震裕科技 2025 年一季报预告点评 主业反转开启，机器人业务持续推进 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 13 日，公司公布 2024 年业绩快报和 2025 年第一季度 业绩预告。2025 年第一季度，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 6,900- 7,500 万元，同比增长 31.54%-42.97%；扣除非经常性损益盈利 6,000-6,800 万元，同比增长 57.30%-78.27%。2024 年，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净 利润 2.54 亿元，同比增长 495.99%，扣除非经常性损益盈利 2.32 亿元，同比增 长 2538.91%，公司主业反转正式开启。 ➢ 依托全球一流超精密机械零件技术能力在机器人精密零部件持续突破。公司 机器人精密零部件产品的研究和开发当前已取得显著进展，主要覆盖反向式行星 滚柱丝杠、线性执行器和灵巧手精密零部件等产品线。公司在 2024 年已具备反 向式行星滚柱丝杠设计、生产及检测的全套成熟工艺，建立了峰值推力覆盖 100N 到 12000N 范围、导程精度覆盖 C3/C5 的标品库，完成量产 SOP 验证，一周以 内能够完成样品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Views - The company has successfully secured a total of HKD 650 million in term loans from two banks, reflecting its strong financing capabilities as a state-owned developer in Guangzhou [1]. - Despite a 54.4% year-on-year decline in core net profit to CNY 1.59 billion due to impairment losses, the company reported a 7.7% increase in revenue to CNY 86.4 billion for 2024 [1][2]. - The company has a robust land bank of 19.71 million square meters, primarily located in first- and second-tier cities, which supports its future sales and revenue growth [2]. - The financing costs have been optimized, with a weighted average borrowing rate of 3.49% for 2024, down 33 basis points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 86.4 billion, a 7.7% increase from the previous year, while the gross margin decreased to 10.5%, down 4.8 percentage points [1][4]. - The core net profit for 2024 was CNY 1.59 billion, a significant drop of 54.4% due to impairment provisions totaling CNY 2.27 billion for development properties and CNY 1.63 billion for long-term assets [1]. Land Bank and Sales - As of the end of 2024, the company added 24 plots of land with a total construction area of approximately 2.71 million square meters, bringing its total land bank to 19.71 million square meters across 25 cities [2]. - The sales area for 2024 was 3.92 million square meters, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with sales revenue of CNY 115.4 billion, down 19% [2]. Financing and Cost Structure - The company has diversified its financing channels, successfully issuing a total of CNY 2.5 billion in bonds and debt instruments at competitive rates [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of CNY 87.4 billion, CNY 91.4 billion, and CNY 97.0 billion, representing growth rates of 1.2%, 4.6%, and 6.1% respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 12X, 9X, and 7X, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings are expected to recover [4].

24 年经营承压，静待后续改善 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 一季报，24 年实现营业收入 62.6 亿 元，同比-13.8%；实现归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比-34.0%；实现扣非净利润 2.0 亿元，同比-49.4%。单季度看，24Q4 实现营业收入 12.4 亿元，同比-23.8%； 实现归母净利润-2.1 亿元，前值-0.5 亿元；实现扣非净利润+2.2 亿元，前值+0.3 亿元。25Q1 实现营业收入 15.0 亿元，同比-11.5%；实现归母净利润 1.2 亿元， 同比-27.3%；实现扣非净利润 1.1 亿元，同比-32.1%。 ➢ 门店经营承压，拓店放缓，单店缺口修复在途。分产品看，24 年鲜货/包装 /加盟商管理分别实现收入 48.6/3.6/0.6 亿元，同比-15.8%/+29.1%/-26.3%， 鲜货业务持续承压，预计主因外部需求相对疲软下，门店端客流下滑，同时公司 拓店亦有所放缓 （24H1 门店数量净减少 981 家），单店缺口修复在途。分地 区看，24 年西南地区实现收入 7.9 亿元，同比-4.9%；西北 0.8 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has officially entered a phase of business reversal, with significant growth in net profit for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strong recovery [1][4]. - The company has made substantial progress in the research and development of precision components for robotics, achieving full sets of mature processes for key products [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and has plans to build additional automated production lines to enhance mass production consistency and stability [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first quarter of 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69-75 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.54%-42.97% [1]. - The net profit for 2024 reached 254 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 495.99%, with a significant rise in profit excluding non-recurring items [1]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 701 million, 836 million, and 960 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 253 million, 369 million, and 507 million yuan [5][9]. Production and R&D Developments - The company has established a semi-automated production line for planetary roller screws, achieving a daily output of 50 sets [3]. - A comprehensive testing laboratory for screws has been set up, enabling the company to independently verify key parameters [3]. - The company has successfully developed multiple linear actuator products and micro-screw products in collaboration with clients, demonstrating its strong R&D capabilities [2][3].

可转债周报 20250413 转债主体积极响应"回购增持潮" 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 转债周度专题 近期"关税战"再次对产业链和资本市场造成显著冲击，国内政策端积极引 导企业稳定市场信心，多家上市公司积极响应，市场迎来"回购增持潮"。 可转债主体上市公司范围来看，回购增持情况如何？ 回购方面，截至 4 月 11 日，已有 20 家主体公告近期股份回购结果，另有 18 家转债主体披露拟回购股份公告，包括山东路桥、兴瑞科技等，拟回购金额 上限为 51.8 亿元，计划回购金额较高的包括立讯精密、国投资本、闻泰科技、 等。从公司所属行业来看，本轮回购主力为汽车、电子、非银金融行业主体。 增持方面，截至 4 月 11 日，已有 9 家主体公告近期股东增持结果，另有 6 家转债上市公司股东拟增持股票，包括江苏国泰、新凤鸣等，拟增持金额最高的 为仙鹤股份。此外，上述主体中立讯精密拟同时开展股份回购及增持操作。 向后看，政策与市场的双重驱动下，A 股市场此轮"回购增持潮"或仍将延 续。这一现象不仅有助于优化资本结构、提升每股收益，在当前复杂经济环境中 亦将促进形成"稳预期、强信心"的良性循环，为资本市场注入韧性 ...

➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 84.84 亿元，同比 减少 1.06%，归母净利润 1.12 亿元，同比减少 69.18%；扣非归母净利 0.98 亿 元，同比减少 72.38%。2024Q4，公司实现营收 20.5 亿元，环比减少 4.97%， 同比减少 10.87%，归母净利润-2.04 亿元，同环比转亏；扣非归母净利-1.97 亿 元，同环比转亏。 ➢ 点评：量利回落承压，减值拖累业绩 ① 量：2024 年，公司特钢销量 45.32 万吨，同比-8.96%，其中合结钢、工具 钢、不锈钢、高温合金、其他钢材销量分别为 20.54、9.06、9.54、0.84、5.33 万吨，同比-20.28%、+32.06%、+1.52%、+4.08%、-23.19%。24Q4，特钢 销量 10.50 万吨，环比-4.55%，同比-24.73%。2025 年，钢材产量指引 51-53 万吨，同比增长 15.61-20.14%。 ② 利：2024 年，公司整体毛利率 12.71%，同比-0.80pct，其中合结钢、工具 钢、不锈钢、高温合金、其他钢材毛利率分别为 18.18%、-3.51 ...

非银行业周报 20250413 券商一季度业绩预喜，板块估值修复可期 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 上市券商陆续发布 25Q1 业绩预增公告，多业务条线边际改善。截至 4/11 已有 10 家上市券商发布 25Q1 业绩预增相关公告，国泰海通（350%~400%）、 东吴证券（100%~120%）归母净利润同比增速超 1 倍，中国银河（70%~90%）、 兴业证券（57%）、华泰证券（50%~60%）、华安证券（80%~100%）、中金公 司（50%~70%）、中信建投（50%）增速保持在 50%及以上。若不考虑吸收合 并后的国泰海通，且净利润区间按下限统计，则 9 家券商平均归母净利润增速达 到 48%。25Q1 市场交投热度保持高位，投行业务收入有所回升，各家公司公告 在说明 25Q1 业绩增长原因时，也相应提到财富管理、交易投资、投行业务收入 大幅增长。除自营投资外，其他业务条线也出现边际改善信号。我们认为，2025 年券商业绩修复向好趋势有望延续。 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 张凯烽 执业证书： S0100524070006 邮箱： zhangkaifeng@mszq ...

电力设备及新能源周报 20250413 3 月新能源车交付量强劲，南网千亿级投资赋能广东 2025 年 04 月 13 日 ➢ 本周（20250407-20250411）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周下跌 8.09%，涨跌幅排名第 31，弱于上证指数。 本周风力发电指数跌幅最小，太阳能指数跌幅最大。风力发电指数下跌 3.53%， 储能指数下跌 7.87%，核电指数下跌 7.96%，新能源汽车指数下跌 8.07%，工 控自动化下跌 8.19%，锂电池指数下跌 8.21%，太阳能指数下跌 9.28%。 ➢ 新能源车：3 月新势力销量公布，零跑、小鹏强势增长 2025 年 3 月，多个造车新势力和传统车企交付数据表现强劲，推动新能源汽 车市场持续增长。理想汽车凭借 L 系列的稳定增长，3 月交付 36674 辆，一季 度交付 92864 辆，累计交付超 122 万辆；零跑汽车领跑新势力销量，3 月交付 37095 辆，一季度交付近 9 万辆；蔚来、小鹏、极氪等品牌也均实现显著增长， 其中蔚来 3 月交付 15039 辆；小鹏 3 月交付 33205 辆；极氪一季度交付超 4 万辆，同比增长125.2%。此外， ...

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.194 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan, down 87.60% year-on-year [1] - The company is a leader in the ductile iron pipe industry and is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a significant project in Egypt [2][3] - The demand for ductile iron pipes is expected to grow due to urban pipeline renovation projects, with an estimated total investment of around 4 trillion yuan over the next five years [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 8.2164 million tons of cast iron and steel, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with specific product sales showing varied performance [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 5.40%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 9.114 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.16% and a year-on-year increase of 31.48% [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a production capacity of 3.2 million tons for cast iron and pipe castings, maintaining a leading position globally [2] - The company has increased its focus on key markets, with a 29% increase in export sales and over 300,000 tons of new cast iron contracts signed in 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of 396 million yuan, 584 million yuan, and 784 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 22, and 17 [4] - The anticipated growth in urban pipeline construction is expected to provide new opportunities for the domestic cast iron market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with revenue of 8.484 billion and a net profit of 112 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.06% and 69.18% respectively [1][5]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by growth in high-end products and contributions from the high-temperature alloy sector [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's special steel sales were 453,200 tons, down 8.96% year-on-year, with specific product sales showing varied performance [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 12.71%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.05 billion, a decrease of 4.97% quarter-on-quarter and 10.87% year-on-year, with a net profit of -204 million [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company has invested in new equipment, with 35 new devices launched in 2024, enhancing production capabilities for high-end special steel materials [4]. - The high-temperature alloy sector is expected to contribute significantly to future growth, driven by increased demand in defense and aerospace industries [4]. - The company aims to optimize its product mix, with a 14.25% year-on-year increase in orders for high-end products in 2024 [4]. Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 369 million, 461 million, and 561 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 29x, 23x, and 19x [6][10].