Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the U.S. debt market, with a focus on the recent fluctuations in bond yields, particularly the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields [4] - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical events, such as tariff negotiations involving the Philippines and the EU's potential countermeasures against the U.S. [4] - The report notes the performance of major stock indices, including the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2016.00, down by 1.75% [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 20892.69, down by 0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44502.44, up by 0.40% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at 68.67, down by 0.78%, and the London gold spot price was at 3431.20, up by 1.02% [5] - The U.S. dollar index was at 97.36, down by 0.49%, and the exchange rate for USD to RMB was 7.18, down by 0.02% [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25130.03, up by 0.54%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was at 9075.60, up by 0.39% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3581.86, up by 0.62%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index was at 2188.95, up by 0.58% [5] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4118.96, up by 0.82%, and the ChiNext Index was at 2310.86, up by 0.61% [5]

2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：大而美法案将使美国赤字增加 3.4 万亿 美元 惠誉下调美国 25%行业前景评级至"恶化" 伊朗外长称伊朗不能放弃核浓缩 韩国政府正在考虑提高股票交易税，并恢复放宽的资本利得 税起征点 国家能源局：6 月份全社会用电量同比增长 5.4% 《海南自由贸易港跨境资产管理试点业务实施细则》发布 成都出台房产新政：分批取消住房限售政策 京东一天连投 3 家机器人公司 Neuralink 首次一天内完成两台手术 微软服务器软件近日曝出严重安全漏洞 2 年期美债收益率跌 1.05 个基点报 3.8523% 5 年期美债收益率跌 2.63 个基点报 3.9132% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.38 个基点报 4.3757% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds last week was mainly dominated by sovereign bonds and the urban investment sector, while the secondary market showed a slight increase. The US Treasury yields fluctuated, and there were various macroeconomic events and data changes both in the US and China [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 17 Chinese offshore bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total scale of approximately $2.61 billion, mainly from sovereign bonds and the urban investment industry [1][6] - The Ministry of Finance of China issued 3 senior bonds totaling 6 billion RMB, which was the largest issuance scale last week [1][8] - Chengdu Tianfu Dagang Group issued a $200 million senior unsecured guaranteed bond with a coupon rate of 7%, which was the newly issued bond with the highest pricing last week [8] - Due to strong market demand, Swire Properties issued 3 green bonds totaling 3.5 billion RMB, with coupon rates of 2.60%, 2.85%, and 3.45%, and the final subscription was over 6 times [8] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Performance of Chinese US Dollar Bond Index - Last week, the Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.23% week - on - week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index fell 0.04%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds was at 195.7587, with a weekly increase of 0.23%; the high - yield index was at 161.005, with a weekly increase of 0.2% [10] - The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.22% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index was at 237.1, with a weekly increase of 0.21%; the high - yield return index was at 240.0892, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [4] 3.2.2 Performance of Different Industries of Chinese US Dollar Bonds - In terms of industries, the healthcare and communication sectors led the gains, while the real estate and essential consumer sectors led the losses. The healthcare sector's yield decreased by 414.4 bps, and the communication sector's yield decreased by 30.9 bps. The real estate sector's yield increased by 1.3 Mbps, and the essential consumer sector's yield increased by 11.3 bps [19] 3.2.3 Performance of Different Ratings of Chinese US Dollar Bonds - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive rating, investment - grade names all rose, with the weekly yield of A - rated names decreasing by 5.7 bps and that of BBB - rated names decreasing by 4.1 bps. Most high - yield names fell, with the yield of BB - rated names decreasing by 5.7 bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names increasing by about 120.1 bps, and the yield of unrated names increasing by 346.0 bps [21] 3.2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Zhengrong Real Estate Holding Co., Ltd. failed to repay the principal of RMB 647 million and bond interest of RMB 13 million of the due debt [22] - China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. announced that as of June 30, 2025, the cumulative amount of debt restructuring of financial debts in its "Debt Restructuring Plan" through signing and other means was approximately RMB 192.669 billion [23] - Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. announced that 149,902,564 shares held by its shareholder, Tibet Shimao Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., accounting for 3.9962% of the company's total share capital, were frozen [24] 3.2.5 Subject Rating Adjustments Last Week - Zhejiang Seaport Group's long - term issuer rating was A, and the rating outlook was stable. The reason was that its IDR and outlook were consistent with Fitch's internal assessment of the credit status of the Zhejiang provincial government [26] - Everbright Bank's long - term domestic and foreign currency deposit rating was Baa2, and the rating outlook was stable. Moody's expected the bank to maintain stable asset quality, capitalization, profitability, and liquidity in the next 12 - 18 months [26] - FWD Group's issuer rating was upgraded from Baa2 to Baa1, and the rating outlook was stable. The upgrade reflected the improvement of its profitability and capital generation ability [26] 3.3 US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [27] 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of July 18, the 1 - year US Treasury yield was 4.0633%, down 0.24 bps from last week; the 2 - year yield was 3.8691%, down 1.59 bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.9465%, down 2.62 bps; the 10 - year yield was 4.4155%, up 0.62 bps [32] 3.5 Macro News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with market expectations; the PPI in June was flat month - on - month, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase; the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000; retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than market expectations [29][30][33][34] - The US House of Representatives passed two cryptocurrency bills; President Trump said that drug tariffs might be introduced by the end of the month; the US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation against Brazil; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman has officially started [35][36][37][38] - Japan's exports to the US decreased year - on - year for the third consecutive month in June; in the first half of the year, China's GDP was 66.05 trillion RMB, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; China's social financing scale increment in the first half of the year was 4.74 trillion RMB more than the same period last year; China's goods trade import and export value increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year [40][41][42][43] - China's youth unemployment rate (excluding students) aged 16 - 24 in June dropped to 14.5%; Shanghai residents' per capita disposable income in the first half of the year reached 46,805 RMB, ranking first; the retail sales of the national passenger car market from July 1 - 13 increased by 7% year - on - year [44][45][47] - The housing prices in Chinese cities decreased month - on - month in June, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow; the Dealer Association completed the registration of panda bonds worth 153.5 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year - on - year increase of 165% [48][49]

