电力设备及新能源周报 20250413 3 月新能源车交付量强劲，南网千亿级投资赋能广东 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 本周（20250407-20250411）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周下跌 8.09%，涨跌幅排名第 31，弱于上证指数。 本周风力发电指数跌幅最小，太阳能指数跌幅最大。风力发电指数下跌 3.53%， 储能指数下跌 7.87%，核电指数下跌 7.96%，新能源汽车指数下跌 8.07%，工 控自动化下跌 8.19%，锂电池指数下跌 8.21%，太阳能指数下跌 9.28%。 ➢ 新能源车：3 月新势力销量公布，零跑、小鹏强势增长 2025 年 3 月，多个造车新势力和传统车企交付数据表现强劲，推动新能源汽 车市场持续增长。理想汽车凭借 L 系列的稳定增长，3 月交付 36674 辆，一季 度交付 92864 辆，累计交付超 122 万辆；零跑汽车领跑新势力销量，3 月交付 37095 辆，一季度交付近 9 万辆；蔚来、小鹏、极氪等品牌也均实现显著增长， 其中蔚来 3 月交付 15039 辆；小鹏 3 月交付 33205 辆；极氪一季度交付超 4 万辆，同比增长125.2%。此外， ...

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.194 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan, down 87.60% year-on-year [1] - The company is a leader in the ductile iron pipe industry and is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a significant project in Egypt [2][3] - The demand for ductile iron pipes is expected to grow due to urban pipeline renovation projects, with an estimated total investment of around 4 trillion yuan over the next five years [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 8.2164 million tons of cast iron and steel, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with specific product sales showing varied performance [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 5.40%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 9.114 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.16% and a year-on-year increase of 31.48% [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a production capacity of 3.2 million tons for cast iron and pipe castings, maintaining a leading position globally [2] - The company has increased its focus on key markets, with a 29% increase in export sales and over 300,000 tons of new cast iron contracts signed in 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of 396 million yuan, 584 million yuan, and 784 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 22, and 17 [4] - The anticipated growth in urban pipeline construction is expected to provide new opportunities for the domestic cast iron market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with revenue of 8.484 billion and a net profit of 112 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.06% and 69.18% respectively [1][5]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by growth in high-end products and contributions from the high-temperature alloy sector [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's special steel sales were 453,200 tons, down 8.96% year-on-year, with specific product sales showing varied performance [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 12.71%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.05 billion, a decrease of 4.97% quarter-on-quarter and 10.87% year-on-year, with a net profit of -204 million [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company has invested in new equipment, with 35 new devices launched in 2024, enhancing production capabilities for high-end special steel materials [4]. - The high-temperature alloy sector is expected to contribute significantly to future growth, driven by increased demand in defense and aerospace industries [4]. - The company aims to optimize its product mix, with a 14.25% year-on-year increase in orders for high-end products in 2024 [4]. Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 369 million, 461 million, and 561 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 29x, 23x, and 19x [6][10].

➢ 那么，如何解读本轮关税豁免？ ➢ 首先，豁免不是政策大转向。根据美国白宫和海关文件，这一次豁免只是对 4 月 2 日对等关税豁免条款的进一步细化和落地：4 月 2 日文件中 3（b）条款 明确说明"铜、药品、半导体、木材制品、某些关键矿物以及能源和能源产品" 不征收对等关税。 ➢ 从具体豁免的产品上看，主要是电子产品。包括自动数据处理器、智能手机、 计算机设备，以及芯片半导体等；此外，本轮关税豁免适用于所有受到特朗普"对 等关税"影响的国家，对中国并没有区别对待、平等享受豁免。 ➢ 当然值得注意的是，新公布的清单扩容了豁免内容。我们对比 4 月 2 日文件 的附件和美国白宫公布的最新豁免代码，图 2 中从自动数据处理设备（计算机 等）到显示器均为新增的内容。这可能体现了来自美国国内压力的影响：企业游 说、资本的力量，抑或担心对终端消费的影响（比如手机）。 美国政策点评 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 关税豁免的"减震"信号有多强？ 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 从"闪电战式"的极限征税，再到暂缓关税、推出豁免清单，还是熟悉的味 道。但特朗普真的 ...

