Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company achieved a strong performance in 2024, with total revenue and net profit reaching 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16% and 15% [5] - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, maintaining high cash dividends, with a total payout of 64.67 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with expected EPS of 75.23 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price is currently at 1568.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 1970.8 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue and net profit were 51.02 billion and 25.40 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 13% and 16% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 91.93% and 52.27%, with slight decreases compared to the previous year [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion and 24.68 billion yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 20% [6] - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10%, while the average price rose by 5% [6] Channel Performance - Revenue from wholesale and direct sales channels was 95.77 billion and 74.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 11% [7] - International revenue surpassed 5 billion yuan for the first time, indicating successful internationalization efforts [8] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9.1% for 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 9.6% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Qingdao Beer [1][8] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly declined year-on-year due to environmental impacts, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 at 32.138 billion and 4.345 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5% and +2% [2] - The company has shown significant cost optimization effects, leading to a slight increase in gross margin, with gross and net profit margins for 2024 at 40% and 14%, respectively, both up by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and diversify its channels, with a focus on high-end and ultra-high-end products, which accounted for 73% of the main brand's sales in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 3.179 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -645 million yuan, indicating a slight increase in losses [2] - Operating net cash flow for 2024 was significantly improved, reaching 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86% [2] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 8.313 billion yuan, an increase of 2.868 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Product and Market Strategy - Overall beer sales volume and price per ton in 2024 decreased by 5.9% and increased by 0.4%, respectively [3] - The company launched new products such as the "A Series" and "Nika Xi White Beer" to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - The sales ratio of ready-to-drink and non-ready-to-drink markets was 41.2% and 58.8%, respectively, with online product sales increasing by 21% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.55, 3.84, and 4.11 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -5.3% for 2024, followed by 4.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% for the subsequent years [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows that the debt - to - GDP ratio of the real - economic sector will decline, and the fiscal policy front - loading will end around the end of March and early April. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the value style is more dominant. The recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF, Shanghai Composite 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The recommended industries are mainly A + H dividend - type stocks in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [2][7][24] - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - economic sector's debt will decline, and the asset side is expected to operate stably. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of assets with stable returns and appropriately take on high - risk assets to obtain high returns [22] Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In February 2025, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector was 8.4%, slightly lower than expected. It is expected to rebound to around 8.6% in March and then decline. The government's debt growth rate is expected to reach a high point around the end of March and early April and then decline. By the end of the year, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector is expected to drop to around 8%, and that of the government sector to around 12.6% [2][18][19] - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase of government bonds was 495.5 billion yuan, higher than the plan. This week, it is planned to have a net reduction of 435.7 billion yuan. The fiscal policy front - loading started around mid - January and will basically end around the end of March and early April [3][19] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market showed a marginal relaxation. The yield of the one - year Treasury bond closed at 1.48% at the weekend, and the term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 24 basis points. The asset side may operate stably in the future, and it is necessary to observe whether the nominal economic growth rate of about 5% will become the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [4][20] 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - The stock - bond market continued the trend of a weak stock market and a strong bond market last week, with the value style remaining dominant. The yields of short - and long - term bonds declined significantly. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is gradually shifting to value. This week, the recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position), Shanghai Composite 50 Index (60% position), and CSI 1000 Index (20% position) [7][23][24] - Since 2016, China has entered a period of marginal contraction of the national balance sheet. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of stable - return assets and appropriately take on high - risk assets. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness is biased towards bonds, and specific allocation strategies are proposed for stocks and bonds [22] 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and banking had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had the largest decreases [31] 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of April 3, the top five crowded industries were electronics, machinery and equipment, computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased this week, with non - bank finance, banking, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and retail trade having the largest increases in trading volume, and national defense and military industry, coal, oil and petrochemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals having the largest decreases [34][36] 3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of social services, computer, public utilities, retail trade, and national defense and military industry increased the most, while that of comprehensive, automobile, household appliances, power equipment, and non - bank finance decreased the most. Industries with high profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, transportation, food and beverage, liquor, household appliances, telecommunications, and consumer electronics [39][40] 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined in March, and the CCFI index decreased. However, the port throughput increased, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam rose. In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price increased slightly, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in March, and the automobile trading volume was at a historically high level [44] 3.5 Public - Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of March (March 24 - 28), most active public - fund equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of March 28, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds was 3.56 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59] 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is only slightly biased towards equities, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, oil and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][64]

资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2025 年 04 月 06 日 看内需寻成长型选手 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 传媒(申万) -1.5 11.5 10.1 沪深 300 -0.7 2.3 8.2 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 传媒 沪深300 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：内需与出海托 举大潮玩时代 港股先行 A 股洼地也 可期》2025-03-30 2、《传媒行业周报：从内容生产到 消费终端交互 AI 有望拉动全链条革 新》2025-03-22 3、《传媒行业周报：AI 应用增多推 高线上营销 关注 AI 赋能线下场 景》2025-03-15 ▌ 本周观点更新 外部关税因子叠加内部的业绩期，求稳防御情绪主导下，交 易面偏向稳健为主，传媒板块稳健代表主要在教育出版领 域，代表企业如中南传媒、南方传媒、皖 ...