【实时热点】 2025 年 7 月 21 日星期一 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普签署稳定币法案 美联储理事沃勒继续发出 7 月降息的呼吁 美国 7 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 61.8，创五个月新 高 日本执政联盟丧失参议院过半数议席 日本 6 月核心 CPI 同比回落至 3.3% 伦敦证券交易所集团考虑推出 24 小时交易 我国消费市场规模稳居全球第二 娃哈哈宗氏财产纠纷案定于 8 月 1 日在香港高等法院聆讯 饿了么、美团、京东被约谈 加密货币交易所 Bullish 申请美国 IPO 2 年期美债收益率跌 3.32 个基点报 3.8628% 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.92 个基点报 3.9395% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.98 个基点报 4.4095% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 2052 ...

2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 【实时热点】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 【美国债市】 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 1906.00 | 2.14 | 纳斯达克指数 | 20885.65 | 0.75 | | CME比特币期货 | 119735.00 | 0.09 | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44484.49 | 0.52 | | ICE布油 | 69.65 | 1.65 | 美元指数 | 98.64 | 0.36 | | 伦敦金现 | 3338.85 | -0.21 | 标普500 | 6297.36 | 0.54 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | 7.18 | 0.03 | 日经225 | 39901.19 | 0.60 | | 香港重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 24498.95 | -0 ...

Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4.81 basis points to 3.885%[2] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4.75 basis points to 3.989%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 2.40 basis points to 4.457%[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 20,730.49, up 0.25%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,254.78, up 0.53%[5] - The S&P 500 index finished at 6,263.70, up 0.32%[5] Commodity and Currency Data - The Baltic Dry Index rose to 1,866.00, an increase of 4.66%[5] - Brent crude oil price remained stable at $68.71[5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.18, up 0.06%[5]