A 股策略周报 20250413 旧秩序的瓦解与新秩序的构建 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 黄金新高背后：旧秩序瓦解的引子。在过去由私人部门信用风险引发的危 机中，由于美国秩序背书的美元信用并未受损，是真正意义上信用和流动性层 面的安全资产，曾经美元对一切资产进行计价，以 2020 年 3 月和 2008 年 9 月 为例，都会出现美元上涨而包含黄金在内的一切资产下跌的过程。当特朗普政 府决意通过加征关税等手段逆转美国贸易逆差，那么过去美国凭借其稳定的美 元信用持续对外输出贸易逆差，而海外顺差国也因贸易、资产配置等需求不断 增持美股与美债等美元资产的贸易与金融体系的循环开始出现裂口，伴随当下 美国本身历史高位的赤字率与政府债务水平，美元信用开始动摇，美债大幅走 弱，金融系统不稳定性抬升，黄金开始为一切进行计价，即成为危机中唯一表 现稳定且强势的资产，与其它资产的关系开始呈现类似于此前美元的特征。那 么，黄金的上涨则是本轮美国制造的危机在深入的最好指示，黄金的回落可能 标志着危机的阶段性缓和，美元本身出现流动性危机的概率较低。 ➢ 在秩序瓦解的混沌期，各类资产的压力与机会。当美元系统性走弱，以美 元计价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sectors, including CATL, Keda, Zhongke Electric, Hunan YN, Dongfang Cable, and Mingyang Electric [5][6]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market shows strong growth, with significant delivery increases from various manufacturers, including Li Auto, Leap Motor, NIO, and BYD, indicating a competitive landscape [2][11]. - The Hi-MO 9 solar module from LONGi has secured a major project in Europe, showcasing its high efficiency and potential to enhance energy generation while reducing land use [3][35]. - Southern Power Grid is investing over 100 billion yuan in Guangdong to develop a new energy system, significantly increasing power transmission capacity in the region [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In March 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported strong delivery numbers, with Li Auto delivering 36,674 units, Leap Motor 37,095 units, and BYD leading with 377,420 units [2][11][21]. - The overall trend in the new energy vehicle market is positive, with significant year-on-year growth across various brands [2][11]. Photovoltaics - The Hi-MO 9 solar module, based on advanced HPBC 2.0 technology, has been selected for a major project in Europe, with a power output of up to 660W and a conversion efficiency of 24.43% [3][35]. - This project is expected to generate approximately 360 GWh of green electricity annually, significantly contributing to carbon emission reductions [38]. Electric Power Equipment and Automation - Southern Power Grid's investment strategy aims to enhance the new energy system in Guangdong, with projects like offshore wind power and pumped storage hydropower being accelerated [4]. - The investment will increase the power transmission capacity from 15.5 million kW to 32.66 million kW in the eastern and western regions of Guangdong [4]. Market Performance - The electric power equipment and new energy sector experienced an 8.09% decline in the week of April 7-11, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. - Among the sub-sectors, the wind power index saw the smallest decline at 3.53%, while the solar energy index faced the largest drop at 9.28% [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: battery segment leaders like CATL, companies benefiting from the 4680 technology iteration, and firms developing solid-state batteries [25][43].