2025 年 04 月 05 日 与国内相比，美国最近的变化更加值得高度关注，通过分析 大滞涨后的美国历史，我们认为，美国目前的情况与互联网 泡沫破裂时（2001 年）非常相似，科技的估值或将被重新进 行系统性的重估。而中国也迎来了历史性的机遇，如果我们 不忘初心、文化自信，西降东升或已开启，重点关注人民币 汇率是否开始逐步进入升值通道。回顾大滞涨后的美国历 史，有两段时期美国的表现令人惊艳，实际经济增速显著高 于潜在趋势水平、通胀可控、宏观杠杆率稳中略降、美元表 现强势。一段是互联网革命期间，具体而言是 1996-2000 年 5 年，第二段是过去的 3 年，即 2022-2024 年；前一段已经 被学术界广泛研究，比如前美联储主席耶伦就著有《令人惊 艳的十年》，第二段目前则关注不多。2022-2024 年，美国 实际经济增速分别录得 2.5%、2.9%、2.8%，均显著高于美联 储给出的长期潜在增长预估（1.8%），但根据美联储 3 月议 息会议给出的预估，2025-2027 年美国实际经济增速分别为 1.7%、1.8%、1.8%。4 月 30 日美国将公布一季度数据，我们 倾向于认为，如果美国一季度实际 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue projected at 9.026 billion yuan, representing a 25% increase year-on-year [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 1.764 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a substantial growth of 119.5% compared to the previous year [11] - The report highlights a decrease in sales costs for gold mining operations, contributing to improved profitability [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, up 24.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.764 billion yuan, up 119.46% year-on-year [4] - The production and sales volume of gold increased by 5.60% and 4.88% respectively, while the production and sales of electrolytic copper and copper concentrate declined [5] Cost Management - The sales cost for gold in Q4 2024 was 269.18 yuan per gram, showing a decrease of 1.31% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The overall cost of gold mining operations decreased significantly, with a full cost of 270.06 yuan per gram, down 18.83% quarter-on-quarter [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.268 billion yuan, an increase of 48.36% year-on-year [8] - The asset-liability ratio improved from 54.36% in 2023 to 47.25% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt levels [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 11.105 billion yuan, 11.585 billion yuan, and 11.905 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.845 billion yuan, 3.218 billion yuan, and 3.455 billion yuan [9][11] - The report anticipates a continued decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, with values of 14.6, 12.9, and 12.1 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 2 percentage points to 37.00% due to declining raw material costs, while the net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 23.63% [2] - The company plans to continue increasing its investment in marketing and promotional activities to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from soy sauce reached 13.758 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 2.5655 million tons, reflecting a 9% increase in revenue and a 12% increase in volume [3] - The revenue from other categories, including vinegar and cooking wine, grew by 17% to 4.086 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in smaller product categories [3] Channel Development - Offline channel revenue was 23.885 billion yuan, up 9%, driven by enhanced distribution network density and resource allocation [4] - Online channel revenue surged by 40% to 1.243 billion yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of the company's online operations [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.24, 1.38, and 1.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33, 30, and 27 times [9]

2025 年 04 月 03 日 拓普集团：Tier 0.5 级汽车+机器人供应商，拓 全球目光，普平台科技 买入(首次) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-03 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 56.61 | | 总市值（亿元） | 984 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 31.06-74.73 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1225.39 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 拓普集团 沪深300 相关研究 —拓普集团（601689.SH）公司深度报告 ▌多次把握时代机遇，铸就 Tier0.5 级供应商 公司成立于 1983 年，早期配套北京吉普及一汽大众等客户，后在 2001 年进入国际配套市场；在合资品牌主导时代，公司把握零部件国 产化机遇，与上汽通用等客户深度合作；后在自主品牌成长期，公司 依托以吉利为代表的大客户持续扩张；新能 ...

买入(首次) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-03 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 56.61 | | 总市值（亿元） | 984 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 31.06-74.73 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1225.39 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 拓普集团 沪深300 相关研究 —拓普集团（601689.SH）公司深度报告 ▌多次把握时代机遇，铸就 Tier0.5 级供应商 2025 年 04 月 03 日 拓普集团：Tier 0.5 级汽车+机器人供应商，拓 全球目光，普平台科技 公司成立于 1983 年，早期配套北京吉普及一汽大众等客户，后在 2001 年进入国际配套市场；在合资品牌主导时代，公司把握零部件国 产化机遇，与上汽通用等客户深度合作；后在自主品牌成长期，公司 依托以吉利为代表的大客户持续扩张；新能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but there are expectations for new product launches to drive growth [1] - The company reported total revenue and net profit of 1.732 billion and 103 million yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year declines of 11% and 43% respectively [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix with new product developments, including unique offerings that align with regional culture and health trends [7] - The company is deepening its market presence in the Greater Bay Area and steadily expanding new distribution channels [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of the year as consumer spending policies take effect [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit were 1.732 billion and 103 million yuan, with declines of 11% and 43% year-on-year [6] - The fourth quarter saw total revenue and net profit of 429 million and 22 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9% and -42% respectively [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.31%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product Development - Revenue from liquid milk, flavored milk, and yogurt drinks in 2024 was 6.46 billion, 3.32 billion, and 7.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 14%, 14%, and 7% respectively [7] - The company launched several new products, including Chenpi yogurt and fresh milk pudding, which have shown promising performance [7] Market Strategy - The company achieved offline and online revenues of 1.426 billion and 306 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year declines of 13% and 3% respectively [8] - The company has increased its number of distributors to 648, primarily in the Pearl River Delta region, and is actively expanding into new channels [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.84, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 15 [10]