Key Insights - The report highlights that the US core CPI has been below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating potential shifts in inflation trends [3] - The global smartphone market experienced a year-on-year decline of 1% in Q2 2025, suggesting challenges in consumer demand [3] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of this year, reflecting a stable economic environment [3] - The eleventh batch of national drug procurement has been initiated, including 55 varieties, which may impact the pharmaceutical industry [3] - China’s biopharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant activity, with a $500 million acquisition of an innovative drug company [3] - Nvidia is set to resume sales of its H20 product in China, indicating a recovery in the tech supply chain [3] - The CEO of Yushutech reported a noticeable increase in robot shipments this year, highlighting growth in the robotics sector [3] - The integration of thousands of vehicles from Luobo Kuaipao into Uber's global mobility network signifies expansion in the ride-hailing market [3] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1783.00, up 7.22% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 20677.80, with a slight increase of 0.18% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44023.29, down 0.98% [4] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6243.76, decreasing by 0.40% [4] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was $68.86, down 0.51% [4] - The London gold price was $3323.14, down 0.59% [4] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.17, up 0.06% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24590.12, up 1.60% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505.00, down 0.42% [4]

1 证 2025 年 7 月 15 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 券 研 究 报 告 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动 232 调查 特朗普威胁对俄罗斯征收 100%的二级关税 特朗普将宣布 700 亿美元 AI 和能源投资，贝莱德等公司的 高管将亲临现场 欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税 日本参议院选举前引发财政忧虑 日债收益率逼近历史高位 6 月金融数据：M2 增速回升，社融增量 4.2 万亿元 中国 6 月稀土出口量升至 2009 年以来最高水平 中国 6 月大豆进口创历年同期新高 巴西供应大增 上半年新注册登记新能源汽车 562.2 万辆 创历史新高 扎克伯格：Meta 将在 AI 领域投资数千亿美元 2 年期美债收益率涨 0.99 个基点报 3.896% 5 年期美债收益率涨 1.58 个基点报 3.985% 10 年期美债收益率涨 2.40 个基点报 4.433% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌( ...

Key Points - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff revenue has exceeded 100 billion for the first time this fiscal year, with a year-on-year increase of 301% [4] - The report mentions that the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee has approved 500 million in aid to Ukraine [4] - The report notes that the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has extended the suspension of countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August [4] - Canada has postponed its plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. aluminum and steel [4] - The report indicates that China's natural uranium production has achieved a breakthrough with the successful production of its first uranium [4] - It is projected that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's automobile export scale may reach its peak [4] - The report states that the new housing market in first-tier cities is becoming increasingly active [4] - Meituan's instant retail order volume has reached a new high [4] - Elon Musk's xAI is planning a new round of financing, with a target valuation soaring to 200 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1663.00, up 13.52% [5] - CME Bitcoin futures closed at 118,140.00, up 3.75% [5] - ICE Brent crude oil closed at 70.63, up 2.90% [5] - The London gold spot price closed at 3354.75, up 0.95% [5] - The U.S. dollar index closed at 97.87, up 0.29% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24139.57, up 0.46% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, up 0.01% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 6.89, indicating a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 5.43 [7]. Core Insights - The company, 卓越教育集团 (Excellence Education Group), is a leading player in the K12 education sector in South China, focusing on comprehensive growth services for children. The company has successfully transitioned to quality education, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the coming years [4][6]. - The K12 education market in Guangdong is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by strong demand for quality non-subject education [5]. - The company has a strong brand reputation and teaching capabilities, with a high retention rate of nearly 80% for summer courses in Guangzhou. The introduction of AI-driven courses aligns with national trends, further enhancing its market position [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997 and listed in 2018, the company has shifted its focus from traditional subject education to quality education, particularly after the "double reduction" policy in 2021. The revenue from quality education is expected to account for 64.74% of total revenue by 2024 [16][21]. Industry Analysis - The "double reduction" policy has led to a significant reduction in the number of K9 subject training institutions, with a decrease of 96% in offline institutions. This has created opportunities for quality education providers [43][44]. - The demand for quality education remains strong, with increasing enrollment rates in high schools and a growing emphasis on comprehensive student development [48]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 19.95 billion, HKD 23.81 billion, and HKD 28.11 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.25 billion, HKD 3.82 billion, and HKD 4.46 billion, reflecting robust growth rates [7][8].