11]. - The application of AI technology across business scenarios is expected to enhance operational efficiency and open new growth avenues for technology output [10].