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.194 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan, down 87.60% year-on-year [1] - The company is a leader in the ductile iron pipe industry and is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a current production capacity of 3.2 million tons [2][3] - The demand for ductile iron pipes is expected to gradually increase due to urban pipeline renovation projects, with an estimated total investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan over the next five years [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 8.2164 million tons of cast pipes and steel, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with specific product sales showing a decline in cast pipes and common steel but an increase in special steel [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 5.40%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, with the fourth quarter showing a gross profit margin of 4.84% [2] - The company experienced significant impairment losses, which negatively impacted its financial performance [2] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from domestic urban pipeline renovation, with a projected net profit of 396 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 136.5% [4] - The company has secured over 300,000 tons of new cast pipe contracts in 2024, with a year-end contract reserve of over 130,000 tons [3] Investment Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 396 million yuan, 584 million yuan, and 784 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 33, 22, and 17 [4]

电力及公用事业行业周报(25WK15) 虚拟电厂顶层指导意见出台，甘肃现货价格上涨 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 本周（20250407-20250411）电力板块行情：本周电力板块走势优于大盘。 截至 2025 年 04 月 11 日，本周公用事业板块收于 2278.57 点，下跌 68.42 点， 跌幅 2.92%；电力子板块收于 3044.54 点，下跌 84.89 点，跌幅 2.71%，低于 沪深 300 本周跌幅。公用事业（电力）板块涨跌幅在申万 31 个一级板块中排第 10 位。本周水力发电表现最优，水力发电上涨 0.88%，光伏发电下跌 7.06%， 风力发电下跌 3.53%，热力服务下跌 7.75%，火力发电下跌 4.51%。 ➢ 本周专题：近日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发 展的指导意见》，提出加快提升虚拟电厂的发展规模和水平，充分发挥调节作用。 坚持开放包容，健全支持虚拟电厂发展的政策和市场体系。坚持多元参与，鼓励 民营企业等各类社会资本结合自身优势参与虚拟电厂投资、建设和运营。《意见》 提出，虚拟电厂是聚合分布式电源、可调节负荷、储能等各类分散资源，作为新 ...

电力及公用事业行业周报(25WK15) 虚拟电厂顶层指导意见出台，甘肃现货价格上涨 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 本周（20250407-20250411）电力板块行情：本周电力板块走势优于大盘。 截至 2025 年 04 月 11 日，本周公用事业板块收于 2278.57 点，下跌 68.42 点， 跌幅 2.92%；电力子板块收于 3044.54 点，下跌 84.89 点，跌幅 2.71%，低于 沪深 300 本周跌幅。公用事业（电力）板块涨跌幅在申万 31 个一级板块中排第 10 位。本周水力发电表现最优，水力发电上涨 0.88%，光伏发电下跌 7.06%， 风力发电下跌 3.53%，热力服务下跌 7.75%，火力发电下跌 4.51%。 ➢ 本周专题：近日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发 展的指导意见》，提出加快提升虚拟电厂的发展规模和水平，充分发挥调节作用。 坚持开放包容，健全支持虚拟电厂发展的政策和市场体系。坚持多元参与，鼓励 民营企业等各类社会资本结合自身优势参与虚拟电厂投资、建设和运营。《意见》 提出，虚拟电厂是聚合分布式电源、可调节负荷、储能等各类分散资源，作为新 ...

大金重工（002487.SZ）2024 年年报点评 经营全面提质，向全球一流海工企业迈进 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 11 日，公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 37.80 亿元，同比下降 12.61%；归母净利润 4.74 亿元，同比增长 11.46%；扣 非归母净利润 4.33 亿元，同比增长 17.70%。 单季度来看，得益于公司 DAP 交付模式下的首批出口海工产品交付完毕，24Q4 公司实现收入 14.73 亿元，同比增长 48.55%、环比增长 55.07%；归母净利润 1.92 亿元，同比增长 1017.55%、环比增长 77.44%；扣非归母净利润 1.75 亿 元，同比扭亏、环比增长 80.81%。 ➢ 经营质量持续提升：盈利能力方面，公司转型海工业务主导的成果显著，毛 利率、净利率连续三年提升，2024 年实现毛利率 29.83%、同比提升 6.59pcts， 实现净利率 12.54%、同比提升 2.71pcts。其中，风电装备产品毛利率为 25.93%， 同比提升 5.37pcts。由于海外客户回款优质，且公司对国内业务加强回款管 ...